Posted:
#176
u seemed to do good with it. if that isant it tell me your system cause you are making money
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Basketball over / under system
Posted:
#182
Quote Originally Posted by jbrent95:
Calin,
Do you mind sharing your system or spreadsheet?
The odds for basketball totals are usually -110, right? That means 52% in terms of probability.
So if we play the totals where the chances are higher than 53% we have value and we should make some profit in the long term.
So I am estimating the chances (roughly estimate) for over/under using the overall over/under statistics and play the games where the chances are 55% and higher.
If chances are between 46-54% but I find a major trend that points out 65% chances or higher for over or under I play that total. Major trends means a trend that's significant (long period of time and big number of situations, at least 30).
For instance, under is 41-17 in Virginia's last 58 (70%) as an underdog and 36-17 (83%) in Virginia's last 43 as a road underdog. For the home team (Clemson) I haven't found a significant trend going against under so I'll take the under.
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Posted:
#183
Other example: Weber St. at Montana St.
Weber is 16-7 over in overall games (69% over)
Montana is 11-13 over in overall games (45%).
Roughly estimate would be 57% chances for over and if the bookie pays 100 for 110, why not?
And besides these roughly estimates I also found that Weber is 39-15 over (72%) in its last 54 versus Big Sky and they are also 23-11 over (67%) in its last 34 as a favourite of -0.5 to -6.5 points.
These numbers are telling me: PICK THE OVER!
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Posted:
#195
Quote Originally Posted by Hondo05:
Calinreddog,
how are you getting the over for mem-lac. i thought i calculated your system to work the under. i got 186 which is well below the total they are providing. where am i wrong (or do you have another philosophy on this one)? thanks.
Yeah, the philosophy is different, just read some posts above (#182 and #183)
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