World Cup Preview and First Round Game picks thread.....

Yes.

 

Thanks Van,nice wins last couple of days.,

GL on futures,dont think I could of  bet many of those,local with a service that does his work,bookies just pay and collect now.

My book does not give +.5 everything is 1 or PK.  Can I hurt him ?

FR      PK

Ger   -1

slov    pk

eng -1.5

Gotta get Saturday up now - will be out of commission tomorrow.....

Current Record 9-5
Up +9.58 units

Previous games...

1.  SA / Mex over 2 -122 (1.5 units) -  PUSH
2.  Uruguay +.5 -109 (2 units) - WIN
3.  SK / Greec under 2 -103 (2 units) and 0-0 at +600 (.5 unit) - PUSH (lose .5 unit)
4.  Argentina -200 (2 units to win 1 unit) - WIN
5.  USA / Eng over 2.5 +105 (2.5 units) - LOSS
6.  SLV / ALG - no bet
7.  Serbia +116 (2 units) - LOSS
8.  Australia +1 +106 (1 unit) - LOSS
9.  Netherlands -180 (1 unit) - WIN
10.  Cameroon +112 (.5 unit) - LOSS
11.  Paraguay +.5 (2.5 units) - WIN
12.  Slovakia -.5 -200 (risked 1 unit) - LOSS
13.  Ivory Coast / PTGL - no bet
14.  Bzl / NK - no bet
15.  Chile (2 units) - WIN
16.  Switz +1.5 (.5 unit) - WIN
17.  Uruguay PK -140 (5 units) - WIN
18.  Arg / SK over +108 (1 unit) - WIN
19.  Greece +.5 (2 units) - WIN

Futures...

1.  Uruguay to advance +110 (2 units)
2.  Uruguay to win group A +400 (.5 unit)
3.  Argentina to win group B -220 (2 units)
4.  Nigeria NOT to advance -118 (2 units)
5.  England to win group C -320 (2 units)
6.  USA NOT to advance +112 (3 units)
7.  Serbia to win group D +330 (.5 unit)
8.  Germany NOT to advance +387 (.5 unit)
9.  Netherlands to win group E -145 (4 units)
10.  Denmark to advance +105 (1 unit)
11.  Japan zero points +360 (1 unit) - LOSS
12.  Paraguay win group F +340 (1.5 units)
13.  NZ no poings +100 (1 unit) - SICK LOSS
14.  Portugal to advane -110 (1.5 units)
15.  NK zero points -140 (2 units)
16.  Switz to advance +160 (1 unit)
17.  Argentina to win tournament +725 (6 units risked)
18.  Argentina / Neth final +3300 (.5 unit)
19.  No african team to advance +1200 (1 unit)
20.  No african team qtr finals +165 (2 units)

Thursday June 17

20.  France / Mexico - France +138 (3 units risked) - I think the line has finally risen above value for France - based on the perception (rightfully so) that they cant play together.  But I think that Mexico's defensive lapses will provide the open door that France needs to pull it together.  Mexico will be overmatched - and the lack of playmaking that we saw against S Africa will kill them here - France is disciplined on defense and will not let up a goal like S Africa did because of lack of concentration.  France individual talent lifts them here - Predicted final score France 2-0.

NOTE - I HAVE BUMPED UP FRANCE FROM 1.5 UNITS TO 3 UNITS.  I THINK THEY THRASH MEXICO TOMORROW.

Friday June 18

21.  Germany / Serbia - Serbia +.5 +140 (1 unit) - This line has crept down, mostly because it started way too high based on Germany's first performance (which was undeniably great), and Serbia's first performance (which was undeniably awful).  Germany is everyones "best team" at the WC so far - a label that often does not translate in to long term success (ask the Dutch, or the Italians).  So Im going with my pretournament feeling on this one - and betting in to a value line that is way too high.  If Germany come out and control the possession like they did against Australia and pass at 85%+, they will win, but I look for a desperate Serbia team to come out with something to prove and look to be more offensive and not just sit back like they did much of the Ghana game.  Next week, everyone will have a new "best team".  Predicted final score Germany 1 Serbia 1.

22.  USA / Slovenia -   Slovenia +.5 (1 unit) - I will go against my heart here, and gladly lose this one to see the USA go on to win.  I just dont see how the USA wins this game outright 56 out of 100 times.  Both teams will think they have to win - the USA really could get a draw out of this and feel OK about their chances to advance, but Slovenia needs a win here - a draw doesnt suit them so well with England on deck.  I just dont buy in to the USA being able to create enough open play to create chances on net - and I still feel that they are very vulnerable at the back - even with Howards tremendous play.  I hope the USA win, but my head tells me that taking the odds here is the right play.  Final predicted score - USA 1 Slovenia 1

23.  England / Algeria - Over 2.5 +108 (1 unit) - At the risk of repeating myself, England dont have a defense, and on top of that Ledley King is now out of the tournament, leaving a back line that is plugging holes and bailing water.  England can and will score, and Algeria will feel a sense of urgency with their first round loss - and cant afford to sit back and defend.  There should be lots of open play in this one.  After this one, everyone will think England is back.  Predicted Final score - England 3 Algeria 1.

Saturday June 19

24.  Netherlands / Japan - Netherlands -200 (4 units to win 2 units) - Lots of juice to lay here, but I just cant see the Dutch not winning this one.  If you would have told me pretournament that I could get -200 on this at gametime I would have been very happy - sticking to that formula.  The Dutch will do everything Cameroon was unable to do - string passes together in the midfield - attack with precision - and minimize their speed advantage.  The Dutch creativity will be way too much for a very pedestrian Japanese side.  Predicted final score - Netherlands 3 Japan 0

25.  Australia / Ghana - Australia +.5 -112 (3 units) - Australia got thrashed at the hands of the Germans in their first game.  But this side is not as bad as they looked, and Ghana not as good.  I dont think the Aussies are as panicked as everyone in the media is about their performance - they just know that they have to go out and win their next two and they advance.  Im looking for them to regroup and put out a good showing against a side that beat a lackluster Serbia side at their worst.  Cahilll is out, Aussies are underdogs - I think that might just piss them off enough to come out and fight.  Final score prediction - Australia 2 Ghana 1

26.  Denmark / Cameroon - Denmark PK -122 (3 units) - Honestly, this line has me perplexed.  I dont know why Denmark isnt a bigger fav in this one, after a lifeless showing from Cameroon in the first game.  Cameroon showed no signs of being dangerous around the net against the Japanese - I just cant see them breaking down a stingy and disciplined Denmark defense.  I think the Danes come away with a clean sheet here - and pop at least one or two in to put them right back in the mix for second place in the group.  Predicted final score - Denmark 2 Cameroon 0

GL all

GO USA

23.  England / Algeria - Over 2.5 +108 (1 unit) - At the risk of repeating myself, England dont have a defense, and on top of that Ledley King is now out of the tournament, leaving a back line that is plugging holes and bailing water.  England can and will score, and Algeria will feel a sense of urgency with their first round loss - and cant afford to sit back and defend.  There should be lots of open play in this one.  After this one, everyone will think England is back.  Predicted Final score - England 3 Algeria 1.

Except the one's who dwell there.

hey man i just started betting soccer. What is the difference between a PK play and money line???

thanks

Going to tell you something my man-- you better really know about betting soccer when you're talking about ML.  I had to learn the hard way a few years ago.  Yeah Im not afraid to admit it. Moneyline bet in soccer means the team has to win.  Pretty self explanatory unless you're messing with parlays.  You can have a draw and you will lose a parlay even if your ML team doesn't "officially" lose

But I will let the other guys answer you because I always thought myself that PK means MONEYLINE.  Because you are picking the winner.   Now you can take or give points. 

The beautiful sport wouldn't have pus oozing sores if you would (blasphemy! it can never be changed!) tweak the sport to emphasize the atheletes and make the officials and their frequently arbitrary and  incorect decisions less important. Just another ignorant American who doesn't know a goddamn thing about soccer but can recognize a George W Bush sized clusterfuck when he sees one. My country fucks things up worse than anybody in a lot of areas but one thing we get right is fairness in sports emphasizing altheticism. Of course I'll catch a lot of shit for this but I love world cup soccer and this sport has serious correctable flaws.

what was the France not to advance  line?

The good news about the France game is that it made me forget about Slovakia.

The bad news is I dont think Im going to forget about France now.

That was gross.

The bright side is that your Uruguay to Win Group A bet is looking very good now.

Should have listened. You knew that was a team in turmoil, yet you wouldnt refute or listen to any arguments against your side.

You're still the king, well, in your own right.

I dont know who you are, but it is obvious that you are still a douche.

Should have listened.  Do me a favor, and let me know when I should listen and when I shouldnt, and I will be a billionaire.

Dumbass.

 

True.

I told you you should have listened last night, and you coudlnt even refute my post.

You answer all of the people slobbing on your knob, but you didnt respond to the one with adversity.

Bottom line is instead of cashing a +300 dog.... in the words of Mike Francesa: "Youah Lawst!".

I think Sharp ONLY slanders people, his opniion is always the right opinion and he has never lost a game

No go back a  page, I posted my picks. Mexico and South Korea

So I lost a +770 ML dog, and nailed a +300 one. Bash away

even a blind squirrel will find a nut from time to time, calling Mexico was pure luck

He doesn't know what he meant, he's an idiot. Mexico getting +300 against a team that hates their HC and  is in all sorts of turmoil was an overreaction to G1, and like you said, based on France's reputation.

Refer to the penalty box for Revenge's idiotic threads

Take a hint, no one give sh!t about your opinion.  Go start your own thread and stay there.

fwiw

the games at the highest altitude have witnessed the higher goals/game avg...
to 1499 metres = 1.615/game (13 games)
1500 plus metres = 2.428/game (7 games)

 

agreed. anyone with knowlegde of this game and the talent on each countrys roster was on mexico here.

luck for calling mexico win??? LOL