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    All Forums | Systems & Strategies

    A few MLB Systems

    «First Previous 123 ... 567 Next Last»
    jenjay23
    traderjoe13
    rivermonsterz
    bigdog56
    AppleMunch25
    ...
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    «First Previous 123 ... 567 Next Last»
     
    jenjay23
    jenjay23
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    Posted: May. 4, 2015 - 12:51 PM ET #101

    Very hard to give you accurate numbers on that through the past few years, my tracking on this one wasnt to hot. Last year I played it as somewhat of a "team clear" system, attempting to gain 60u by playing each team on both the O & U. Once a team qualified and cleared, I did not play that team again until all teams qualified and either lost or won the chase.  I figured this would of limited a bit of exposure and by chance if a team cleared before a streak avoid a potential loss. I had 4 chase losses and made +26u, losing ~8u on each 3 game chase loss. I re started the team clear at the beginning of July, won another 10u before ending it or stopped tracking and playing it as I had to many other irons going. I tried to evaluate after all teams qualified on both sides and looked at all the series i didnt play and felt there was more value in playing all series.....This year my goal is to play and track the entire season and then again evaluate the "best way to play".  Years before that I used filters of pitching ERA, WHIP, RS'd, RA and Field and Weather....Came to the conclusion that all those variables play into the number and line makers do their job pretty good, hence going back to the trend that by days end the O_U numbers will be pretty close to 50/50. I do know what you mean on the martingale chase...at least in this one you usually dont see anything > than -115
    GL
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    Very hard to give you accurate numbers on that through the past few years, my tracking on this one wasnt to hot. Last year I played it as somewhat of a "team clear" system, attempting to gain 60u by playing each team on both the O & U. Once a team qualified and cleared, I did not play that team again until all teams qualified and either lost or won the chase.  I figured this would of limited a bit of exposure and by chance if a team cleared before a streak avoid a potential loss. I had 4 chase losses and made +26u, losing ~8u on each 3 game chase loss. I re started the team clear at the beginning of July, won another 10u before ending it or stopped tracking and playing it as I had to many other irons going. I tried to evaluate after all teams qualified on both sides and looked at all the series i didnt play and felt there was more value in playing all series.....This year my goal is to play and track the entire season and then again evaluate the "best way to play".  Years before that I used filters of pitching ERA, WHIP, RS'd, RA and Field and Weather....Came to the conclusion that all those variables play into the number and line makers do their job pretty good, hence going back to the trend that by days end the O_U numbers will be pretty close to 50/50. I do know what you mean on the martingale chase...at least in this one you usually dont see anything > than -115
    GL
     
    traderjoe13
    traderjoe13
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    Posted: May. 4, 2015 - 3:05 PM ET #102

    thank u for the in depth response. so far the first 4 series have cleared on martingale. but i may just start todays series using a labby to lessen my exposure. i greatly appreciate you sharing your systems it helps newbies like me try to feel my way around. i am guessing since you double your bets (when both teams qualify as is the case with the cards /cubs today) then you have more confidence in those bets. 
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    thank u for the in depth response. so far the first 4 series have cleared on martingale. but i may just start todays series using a labby to lessen my exposure. i greatly appreciate you sharing your systems it helps newbies like me try to feel my way around. i am guessing since you double your bets (when both teams qualify as is the case with the cards /cubs today) then you have more confidence in those bets. 
     
    jenjay23
    jenjay23
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    Posted: May. 4, 2015 - 3:27 PM ET #103


    GL
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    GL
     
    rivermonsterz
    rivermonsterz
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    Posted: May. 5, 2015 - 3:41 AM ET #104

    Hey jenjay thanks for sharing yet another great piece of work.
    I just downloaded and had a look over it all, looks like the season is off to a reasonable start.
    Haven't had a bet yet this season, took some time off to spend some of the money we made from your NHL work that shared!
    Looking forward to getting back on the G train, thanks again for your what you have contributed.
    Also what version of excel would be best to run with this sheet?
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    Hey jenjay thanks for sharing yet another great piece of work.
    I just downloaded and had a look over it all, looks like the season is off to a reasonable start.
    Haven't had a bet yet this season, took some time off to spend some of the money we made from your NHL work that shared!
    Looking forward to getting back on the G train, thanks again for your what you have contributed.
    Also what version of excel would be best to run with this sheet?
     
    jenjay23
    jenjay23
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    Posted: May. 5, 2015 - 2:22 PM ET #105

    Hey Riv,
    I am using Excel 2010 and seems to work well.  I continue to see little bugs here and there with some of my formula's etc. so i continually update the links with fixes and current records.  With the exception of my W5fade concept which has been blowing goats, the others are somewhat trending in the right direction.  Hopefully by years end all the systems I am currently playing can show a profit to make it a nice season.  I know during the NHL season you asked about bD's Magna Carta and just wanted to let you know I posted a link in Degens thread on excel sheets, systems & tools....It has filters built in as you mentioned you liked Beefman's idea on win %.  I utilize those as well, but just slightly different.  I am currently sweating a G5 in the MC1 caused i messed up on not taking a +1.5 fading the Giants :(......other than that been pretty solid.
    The O-U is now 19-0.  Today 3 game A's starting a chase with CLE (Under), Pitt (Over) & MIL (Over) since LAD/Mil pushed yesterday and its a 4 game series I start the chase over, starting on the B game.
    GL this season
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    Hey Riv,
    I am using Excel 2010 and seems to work well.  I continue to see little bugs here and there with some of my formula's etc. so i continually update the links with fixes and current records.  With the exception of my W5fade concept which has been blowing goats, the others are somewhat trending in the right direction.  Hopefully by years end all the systems I am currently playing can show a profit to make it a nice season.  I know during the NHL season you asked about bD's Magna Carta and just wanted to let you know I posted a link in Degens thread on excel sheets, systems & tools....It has filters built in as you mentioned you liked Beefman's idea on win %.  I utilize those as well, but just slightly different.  I am currently sweating a G5 in the MC1 caused i messed up on not taking a +1.5 fading the Giants :(......other than that been pretty solid.
    The O-U is now 19-0.  Today 3 game A's starting a chase with CLE (Under), Pitt (Over) & MIL (Over) since LAD/Mil pushed yesterday and its a 4 game series I start the chase over, starting on the B game.
    GL this season
     
    bigdog56
    bigdog56
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    Posted: May. 6, 2015 - 1:22 AM ET #106

    Jenjay - Why was Tampa Bay/Boston not a play today.  Tampa Bay was coming off of 5 Unders in a row?  Actually they are coming off of 9 Unders in a row even! lol
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    Jenjay - Why was Tampa Bay/Boston not a play today.  Tampa Bay was coming off of 5 Unders in a row?  Actually they are coming off of 9 Unders in a row even! lol
     
    AppleMunch25
    AppleMunch25
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    Posted: May. 6, 2015 - 1:36 AM ET #107

    Quote Originally Posted by rivermonsterz:

    Hey jenjay thanks for sharing yet another great piece of work.
    I just downloaded and had a look over it all, looks like the season is off to a reasonable start.
    Haven't had a bet yet this season, took some time off to spend some of the money we made from your NHL work that shared!
    Looking forward to getting back on the G train, thanks again for your what you have contributed.
    Also what version of excel would be best to run with this sheet?

    where have you been? I have seen your posts, very informative.
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    Quote Originally Posted by rivermonsterz:

    Hey jenjay thanks for sharing yet another great piece of work.
    I just downloaded and had a look over it all, looks like the season is off to a reasonable start.
    Haven't had a bet yet this season, took some time off to spend some of the money we made from your NHL work that shared!
    Looking forward to getting back on the G train, thanks again for your what you have contributed.
    Also what version of excel would be best to run with this sheet?

    where have you been? I have seen your posts, very informative.
     
    jenjay23
    jenjay23
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    Posted: May. 6, 2015 - 10:30 AM ET #108

    bigdog,
    TB/Bos series did not qualify because in there first game of the series is where I determine if a chase is going to start. For it to qualify the opposing team to the team that has had 3 or more of the same result, also had to play their last game with the same result.  BOS came into the series playing their last game as an OVER vs NYY on May 3 hence not qualifying to start a chase in this concept.
    GL
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    bigdog,
    TB/Bos series did not qualify because in there first game of the series is where I determine if a chase is going to start. For it to qualify the opposing team to the team that has had 3 or more of the same result, also had to play their last game with the same result.  BOS came into the series playing their last game as an OVER vs NYY on May 3 hence not qualifying to start a chase in this concept.
    GL
     
    traderjoe13
    traderjoe13
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    Posted: May. 8, 2015 - 8:56 AM ET #109

    for friday looks like these are the over /under plays

    NYM/Philly Over
    KC/Detroit Under
    TX/TB Over
    Cubs/Mil Under
    LAD/Rocks Under

    anyone checking feel free to correct any mistakes i may have made  
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    for friday looks like these are the over /under plays

    NYM/Philly Over
    KC/Detroit Under
    TX/TB Over
    Cubs/Mil Under
    LAD/Rocks Under

    anyone checking feel free to correct any mistakes i may have made  
     
    jenjay23
    jenjay23
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    Posted: May. 8, 2015 - 12:18 PM ET #110

    Trader,
    Although those look like good games , not quite the way I play the over-under within this concept.  
    Today I have:
    Min/Cle - UNDER (A Game)
    Bos/Tor OVER (A Game)
    Bal/NYY OVER (B Game)
    I updated the sheet if you want to see the reasoning.  It looks like you looked at last three of a team being the same and opponents last game the opposite result, I look for opponents to be the same result of the >3 streak...example from your post.  NYM last 3 is U-U-U but Philly last game was O, I look for Philly to be an U for it to qualify....therefore that game doesnt.
    Hope that helps, first loss last night losing ~8u on chase.  System now 21-1 for +11.6u on season.
    Others... L4Dog is 11-7 (61.11%) for +6.37u  ,  COL a play today.
    W5Fade is 4-10 (28.57%) for - 5.11u , no plays today
    TopVRPI (Labby) 6-4 for +1u 

    GL
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    Trader,
    Although those look like good games , not quite the way I play the over-under within this concept.  
    Today I have:
    Min/Cle - UNDER (A Game)
    Bos/Tor OVER (A Game)
    Bal/NYY OVER (B Game)
    I updated the sheet if you want to see the reasoning.  It looks like you looked at last three of a team being the same and opponents last game the opposite result, I look for opponents to be the same result of the >3 streak...example from your post.  NYM last 3 is U-U-U but Philly last game was O, I look for Philly to be an U for it to qualify....therefore that game doesnt.
    Hope that helps, first loss last night losing ~8u on chase.  System now 21-1 for +11.6u on season.
    Others... L4Dog is 11-7 (61.11%) for +6.37u  ,  COL a play today.
    W5Fade is 4-10 (28.57%) for - 5.11u , no plays today
    TopVRPI (Labby) 6-4 for +1u 

    GL
     
    traderjoe13
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    Posted: May. 8, 2015 - 1:53 PM ET #111

    thank you for clarifying i think i was having a hard time understanding but you clarified it for me 
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    thank you for clarifying i think i was having a hard time understanding but you clarified it for me 
     
    jonny2k4
    jonny2k4
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    Posted: May. 9, 2015 - 10:09 AM ET #112

    Baltimore today
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    Baltimore today
     
    jonny2k4
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    Posted: May. 24, 2015 - 1:47 PM ET #113

    Cards
    Reds
    Padres

    Today sirs.
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    Cards
    Reds
    Padres

    Today sirs.
     
    rivermonsterz
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    Posted: May. 31, 2015 - 2:10 AM ET #114

    I have been off the punt for this season.
    It's cold and rainy over atm, so thought I'd treat myself and sit inside and watch MLB all weekend.
    Followed the spreadsheet for plays, got lucky going 5-1 for dog bets and 1-0 for RPI which was also a dog.
    How has the system been tracking over all jenjay?
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    I have been off the punt for this season.
    It's cold and rainy over atm, so thought I'd treat myself and sit inside and watch MLB all weekend.
    Followed the spreadsheet for plays, got lucky going 5-1 for dog bets and 1-0 for RPI which was also a dog.
    How has the system been tracking over all jenjay?
     
    BuckeyeKaptn
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    Posted: May. 31, 2015 - 10:10 AM ET #115

    Quote Originally Posted by jenjay23:

    Hey Trader,

     Each update downloads all the covers data so it takes a bit of time each morning (half hour to 45min).  I have been playing with Kaptn's idea of having a command to auto update at 5am or so, but havent had to much success.  Puter always goes to hibernate or gets hung up half way through or so and locks, I have had it fully update a few times but not always so still a work in progress.....Maybe Degen has and idea to speed up the process with some VBA magic? .  

    GL


    I figured it out.  First, you have to set so your computer doesn't sleep/hibernate.  Screen saver coming on is fine.  With the spreadsheet, you save and exit, and then bring it back up...but don't touch it.
    For those of you that want to do this but didn't read the first part of the conversation: I made a macro called "After Midnight".  It updates all stats from Covers, Espn etc, that I use daily.  To get this to run overnight automatically, I put in "This Workbook", the following command:

    Private Sub Workbook_Open()

    Application.OnTime TimeValue("02:00:00"), "AfterMidnight"

    End Sub

    The Bold type is the time you want to update, in my case 2am.  The 'AfterMidnight is the name of the macro to update.  
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    Quote Originally Posted by jenjay23:

    Hey Trader,

     Each update downloads all the covers data so it takes a bit of time each morning (half hour to 45min).  I have been playing with Kaptn's idea of having a command to auto update at 5am or so, but havent had to much success.  Puter always goes to hibernate or gets hung up half way through or so and locks, I have had it fully update a few times but not always so still a work in progress.....Maybe Degen has and idea to speed up the process with some VBA magic? .  

    GL


    I figured it out.  First, you have to set so your computer doesn't sleep/hibernate.  Screen saver coming on is fine.  With the spreadsheet, you save and exit, and then bring it back up...but don't touch it.
    For those of you that want to do this but didn't read the first part of the conversation: I made a macro called "After Midnight".  It updates all stats from Covers, Espn etc, that I use daily.  To get this to run overnight automatically, I put in "This Workbook", the following command:

    Private Sub Workbook_Open()

    Application.OnTime TimeValue("02:00:00"), "AfterMidnight"

    End Sub

    The Bold type is the time you want to update, in my case 2am.  The 'AfterMidnight is the name of the macro to update.  
     
    jenjay23
    jenjay23
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    Posts: 343
    Posted: Jun. 1, 2015 - 10:36 AM ET #116

    Sweet Kapt'n, cant wait to give it a try!!
    Riv,
    It's been a bit of a grind but all are showing profit to date, the W5Fade came out of the gates a bit slow.  Records of the games I played are below, I may have missed 1 or 2 qualifying games during my travels.  I also updated the links to the sheet with the YTD records if you would like to have a boo:
    L4Dog: 25-20 (55.56%) avg line: +127 (+9.28u)
    W5Fade: 14-13 (51.85%) avg line: +123 (+ 3.48u)
    Top VRPI: 13-9 (59.09%) (+ 4.52u)
    Top Pick Labby 35-20 (63.64%) (+15.23u)
    O-U System 3gm chase: 36-4 (+3.7u)
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    Sweet Kapt'n, cant wait to give it a try!!
    Riv,
    It's been a bit of a grind but all are showing profit to date, the W5Fade came out of the gates a bit slow.  Records of the games I played are below, I may have missed 1 or 2 qualifying games during my travels.  I also updated the links to the sheet with the YTD records if you would like to have a boo:
    L4Dog: 25-20 (55.56%) avg line: +127 (+9.28u)
    W5Fade: 14-13 (51.85%) avg line: +123 (+ 3.48u)
    Top VRPI: 13-9 (59.09%) (+ 4.52u)
    Top Pick Labby 35-20 (63.64%) (+15.23u)
    O-U System 3gm chase: 36-4 (+3.7u)
     
    rivermonsterz
    rivermonsterz
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    Posts: 1033
    Posted: Jun. 1, 2015 - 5:12 PM ET #117

    Wow very nice! Well done.
    I was looking through the old dog system thread and was wondering whether using the dog efficiency score to assist in making some plays would help?
    Only issue I seem to be having is pinpointing exactly how to calculate such a number.
    A google search revealed a subscription page that gives you such a score.
    I understand it could be a great help moving forward in the season, but then again as you stated earlier it may reduce our plays too much.
    I'd be interested to hear your thoughts.
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    Wow very nice! Well done.
    I was looking through the old dog system thread and was wondering whether using the dog efficiency score to assist in making some plays would help?
    Only issue I seem to be having is pinpointing exactly how to calculate such a number.
    A google search revealed a subscription page that gives you such a score.
    I understand it could be a great help moving forward in the season, but then again as you stated earlier it may reduce our plays too much.
    I'd be interested to hear your thoughts.
     
    jenjay23
    jenjay23
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    Posts: 343
    Posted: Jun. 1, 2015 - 6:09 PM ET #118

    Since Degen posted his underdog sheet a few years back i use the dog efficiency score in my everyday handicapping and certainly attempted to make a correlation or find a use for it as i attempted to develop some system trends that i play.  I did/do find it a useful tool, in everyday capping of games, especially when i see a team at the brink of qualifying under one of these systems.  I look at their Dog Efficiency values when i see a team at L2 or L3 or vice versa when fading the teams that are currently W3 or W4.  If you follow some of the trends in my top pick labby picks, many fall into this category.  Long story short, i didn't find additional value or a way to incorporate the score into the L4 or W5 but it would be interesting to look back and see what losses i would of avoided and what wins i would of lost out on.  I will try to do a little digging and see if this year would of resulted in any better results incorporating the value somehow.
    GL
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    Since Degen posted his underdog sheet a few years back i use the dog efficiency score in my everyday handicapping and certainly attempted to make a correlation or find a use for it as i attempted to develop some system trends that i play.  I did/do find it a useful tool, in everyday capping of games, especially when i see a team at the brink of qualifying under one of these systems.  I look at their Dog Efficiency values when i see a team at L2 or L3 or vice versa when fading the teams that are currently W3 or W4.  If you follow some of the trends in my top pick labby picks, many fall into this category.  Long story short, i didn't find additional value or a way to incorporate the score into the L4 or W5 but it would be interesting to look back and see what losses i would of avoided and what wins i would of lost out on.  I will try to do a little digging and see if this year would of resulted in any better results incorporating the value somehow.
    GL
     
    jenjay23
    jenjay23
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    Posts: 343
    Posted: Jun. 1, 2015 - 6:20 PM ET #119

    But this board over the years has helped me so much that any and all ideas are more than welcome, I love bouncing ideas out there and building sheets to prove/disprove the concept.  Anything to help improve my profit I will take any day!!
    GL
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    But this board over the years has helped me so much that any and all ideas are more than welcome, I love bouncing ideas out there and building sheets to prove/disprove the concept.  Anything to help improve my profit I will take any day!!
    GL
     
    jenjay23
    jenjay23
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    Posts: 343
    Posted: Jun. 9, 2015 - 2:28 PM ET #120

    I updated the current records of the L4, W5, VRPI & Top Pick Labby Sheet:

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B9UBaNk9s7UjYWZnYWZqaUxhdVU/view?usp=sharing

    Although nothing spectacular, it is a positive grind and  no sweating or losing a BR with chase series going sideways. 

    L4 - +9.44u (LAA pending)

    W5 - +3.48u (WASH & MIA pending)

    Top VRPI - +4.29u (STL pending)

    Top Pick Labby - +15.73 (Pitt pending)


    GL

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    I updated the current records of the L4, W5, VRPI & Top Pick Labby Sheet:

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B9UBaNk9s7UjYWZnYWZqaUxhdVU/view?usp=sharing

    Although nothing spectacular, it is a positive grind and  no sweating or losing a BR with chase series going sideways. 

    L4 - +9.44u (LAA pending)

    W5 - +3.48u (WASH & MIA pending)

    Top VRPI - +4.29u (STL pending)

    Top Pick Labby - +15.73 (Pitt pending)


    GL

     
    jenjay23
    jenjay23
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    Posts: 343
    Posted: Jun. 10, 2015 - 1:06 PM ET #121

    The 3 game chase Over-Under System sheet also has the updated records.  I did modify it slightly if you were using the original version.
    Record: 45-4 (+9.42u), KC OVER C game pending tonight...

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B9UBaNk9s7UjR3RZaFRSa1dZNUE/view?usp=sharing

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    The 3 game chase Over-Under System sheet also has the updated records.  I did modify it slightly if you were using the original version.
    Record: 45-4 (+9.42u), KC OVER C game pending tonight...

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B9UBaNk9s7UjR3RZaFRSa1dZNUE/view?usp=sharing

     
    yanks1932
    yanks1932
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    Posts: 18
    Posted: Jun. 11, 2015 - 2:18 PM ET #122

    Does the icy spreadsheet update automatically?
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    Does the icy spreadsheet update automatically?
     
    jenjay23
    jenjay23
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    Posts: 343
    Posted: Jun. 11, 2015 - 5:06 PM ET #123

    Yanks,
    it will pull the data from the various websites and determine qualifying teams if you have an internet connection.  Simply open the sheet, click the today button to display the days games and then click the update button.  Once the update is complete (~1 minute), you see the qualifying teams, stats, days pitchers etc.  If you want to track the games you can click the add bets to tracker button and it will transfer the games to the tracker tabs of the various systems.  I did update the sheet again as I added a few other systems that I play sporadically, helps me identify some situations if I want to take them.
    GL
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    Yanks,
    it will pull the data from the various websites and determine qualifying teams if you have an internet connection.  Simply open the sheet, click the today button to display the days games and then click the update button.  Once the update is complete (~1 minute), you see the qualifying teams, stats, days pitchers etc.  If you want to track the games you can click the add bets to tracker button and it will transfer the games to the tracker tabs of the various systems.  I did update the sheet again as I added a few other systems that I play sporadically, helps me identify some situations if I want to take them.
    GL
     
    yanks1932
    yanks1932
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    Posts: 18
    Posted: Jun. 12, 2015 - 3:26 PM ET #124

    So I can't update it from my phone
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    So I can't update it from my phone
     
     
    jenjay23
    jenjay23
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    Posts: 343
    Posted: Jun. 12, 2015 - 5:38 PM ET #125

    No, unless you have a windows based tablet/phone that runs excel.
    GL
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    No, unless you have a windows based tablet/phone that runs excel.
    GL
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