WORLD CUP TODAY PLAYS (6/27)

TOURNAMENT:   90-56-1 (BIG PLAY: 32-18-1)

Gonna kick off by saying these past two days have been nothing short of sublime.  Which is great b/c there were a couple days this week that were horrific.  So what is the common denominator between those days that we have not done well?

Last night, after a more or less perfect day, I went out to dinner for my mom's bday.  We love Hillstone so we headed there.  While there were TV's, they weren't very visible for me so I posted the play of FH OVER in the Belgium game and thought there would be little way it would not get there.  All I saw in the game were the last 5 minutes of the first half when I dropped my mom off at her place.  And, that was all I needed to see.

There are teams in the tournament that will advance, and I will heavily wager against b/c they are poorly coached and otherwise have little chance.  Belgium, are one of those teams.  If you want to ensure you win, and I know they did so in the second half, why on earth do you keep starting DeKetelaere when if Lukaku can play, I would have him up top.  Why do I say that?  Well, in the five minutes I watched, he might have missed two golden chances that any good striker would hit.  And I didn't see it but having a penalty overturned is not good for a FH OVER.  I know they got the 1 anyways, but Lukaku came in and instantly scored and assisted.  Just saying..

Well, both the times I have had these frustrating late game losers I have been out and about.  I did get to catch the end of the Iran/Egypt game once I got home and....WHOA!  But had I been home before the game started I would have done a couple of things differently, so I'm not posting again unless I'm at home and able to do so.

That being said, let's not kid ourselves, yesterday was really awesome as was the day prior.  There are some really tasty matchups, Colombia is going to score on Portugal that much I know.  Both of those teams give up goals but I think it's going to be really hard not to back Colombia with such a heavy support system in Miami.

I wanted to start the thread and I will be back very shortly with plays.  Seems when I get them up and posted early they have been doing well.  Dont want to jinx myself but instead marry myself to a process that has been working.  The goal will be to get to 100 wins before the 60 losses.  Pretty sure we can accomplish that

BOL today 

Good luck and thanks 

TRUST THE PROCESS!!!!

LET'S GO!! 

Good luck today man

I have a really great story to add.

Once I got home, I decided to log into my accounts and see where I stand after a great day.  I was expecting my account to be a bit inflated but it was substantially more so and while elated, I wanted to figure out how this happened.  Well, when I looked back at the settled plays, I forgot I had a pretty large parlay on Argentina, Netherlands, France, and....Belgium (yes those "show stoppers") in a parlay to win their group that paid 3.5 x.  

So I will probably need to go back and visit my FUTURES post before the tournament and see where everything seems to be heading.  But I'm super happy I got Belgium as group winners considering it wasn't even decided until they brought Lukaku on and scored two more.

I guess that's just how it goes sometimes.  Posting plays in a couple 

Excellent Futbol insight amigo 

Colombia in Miami is like playing in Colombia, it's a total home field in that stadium

Glad you had a great day with your mom. My mom's birthday was the 23rd, she was 82 as well

BOL today! 

Those are the BEST wagers...the FUTURES you forgot you placed! 

BOL on Saturday 

These lines suck for England.  Period.

There is an implied probability of over 70% that they score more than 2.5 goals on their own.  All you actually need to look at is the TT OVER 2.5 for England which is heavily juiced and the total in the game, which is 3.5.  Given that Panama have now won just two of their last nine games overall (D3, L4) and are already eliminated, I don't see how they keep up.  If you need any more indication of ineptness, Panama have also not scored a goal in the tournament.

However, they have only lost 1-0 to both Croatia and Ghana, which might serve as some moral victory.  But the real moral victory for them would be to not get throttled by England, which I do not see happening.  Panama lost in a recent friendly to Brazil 6-2 and I think that would be more useful a comparison than the games they just played against Croatia and Ghana.

England will have massive pressure on them, their job is far from complete.  I'm not sure the goals therefore will flow as one might expect, and given Panamas dependence on packing it in on defense I believe England will score on a set piece as they are far bigger than the Panamanians.  Simply put, it's an unfair squaring off of one team that have only lost on matchday three of the group stage in one of their last 14 World Cup campaigns (W8, D5) against another have failed to score in three of their five World Cup matches.

ENGLAND -2 (-165):. Both the juice and the alternative line keep this from being a big play.  But I'm super confident in this play.  I thought about taking -2.5 given the write up but England also has a tendency for winning a game that you could have slept through.  

ENGLAND -1 (-130) FH...BIG PLAY!!!:  If this pushes I'm ok with it but this will not lose.  If Panama were to somehow score, I'd say this were an open game and England will in that case get at least 2.  But that's not going to happen and England will surely get one given the lineup I expect they start, the pressure they have from their own fans given last result, and the stakes of the game for them.

I'm going to be back with a write-up on Croatia/Ghana and Might add an anytime goalscorer.  As always, tail or fade, good luck to all...

against better judgement took them like at half o3.5 TT and debryune goal -2.5 spread. Won’t touch them again…..

first goal since game 1 of last World Cup vs Canada 

Here we go!!!! Best of luck to all!!

Colombia!!

@LAGameofInchesI have always treaded carefully with England as they are always overvalued IMHO. Panama is decent. GL

As for Croatia and Ghana...well, I'm leaning pretty heavily in one direction and I keep asking myself what is making me try not to slam this play.

Both teams come into this game in really good shape, and Croatia are constant WC surprises, which make them not a surprise anymore for me.  They somehow sneak through and progress and play ugly but get it done.  Same formula will apply here.

Let's start with Croatia have never lost to a side ranked 40th or lower by FIFA in six previous such matches at the World Cup (W4, D2).  Add to that they are unbeaten in four previous World Cup meetings with African sides (W3, D1) and they have also lost just one of their last eight group-stage games at the tournament (W5, D2).  And, it's not as though some of those players haven't been on those previous WC teams as they come in one of the more experienced sides.

Croatia do not score a ton, but they have an incredible goalkeeper in Dominik Livakovic, dont' kid yourself, he's a reason they are where they are.  But most people don't even acknowledge him as such and given that Ghana have only scored once themselves, I expect a tight and hard fought low scoring game.

Ghana would love to win but a draw for them would also ensure second place and a loss would most likely get them into a third place game, though they cannot be certain.  A win could take them top of the group. So they will be motivated but also very careful.  Croatia know this type of game well and will make some mistakes but will also defend very steadily.  I see little to no way that Croatia does not win this game.  They could draw, but given the WC history for Croatia, they will not outright lose imo.

CROATIA (-125):  Short line with a lot of the game edge I think in their favor.  This will also be my Drawbreaker.

CROATIA -1 (+160):  Why not.  I don't see more than 3 goals in this game but anything is clearly possible.  I think if that happens, then this is as good a play as there is on the board b/c I think it's Croatia getting the two goals.  But don't want to roll the dice with the totals.

Ghana have been poor in first halves then pick things up in the second half.  Again, I just think that Croatia is a tested team for these type of high pressure and profile games and typically these are not the ones that they drop.  As always, tail or fade, good luck to all..

BOL 

LAGI, any parlays including all the games? This is the last day for something like this. 

Really like both teams to score in the Columbia Portugal game -158

@LAGameofInches

Love the England fh play. This is the best lineup they’ve played the entire WC

I"m gonna take Rashford as an anytime goalscorer at +170.  Unofficial play since it's small but if you want to tail he has 4 WC goals which is one of only four England players to score that many.  Kane is amongst the others but he is juiced so high it's tough to take him as an official play.  So gonna run with this spot as Rashford was also very good this year at Barcelona.

I hate this croatia game. Ghana is so freaking annoying  They take

the fun out of the game  1 goal scored combined in 2 games and

it was in the last 5 mins. GL with croatia  

@Brooklyncapper

Then just watch and pull for the Fiery Ones.  I didn't like it at first but it kept jumping out at me and usually that's a good thing.  Ghana underperforms imo, they have a lot of firepower and just can't get it done.  They have more pace than Croatia but the Croatians are more experienced and very technical.