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    All Forums | Systems & Strategies

    HERE is how figure if totals are off and the spread when betting on NFL and NBA

    123 Next Last»
    dawniewags
    jwsone
    buntyketti
    dj_destroyer
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    dawniewags
    dawniewags
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    Posted: Nov. 26, 2010 - 2:09 PM ET #1

    OK my friends taught me this and it's so simple YOUR going to be pulling your hair out of YOUR head !

    Many people cried about the OVERS in MNF game Chargers vs broncos

    1st OFF realize that both teams ahd high scoriong games last higher than this game opened at 48  so every body had Chagers and OVERS i saw huge % on OVERS  !

     

    VEGas adjusted by adding 2.5 POINTs up to 3  and OVER was up to 50 1/2  and 51  some books went up to 52

    HERE it is folks basic math !

    Pts for 239 Chargers Pts against 197

    pts for 203 Broncos pt's against 252

    239 +197+203+252 

     

    add all 4 totals together YOU get

    891 

    bothy teams played 9 games

    891 divided by 18 = 49.5

    OMFG what did the game land ON  35 - 14 --- 49 points

     

    was the 10 pt spread correct ?

    YUP

    cahrgers were +42  points  Broncos were  - 49  points

    when you have two numers that are negative and positive you add them together  42 +49 = 91  Divide by 9 games played = 10.1

    OK now lets break it down more

     

    Chargers are +4.6 pts per game Broncos are - 5.4  pts per game

     

    add together to GET differnce between two objects or teams

    4.6 + - 5.4 =  10   that is the differnce between these teams from the 0 line

    looks like this

    + Chargers - - - --0- - - - --Broncos -

     

    ok now subtract smaller from larger number

    5.4- 4.6  = - 0.8   broncos

     

    add the 9.5 points in 

     

    charges are now - 4.9  Broncos are +4.1

     

    Chargers are now -0.8 points

     

    the spread is correct 

    obvioulsy a teasr will not work on broncos they lost 31 points

    wanna see if it would work  make charges a bigger chalk using 7 point teasr

    +4.6-  16.5 pts = - 11.9   -5.4 + 16.5 = +11.1 11.9 - 11.1 = broncos +.8  points

    super 13 pt teasers same results it's fucking algebra as long as you do same thing to both sides  YOU get same results

     

    make it simple for YOU Taese YOU feel that WINS the game S/U

    and watch YOUR teasers turn into more winners

    HOW many people Teased lions 13 points yesterday and LOST

    6.5 plus 13 = 19.5   sure enough lions D couldnt stop Pats offense

    and it was runaway in 2nd half

    OK NEXT post will be NBA  games it's differnt

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    To remove first post, remove entire topic.

    OK my friends taught me this and it's so simple YOUR going to be pulling your hair out of YOUR head !

    Many people cried about the OVERS in MNF game Chargers vs broncos

    1st OFF realize that both teams ahd high scoriong games last higher than this game opened at 48  so every body had Chagers and OVERS i saw huge % on OVERS  !

     

    VEGas adjusted by adding 2.5 POINTs up to 3  and OVER was up to 50 1/2  and 51  some books went up to 52

    HERE it is folks basic math !

    Pts for 239 Chargers Pts against 197

    pts for 203 Broncos pt's against 252

    239 +197+203+252 

     

    add all 4 totals together YOU get

    891 

    bothy teams played 9 games

    891 divided by 18 = 49.5

    OMFG what did the game land ON  35 - 14 --- 49 points

     

    was the 10 pt spread correct ?

    YUP

    cahrgers were +42  points  Broncos were  - 49  points

    when you have two numers that are negative and positive you add them together  42 +49 = 91  Divide by 9 games played = 10.1

    OK now lets break it down more

     

    Chargers are +4.6 pts per game Broncos are - 5.4  pts per game

     

    add together to GET differnce between two objects or teams

    4.6 + - 5.4 =  10   that is the differnce between these teams from the 0 line

    looks like this

    + Chargers - - - --0- - - - --Broncos -

     

    ok now subtract smaller from larger number

    5.4- 4.6  = - 0.8   broncos

     

    add the 9.5 points in 

     

    charges are now - 4.9  Broncos are +4.1

     

    Chargers are now -0.8 points

     

    the spread is correct 

    obvioulsy a teasr will not work on broncos they lost 31 points

    wanna see if it would work  make charges a bigger chalk using 7 point teasr

    +4.6-  16.5 pts = - 11.9   -5.4 + 16.5 = +11.1 11.9 - 11.1 = broncos +.8  points

    super 13 pt teasers same results it's fucking algebra as long as you do same thing to both sides  YOU get same results

     

    make it simple for YOU Taese YOU feel that WINS the game S/U

    and watch YOUR teasers turn into more winners

    HOW many people Teased lions 13 points yesterday and LOST

    6.5 plus 13 = 19.5   sure enough lions D couldnt stop Pats offense

    and it was runaway in 2nd half

    OK NEXT post will be NBA  games it's differnt

     
    jwsone
    jwsone
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    Posted: Nov. 26, 2010 - 2:34 PM ET #2

    Good read Dawnie, Can you add me on yo're friends list. I have some systems I would like to swap with you 
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    Good read Dawnie, Can you add me on yo're friends list. I have some systems I would like to swap with you 
     
    dawniewags
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    Posted: Nov. 26, 2010 - 2:34 PM ET #3

    NBA games are way differnt than NFL  scheduling plays imporatnt part

    YOUR Older teams when playing 4 games in 5 nights  and b 2 b  are daed meat home or away vs a younger team rested one night

    SO NBA YOU must use the totals of 5 home games vs 5 road games of visitor

    LETS look at an easy one  Lakers - 8  vs Bulls  3 nights ago

    Lakers just won huge game vs a bad team they were huge favorites 10.5 and won by 28 points win margin was 17.5 points providing Lakers with 4 st covers !

    games played and rested were Equal !

    OVER under was set at 201.5 

    way off  what game finsihed at 

    ok 5 home games of lakers totaled 561 - 503  .

    so they were + 58 points divide by 5 = +11.6  pts !

     

    Bulls were 477 - 494  - 17 pts  divde by 5 = -.3.4  pts !

    so difference bewteen two teams is 15 pts

    why are Bulls only getting 8 ?

    RED flag and it shows every time YOU have a team that won a game  by 21 points or more  next game fade them

    they will not cover the spread

    OK lakers + 11.6 Bulls - 3.4 means lakers are  + 8.2  points

     

    Bulls go to + 4.6  lakers drop to + 3.6  points  so BUlls are now +1  point 

    UHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH OHHHHH we have a bad line  bulls needed to be a way larger dog than +8  and make lakers a - 3.4 

    any way it went UNDERS and BULLS hit two free throws to COVER by a point at end of game

    UNDERS overs same thing  add all 4 totals together divide by 10 games played

    561 503 477 494 = 203.5  = 203.5  total was set at what ? 201.5

     

    uhmmmmmm vegas want YOU bet overs it clearly within the spread NOT when it';s too easy to GO overs GO under

    IF you break it down using lakers O  vs Bulls O 

     

    then D vs D 

    O vs D 

    D vs O  you will see you two ways to go under and two ways to go overs

    many times all 4 combos will show overs  and it will go overs

    any way thats it when YOU have lined games in any sport use these formulas and loook at schedules for flat spots in both NFL and NBA  and watch YOUR win % go through the roof !

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    NBA games are way differnt than NFL  scheduling plays imporatnt part

    YOUR Older teams when playing 4 games in 5 nights  and b 2 b  are daed meat home or away vs a younger team rested one night

    SO NBA YOU must use the totals of 5 home games vs 5 road games of visitor

    LETS look at an easy one  Lakers - 8  vs Bulls  3 nights ago

    Lakers just won huge game vs a bad team they were huge favorites 10.5 and won by 28 points win margin was 17.5 points providing Lakers with 4 st covers !

    games played and rested were Equal !

    OVER under was set at 201.5 

    way off  what game finsihed at 

    ok 5 home games of lakers totaled 561 - 503  .

    so they were + 58 points divide by 5 = +11.6  pts !

     

    Bulls were 477 - 494  - 17 pts  divde by 5 = -.3.4  pts !

    so difference bewteen two teams is 15 pts

    why are Bulls only getting 8 ?

    RED flag and it shows every time YOU have a team that won a game  by 21 points or more  next game fade them

    they will not cover the spread

    OK lakers + 11.6 Bulls - 3.4 means lakers are  + 8.2  points

     

    Bulls go to + 4.6  lakers drop to + 3.6  points  so BUlls are now +1  point 

    UHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH OHHHHH we have a bad line  bulls needed to be a way larger dog than +8  and make lakers a - 3.4 

    any way it went UNDERS and BULLS hit two free throws to COVER by a point at end of game

    UNDERS overs same thing  add all 4 totals together divide by 10 games played

    561 503 477 494 = 203.5  = 203.5  total was set at what ? 201.5

     

    uhmmmmmm vegas want YOU bet overs it clearly within the spread NOT when it';s too easy to GO overs GO under

    IF you break it down using lakers O  vs Bulls O 

     

    then D vs D 

    O vs D 

    D vs O  you will see you two ways to go under and two ways to go overs

    many times all 4 combos will show overs  and it will go overs

    any way thats it when YOU have lined games in any sport use these formulas and loook at schedules for flat spots in both NFL and NBA  and watch YOUR win % go through the roof !

     
    buntyketti
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    Posted: Nov. 26, 2010 - 4:13 PM ET #4

    hey i dont mean to undermine ur efforts. you truly are knowledgeable but care to elaborate more on how you explained ur nba strategy?

    so they were + 58 points divide by 5 = +11.6  pts !

     

    Bulls were 477 - 494  - 17 pts  divde by 5 = -.3.4  pts !

    so difference bewteen two teams is 15 pts

    why are Bulls only getting 8 ?

    RED flag and it shows every time YOU have a team that won a game  by 21 points or more  next game fade them

    they will not cover the spread

    OK lakers + 11.6 Bulls - 3.4 means lakers are  + 8.2  points

     

    Bulls go to + 4.6  lakers drop to + 3.6  points  so BUlls are now +1  point 

    UHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH OHHHHH we have a bad line  bulls needed to be a way larger dog than +8  and make lakers a - 3.4 

    any way it went UNDERS and BULLS hit two free throws to COVER by a point at end of game


    that part sounds really confusing !!

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    hey i dont mean to undermine ur efforts. you truly are knowledgeable but care to elaborate more on how you explained ur nba strategy?

    so they were + 58 points divide by 5 = +11.6  pts !

     

    Bulls were 477 - 494  - 17 pts  divde by 5 = -.3.4  pts !

    so difference bewteen two teams is 15 pts

    why are Bulls only getting 8 ?

    RED flag and it shows every time YOU have a team that won a game  by 21 points or more  next game fade them

    they will not cover the spread

    OK lakers + 11.6 Bulls - 3.4 means lakers are  + 8.2  points

     

    Bulls go to + 4.6  lakers drop to + 3.6  points  so BUlls are now +1  point 

    UHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH OHHHHH we have a bad line  bulls needed to be a way larger dog than +8  and make lakers a - 3.4 

    any way it went UNDERS and BULLS hit two free throws to COVER by a point at end of game


    that part sounds really confusing !!

     
    dj_destroyer
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    Posted: Nov. 26, 2010 - 5:13 PM ET #5

    I only read the NFL but it seems very simple; definitely got me thinking. Thanks!
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    I only read the NFL but it seems very simple; definitely got me thinking. Thanks!
     
    tapis2004
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    Posted: Nov. 28, 2010 - 9:59 AM ET #6

    based on this, should we be hammering the under in the gb atl game?

    gb pf 252 pa 146
    atl pf 256 pa 192

    total 846/20=42.3

    total set at 47.5

    and people are all over the over size
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    based on this, should we be hammering the under in the gb atl game?

    gb pf 252 pa 146
    atl pf 256 pa 192

    total 846/20=42.3

    total set at 47.5

    and people are all over the over size
     
    like2betmore
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    Posted: Nov. 28, 2010 - 11:17 AM ET #7

    thanks will take altanta under anymore other totals you see you like?  I could do the math but im not not smart too many numbers

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    thanks will take altanta under anymore other totals you see you like?  I could do the math but im not not smart too many numbers

     
    jaybosstein
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    Posted: Nov. 28, 2010 - 12:58 PM ET #8

    Can Someone Explain To Me Where Do Ya'll Get The Numbers From?  gb pf 252 pa 146
    atl pf 256 pa 192

    total 846/20=42.3

    total set at 47.5
    How Are You Breaking This Down To Get A 42.3?  Thank You
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    Can Someone Explain To Me Where Do Ya'll Get The Numbers From?  gb pf 252 pa 146
    atl pf 256 pa 192

    total 846/20=42.3

    total set at 47.5
    How Are You Breaking This Down To Get A 42.3?  Thank You
     
    redz
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    Posted: Nov. 28, 2010 - 3:20 PM ET #9

    Jay - PF = points for  PA = points against

    Totals for 10 games played by each team so far this year

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    Jay - PF = points for  PA = points against

    Totals for 10 games played by each team so far this year

     
    SKiLLsSoLoN
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    Posted: Nov. 28, 2010 - 6:22 PM ET #10

    I would like to understand this.

    First where are you getting these numbers and what does: ok 5 home games of lakers totaled 561 - 503  .
    mean?

    2 numbers??

    also is it just me or is:
    561 503 477 494 = 203.5  = 203.5  total was set at what ? 201.5

    bad math? Can you atleast show + or - or / or * ?

    Thanks, sorry for being a pain i just want to understand.
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    I would like to understand this.

    First where are you getting these numbers and what does: ok 5 home games of lakers totaled 561 - 503  .
    mean?

    2 numbers??

    also is it just me or is:
    561 503 477 494 = 203.5  = 203.5  total was set at what ? 201.5

    bad math? Can you atleast show + or - or / or * ?

    Thanks, sorry for being a pain i just want to understand.
     
    curly1973
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    Posted: Nov. 28, 2010 - 9:19 PM ET #11

    SKiLLsSoLon-  I just have to respond to your profile picture.  I assume your againest capital punishment.  They DON'T kill people to "show" people that killing people is wrong.  They kill people that deserved to be killed and to "show" people that if you kill people, you WILL be killed.  I'm not mad at ya, just curious to know what you think is proper punishment for someone that rapes, then kills someone?  I can answer that for you.  You think they should go to prison for the rest of their life.  Well, maybe thats the best place for them, cause people like that usually go to prison and kill other inmates in that prison.  Good population control for our prisons.  Hell, maybe you have a point.

    Also-561+503+477+494=2035      devide that by 10=203.5

    Hes sayin that the under/over should have set at 203.5.

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    SKiLLsSoLon-  I just have to respond to your profile picture.  I assume your againest capital punishment.  They DON'T kill people to "show" people that killing people is wrong.  They kill people that deserved to be killed and to "show" people that if you kill people, you WILL be killed.  I'm not mad at ya, just curious to know what you think is proper punishment for someone that rapes, then kills someone?  I can answer that for you.  You think they should go to prison for the rest of their life.  Well, maybe thats the best place for them, cause people like that usually go to prison and kill other inmates in that prison.  Good population control for our prisons.  Hell, maybe you have a point.

    Also-561+503+477+494=2035      devide that by 10=203.5

    Hes sayin that the under/over should have set at 203.5.

     
    jaybosstein
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    Posted: Nov. 28, 2010 - 10:33 PM ET #12

    Quote Originally Posted by redz:

    Jay - PF = points for  PA = points against

    Totals for 10 games played by each team so far this year

    Thanks redz, Now Were Is The -42, 49 pts Coming From On The Chargers/Broncos Game That Was Being Explained In The 1st Topic?
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    Quote Originally Posted by redz:

    Jay - PF = points for  PA = points against

    Totals for 10 games played by each team so far this year

    Thanks redz, Now Were Is The -42, 49 pts Coming From On The Chargers/Broncos Game That Was Being Explained In The 1st Topic?
     
    metslider
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    Posted: Nov. 29, 2010 - 10:12 AM ET #13

    I did the stats on this weeks games using just the PF and PA for the team at home if they were home and on road if the were on road. 

    So for example going into yesterday Chicago averaged 36.8 total in home games, Phil averaged 50.4 total in road games.  On average thats a 43.6 total.  That means the play would be over the 41.5 total posted on the game.  That would have been a winner.

    The games this week so far would be 11-3 with one game exactly on the number so no bias (sea-den).

    Conversely using the same theory Phi is an average of +16.8 on the road and Chicago is an average of +3.2 at home.  Differential is 13.6 in favor of Philly.  Line was Phi -3 so play would be Philly.  That would have lost.  Using the same method would have given you a 4-11 record ATS this week.

    Using this for tonight's game we have an avg total of 46.875 which would be higher than the 41 total posted now.  Also AZ has a 10 pt advantage so they should be the play against a +1 spread.  If everything goes as it has all weekend the play will be SF and the Over as we should fade the side and follow the total.
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    I did the stats on this weeks games using just the PF and PA for the team at home if they were home and on road if the were on road. 

    So for example going into yesterday Chicago averaged 36.8 total in home games, Phil averaged 50.4 total in road games.  On average thats a 43.6 total.  That means the play would be over the 41.5 total posted on the game.  That would have been a winner.

    The games this week so far would be 11-3 with one game exactly on the number so no bias (sea-den).

    Conversely using the same theory Phi is an average of +16.8 on the road and Chicago is an average of +3.2 at home.  Differential is 13.6 in favor of Philly.  Line was Phi -3 so play would be Philly.  That would have lost.  Using the same method would have given you a 4-11 record ATS this week.

    Using this for tonight's game we have an avg total of 46.875 which would be higher than the 41 total posted now.  Also AZ has a 10 pt advantage so they should be the play against a +1 spread.  If everything goes as it has all weekend the play will be SF and the Over as we should fade the side and follow the total.
     
    ridibets
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    Posted: Nov. 29, 2010 - 10:47 AM ET #14

    this doesnt work for the philly vs texans game.

    the line is at -9 and the calculation gives you 7. so is this a texans play then?

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    this doesnt work for the philly vs texans game.

    the line is at -9 and the calculation gives you 7. so is this a texans play then?

     
    gmisener
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    Posted: Nov. 29, 2010 - 10:52 AM ET #15

    Quote Originally Posted by metslider:

    I did the stats on this weeks games using just the PF and PA for the team at home if they were home and on road if the were on road. 

    So for example going into yesterday Chicago averaged 36.8 total in home games, Phil averaged 50.4 total in road games.  On average thats a 43.6 total.  That means the play would be over the 41.5 total posted on the game.  That would have been a winner.

    The games this week so far would be 11-3 with one game exactly on the number so no bias (sea-den).

    Conversely using the same theory Phi is an average of +16.8 on the road and Chicago is an average of +3.2 at home.  Differential is 13.6 in favor of Philly.  Line was Phi -3 so play would be Philly.  That would have lost.  Using the same method would have given you a 4-11 record ATS this week.

    Using this for tonight's game we have an avg total of 46.875 which would be higher than the 41 total posted now.  Also AZ has a 10 pt advantage so they should be the play against a +1 spread.  If everything goes as it has all weekend the play will be SF and the Over as we should fade the side and follow the total.


    Just using overall points for and against, the only notable games were GB/ATL and MIA/OAK.
    They both won.
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    Quote Originally Posted by metslider:

    I did the stats on this weeks games using just the PF and PA for the team at home if they were home and on road if the were on road. 

    So for example going into yesterday Chicago averaged 36.8 total in home games, Phil averaged 50.4 total in road games.  On average thats a 43.6 total.  That means the play would be over the 41.5 total posted on the game.  That would have been a winner.

    The games this week so far would be 11-3 with one game exactly on the number so no bias (sea-den).

    Conversely using the same theory Phi is an average of +16.8 on the road and Chicago is an average of +3.2 at home.  Differential is 13.6 in favor of Philly.  Line was Phi -3 so play would be Philly.  That would have lost.  Using the same method would have given you a 4-11 record ATS this week.

    Using this for tonight's game we have an avg total of 46.875 which would be higher than the 41 total posted now.  Also AZ has a 10 pt advantage so they should be the play against a +1 spread.  If everything goes as it has all weekend the play will be SF and the Over as we should fade the side and follow the total.


    Just using overall points for and against, the only notable games were GB/ATL and MIA/OAK.
    They both won.
     
    IC85
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    Posted: Nov. 29, 2010 - 1:53 PM ET #16

    "ok now subtract smaller from larger number

    5.4- 4.6  = - 0.8   broncos

    add the 9.5 points in        How are you adding in the 9.5 points?

     charges are now - 4.9  Broncos are +4.1

    Chargers are now -0.8 points

    the spread is correct "

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    "ok now subtract smaller from larger number

    5.4- 4.6  = - 0.8   broncos

    add the 9.5 points in        How are you adding in the 9.5 points?

     charges are now - 4.9  Broncos are +4.1

    Chargers are now -0.8 points

    the spread is correct "

     
    gasman33
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    Posted: Nov. 29, 2010 - 2:00 PM ET #17

    ....plays for tonight in NFL & NBA?


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    ....plays for tonight in NFL & NBA?


     
    metslider
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    Posted: Nov. 29, 2010 - 2:29 PM ET #18

    Quote Originally Posted by gasman33:

    ....plays for tonight in NFL & NBA?





    Using all games played

    AZ 18.8 pf + 29.2 pa
    SF 16 pf + 21.9 pa

    42.95 PPG with a 41 total, play is Over

    Using just AZ home games and SF road games
    AZ 26.75 PF + 29.25 PA
    SF 12.5 PF + 25.25 PA

    46.875 PPG with a 41 total, play is Over



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    Quote Originally Posted by gasman33:

    ....plays for tonight in NFL & NBA?





    Using all games played

    AZ 18.8 pf + 29.2 pa
    SF 16 pf + 21.9 pa

    42.95 PPG with a 41 total, play is Over

    Using just AZ home games and SF road games
    AZ 26.75 PF + 29.25 PA
    SF 12.5 PF + 25.25 PA

    46.875 PPG with a 41 total, play is Over



     
    gmisener
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    Posted: Nov. 29, 2010 - 2:31 PM ET #19

    SF for: 160
    Sf Aga: 219
    Ari for: 188
    Ari aga: 292
    Divided by 20 games

    Total = 42.95
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    SF for: 160
    Sf Aga: 219
    Ari for: 188
    Ari aga: 292
    Divided by 20 games

    Total = 42.95
     
    gmisener
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    Posted: Nov. 29, 2010 - 2:36 PM ET #20

    I'd be careful though. I found that totals that are within one or two points aren't always safe bets.
    The two plays I made on the weekend were 4+ points off the total posted.
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    I'd be careful though. I found that totals that are within one or two points aren't always safe bets.
    The two plays I made on the weekend were 4+ points off the total posted.
     
    verizonsam
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    Posted: Nov. 29, 2010 - 3:36 PM ET #21

    i have a question:

    for NBA, this is what i got from Miami vs Wash game:

    Wash Pts Scored: 476
    Allowed: 560
    Difference: -84/5 games = -16.8

    Miami Pts scored: 503
    Allowed 466
    Difference: +37/5 games = +7.4

    thus, around 24 pt difference. the line is Miami -12. since that's a big difference, does that mean take Miami or Washington?
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    i have a question:

    for NBA, this is what i got from Miami vs Wash game:

    Wash Pts Scored: 476
    Allowed: 560
    Difference: -84/5 games = -16.8

    Miami Pts scored: 503
    Allowed 466
    Difference: +37/5 games = +7.4

    thus, around 24 pt difference. the line is Miami -12. since that's a big difference, does that mean take Miami or Washington?
     
    JMon
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    Posted: Nov. 29, 2010 - 3:54 PM ET #22

    Very interesting.
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    Very interesting.
     
    kingofny2
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    Posted: Nov. 29, 2010 - 4:33 PM ET #23

    washington..
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    washington..
     
    IC85
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    Posted: Nov. 29, 2010 - 4:57 PM ET #24

    Using your system, here's what I come up with for tonight:

    SF@ ARI

    O/U   43  (Pinny has it at 41.5)         - No Play, too close

    SF     -4.5 (Pinny has them at -1.5)   - Worth the play, getting 3 pts

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    Using your system, here's what I come up with for tonight:

    SF@ ARI

    O/U   43  (Pinny has it at 41.5)         - No Play, too close

    SF     -4.5 (Pinny has them at -1.5)   - Worth the play, getting 3 pts

     
     
    broscience
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    Posted: Nov. 29, 2010 - 5:31 PM ET #25

    wow this is awesome...any nba plays?
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    wow this is awesome...any nba plays?
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