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2011 NCAAF Strategy

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Posted: #251
Quote Originally Posted by PTbookiecrusher:

Great call on the Miami over tonite Irage, I sent you a friend request


Accepted.

Thank glefkb01 for this game. He pointed a couple weeks ago that Thurday night games have a crazy stat of overage. I just looked in on it this week and it clearly favored the OVER in both games.
 
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Posted: #252

Well the favorite and the UNDERs have a great coincendence.... with the dogs and the OVERS.....

Last night had 1 fav and 1 dog and 2 overs....   the the fav/unders is now something like 6-1 while the dogs and the overs are 9-0 or something...

 
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Posted: #253
 
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Posted: #254
Hey Irage - Just stumbled into your thread.  I'm impressed with your proven winning record and how little to none "garbage" in your thread.  Thank you for posting your plays and insight. 
 
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Posted: #255
Quote Originally Posted by G-Hoppa:

Hey Irage - Just stumbled into your thread.  I'm impressed with your proven winning record and how little to none "garbage" in your thread.  Thank you for posting your plays and insight. 


The guys in here are here to make money. No BS, but comments are always welcomed.
 
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Posted: #256
Looking for the BIG 30 wins today. Hope Stanford stands up and does what they do best and beat spreads.

29 - 12 - 0

Sept 03 - Auburn -24 - LOSS
Sept 03 - Stanford -30 - WIN
Sept 03 - Ohio St -34 - WIN
Sept 03 - Virginia Tech -26 - WIN
Sept 03 - Mississippi St -30 - WIN
Sept 09 - Missouri +10 - WIN
Sept 09 - Stanford - WIN
Sept 09 - USC -8.5 - WIN
Sept 09 - N. Illinois -4 - LOSS
Sept 09 - Arkansas -35.5 - WIN
Sept 16 - Boise St. -19 - WIN
Sept 17 - TCU -28.5 - LOSS
Sept 17 - Temple +7.5 - WIN
Sept 17 - Stanford -10 - WIN
Sept 23 - BYU -2.5 - WIN
Sept 24 - Missouri +22 - WIN
Sept 24 - Boise St OVER 61 - WIN
Sept 24 - Wisconsin -35 (H62) - WIN
Sept 24 - TCU -38 (H55) - WIN
Sept 30 - BYU -7.5 - LOSS
Oct 01 - Wisconsin -9 - WIN
Oct 01 - Stanford -20 (H35) - WIN
Oct 01 - TCU -11.5 - LOSS
Oct 01 - Arizona +12.5 - WIN
Oct 07 - Boise St -21 - WIN
Oct 08 - Ohio St. +12 - WIN
Oct 08 - Stanford -29.5 (H33) - WIN
Oct 08 - Alabama -29 (H35) - WIN
Oct 08 - Connecticut +19 - LOSS
Oct 08 - San Jose St. +12 - LOSS
Oct 14 - Hawaii -6 - LOSS
Oct 15 - Utah St. -3 - LOSS
Oct 15 - Stanford -21 (V33) - WIN
Oct 15 - Iowa -6.5 - WIN
Oct 15 - UTEP +1.5 - WIN
Oct 20 - Arizonia -4.5 - WIN
Oct 22 - Nevada -10.5 - LOSS
Oct 22 - UTEP -7 - WIN
Oct 22 - Wisconsin -7 - LOSS
Oct 26 - Connecticut +10.5 - LOSS
Oct 27 - Virginia v Miami OVER 48 - WIN
Oct 29 - Stanford -7.5 - PENDING
Oct 29 - Oklahoma St -14 - PENDING

3 - 2 - 0

UNOFFICIAL PLAYS
Sept 15 - Mississippi St. +3 LOSS
Sept 17 - Utah +4.5 WIN
Sept 24 - Utah St. -10.5 LOSS
Oct 15 - Arizona St. +14.5 - WIN
Oct 27 - Rice v Houston OVER 70.5 WIN
 
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Posted: #257
hey irage. are you not using the rpi ratings anymore?
From oct. 8 you only have 3 listed.
Of the none rpi games you have gone 6-7.
 
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Posted: #258
6-7 from oct 8*
 
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Posted: #259
Quote Originally Posted by Air1:

hey irage. are you not using the rpi ratings anymore?
From oct. 8 you only have 3 listed.
Of the none rpi games you have gone 6-7.


Kinda, I quickly figured out that the RPI is very close to the actual spread. It's not like baseball. I guess I still use it, but more to eliminate games. I have to use defensive numbers as well as offensive yardage. If that's not enough I look for other factors, like how many starters are playing, injuries and momentum. This is why football is so difficult to cap consistently. NFL is even tougher. It takes a lot of time to study games, which is why I look for stand out games with the highest probability of winning. I think it's coincidence that many of the winners had high RPI's.

Example, today I have Oklahoma St. is only 18 on the RPI scale, but the mismatch in offense and defense is HUGE, which is why I made it a play. Washington vs Oregon has an RPI (H34), this would normally be a play, but I see it as much closer game, which is why I dropped it.
 
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Posted: #260
WOW, WOW, WOW, now that was a football game. I have to admit I was sweating bullets and my voice is now shot.

I do know one thing, Stanford always looks for a way to win and come'on we had LUCK on our side. Vegas here I come.

I believe that makes me 3 - 1 this weekend.

31 - 12 - 0

Sept 03 - Auburn -24 (H39) LOSS
Sept 03 - Stanford -30  (H49) WIN
Sept 03 - Ohio St -34 (H49) WIN
Sept 03 - Virginia Tech -26 (H53) WIN
Sept 03 - Mississippi St. -30 (V40) WIN
Sept 09 - Missouri +10 - WIN
Sept 09 - Sstanford (V39) - WIN
Sept 09 - USC -8.5 - WIN
Sept 09 - N. Illinois -4 - LOSS
Sept 09 - Arkansas -35.5 (V41) - WIN
Sept 16 - Boise St.. -19 - WIN
Sept 17 - TCU -28.5 (H58) - LOSS
Sept 17 - Temple +7.5 - WIN
Sept 17 - Stanford -10 - WIN
Sept 23 - BYU -2.5 - WIN
Sept 24 - Missouri +22 - WIN
Sept 24 - Boise St OVER 61 - WIN
Sept 24 - Wisconsin -35 (H62) - WIN
Sept 24 - TCU -38 (H55) - WIN
Sept 30 - BYU -7.5 - LOSS
Oct 01 - Wisconsin -9 - WIN
Oct 01 - Stanford -20 (H35) - WIN
Oct 01 - TCU -11.5 - LOSS
Oct 01 - Arizona +12.5 - WIN
Oct 07 - Boise St -21 - WIN
Oct 08 - Ohio St. +12 - WIN
Oct 08 - Stanford -29.5 (H33) - WIN
Oct 08 - Alabama -29 (H35) - WIN
Oct 08 - Connecticut +19 - LOSS
Oct 08 - San Jose St. +12 - LOSS
Oct 14 - Hawaii -6 - LOSS
Oct 15 - Utah St. -3 - LOSS
Oct 15 - Stanford -21 (V33) - WIN
Oct 15 - Iowa -6.5 - WIN
Oct 15 - UTEP +1.5 - WIN
Oct 20 - Arizona -4.5 - WIN
Oct 22 - Nevada -10.5 - LOSS
Oct 22 - UTEP -7 - WIN
Oct 22 - Wisconsin -7 - LOSS
Oct 26 - Connecticut +10.5 - LOSS
Oct 27 - Virginia v Miami OVER 48 - WIN
Oct 29 - Stanford -7.5 - WIN (HUGE 4K WINNER)
Oct 29 - Oklahoma St -14 - WIN

3 - 2 - 0

UNOFFICIAL PLAYS
Sept 15 - Mississippi St. +3 LOSS
Sept 17 - Utah +4.5 WIN
Sept 24 - Utah St. -10.5 LOSS
Oct 15 - Arizona St. +14.5 - WIN
Oct 27 - Rice v Houston OVER 70.5 WIN
 
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Posted: #261
You nailed this week with that 4k bet Irage .Great job man.
 
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Posted: #262
Stanford game was amazing! got me off the chair a few times haha ... much appreciated thanx
 
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Posted: #263
I am looking at Miami Ohio -14.5 (H18) on Thursday night. Neither team that great, but at least MO can move the ball. I am waiting for the OVER/UUNDER in this game. I expect the line to be around 35. If it's less than 36 take it fast before it jumps.
 
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Posted: #264
 
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Posted: #265
Great week last week irage! Any plays Tuesday and Wednesday?
 
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Posted: #266
I am seriously looking at Miami Ohio UNDER 47 in this game. I don't know how they came out with that line, but I am looking into it.
 
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Posted: #267
 
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Posted: #268
OK, here we go for week 10. It's getting really hard to find good picks. Dropping 2K BC OVER 45. I can't tell you how nice it was to walk into the casino and collect my 7G's. I didn't take any of the NFL games last week and I'm glad I didn't. NCAAF is hard enough, NFL is near impossible. On a side note we are more than half way through the season. If you had bet 1K on every game you would have made 19K already. I am hoping to clear 30K by bowl time.

31 - 12 - 0

Sept 03 - Auburn -24 (H39) LOSS
Sept 03 - Stanford -30  (H49) WIN
Sept 03 - Ohio St -34 (H49) WIN
Sept 03 - Virginia Tech -26 (H53) WIN
Sept 03 - Mississippi St. -30 (V40) WIN
Sept 09 - Missouri +10 - WIN
Sept 09 - Stanford (V39) - WIN
Sept 09 - USC -8.5 - WIN
Sept 09 - N. Illinois -4 - LOSS
Sept 09 - Arkansas -35.5 (V41) - WIN
Sept 16 - Boise St.. -19 - WIN
Sept 17 - TCU -28.5 (H58) - LOSS
Sept 17 - Temple +7.5 - WIN
Sept 17 - Stanford -10 - WIN
Sept 23 - BYU -2.5 - WIN
Sept 24 - Missouri +22 - WIN
Sept 24 - Boise St OVER 61 - WIN
Sept 24 - Wisconsin -35 (H62) - WIN
Sept 24 - TCU -38 (H55) - WIN
Sept 30 - BYU -7.5 - LOSS
Oct 01 - Wisconsin -9 - WIN
Oct 01 - Stanford -20 (H35) - WIN
Oct 01 - TCU -11.5 - LOSS
Oct 01 - Arizona +12.5 - WIN
Oct 07 - Boise St -21 - WIN
Oct 08 - Ohio St. +12 - WIN
Oct 08 - Stanford -29.5 (H33) - WIN
Oct 08 - Alabama -29 (H35) - WIN
Oct 08 - Connecticut +19 - LOSS
Oct 08 - San Jose St. +12 - LOSS
Oct 14 - Hawaii -6 - LOSS
Oct 15 - Utah St. -3 - LOSS
Oct 15 - Stanford -21 (V33) - WIN
Oct 15 - Iowa -6.5 - WIN
Oct 15 - UTEP +1.5 - WIN
Oct 20 - Arizona -4.5 - WIN
Oct 22 - Nevada -10.5 - LOSS
Oct 22 - UTEP -7 - WIN
Oct 22 - Wisconsin -7 - LOSS
Oct 26 - Connecticut +10.5 - LOSS
Oct 27 - Virginia v Miami OVER 48 - WIN
Oct 29 - Stanford -7.5 - WIN
Oct 29 - Oklahoma St -14 - WIN
Nov 3 - Miami Ohio -14.5 - PENDING
Nov 3 - Boston College OVER 44 - PENDING
Nov 5 - SMU -25 (H27) - PENDING
Nov 5 - Ohio St. -27.5 (H30) - PENDING

3 - 2 - 0

UNOFFICIAL PLAYS
Sept 15 - Mississippi St. +3 LOSS
Sept 17 - Utah +4.5 WIN
Sept 24 - Utah St. -10.5 LOSS
Oct 15 - Arizona St. +14.5 - WIN
Oct 27 - Rice v Houston OVER 70.5 WIN
Nov 3 - CFU OVER 48.5 - PENDING
 
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Posted: #269
 
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Posted: #270
Do you have a system, or are we just following your bets?

Just wondering


 
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Posted: #271
Irage

U taking the overs because its Thursday? Dawgs and overs. Favs and unders. Don't want the reason to be in the system. BOL.
 
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Posted: #272

I just noticed I listed Miami Ohio -14.5, this is NOT A PLAY. I was looking at earlier in the week and still like the UNDER, but I wouldn't risk a cent on it.

As for the BC OVER, I am not taking it because of the Thursday OVER's, but because the matchup warrants an OVER.

 
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Posted: #273

Do you have a system, or are we just following your bets?

Just wondering

Yes, I do have a system, but as I have explained before it's not easy to quantify. I use many things to determine plays. I look at the RPI, offensive yardage, number of starters, injuries. To be honest I look for any good reason to eliminate a game rather than trying to find a reason to take a game. This is why I typically only find 3-5 games worth betting money on. Much of what I do is good instincts, I've got a pretty good feel for certain matchups as my records reflects.

 
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Posted: #274
so, just 2 plays today? BC over and unoficial cfu over
 
 
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No MIAMI OHIO! I ALREADY LOCKED IN!
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