Posted:
#501
Tally
5 7-4-1 63% 
4 16-17-2 48% 
3 99-79 55% 
2 9-8 52%
1 7-7 50%
All sports system plays.
Posted:
#502
Complete breakdown
Baseball records
HF 8-5 61%
HD 7-7 50%
RF 12-11 52%
RD 7-14 33% Eliminated
Unders 2-0 100%
Basketball ATS records
HF 2-3 40% Eliminated
HD 8-6 57%
H PK 0-1 0%
RF 14-11-4 56%
RD 49-32-2 60%
Unders 2-3 40% Eliminated
Overs 1-3 25% Eliminated
Hockey
HF 0-1 0%
HD 3-2 60%
RF 15-5 75%
RD 6-11 35% Eliminated
Unders 1-1 50% Eliminated
Overs 0-0 0% Eliminated
Football
RF 1-0 100%
unders 1-0 100%
Posted:
#503
Week 1 14-15-1 -4.8 units 48%
Week 2 16-7 +21.85 units 69%
Week 3 9-6-1 +7.56 units 60%
Week 4 4-7 -12.99 units 36%
Week 5 13-9 +14.21 units 59%
Week 6 8-4 +13.20 units 66%
Week 7 9-9 -5.40 units 50%
Week 8 5-4 -1.91 units 55%
Week 9 7-3 +13.47 units 70%
Week 10 4-1 +8.70 units 80%
Week 11 3-9 -25.39 units 25% OUCH!!!!!!!!
Week 12 7-5 +5.88 units 58%
Week 13 8-4 +12.84 units 66%
Week 14 5-4 +7.76 units 55%
Week 15 3-4 -4.43 units 42%
Week 16 6-5 +2.35 units 54%
Week 17 4-4 -0.63 units 50%
Week 18 5-5 +0.37 units 50%
Week 19 4-5 -3.81 units 44%
Week 20 5-5 -0.16 units 50%
Posted:
#504
MLB RD's
+100 - +110 are 5-5
+111 - +140 are 2-5
+141 - +160 are 0-4
MLB RF's
-100 - -110 are 4-3
-111 - -120 are 6-5
-121 - -170 are 2-3
MLB HF's
-100 - -110 are 1-1
-111 - -120 are 4-1
-121 - -130 are 2-1
-131 - -140 are 0-2
-141 - -170 are 1-0
MLB HD's
100 - +110 are 2-4
+111 - +120 are 3-1
+121 - +140 are 2-2
Posted:
#509
tophat...you, along with Bodio and JTmonayyy are the cream of my covers crop...whatever ur doing keep it up...
after following along for so long but mostly in "non-cluttering" mode (others call it "lurking", lol)...i still haven't been able to figure out what the two letter acronyms (RD, RF, HF, HD) stand for
congrats on your excellent work!
after following along for so long but mostly in "non-cluttering" mode (others call it "lurking", lol)...i still haven't been able to figure out what the two letter acronyms (RD, RF, HF, HD) stand for
congrats on your excellent work!
Posted:
#519
Complete breakdown
Baseball records
HF 8-8 50%
HD 8-9 47%
RF 13-11 54%
RD 9-14 39%
Unders 2-0 100%
Basketball ATS records
HF 2-3 40% Eliminated
HD 8-6 57%
H PK 0-1 0%
RF 14-11-4 56%
RD 49-32-2 60%
Unders 2-3 40% Eliminated
Overs 1-3 25% Eliminated
Hockey
HF 0-1 0%
HD 3-2 60%
RF 15-5 75%
RD 6-11 35% Eliminated
Unders 1-1 50% Eliminated
Overs 0-0 0% Eliminated
Football
RF 1-0 100%
unders 1-0 100%
Posted:
#520
Week 1 14-15-1 -4.8 units 48%
Week 2 16-7 +21.85 units 69%
Week 3 9-6-1 +7.56 units 60%
Week 4 4-7 -12.99 units 36%
Week 5 13-9 +14.21 units 59%
Week 6 8-4 +13.20 units 66%
Week 7 9-9 -5.40 units 50%
Week 8 5-4 -1.91 units 55%
Week 9 7-3 +13.47 units 70%
Week 10 4-1 +8.70 units 80%
Week 11 3-9 -25.39 units 25% OUCH!!!!!!!!
Week 12 7-5 +5.88 units 58%
Week 13 8-4 +12.84 units 66%
Week 14 5-4 +7.76 units 55%
Week 15 3-4 -4.43 units 42%
Week 16 6-5 +2.35 units 54%
Week 17 4-4 -0.63 units 50%
Week 18 5-5 +0.37 units 50%
Week 19 4-5 -3.81 units 44%
Week 20 5-5 -0.16 units 50%
Week 21 4-5 -5.64 units 44%
Need a winning week in a bad way.
Posted:
#521
MLB RD's
+100 - +110 are 7-5
+111 - +140 are 2-5
+141 - +160 are 0-4
MLB RF's
-100 - -110 are 4-3
-111 - -120 are 6-5
-121 - -170 are 3-3
MLB HF's
-100 - -110 are 1-1
-111 - -120 are 4-2
-121 - -130 are 2-2
-131 - -140 are 0-2
-141 - -170 are 1-1
MLB HD's
100 - +110 are 2-5
+111 - +120 are 3-1
+121 - +140 are 3-3
Posted:
#525
As we see today...Nothin' wrong with chalk...as long as the batting average of the picks (chalky or otherwise) is higher than the break-even batting average implied by the odds...in other words, your cool "system of systems" is not designed to find winners today...they're designed to find VALUE (ie. to pick plays that'll give a W% better than 1/(odds in decimal format) over the long haul.
I recall earlier in the thread Kreatture had some very good comments about not being too quick to "cull" or "eliminate" some poorly-performing elements.
I'd like to echo this...and ask you to KEEP TRACKING those elements...cuz systems (just like different divisions of a company) "wax and wane"/"progress and regress"
thru time. I'd suggest whenever you disqualify something due to dropping below some performance threshhold, you leave the door open for it to re-qualify. This way you can "churn" your systems...track 'em all, but play only your best __% of them at a given time...I do something similar, very successfully with mutual funds, every 3 months re-aligning my portfolio to hold only the top ten in each class (see those that were relegated to buy those promoted, keeping those that hold their position. This is exactly how EuroSoccerLeagues are run, too...promotion and relegation). So something you've eliminated recently might earn its way back into your "real money" play-spinners, while the hot elements now can be dropped in the future if they get cold.
On a related note...you might want to reconsider canning the 1* and 2* babies althogether, as they might carry just as much value edge (w% vs. w%-implied-by-book-odds) per $-bet as their higer starred cousins.
With regard to a good criterion for relegation/promotion of various elements of your system, rather than the obvious win%, I'd suggest "yield" ($-net-return/total$wagered), as it more directly correlates with the 'edges" your system is trying to exploit.
Your overall methodology to date is VERY successful, tophat...even if all your star-weighted picks were bet flat at your avg #stars (about 3) and this were redefined as a unit...your current "mechanical system with occasional human-judgement overrides" is clearly outperforming (in terms of yield) the most consistent "flesh and blood" capper on covers (Bodio).
My comments about finding a way to SYSTEMATICALLY decide what, among your many elements, to include/exclude at any given time (via periodically-applied qualification/disqualification criteria) is in the light of polishing the vehicle you've engineered to this point.
At the all-star break, do a good "what if" analysis of ALL the realistic elements of your system...including (especially) those things that you eliminated earlier, and compare all candidates for inclusion on the basis of yield to decide what to bring back, what to keep, and what to dump for the remainder of the season.
This is a fascinating work in progress. Enough so to bring me out of my generally "lurking" mode (i prefer "non-cluttering" mode, lol).
I recall earlier in the thread Kreatture had some very good comments about not being too quick to "cull" or "eliminate" some poorly-performing elements.
I'd like to echo this...and ask you to KEEP TRACKING those elements...cuz systems (just like different divisions of a company) "wax and wane"/"progress and regress"
thru time. I'd suggest whenever you disqualify something due to dropping below some performance threshhold, you leave the door open for it to re-qualify. This way you can "churn" your systems...track 'em all, but play only your best __% of them at a given time...I do something similar, very successfully with mutual funds, every 3 months re-aligning my portfolio to hold only the top ten in each class (see those that were relegated to buy those promoted, keeping those that hold their position. This is exactly how EuroSoccerLeagues are run, too...promotion and relegation). So something you've eliminated recently might earn its way back into your "real money" play-spinners, while the hot elements now can be dropped in the future if they get cold.
On a related note...you might want to reconsider canning the 1* and 2* babies althogether, as they might carry just as much value edge (w% vs. w%-implied-by-book-odds) per $-bet as their higer starred cousins.
With regard to a good criterion for relegation/promotion of various elements of your system, rather than the obvious win%, I'd suggest "yield" ($-net-return/total$wagered), as it more directly correlates with the 'edges" your system is trying to exploit.
Your overall methodology to date is VERY successful, tophat...even if all your star-weighted picks were bet flat at your avg #stars (about 3) and this were redefined as a unit...your current "mechanical system with occasional human-judgement overrides" is clearly outperforming (in terms of yield) the most consistent "flesh and blood" capper on covers (Bodio).
My comments about finding a way to SYSTEMATICALLY decide what, among your many elements, to include/exclude at any given time (via periodically-applied qualification/disqualification criteria) is in the light of polishing the vehicle you've engineered to this point.
At the all-star break, do a good "what if" analysis of ALL the realistic elements of your system...including (especially) those things that you eliminated earlier, and compare all candidates for inclusion on the basis of yield to decide what to bring back, what to keep, and what to dump for the remainder of the season.
This is a fascinating work in progress. Enough so to bring me out of my generally "lurking" mode (i prefer "non-cluttering" mode, lol).
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