5 Run WIN Chase

Question

Cisco&#x27;s 5 Run Loss Chase got me to thinking about doing something in reverse.  After back testing the last three seasons, here is what I have come up with.5 Run Win ChaseQualifiers:  Any team that has a .525 winning percentage or higher that LOSES a game by 5 or more runs will trigger a chase.  Skip 2 games (a 5 run loss in either skipped game restarts chase) then chase up to 4 games that the system team will win one game.  Lay Odds betting strategy is to win 1 unit using Martingale betting strategy.  Plus Money betting strategy is to bet 1 unit, then two units, three units, then four units until a chase loss is achieved.Start date:  Third Monday after start of season.Two different betting strategies:1.  Lay Odds:  Play ML on favorites, &#x2B;1.5 RL on dogs2.  Plus Money:  Play -1.5 RL on favorites, ML on dogsHere are the results for the last three seasons:TOTALLay Odds:  278-4    &#x2B;178 unitsPlus Money:  262-20    &#x2B;140 units2012Lay Odds:  114-0    &#x2B;114 unitsPlus Money:  109-5    &#x2B;91.7 units2011Lay Odds:  88-2    &#x2B;38 unitsPlus Money:  81-9    &#x2B;15.3 units2010Lay Odds:  76-2    &#x2B;26 unitsPlus Money:  72-6    &#x2B;33.6 unitsSeries LossesLay Odds:  Approx 25 unitsPlus Money:  10 units

flwareagle · Answer

Cisco&#x27;s 5 Run Loss Chase got me to thinking about doing something in reverse.  After back testing the last three seasons, here is what I have come up with.5 Run Win ChaseQualifiers:  Any team that has a .525 winning percentage or higher that LOSES a game by 5 or more runs will trigger a chase.  Skip 2 games (a 5 run loss in either skipped game restarts chase) then chase up to 4 games that the system team will win one game.  Lay Odds betting strategy is to win 1 unit using Martingale betting strategy.  Plus Money betting strategy is to bet 1 unit, then two units, three units, then four units until a chase loss is achieved.Start date:  Third Monday after start of season.Two different betting strategies:1.  Lay Odds:  Play ML on favorites, &#x2B;1.5 RL on dogs2.  Plus Money:  Play -1.5 RL on favorites, ML on dogsHere are the results for the last three seasons:TOTALLay Odds:  278-4    &#x2B;178 unitsPlus Money:  262-20    &#x2B;140 units2012Lay Odds:  114-0    &#x2B;114 unitsPlus Money:  109-5    &#x2B;91.7 units2011Lay Odds:  88-2    &#x2B;38 unitsPlus Money:  81-9    &#x2B;15.3 units2010Lay Odds:  76-2    &#x2B;26 unitsPlus Money:  72-6    &#x2B;33.6 unitsSeries LossesLay Odds:  Approx 25 unitsPlus Money:  10 units

flwareagle · Answer

I should have also mentioned that the average Plus Money odds were &#x2B;130.

Danrules24 · Answer

Nice work! One question though. If a team has say a .530 winning % then has a 5 run loss, followed by the 2 skip games (both losses) and that brings them below .525 %, is it a play?

jaime2309 · Answer

Will you be posting plays?

Alldaygambler28 · Answer

This looks awfully familiar to my work.

cdburgess · Answer

Will you be posting throughout the season?

flwareagle · Answer

Hadn&#x27;t thought about it, but I might.

1958a · Answer

hi flwareagle,I did a MLB SDQL Query on your system and found different results although still seems to be a winning system.season = 2012 and ppppppo:runs - pppppp:runs &gt;= 5 and ppppp:WP &gt;= 52.5 and playoffs = 0 and p:L and pp:L and ppp:LI understand you consider the winning percentage right after the 5 run loss right?season 2012: total number of games 205game 1 109-96 average odds -117,3game 2 53-43 average odds -119,5game 3 27-16 average odds -106,9game 4 11-5 average odds -119,5average losses for a system loss 20,66 unitsHowever 2011 season looks ugly with 14 lossestell me if you think there is an error on the query or send me a message to check it further/regards

1958a · Answer

sorry, i mean series not games 205

Ddubb_Steady · Answer

Cisco&#x27;s 5 run chase system is a winner...

bruin95 · Answer

&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;Did you skip 2 games after the 5 run loss?

1958a · Answer

bruin95,I went only as deep as three losses, not four.  I rerun the query for four losses and here are the resultshttps://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?sdql=season&#x2B;%3D&#x2B;2011&#x2B;and&#x2B;pppppppo%3Aruns&#x2B;-&#x2B;ppppppp%3Aruns&#x2B;%3E%3D&#x2B;5&#x2B;and&#x2B;pppppp%3AWP&#x2B;%3E%3D&#x2B;52.5&#x2B;and&#x2B;playoffs&#x2B;%3D&#x2B;0&#x2B;and&#x2B;p%3AL&#x2B;and&#x2B;pp%3AL&#x2B;and&#x2B;ppp%3AL&#x2B;and&#x2B;pppp%3AL&amp;submit=S&#x2B;D&#x2B;Q&#x2B;L&#x2B;!you can play around with season=2011 to get results for every season.Last year (2012) was good with one system loss One loss on Det Apri 19 the chase start with a 10-3 loss to TEXAS etcfor 2011 after 4 game chase on moneyline we have 8 losses (the worst year along with 2006 for 10 losses).

bruin95 · Answer

I wish I was smart enough to do these database searches.  I go to those sites, look at the examples, and still can&#x27;t grasp how to do it.  It&#x27;s all gibberish to me.  Makes my head spin.

Air1 · Answer

hey eagle how id the system doing so far this season?

flwareagle · Answer

Ill have to check my stats when I get home, but the last I checked, it was 44-0 or 45-0.  I am only betting the lay odds way.

flwareagle · Answer

I just checked and it is now 50-0 after Thursday&#x27;s games with one open chase (Cleveland is a B bet tomorrow).

Air1 · Answer

Thanks for the info. do you have a list of plays? I have started making my own, just want to make sure our plays match up.

flwareagle · Answer

Do you mean a list of past plays or daily plays?

Air1 · Answer

I am going to make a like of all plays this season. like cisco does with his main street page.

flwareagle · Answer

Here are the season results so far (51-0, 1 open):

4-22. WAS-A

4-22. STL-A

4-23. ATL-A

4-24. OAK-A

4-24. DET-B

4-26. BOS-A

4-26. COL-A

4-28. CIN-A

4-28. OAK-A

4-29. PIT-C

5-1. ATL-D

5-1. STL-A

5-2. TEX-B

5-3. NYY-B

5-4. KC-A

5-4. COL-A

5-4. BAL-A

5-6. BOS-A

5-9. COL-D

5-10. TEX-A

5-10. BOS-A

5-12. CIN-A

5-13. KC-A

5-14. ATL-C

5-14. WAS-C

5-16. BOS-A

5-17. COL-A

5-17. ARI-A

5-17. CLE-A

5-18. NYY-A

5-18. SF-C

5-22. DET-A

5-22. SF-C

5-24. TEX-A

5-26. BAL-B

5-26. BOS-A

5-27. SF-D

5-27. CLE-C

5-29. NYY-C

5-30. ATL-A

5-31. BAL-A

5-31. CLE-B

6-1. NYY-C

6-1. CIN-A

6-3. ARI-B

6-3. PIT-B

6-4. NYY-A

6-5. BAL-B

6-5. CLE-(pending C bet)

6-6. MIN-A

6-7. TB-A

6-7. ARI-A

Today's Plays

6-8. CLE-C bet

6-8. TEX-A bet

flwareagle · Answer

Correction to 6-6 above:  MIN is a 5 Run Loss Chase....that bet was KC to beat MIN, which they did.CORRECTED RECORD ABOVE:  50-0, 1 open chaseI will check to make sure there aren&#x27;t any others.

flwareagle · Answer

The dates above are the date of the A bet.

ERBATIZ · Answer

VERY NICE RECORD

Air1 · Answer

eagle that is perfect. thank you for the info on the plays. i&#x27;ll adjust mine accordingly.

5 Run WIN Chase

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