WORLD CUP TODAY PLAYS (7/11)

TOURNAMENT:  140-110-11 (BIG PLAY: 49-35-8)

That Spain/Belgium game could have been much more profitable.  I think with fewer games I'm looking to hammer different angles instead of just playing the one or two spots within that single game.  That's pretty much the main difference in that with the knockout rounds the value is less on the favorites but most the favorites have been advancing.  So there have been some really sharp lines, to be expected with a tournament of this magnitude.

As stated in my last post yesterday, I do NOT see how England will lose this game other than Norway and Haaland seem a bit destined.  BUT...this is where the game starts to really go in Englands favor.  Both Erling Haaland and Martin Odegaard, the two best Norwegian players, play in the English Premier League.  In fact, England defender John Stones squares off against Haaland every day during training with Man City.  And Odegaard, for as crafty as he is, will not end up unmarked as the English know well how he plays.

What does concern me about England- and my dad was English so along with the French I've watched too many of these national team games- is it seems every time they have a HUGE victory where supporters can really start to believe and get behind the English squad, they produce a dud or let down in their next game.  But I don't think that happens here today for as good as the Norway squad and their coach are.

England have scored 2 or more goals in 4 out of the 5 World Cup games played this tournament.  Add to that eleven of Norway’s last 12 games saw both teams score and I would expect a game with goals.  BUT...the game is being played in Miami mid-day which will be brutally hot and humid.  Norway just beat Brazil there after a slow start so while they are familiar with the field and weather, I presume there will be some sluggishness on display from both sides as well.  Advantage Norway early imo.

Both of these teams tend to score the majority of their goals in the second half so that is something to note.  England is priced at -200 which has gone up since I had played them at -185 yesterday.  So the support on England is real, but I also think warranted.  I'm not sure I can post a play with odds that high though if you have the wherewithal to play it, by all means I think it's a winner.  Could extra time happen?  Sure.  Will it?  I dont' think so.

My post got cut again so be back in a minute with the plays and reasoning... 

If this game were indoors, these would most likely all be big plays and Norway FH wouldn't be considered.  But given the venue and field of play, as well as how both teams have done in either the FH or FG, these are my angles and plays...

YES BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE ENGLAND/NORWAY (-185):  Same as the past couple of days, I won't BIG PLAY this just b/c the odds are super inflated but I am playing this huge on my own bankroll.  If you like it play it as you might but I don't want to embrace a play that I think won't lose only to watch it do so as others of recent have and lose double the big juice.  To be clear, this includes extra time mainly b/c the weather will be brutal when they start and the teams have not scored more than 2 goals in H2H's over the past 5 matchups and 3 of those were 0-0 after regulation.  BUT...these teams have not played since 2014 and they are very very different squads today.

NORWAY FH (0) +145:  Hear me out on this...England have NOT started off games great this tournament, they certainly did last game, but Norway have really made strong FH showings in every game except the France game where they were undermanned.  With the heat at the start, I will certainly take this type of return with a draw pushing as well.  ONLY take if you have the (0) for the FH which is inclusive of a draw, as tasty as Norway FH +330 might appear (watch it cash now).

ENGLAND FG (-150)...BIG PLAY!!!:  This is tough bc I think they can certainly win in regulation but this play is including extra time.  Clearly I have a suspicion that maybe the goals are at a premium and this might go to extra time, but I again don't see England relenting.  I know I have Norway in the FH but that's more b/c of how the teams have started out and the amount of goals that England has netted in the 2nd half.  Their game is just strangely more successful when they are awoken by the opposition scoring, and that seems to be the English way as they always seem to play to the opposition.

I will probably be back with a goalscorer play on Harry Kane.  I will FOR SURE be back on the Swiss/ARgentina game which I think have a lot of really interesting spots to play.  As always, tail or fade, good luck to all...

 Let’s have ourselves a Saturday!

BOL today

@LAGameofInches

I was thinking — if you like Norway to win the first half, why not bet live on England in the second half? There's likely much more value there

I took the BTTS yesterday at -165 so I paid early but I think by kick off it's closer to -200.  Norway's defense is not great and the English have given up goals so they are not completely buttoned up in the back.  I just don't see how they don't get over 1.5 goals though again perhaps the weather slows them down as the dry surface is not always friendly to higher scoring affairs.  That's perhaps the only reason I didn't play the OVER 2.5 in this game.

I thought the same, and I really like the +140 return based on the way these teams have played.  I'm just not convinced that a goal even happens early so that would really not help the odds on England FG.  In other words, I believe that the FH will be hard fought but if there is any team that could sneak one in, at least from my viewpoint, that would be Norway given they have been active in all FH's.

But, they just played Brazil in Miami and you saw how slow that FH was before Norway took control of the 2nd half.  Therefore, I don't want to find myself at 0-0 for the half, then pony up on England, just to find they suffer the same fate as Brazil.

I'd rather take the FH, embrace the English being a 2nd half team, and if they are behind, know they will come out with a vengeance and that will most likely cash the BTTS.  If Norway is up at the half, I'll gladly take the profits and then maybe put more on England as they will have great odds.  But at 0-0, or any tie for that matter, the English play isn't going to be discounted, in fact might be more costly.

thanks for chiming in you do get the wheels turning in my head like many I love Haaland and don't want to see him go but I have to be smart about the teams on the field and not just one player.  Tough.

So you are rooting for Norway to score in 1h and win.  Then expecting Eng to equalize in 2nd half but not confident to win in regulation cause that would take it over 2.5.  Then you expect Eng to win in ET or penalties?  That would be some cool predicting if it plays out that way.  Hope it works out.  Win or lose, these threads have been a fun read with all the engagement.

Make sense, thanks 

You went 2-3 yesterday. Not sure how that’s profitable. Record should Be 140-111. No worries, no need to thank me. 

Best of luck playing both sides today 

He "unloaded" on the team total. C'mon man, follow along. 

Bol today

@vankiep_0007

Thanks hope you've been well.  

It's so hard to imagine this game without a Harry Kane goal given all the comparisons the media have been making to Haaland this week.  I think both will be motivated but Kane just scores at every big match and is having the best goalscoring season across a bevy of huge tournaments.  Model of consistency and he loves the NFL haha 

What does (0) FH mean as far as betting? I don’t see it in Dragtkings? Thanks!

@RaiderNation925

 5 figures baby

@NNYHILLBILLY

 O or pk, just meaning if there’s a draw you push instead of losing 

so Norway or draw for first half?

Thanks Wingit????

@NNYHILLBILLY

 Thanks Wingit! Not sure where the damn question marks come from lol

I'm adding Harry Kane Anytime Goal Scorer:

HARRY KANE ANYTIME GOALSCORER INCLUDING EXTRA TIME (-130):  If I expect Norway to give up goals, then I expect Harry Kane to be on the end of one of them.  Really great goalscorer plays with Kane, Haaland and Messi and they all take their country's penalties.  I just think Kane is most likely in this game.

As always, tail or fade, good luck to all...

1-0 Norway 

Norway!!

Great Bait and Switch by Norway.  How great it would be to get this first play over the finish line.  Then some tasty half-time lines will be had.  Still a handful of minutes so let's see how this ends up