WORLD CUP TODAY PLAYS (6/23)

TOURNAMENT:  67-34-1 (BIG PLAY: 23-10-1)

Good morning everyone.  A new day, a new chance for profits.  I also think I forgot to tally the France TT futures so I took another L in the record as I had both of those half units darts but I did post them so I took the hit.

There have been loads of other opportunities, including last night's over and that in the Norway game, which I had put in parlays but not made official plays.  Sometimes after I get hit, as I did on France and that Ecuador disaster, I like to be a bit more careful vs. coming out and firing more units.  So once we get back on solid footing, which should be today, I will also increase plays.  I try not to post games like Algeria -200 even if I take it with a "Drawbreaker", which I am 6 for 6 taking with no draws lol.  Weird promo that DK has provided but I will gladly take it, especially given it's soccer and draws happen.

On to today where I really like the slate, outside of the first game with these Portuguese imposters.  I firmly believe they will win today but again there is no value in this heavy favorite littered with overpaid and overrated players.  What's more, they didn't look particularly threatening versus a DR Congo team and I actually think Uzbekistan is better than Congo.  I also believe Colombia is the best team in this group!

I can find some value in the total that is strangely set high imo at 3.5 goals.  Considering Portugal have only scored more than twice in one of their last nine matches that would mean that Uzbekistan would have to score twice to buck that trend.  Then I read that Portugal have only scored more than twice in one of their last nine matches and something had to give.

I think what will give is the total.  Portugal will want to get 3 goals today but I'm not sure if Uzbekistan get one back, though Portugal as you just read to give up goals when pressed.  These early games have been low scoring, again yesterday watching Argentina win 2-0, and I think Uzbekistan understand if they play the open game that Portugal would want, they will lose.  But alas, they have no choice so I expect them to defend and then counter today but the total is just too high:

UNDER 3.5 (PORTUGAL/UZBEKISTAN) -145

Yes, I can see a scenario where Portugal comes and just trashes Uzbekistan.  But this team is not a total walkover and I think the Portuguese will again make the mistake of thinking this and potentially get burned.  I'm not sure if Uzbekistan will score but given the trends on Portugal, I wouldn't put it past them to do so.  I know everyone including myself hate taking these unders but it's the early slate that is also pushing me to do so.  I don't want to hammer this b/c my hammers are a bit later in the day but I am going to ride with this play as the one carrying most value in this game.

As always, tail or fade, good luck to all...

BOL 

GL with the play but that’s some tough value, 45 cents. 

One last bit in case anyone likes some analytics...

Portugal have historically struggled against teams in the AFC zone (Asia) especially at the World Cup.  I know this isn't a play against Portugal but I do hope they struggle here again.  The England match is incredibly priced going to try and find some value but I imagine Ghana will play a more similar style of play they used to frustrate Panama.  Though I did witness many chances that Panama could have scored on and I think that will be the difference with the English, they won't miss those opportunities.

Could be 2-0 or 5-0

Thank you so much for your hard work and for sharing your plays with the forum.

When you look at the other spots, I don't see value anywhere else.  Sometimes you have to pay for value just like I did 6 months ago when I started funneling dollars into chip stocks.  Those have made me so much money even though everyone claimed they were expensive.  That's just the world we live in now, and the bet if I'm being fully transparent is now at -140 and that's what I placed it at.

Really doesn't matter, if it wins then it wins, yes we get back less, but it's better than losing imo.  It's not the best bet of the day and reflective of such.  I could also play an anytime goal scorer which have much better odds, but that would be picking someone on Portugal's side.  Otherwise we have to drop numerous goals and take Portugal.

Just wanted to say thanks for the plays man. Been following along for a bit (albeit, adding things to the plays sometimes) and look forward to your picks everyday. I bagged Messi, Mbappe, & Halland for 2 goals in a parlay yesterday, so now I'm looking to stick to singles. I think there could be an interesting live play in Portugal if Ronaldo comes off at all. Anyway, thanks and GL!  

I don’t see where you said France TT’s were half units. Let’s keep it honest. You’re doing great this WC, but should be 67-35 

That's EXACTLY right.  I can see either but I think more like potentially 3-0.  The England total is also set that high and England has a tendency for letting down after a big showing.  But the early start, just like in all other sports, I think will affect this game, at least that's my hope for the first half.  I almost took out my steel balls and wagered on Uzbekistan in the FH at +1, but I just don't want to lose much if at all on this game.

@UnrankedChamp

 Crazy when someone sits at home with a blackboard writing down someone else's wins and losses. Guess thats the world we live in... too many folks with time on their hands thats just look to talk trash

Wow you're back only to make that comment?!  Oh and you also trolled me when I also had made a record keeping mistake beforehand.  

Zero value in anything you say, it's my thread and my record keeping.  I corrected a mistake which is more than most can say many dont' even keep records and some are firing 100 and 75 unit plays on everything, which we all know is total bullshit.  You think I am hammering a full unit on France TT over 4.5 goals at +220?  Sometimes I don't need to state anything, I state enough to help people win in sports.  More than I can say about you.

My record stays where it is, if you don't like it that's fine, move on.  Loads of other threads for you to bring your comments to.  

As I ALWAYS state, tail or fade, good luck to all....It's guys like you that make me not want to post plays anymore.  Literally going to stop b/c of these comments and you can tail the other guys who seem to be doing just as well.

@LAGameofInches

 Dont let him get under your skin, he'll probably be jumping off a bridge within the next five years if that... He's obviously miserable.

Be the bigger man and just ignore.

They want you to anwser and talk about it. You know your records, we've seen your plays. 

You're just crushing it, that's it.

Would love to parlay the under because I hate unders.any lean for now on later games to parlay with  TIA 

@LAGameofInches

Screw that dude and keep rolling brotha!

Unfortunately I don't see how the England games goes over either.

You can roll into Colombia that will be my Drawbreaker today, I fully expect them to win with a huge crowd behind them.  And Panama stands no shot vs. a Croatia team in a must win.  Those are highly priced so parlaying them all should be a solid return.  

Of course first thing is first...

Probably the right play but I just see them throwing the hammer down Today and wining really big. Enjoy the game. Great run dude!!! 

@LAGameofInches

 Do not let the outliers get too you. Personally let it get to me this morning in my thread and now having to cut the grass again which was cut yesterday. Learning a lot from you, my friend.  

@LAGameofInches

 Thanks 

@LAGameofInches

 Get some bro 

Drawbreaker on Colombia today?