All sports system plays.

Tues June 14

143-120-6 +50.24 54%

3 St. Louis Cardinals -147 (RF) Loser How can I sleep tonight after that.

3 Tampa Bay Rays -123 (HF) Winner

1-1 -1.41 units

144-121-6 +48.83 54%

That sucks, eh...you know, while i was typing my last post, i was about to say a chalky congrats on BOTH your negative-odds babies coming in...and saw that the Cards had blown what seemed like a comfy 6-run lead, turning a strong winning night into a moderate loser...

You're way up units-wise, tho...keep micro-tuning it till the all-star break...then overhaul it from the point of view of "knowing what i know now...if i were starting this system from scratch after the all-star break, what would i leave in, what would i leave out..."

But you gotta know, tophat...you're doin' great...your yield is way over 10% (that's like hittin' .300 in this game)...drop the fixation with the win% reaching 60%....you can do it, but it'll kill your yield...

you're doin' just fine...one of the best yields  i've found on covers or sbr...only improvement would be to filter/eliminate/disqualify LESS of your outputed plays...make the results more "robust"/the equity-curve more stable

that's why i urge you to consider at some point, say the all-star-break,...re-including elements that you previously (prematurely according to Kreatture) eliminated...everything you keep doesn't need to be great, just good (in terms of yield, not win%)

i'd rather have 49% wins and a 10% yield, than 60% wins and a 3% yield...psychologically the win/loss frequency registers stronger than the $ups/downs, but ultimately the win% has more to do with "sleepability" than "profitability"

1. Your system is just super. 10%-ish yeild and a nice sleepable winrate.

2.  If you filtered less, the variance would decrease, as the system would become more "robust"...# plays would go up from 2-3/day to say 5-7 (like in the early days of this thread when you still had the low-bangers and hadn't yet eliminated certain types of plays), but that's ok.  We'll have a less bumpy ride along the same growth path.

Goodnight th, and dream of anything except red birds rolling over and taking it up the ___in the late innings!!! 

Wed June 15

144-121-6 +48.83 54%

3 St. Louis Cardinals -115 (RF)

Good luck to all.

Great posts fitguy, excellent insight.

As far as the "eliminated" stats and systems go, I monitor them in my database and I will remove the elimination tag once they are greater than 55%. Technically I shouldn't even be betting the baseball plays at all since none of them are at or above 55% but it's the only thing going right now so WTF. I really don't filter much. I let the system do the talking and keep my brain out of the equation because my brain will just f**k things up.  My number one rule of gambling is don't think, let the numbers guide you.

Making adjustments is part of the process in developing a winning strategy. I only want the best plays backed by proven data. The more info I have in my database the more difficult it will be for a system to meet the necessary requirements, and that will take time. I need one full season of each sport to determine where I stand. Then I can review the data and make some changes.

The 60% dream is just that, a dream. I'd like to refer to it as a goal as is 100 units, but I'm in for the long haul so time will tell.

I am very pleased with initial results of the system. The system is now approaching 5 months and 300 plays which is a small drop in the bucket, lets see the numbers when we hit 12 months and 720 plays. The fun is just being.

I need a name for the system.

Go Cards!!!!!!!!!!

How 'bout "THE FORCE"...as in ObiWanKenobi's guidance to Luke Skywalker..."Use (meaning trust in) THE FORCE, Luke!"...you got your system of systems...u don't always like what it says to do (especially eat large amounts of chalk)...but do it, and you (and your followers...literally) will prevail over evil (ie. the books).

"Use THE FORCE, tophat!"...as for your followers, we must, along with you, use our seatbelts...cuz it's a guaranteed bumpy ride up the equity curve.

______________

Seriously tho', i'm glad we're on the same page, philosophy-wise...i was worried you were going to nervous-nelly over-prune your daily crop of picks by fixating on the 60% win-rate target.  Win rate is for "show", yield is for "go".

Of my favorite two fleshnblood cappers, Bodio has a markedly higher winrate, about 58% to compensate for more chalk inhalation...JTmonayyy manages the same 10%-ish yield as Bo with much lower winrate, about 50%. cuz he's always +odds...I like your system cuz it fits right in the middle of these two great benchmarks...same outstanding 10%-ish yield, with a "nice" 54% winrate with a balance between dogsnfaves...AND, it is mechanical/objective rather than flesh n blood/subjective, so it provides additional "diversification" over a pick selection "portfolio" composed of only fleshnblood cappers. 

Filters of the raw output are and essential part of any system...as long as they too (like the 55% winrate threshhold you mention above) are mechanically applied we'll have a crash-(but not "rattle"-)proof vehicle in place...lovingly called "THE FORCE".

Wed June 15

144-121-6 +48.83 54%

3 St. Louis Cardinals -115 (RF) Loser 

0-1 -3.45 units

144-122-6 +45.38 54%

Thurs June 16

144-122-6 +45.38 54%

3 St. Louis Cardinals -104 (RF)  

Good luck to all.

One thing to NOT call your system..."Spirit of St. Louis"...

[Quote: Originally Posted by fitguy67] One thing to NOT call your system..."Spirit of St. Louis"...

LOL! No shit. It's more like the curse of St. Louis. The Cards have single handedly destroyed my week. The Cards pitching stinks but I am pointing my finger directly at Lance Berkman. After his hot start he has hit the skids. He was like 0-10 with RISP in the Washington series, all in big situations. I dub thee ' the strand man'. Thanks Lance. I'll be sending you a return postage envelope because you owe me some cash. Prick.

Thurs June 16

144-122-6 +45.38 54%

3 St. Louis Cardinals -104 (RF) Loser again and again and again.

0-1 -3.12 units

144-123-6 +42.26 53%

Fri June 17

144-123-6 +42.26 53% (Super chalk Friday)

3 New York Yankees -159 (RF) This falls into one of me strongest systems which is 57 games above .500.

3 Cleveland Indians -142 (HF)

Good luck to all.

 

 Fri June 17

144-123-6 +42.26 53% (Super chalk Friday)

3 New York Yankees -159 (RF) This falls into one of my strongest systems which is 57 games above .500.

3 Cleveland Indians -142 (HF)

ADDING: 3 Toronto Blue Jays +139 (RD)

Good luck to all.

 

new to this forum...What's RF, HF and RD stand for? 

thanks.

Fri June 17

144-123-6 +42.26 53%

3 New York Yankees -159 (RF) Loser

3 Cleveland Indians -142 (HF) Winner

3 Toronto Blue Jays +139 (RD) Winner

2-1 +2.40 units a winning night!!!!!!! It's been a while.

146-124-6 +44.66 54%

** Guess who hit a 3 run double for the Cards tonight. F**kin prick.

fitguy,

Sorry but "The Force" does nothing for me, I'm not feeling it. Especially since the system has slowed somewhat lately, not much of a force at the moment. I appreciate the suggestion.

I can't believe the Yanks lost today, baseball is f**ked. They were the perfect storm today and what happens .

Cards just lost again.  Great night tonight.

Sat June 18

146-124-6 +44.66 54%

4 San Francisco Giants -105 (RF)

3 Washington Nationals -145 (HF)

Good luck to all.

Sat June 18

146-124-6 +44.66 54%

4 San Francisco Giants -105 (RF) Loser

3 Washington Nationals -145 (HF) Winner

1-1 -1.20 units

147-125-6 +43.46 54%

Sun June 19

147-125-6 +43.46 54%

3 Cleveland Indians -149 (HF)

3 Baltimore Orioles +127 (RD)

3 San Francisco Giants +101 (RD)

Good luck to all.

 Sun June 19

147-125-6 +43.46 54%

3 Cleveland Indians -149 (HF) Winner

3 Baltimore Orioles +127 (RD) Winner

3 San Francisco Giants +101 (RD) Loser

2-1 +3.81 units

149-126-6 +47.27 54%

Tally

5 7-4-1 63%

4 16-19-2 45%

3 109-89 55%

2 9-8 52%

1 7-7 50%

Complete breakdown

 

Baseball records

HF 12-8 60%

HD 8-9 47%

RF 13-16 44%

RD 11-16 40%

Unders 2-0 100%

Basketball ATS records

HF 2-3 40% Eliminated

HD 8-6 57%

H PK 0-1 0%

RF 14-11-4 56%

RD 49-32-2 60%

Unders 2-3 40% Eliminated

Overs 1-3 25% Eliminated

Hockey

HF 0-1 0%

HD 3-2 60%

RF 15-5 75%

RD 6-11 35% Eliminated 

Unders 1-1 50% Eliminated

Overs 0-0 0% Eliminated

Football

RF 1-0 100%

unders 1-0 100%

MLB RD's

+100 - +110 are 7-7

+111 - +140 are 4-5

+141 - +160 are 0-4

MLB RF's

-100 - -110 are 4-5

-111 - -120 are 6-6

-121 - -170 are 3-5 

MLB HF's

-100 - -110 are 1-1

-111 - -120 are 4-2

-121 - -130 are 3-2

-131 - -140 are 0-2

-141 - -170 are 4-1

MLB HD's

100 - +110 are 2-5

+111 - +120 are 3-1

+121 - +140 are 3-3

 

Week 1  14-15-1 -4.8 units 48%

Week 2  16-7 +21.85 units 69%

Week 3   9-6-1 +7.56 units 60%

Week 4     4-7 -12.99 units 36%

Week 5   13-9 +14.21 units 59%

Week 6    8-4 +13.20 units 66%

Week 7     9-9  -5.40 units  50%

Week 8      5-4  -1.91 units 55%

Week 9      7-3  +13.47 units 70%

Week 10    4-1   +8.70 units 80%

Week 11    3-9  -25.39 units 25% OUCH!!!!!!!!

Week 12     7-5   +5.88 units 58%

Week 13     8-4   +12.84 units 66%

Week 14      5-4   +7.76 units 55%

Week 15      3-4    -4.43 units 42%

Week 16      6-5   +2.35 units 54%

Week 17      4-4   -0.63  units 50%

Week 18      5-5   +0.37 units 50%

Week 19      4-5    -3.81 units 44%

Week 20      5-5    -0.16 units 50%

Week 21      4-5   -5.64 units 44% 

Week 22      6-7   -5.97 units 46%

6 straight weeks in the blue dropping -15.84 units