Posted:
#51
dj_d China is gonna own your ass too someday.
Good luck. I'm just messin with ya.
Good luck. I'm just messin with ya.
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Destroy the Books! *Double your Bankroll*
Posted:
#53
Can we keep this thread to pick related discussion please? If you want to offer some insight or advice, go ahead. You want to say whats up and let me know you're tailing, that's fine. But enough of this bullshit, it just clutters the thread. I don't care if you can't make the plays, not my problem. I post them before they start and with a line and unit, that's all you need.
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Posted:
#55
Quote Originally Posted by dj_destroyer:
Can we keep this thread to pick related discussion please? If you want to offer some insight or advice, go ahead. You want to say whats up and let me know you're tailing, that's fine. But enough of this bullshit, it just clutters the thread. I don't care if you can't make the plays, not my problem. I post them before they start and with a line and unit, that's all you need.
Can we keep this thread to pick related discussion please? If you want to offer some insight or advice, go ahead. You want to say whats up and let me know you're tailing, that's fine. But enough of this bullshit, it just clutters the thread. I don't care if you can't make the plays, not my problem. I post them before they start and with a line and unit, that's all you need. I CAN DIGG IT
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Posted:
#59
If you guys want a GREAT example of edges, take a look at that ticket I posted with my provincial sports lottery. Everyone knows these things to be a huge ripoff because it's mandatory parlays and the vig is always at least 50 cents.
Still, that doesn't mean you can't find value. If you look at the prices I got for each team vs. the closing prices on Pinny (plus 5 cents due to the vig), you can calculate an edge.
OLG............................True Odds..................Edge
Minny 1.7.......................1.69...................+0.5%
Dallas 2.0...................... 2.06....................-2.8%*
Richards 2.1...................2.30....................-8.6%*
Florida 3.0......................2.29...................+30.9%
*The reason we accept negative edges is because they are correlated where the Hockey Skater has historically been proven to hit at a clip of 55%+ if his team wins. Therefore we can take the win probability of Dallas (48.6%) and multiply it by 55% instead of 43.5% which is the actual win probability for Richards in tonight's situation vs. Datsyuk. To figure out the correlated probability, we factor Dallas' win prob which is 48.6% with 55% and we get 26.4% which correlates to a 3.79 (+279) payout. OLG is offering the pair at 4.2 (Dallas @ 2 x Richards @ 2.1). Therefore, we divide 4.2 by 3.79 (-1) = +10.82%
So let's re-arrange our chart:
OLG............................True Odds..................Edge
Minny 1.7.......................1.69...................+0.5%
Dallas 2.0/Richards 2.1... 3.79....................+10.82
Florida 3.0......................2.29...................+30.9%
Do the same calculations for the above and the parlay ends up with a 46.04% edge.
Using Kelly Criterion (BR:5k Div: 10), suggested bet size is $11.
When we have different markets (OLG vs. offshore/Vegas), the wagering of edges can be systematic. We find weaknesses and we expose. Every edge, every day, every month, all year, every year.
Still, that doesn't mean you can't find value. If you look at the prices I got for each team vs. the closing prices on Pinny (plus 5 cents due to the vig), you can calculate an edge.
OLG............................True Odds..................Edge
Minny 1.7.......................1.69...................+0.5%
Dallas 2.0...................... 2.06....................-2.8%*
Richards 2.1...................2.30....................-8.6%*
Florida 3.0......................2.29...................+30.9%
*The reason we accept negative edges is because they are correlated where the Hockey Skater has historically been proven to hit at a clip of 55%+ if his team wins. Therefore we can take the win probability of Dallas (48.6%) and multiply it by 55% instead of 43.5% which is the actual win probability for Richards in tonight's situation vs. Datsyuk. To figure out the correlated probability, we factor Dallas' win prob which is 48.6% with 55% and we get 26.4% which correlates to a 3.79 (+279) payout. OLG is offering the pair at 4.2 (Dallas @ 2 x Richards @ 2.1). Therefore, we divide 4.2 by 3.79 (-1) = +10.82%
So let's re-arrange our chart:
OLG............................True Odds..................Edge
Minny 1.7.......................1.69...................+0.5%
Dallas 2.0/Richards 2.1... 3.79....................+10.82
Florida 3.0......................2.29...................+30.9%
Do the same calculations for the above and the parlay ends up with a 46.04% edge.
Using Kelly Criterion (BR:5k Div: 10), suggested bet size is $11.
When we have different markets (OLG vs. offshore/Vegas), the wagering of edges can be systematic. We find weaknesses and we expose. Every edge, every day, every month, all year, every year.
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Posted:
#62
- Because on Proline, Florida was a 30.9% edge. I thought Calgary was probably going to win, afterall, they had a 56.4% win prob and were at home to Florida.
- In general, on the Streak Survivor/Ultimate Race -- I blindly hammer favourites because they have a higher probability of winning.
- If you miss one day, it's over for the Ultimate Race (I missed Tuesday + Wednesday) so now I don't care if I did care at all to begin with.
- The prizes aren't worth the time investment.
- "Free plays" are too easy to just click away... In other words, if I don't post it, I haven't played it -- If I haven't backed it with my own money, neither should you.
- As a personal note, I should get more serious about them. It's always nice to have good records posted everywhere. But in that case, I would start a new account all over again. I'm a perfectionist at times so if I was trying to be perfect, I would go all out.
- In general, on the Streak Survivor/Ultimate Race -- I blindly hammer favourites because they have a higher probability of winning.
- If you miss one day, it's over for the Ultimate Race (I missed Tuesday + Wednesday) so now I don't care if I did care at all to begin with.
- The prizes aren't worth the time investment.
- "Free plays" are too easy to just click away... In other words, if I don't post it, I haven't played it -- If I haven't backed it with my own money, neither should you.
- As a personal note, I should get more serious about them. It's always nice to have good records posted everywhere. But in that case, I would start a new account all over again. I'm a perfectionist at times so if I was trying to be perfect, I would go all out.
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Posted:
#64
Quote Originally Posted by dj_destroyer:
Record: 8-3-0
Bankroll: $5991.80
Wagered: $1691.32
Returned: $2683.12
Net: +$991.80
ROI: 58.64%
_____________________________ ______ _____ ____ ___ __ _ _
Blues [-104] 2% -119.84 to win 115.23
Flyers -1.5 [+175] 2% -119.84 to win 209.72
Record: 8-3-0
Bankroll: $5991.80
Wagered: $1691.32
Returned: $2683.12
Net: +$991.80
ROI: 58.64%
_____________________________ ______ _____ ____ ___ __ _ _
Blues [-104] 2% -119.84 to win 115.23
Flyers -1.5 [+175] 2% -119.84 to win 209.72
Record: 8-5-0
Bankroll: $5752.12
Wagered: $1931
Returned: $2683.12
Net: +$752.12
ROI: 38.95%
_____________________________ ______ _____ ____ ___ __ _ _
Avalanche [+133] 3% -172.56 to win 229.5
Blue Jackets [-101] 3% -172.56 to win 170.85
Canucks [+103] 2% -115.04 to win 119.49
Brugge [+123] 2% -115.04 to win 141.5
Eindhoven [+121] 2% -115.04 to win 139.2
Dublin [+120] 2% -115.04 to win 138.05
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Posted:
#67
I know I said I was going to post the leagues but then I screwed up trying to format it nicely and it took me off this page so I lost what I had written... Now I'm mad at naming the leagues so I won't be doing it. Like I said, I lay the line and unit for each play, the rest is up to you.
But for the record, Dublin is in the Ireland Premier and Eindhoven is in Holland's First Division.
But for the record, Dublin is in the Ireland Premier and Eindhoven is in Holland's First Division.
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Posted:
#70
bet365.com has every soccer game imaginable
Funny as hell, just called my betUS account manager and asked why they don't have the lines on certain soccer games. He told me about bet365.com
"I could lose my job for this, go to.... No. I'm not doing it. "
Pause for about 5 seconds, then suddenly in a whisper voice "bet365.com" and he quickly hang up on me
Sweet 
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