Posted:
#126
Ha sorry for all the questions, but nope I use iPhone 6 and iPad so I usually wait for I guess you to update, is there another way to get today's plays?
0
A few MLB Systems
Posted:
#127
Quote Originally Posted by jenjay23:
Since Degen posted his underdog sheet a few years back i use the dog efficiency score in my everyday handicapping and certainly attempted to make a correlation or find a use for it as i attempted to develop some system trends that i play. I did/do find it a useful tool, in everyday capping of games, especially when i see a team at the brink of qualifying under one of these systems. I look at their Dog Efficiency values when i see a team at L2 or L3 or vice versa when fading the teams that are currently W3 or W4. If you follow some of the trends in my top pick labby picks, many fall into this category. Long story short, i didn't find additional value or a way to incorporate the score into the L4 or W5 but it would be interesting to look back and see what losses i would of avoided and what wins i would of lost out on. I will try to do a little digging and see if this year would of resulted in any better results incorporating the value somehow.
Since Degen posted his underdog sheet a few years back i use the dog efficiency score in my everyday handicapping and certainly attempted to make a correlation or find a use for it as i attempted to develop some system trends that i play. I did/do find it a useful tool, in everyday capping of games, especially when i see a team at the brink of qualifying under one of these systems. I look at their Dog Efficiency values when i see a team at L2 or L3 or vice versa when fading the teams that are currently W3 or W4. If you follow some of the trends in my top pick labby picks, many fall into this category. Long story short, i didn't find additional value or a way to incorporate the score into the L4 or W5 but it would be interesting to look back and see what losses i would of avoided and what wins i would of lost out on. I will try to do a little digging and see if this year would of resulted in any better results incorporating the value somehow.
GL
That interesting to know. I also do see this quite often when backtesting some methods that come to mind, the more filters you add, the more wins you also filter out.
In regards to the dogg eff score, are there any spreadsheets floating around covers that calculate this for the 2015 season or will it have to be done manually?
Im looking into fading 0.6 teams soon, and hope this could be of some use. Not exactly sure how to go about it yet, looking into it.
0
Posted:
#128
I updated the current records and sheets on the above links as I have played. I also added 2 other flat betting systems that i have moderately kept my eye on over the years but have only invested $$ in this season since the beginning of June. I know they have been discussed prior but looking at gathering data and having some potential filters to help the cause. I always find the live and learn scenario by putting your own money up works best for this :). Any ideas that you have seen or have greatly appreciated.
Records to Date:
L4Dog - +11.2u
W5Dog- +1.66u
Top VRPI - +8.12u
O-U 3 gm chase - +12.44u
Top Pick Labby - +18.15u
H avoid sweep - -0.01u
Home Dogg - +6.56u
GL
0
Posted:
#129
Great stuff jenjay, just had a look over your work, and am very impressed with your ideas and record keeping.
This season never really got underway for me, but I have been using my spare time for hard research and monitoring of several systems and strategies I am aware of.
One thing I picked up today whilst surfing the interwebs was the in the stoffo system, he specifically tells us to cancel out all dogs that are greater than +150.
Just quickly I have run this filter through your L4 and W5 plays and have found roughly an extra 3 units gained in the L4 and an extra 2 units gained in the W5.
Not sure if this was one of the filters you played around with in the past with no success or not, but to me it seems to make sense. I'd be interested to hear your thoughts on the matter.
This season never really got underway for me, but I have been using my spare time for hard research and monitoring of several systems and strategies I am aware of.
One thing I picked up today whilst surfing the interwebs was the in the stoffo system, he specifically tells us to cancel out all dogs that are greater than +150.
Just quickly I have run this filter through your L4 and W5 plays and have found roughly an extra 3 units gained in the L4 and an extra 2 units gained in the W5.
Not sure if this was one of the filters you played around with in the past with no success or not, but to me it seems to make sense. I'd be interested to hear your thoughts on the matter.
0
Posted:
#130
Thanks Riv,
I have not utilized or thought of that filter. Since i have a few years of data I am going to increase that sample pool size and see if there is benefit. Makes sense to me, and if it shows any unit gain over time I am all over it. I am a unit hoarder and if it helps me put 1 more unit in my pocket I will take it anytime 
.
.Thanks for your feedback and thoughts, greatly appreciated
0
Posted:
#131
Riv,
I did a quick back check of only my L4Dog results from last year utilizing the +150 filter. Results showed that the total qualifying games played dropped from 140 to 105, the win % on those games increased from 54.29% to 59.05%......but at the end of the day when i stopped playing the system, profits were down $500 or 5 units utilizing the percent of BR for your daily bet amounts. Last year may be skewed a bit as this concept worked very well and showed the best results in the past 5 years.
The attached is the two methods, first tab as tracked and played and the second tab has the filter if you would like to dissect a bit more. I will dig into the W5fade and the years previous to see how it turns out.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B9UBaNk9s7UjQms5dXJnSVB5YUU/view?usp=sharing
Thanks again and GL
0
Posted:
#132
Riv,
Again thanks for this concept as it got me digging and thinking. I completed my back test of my tracked results back to the 2012 season. I believe this is more than enough of a sample pool size (~400 qualified games) to make an educated and statistical decision; I ran the elimination filters at different thresholds starting at +150 and moving up. The magic number over the last 3 seasons is eliminating games with odds greater than +180. In each system and each year it created more value and better results, and in some years (last as an example), an incredible difference in value (over $3k for over $8k profit). If this filter was utilized this year there would be a net diff of +7.8u in the L4Dog, eliminating 4 unneeded games which were all L's.....and an extra $780 for the $100 better compounding going forward. Huge improvement. I am changing it up and adding that filter going forward, thanks again.
GL
0
Posted:
#133
Sensational stuff jenjay!
You have kicked somme serious goals this year, and last season for hockey too.
Really simple ideas with minimal risk.
A question for you in regards to the home dog though.
Do you just play all home dogs blindly, or do you use a filter to trigger those plays?
I know from extensive research of the NHL that home dogs are a terrible bet, (which reminds me, last years RPI dog could have made some extra money if we were to filter out the home teams) but am unsure how the home dogs in baseball perform.
You have kicked somme serious goals this year, and last season for hockey too.
Really simple ideas with minimal risk.
A question for you in regards to the home dog though.
Do you just play all home dogs blindly, or do you use a filter to trigger those plays?
I know from extensive research of the NHL that home dogs are a terrible bet, (which reminds me, last years RPI dog could have made some extra money if we were to filter out the home teams) but am unsure how the home dogs in baseball perform.
0
Posted:
#135
Riv,
Regarding the Home Dogs, I am using/developing filters, but nothing right now i can write in stone. The simple one is that the qualifying home dog does not cross any of my other system plays. Since early June besides the crossing of plays, I have been somewhat letting it run as is but use personal discretion after evaluating the spot the teams in, pitching and other scenarios. One thing i do once in a while is take the home dog and if they win game 1 or 2 do not take them on consecutive nights where they will be dogged every game playing the same team. Historically running blind and just taking every home dog has not shown value but i do believe that in the right spot, there is lots.....just trying to determine that right spot :). As mentioned earlier, I find there is no better way than putting your own $$ to pick up on those trends/produce ideas as you got a little skin in the game. I find it harder to look at previous season results and pick out some of those spots. Since early June it has paid off adding ~9u to the cause. I would like to see how it plays out as time goes on.
GL
0
Posted:
#136
All Star Break Update.....some disappointments so far and some really surprising and great results in others:
L4Dog: 42 w's - 49 l's (46.15%) avg line: +130, +0.04 units
W5Fade: 22 w's - 24 l's (47.83%) avg line: +122, + 0.97 units
TOPVRPI: 30 w's - 14 l's (68.18%) avg line: -112, +13.82 units
TopPickLabby: 57 w's - 36 l's (61.29%) avg line: -137, +25.98 units
O-U: I ceased this one after winning a whopping 3 units in early July, for me it was to much time to update, track and keep up.
Not what I wanted from the L4 and W5 but hopefully it corrects a bit to show the historical +52% win ratio's and profits nicely in the 2nd half. I am adjusting it a bit and eliminating games >+160 in the L4 and >+150 in the W5. With these filters it could of added more than 10u's to the good for me. The TOPVRPI has a ridiculous win% and i would expect a correction down in the second half....but i hope not! With the success of my top pick labby, picking one game a night that i like through general handicapping i decided to add a second line that i have tracked since early July. The other two system tracking sheets (home dog & home avoid sweep) I identify qualifying plays, then simply choose to invest and track on the ones i like, still trying to determine the exact filters i would play on those ones.......The sheets are updated on the links above if you want to check out the qualifying games or utilize for your own creations
GL
0
Posted:
#140
Dr & Hiroshi,
The qualifying plays can be found in the excel sheet when you open it up, click today and click update (with a internet connection). I provided this as a tool, to help identify certain spots and trends and give additional information to help cap the games you choose to invest on. I would love to post the picks everyday but cannot commit the time it takes due to my travel and work schedule. On the sheet, I play the L4, W5, VRPI & Home avd sweep as it displays....On the home dogg, i use it to display the qualifiers and usually only choose 1 or 2 games I like each day. My top pick labby lines are just straight capped games I like each day and choose to invest on, no methodology or system involved. The link above is updated as of today.
GL
0
Posted:
#141
For the few utilizing the spreadsheet, those bugs are now fixed. Thx for letting me know the issues you were having. Please let me know if you have any other questions. Keep in mind that STL is a play in Top VRPI today, but doesnt show on sheet only due to a formula that picks up the last winner which was STL but doesnt differentiate that it is a new series, I will try to fix it but rarely does this situation occur.
Here is the link to new sheet:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B9UBaNk9s7UjYWZnYWZqaUxhdVU/view?usp=sharing
GL
0
Posted:
#143
Quote Originally Posted by jenjay23:
For the few utilizing the spreadsheet, those bugs are now fixed. Thx for letting me know the issues you were having. Please let me know if you have any other questions. Keep in mind that STL is a play in Top VRPI today, but doesnt show on sheet only due to a formula that picks up the last winner which was STL but doesnt differentiate that it is a new series, I will try to fix it but rarely does this situation occur.
Appreciate the link to the new sheet ....works fine/well done, thanksFor the few utilizing the spreadsheet, those bugs are now fixed. Thx for letting me know the issues you were having. Please let me know if you have any other questions. Keep in mind that STL is a play in Top VRPI today, but doesnt show on sheet only due to a formula that picks up the last winner which was STL but doesnt differentiate that it is a new series, I will try to fix it but rarely does this situation occur.
Here is the link to new sheet:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B9UBaNk9s7UjYWZnYWZqaUxhdVU/view?usp=sharing
GL
0
Posted:
#144
Must have to much time on my hands......I added profit/loss charts for each system within the sheet from the beginning of the season. Somewhat gives a visual of the success/failures and helps identify when and where your heading to the black/red.....I find the charts a good tool for looking back at things when determining starting bankrolls and ultimately amounts willing to invest. For the ones using excel for their own sheets, hopefully you can use some of the code to help yours out. Simply click on the header of each system on the summary tab to display the graph. Link above is updated.
GL
0
Posted:
#148
Apple,
Not sure if this answers your question or not.....
If the same team qualifies as the topVRPI in consecutive nights, but won as the topVRPI the previous night, there is NO PLAY. I find this limits amount of plays (risk) while increasing win%.
This system is still going on a nice pace:
63 W's - 21 L's, 66.67%, AVG line -119, 100.95% ROIBR of $2k @ $100u with very limited risk of starting $2k BR.
0
Posted:
#149
Hi jenjay.
In regards to the top VRPI I would just like to share what I have been doing with some success.
Firstly if two teams have a very high RPI differential, I will bet both. For example yesterday the blue jays were the top, but the royals only 2 behind, since the blue jays won the previous outing, I played the royals, good result!
Also, if I see a team will be the top VRPI for the whole series, and they win the first game, I will attempt to get them for a 2nd win in the series.
My record keeping hasn't been great but my account balance is still growing.
Just some more food for thought.
In regards to the top VRPI I would just like to share what I have been doing with some success.
Firstly if two teams have a very high RPI differential, I will bet both. For example yesterday the blue jays were the top, but the royals only 2 behind, since the blue jays won the previous outing, I played the royals, good result!
Also, if I see a team will be the top VRPI for the whole series, and they win the first game, I will attempt to get them for a 2nd win in the series.
My record keeping hasn't been great but my account balance is still growing.
Just some more food for thought.
0
Hot Forum Topics
