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    All Forums | Systems & Strategies

    How do you cap your baseball games?

    «First Previous 1234 Next Last»
    Jacoby
    lanastasis
    TheStugots
    morbe290
    gerbort
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    «First Previous 1234 Next Last»
     
    Jacoby
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    Posted: Jun. 10, 2008 - 2:46 PM ET #51

    lan, you you have Windows Essneger or AIOL messenger (AIM)?

    I am form the same region of Europe :) We could talk!

    It was Peter.
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    lan, you you have Windows Essneger or AIOL messenger (AIM)?

    I am form the same region of Europe :) We could talk!

    It was Peter.
     
    lanastasis
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    Posted: Jun. 10, 2008 - 4:18 PM ET #52

    I don't have either, sorry. I would prefer to answer any questions here. Who is Peter?
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    I don't have either, sorry. I would prefer to answer any questions here. Who is Peter?
     
    Jacoby
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    Posted: Jun. 10, 2008 - 5:13 PM ET #53

    okay ... Will you have picks today? I think your +65 unit rating is one of the best. The other one I liek is sammybeezy!
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    okay ... Will you have picks today? I think your +65 unit rating is one of the best. The other one I liek is sammybeezy!
     
    TheStugots
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    Posted: Jun. 10, 2008 - 6:15 PM ET #54

    wow Lanny I'm a little lost with that whole XERA thing. How can you tell what the XERA is for a particular pitcher against a particular team? For an example you posted today Conteras XERA against Detroit 2007-08: 6.97. Where the hell did you find that on that site?
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    wow Lanny I'm a little lost with that whole XERA thing. How can you tell what the XERA is for a particular pitcher against a particular team? For an example you posted today Conteras XERA against Detroit 2007-08: 6.97. Where the hell did you find that on that site?
     
    TheStugots
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    Posted: Jun. 10, 2008 - 8:19 PM ET #55

    Ok Lanny is there a reason I can not do a Web Query for the 2008 pitchers on https://www.xera-baseball.com/Xstat.htm? I also would like to thank you again for your info and time.
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    Ok Lanny is there a reason I can not do a Web Query for the 2008 pitchers on https://www.xera-baseball.com/Xstat.htm? I also would like to thank you again for your info and time.
     
    TheStugots
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    Posted: Jun. 10, 2008 - 8:34 PM ET #56

    Disregard the last 2 post. I got it to work. Thanks man!!
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    Disregard the last 2 post. I got it to work. Thanks man!!
     
    morbe290
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    Posted: Jun. 11, 2008 - 8:10 AM ET #57


    TheStugots or Lan, can you manage to get a web query from the Pitchers site(XERA)??? for me it doesn't come up with any yellow boxes.
    However i can get the batters info???? any thing i'm missing?

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    TheStugots or Lan, can you manage to get a web query from the Pitchers site(XERA)??? for me it doesn't come up with any yellow boxes.
    However i can get the batters info???? any thing i'm missing?

     
    TheStugots
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    Posted: Jun. 11, 2008 - 8:50 AM ET #58

    when you get to the pitcher info from pitchers08 and you do not get a yellow box click on the yellow box with the arrow next to the stop and refresh button in the top right hand of the web query page. Hope that sounded ok. any questions feel free to ask.
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    when you get to the pitcher info from pitchers08 and you do not get a yellow box click on the yellow box with the arrow next to the stop and refresh button in the top right hand of the web query page. Hope that sounded ok. any questions feel free to ask.
     
    TheStugots
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    Posted: Jun. 11, 2008 - 12:26 PM ET #59

    Not sure what kind of number you guys come up with, myself I come up with a money line, you may come up with a percentage of what a team may be against the other team. Either way this site may help. It converts your money or percentage line to one another.  https://www.smartcapper.com/cgi-bin/basic/index.pl?cmd=tools&tool=moneyline_converter&process=ml_to_prob&pom=plus&moneyline=102
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    Not sure what kind of number you guys come up with, myself I come up with a money line, you may come up with a percentage of what a team may be against the other team. Either way this site may help. It converts your money or percentage line to one another.  https://www.smartcapper.com/cgi-bin/basic/index.pl?cmd=tools&tool=moneyline_converter&process=ml_to_prob&pom=plus&moneyline=102
     
    gerbort
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    Posted: Jun. 11, 2008 - 11:09 PM ET #60

    Quote Originally Posted by TheStugots:

    wow Lanny I'm a little lost with that whole XERA thing. How can you tell what the XERA is for a particular pitcher against a particular team? For an example you posted today Conteras XERA against Detroit 2007-08: 6.97. Where the hell did you find that on that site?


    I'm wondering the same thing....any ideas?
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheStugots:

    wow Lanny I'm a little lost with that whole XERA thing. How can you tell what the XERA is for a particular pitcher against a particular team? For an example you posted today Conteras XERA against Detroit 2007-08: 6.97. Where the hell did you find that on that site?


    I'm wondering the same thing....any ideas?
     
    Spitfire15
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    Posted: Jun. 12, 2008 - 12:34 AM ET #61

    Holy shit, what a headache... I'm gonna stick to just tailing you guys
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    Holy shit, what a headache... I'm gonna stick to just tailing you guys
     
    lanastasis
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    Posted: Jun. 12, 2008 - 5:02 AM ET #62

    Quote Originally Posted by gerbort:



    I'm wondering the same thing....any ideas?


    XERA is not a top secret formula like the ingredients of Coke.

    You can calculate how a pitcher has done against any team by looking at their splits and using this formula.

    = (((HITS/GAMES)*0.575) + ((HR/GAMES)*0.94)+((BB/GAMES)*0.28) - ((K/GAMES)*0.01)) - 2.68
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    Quote Originally Posted by gerbort:



    I'm wondering the same thing....any ideas?


    XERA is not a top secret formula like the ingredients of Coke.

    You can calculate how a pitcher has done against any team by looking at their splits and using this formula.

    = (((HITS/GAMES)*0.575) + ((HR/GAMES)*0.94)+((BB/GAMES)*0.28) - ((K/GAMES)*0.01)) - 2.68
     
    gerbort
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    Posted: Jun. 12, 2008 - 8:11 AM ET #63

    Quote Originally Posted by lanastasis:



    XERA is not a top secret formula like the ingredients of Coke.

    You can calculate how a pitcher has done against any team by looking at their splits and using this formula.

    = (((HITS/GAMES)*0.575) + ((HR/GAMES)*0.94)+((BB/GAMES)*0.28) - ((K/GAMES)*0.01)) - 2.68


    Nice! Thanks Lan...have a killer time at the finals tonight!
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    Quote Originally Posted by lanastasis:



    XERA is not a top secret formula like the ingredients of Coke.

    You can calculate how a pitcher has done against any team by looking at their splits and using this formula.

    = (((HITS/GAMES)*0.575) + ((HR/GAMES)*0.94)+((BB/GAMES)*0.28) - ((K/GAMES)*0.01)) - 2.68


    Nice! Thanks Lan...have a killer time at the finals tonight!
     
    Jacoby
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    Posted: Jun. 16, 2008 - 8:35 AM ET #64

    I like the way that you guys are doing it. One little ting that could be useful.

    Calculate in to the capiing that wich team is hot whicsh is not, which SP is hot which is not. I dont knwo how many cents, but here is a site that can help us.

    https://www.armadillosports.com/mlb.html

    I think it has to be a 30-40% factor ...

    What do you think about it?
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    I like the way that you guys are doing it. One little ting that could be useful.

    Calculate in to the capiing that wich team is hot whicsh is not, which SP is hot which is not. I dont knwo how many cents, but here is a site that can help us.

    https://www.armadillosports.com/mlb.html

    I think it has to be a 30-40% factor ...

    What do you think about it?
     
    ResidinginReno
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    Posted: Jun. 20, 2008 - 1:39 PM ET #65

    This is a great post, I want to keep it on my favs. So I can read it when I have time.
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    This is a great post, I want to keep it on my favs. So I can read it when I have time.
     
    TheStugots
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    Posted: Jun. 21, 2008 - 5:34 PM ET #66

    Hey guys on the XERA site is there a spot Im over looking that has each team broken down or am I right that they only have 10 teams out of all the 30 MLB teams broken down?
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    Hey guys on the XERA site is there a spot Im over looking that has each team broken down or am I right that they only have 10 teams out of all the 30 MLB teams broken down?
     
    dharbour
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    Posted: Jun. 21, 2008 - 7:08 PM ET #67

    Can someone please explain to me how to read this XERA.
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    Can someone please explain to me how to read this XERA.
     
    tonktime
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    Posted: Jun. 24, 2008 - 12:29 PM ET #68

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    ad1260
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    Posted: Jul. 3, 2008 - 7:42 PM ET #69

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    m_angel175
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    Posted: Jul. 9, 2008 - 5:05 PM ET #70

     
     
     
                         ESTOY QUEMANDO LA LIGA DE LAS APUESTA
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                         ESTOY QUEMANDO LA LIGA DE LAS APUESTA
     
    MoneylineBABC
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    Posted: Jul. 9, 2008 - 5:34 PM ET #71

    I play baseball only on Saturdays and Tuesday/Wednesdays.
     
    I'm only looking for the second day of a series.
     
    Since there are, on average, at least 5-7 teams playing for sweeps on Sundays/Weds/Thurs.....I'll take my chances backing the winner of the first game of a series.
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    I play baseball only on Saturdays and Tuesday/Wednesdays.
     
    I'm only looking for the second day of a series.
     
    Since there are, on average, at least 5-7 teams playing for sweeps on Sundays/Weds/Thurs.....I'll take my chances backing the winner of the first game of a series.
     
    MoneylineBABC
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    Posted: Jul. 9, 2008 - 5:35 PM ET #72

    Quote Originally Posted by MoneylineBABC:

    I play baseball only on Saturdays and Tuesday/Wednesdays.
     
    I'm only looking for the second day of a series.
     
    Since there are, on average, at least 5-7 teams playing for sweeps on Sundays/Weds/Thurs.....I'll take my chances backing the winner of the first game of a series.

    If its a 2 or 4-game series, I'll simply pass....

    3-game series only

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    Quote Originally Posted by MoneylineBABC:

    I play baseball only on Saturdays and Tuesday/Wednesdays.
     
    I'm only looking for the second day of a series.
     
    Since there are, on average, at least 5-7 teams playing for sweeps on Sundays/Weds/Thurs.....I'll take my chances backing the winner of the first game of a series.

    If its a 2 or 4-game series, I'll simply pass....

    3-game series only

     
    GnT
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    Posted: Jul. 27, 2008 - 1:28 PM ET #73

    This is a question for the people discussing the on base percentage at the begining of the tread. I was wondering if at what point (if any) that batting average becomes a more accurate stat to use than on base percentage.  For instance, a game with 2 aces on the hill, who issue very few walks, and an under umpire w a large strike zoke.  When capping a game like this is it more accurate to handicap using average instead of on base percentage??  Just a thought, any input would be appreciated.
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    This is a question for the people discussing the on base percentage at the begining of the tread. I was wondering if at what point (if any) that batting average becomes a more accurate stat to use than on base percentage.  For instance, a game with 2 aces on the hill, who issue very few walks, and an under umpire w a large strike zoke.  When capping a game like this is it more accurate to handicap using average instead of on base percentage??  Just a thought, any input would be appreciated.
     
    lanastasis
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    Posted: Jul. 27, 2008 - 4:06 PM ET #74

    GNT -- I wouldn't call it completely useless, but batting average is mighty close to it. We have been indoctrinated by the confused media that this is the most important offensive statistic in baseball (along with homers, which actually are relevant) when in fact it is not even in the top 5. A high average hitter is useless if he does not walk and does not drive in runs (see Frank Catalanotto from his Blue Jays days.) On base percentage tells you everything that BA tells you, plus more because of walks/HBP. And a walk is absolutely equal in importance to a single which is what makes OBP infinitely more valuable than BA. I would never use BA for any capping purposes regardless of the pitchers, umpire or any other variable.
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    GNT -- I wouldn't call it completely useless, but batting average is mighty close to it. We have been indoctrinated by the confused media that this is the most important offensive statistic in baseball (along with homers, which actually are relevant) when in fact it is not even in the top 5. A high average hitter is useless if he does not walk and does not drive in runs (see Frank Catalanotto from his Blue Jays days.) On base percentage tells you everything that BA tells you, plus more because of walks/HBP. And a walk is absolutely equal in importance to a single which is what makes OBP infinitely more valuable than BA. I would never use BA for any capping purposes regardless of the pitchers, umpire or any other variable.
     
     
    GnT
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    Posted: Jul. 27, 2008 - 4:30 PM ET #75

    Yes the diference is very minimal. I use strickly on base percentage aswell.  I am going to try to back test this if i get time oer the next week or so, if not it will be offseason work.  The whole principal behind my thinking is that why take walks into account if you can estimate there will be almost 0 walks. or at least such a small amount of walks that it would be more accurate to leave them out of the caluculations.  In baseball especially the smallest things can help a lot, I believe you said baseball is the ultimate grind. Just a theory iv been thinking about
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    Yes the diference is very minimal. I use strickly on base percentage aswell.  I am going to try to back test this if i get time oer the next week or so, if not it will be offseason work.  The whole principal behind my thinking is that why take walks into account if you can estimate there will be almost 0 walks. or at least such a small amount of walks that it would be more accurate to leave them out of the caluculations.  In baseball especially the smallest things can help a lot, I believe you said baseball is the ultimate grind. Just a theory iv been thinking about
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