World Cup Preview and First Round Game picks thread.....

Current Record 11-7
Up +7.98 units

Previous games...

1.  SA / Mex over 2 -122 (1.5 units) -  PUSH
2.  Uruguay +.5 -109 (2 units) - WIN
3.  SK / Greec under 2 -103 (2 units) and 0-0 at +600 (.5 unit) - PUSH (lose .5 unit)
4.  Argentina -200 (2 units to win 1 unit) - WIN
5.  USA / Eng over 2.5 +105 (2.5 units) - LOSS
6.  SLV / ALG - no bet
7.  Serbia +116 (2 units) - LOSS
8.  Australia +1 +106 (1 unit) - LOSS
9.  Netherlands -180 (1 unit) - WIN
10.  Cameroon +112 (.5 unit) - LOSS
11.  Paraguay +.5 (2.5 units) - WIN
12.  Slovakia -.5 -200 (risked 1 unit) - LOSS
13.  Ivory Coast / PTGL - no bet
14.  Bzl / NK - no bet
15.  Chile (2 units) - WIN
16.  Switz +1.5 (.5 unit) - WIN
17.  Uruguay PK -140 (5 units) - WIN
18.  Arg / SK over +108 (1 unit) - WIN
19.  Greece +.5 (2 units) - WIN
20.  France +138 (3 units) - LOSS
21.  Serbia +.5 +140 (1 unit) - WIN
22.  Slovenia +.5 -116 (1unit) - WIN
23.  Eng / Alg over 2.5 +108 (1 unit) - LOSS

Futures...

1.  Uruguay to advance +110 (2 units)
2.  Uruguay to win group A +400 (.5 unit)
3.  Argentina to win group B -220 (2 units)
4.  Nigeria NOT to advance -118 (2 units)
5.  England to win group C -320 (2 units)
6.  USA NOT to advance +112 (3 units)
7.  Serbia to win group D +330 (.5 unit)
8.  Germany NOT to advance +387 (.5 unit)
9.  Netherlands to win group E -145 (4 units)
10.  Denmark to advance +105 (1 unit)
11.  Japan zero points +360 (1 unit) - LOSS
12.  Paraguay win group F +340 (1.5 units)
13.  NZ no poings +100 (1 unit) - SICK LOSS
14.  Portugal to advane -110 (1.5 units)
15.  NK zero points -140 (2 units)
16.  Switz to advance +160 (1 unit)
17.  Argentina to win tournament +725 (6 units risked)
18.  Argentina / Neth final +3300 (.5 unit)
19.  No african team to advance +1200 (1 unit)
20.  No african team qtr finals +165 (2 units)

Saturday June 19

24.  Netherlands / Japan - Netherlands -200 (4 units to win 2 units) - Lots of juice to lay here, but I just cant see the Dutch not winning this one.  If you would have told me pretournament that I could get -200 on this at gametime I would have been very happy - sticking to that formula.  The Dutch will do everything Cameroon was unable to do - string passes together in the midfield - attack with precision - and minimize their speed advantage.  The Dutch creativity will be way too much for a very pedestrian Japanese side.  Predicted final score - Netherlands 3 Japan 0

25.  Australia / Ghana - Australia +.5 -112 (3 units) - Australia got thrashed at the hands of the Germans in their first game.  But this side is not as bad as they looked, and Ghana not as good.  I dont think the Aussies are as panicked as everyone in the media is about their performance - they just know that they have to go out and win their next two and they advance.  Im looking for them to regroup and put out a good showing against a side that beat a lackluster Serbia side at their worst.  Cahilll is out, Aussies are underdogs - I think that might just piss them off enough to come out and fight.  Final score prediction - Australia 2 Ghana 1

26.  Denmark / Cameroon - Denmark PK -122 (3 units) - Honestly, this line has me perplexed.  I dont know why Denmark isnt a bigger fav in this one, after a lifeless showing from Cameroon in the first game.  Cameroon showed no signs of being dangerous around the net against the Japanese - I just cant see them breaking down a stingy and disciplined Denmark defense.  I think the Danes come away with a clean sheet here - and pop at least one or two in to put them right back in the mix for second place in the group.  Predicted final score - Denmark 2 Cameroon 0.

Sunday June 20

27.  Paraguay / Slovakia - Paraguay +112 (3 units) - All things point to Paraguay here for me - the devastating way Slovakia dropped points to New Zealand at the death - along with a Paraguayan team that must be feeling very good about themselves after holding the world champs to a draw.  There is talk that Roque Santa Cruz might start, and Cordozo is ready too.  Marek Hamsik will see much of the same close marking and frustration he found against NZ in Paraguay - and Paraguay will wear down Slovakia - a team that is desperate for a win and will not settle for a draw here with Italy on deck - which will open them up at the back.  Only worry here is that Paraguay would probably be happy with a draw. Predicted Final score - Paraguay 2-0.

28.  Italy / New Zealand - No Bet - I dont see much to bet here - I thought about a small play on Italy -1.5 but I came to my senses.  Buffon is definitely out, and Italy love to play in 1 goal games - I just cant see them not winning here - but by how much?  Predicted final score - Italy 2-0.

29.  Brazil / Ivory Coast - Ivory Coast +.5 +130 (.5 unit) - This is a straight value play - just think this price is a little high.  Im not sure Brazil is clicking yet, and if the IC plays a full 90 they might just hold them here.  The scary part is that I think the IC would be happy with a 1 goal loss - as they really are battling it out with Portugal for the 2nd spot and might have to beat them on goal differential - so just a mini bet for me - and I wouldnt bet this any lower than about +120 or so.  Predicted final score - Brazil 1 IC 1.

GL all

Jeff Agoos.  Now theres a name I have tried to forget for many years.

Honestly - if they tried Spector, Bornestein, or Goodson I wouldnt care if they let in 10 goals.  Just do something different.

I am no genius - but this is as obvious to me as my football "let them score" debate - and I dont think anyone else sees it.  I have been yelling at my tv at this guy for 6 years.  BOTH GOALS TODAY WERE CLEARLY AND 100% HIS FAULT.

If you have them on DVR, freeze it when the Slovenia shooter on the first goal gets the pass.  Look at the fact that there are 3 white shirts in front of him, all with a blue shirt within 2 yards of each.  Then look a the shooters man - ONYEWU - who is 12 yards in back of him.  He makes one move with the ball - ONYEWU stands there like a baseball catcher.  He shoots, Onyewu ducks.

Then the second goal. freeze it and you will see he is 8 yards behind the line of 3 USA defenders - playing the Slovenian onside. 

I just dont get it.

Van, when you are finding the .5 line do you use a short cut, chart, or long arthimetic? I only know the long way.

For example c-d=d(x)-a

Quote Originally Posted by thabeest:

https://www.absoluteodds.com/calculator.aspx

Bottom left double chance calculator is a useful one


Good luck with your bets, van. Nice start with 2-0 already today.

I actually looked at this - and unless I am misunderstanding something - their math is wrong....

For instance, enter 2.0 and 3.0 - like you would win +200 on a draw, and +300 on a win.  They suggest a 6/4 ratio, and that it pays 1.20 overall.  I calculate a ratio of 3/4, and -140 overall.

I dont think they take in to account that you LOSE one of the bets, they are only trying to make the winnings equal, but the winnings have to be equal AFTER you take off the amount of the losing bet.

Agree?

I have a spreadsheet - Im not smart enough to articulate it algabraicly....

Quote Originally Posted by arkadymo:

Not trying to be difficult but England theoretically could advance with the same goal differential in the final game compared to the USA.  For instance, they could win 5-4 while the US wins 1-0.  Obviously not likely, but possible.

Didnt think of that.  You are right.

They would have to score a lot of goals to make up the goals scored category, but possible.

fwiw

the highest altitude have witnessed the higher goals/game avg...
to 1499 metres.. = 1.466/game (15 games)
1500 plus metres = 2.625/game (8 games)

these are the group games remaining at 1500+ metres -

6/19 Ghana v. Australia

6/20 Brazil v. Ivory Coast

6/21 Spain v. Honduras

6/22 Mexico v. Urugay

6/23 Ghana v. Germany

6/24 Slovakia v. Italy

6/24 Denmark v. Japan

Good info betcrimes....

Obviously new at gambing numbers if I do the long math.  Appreciated your incite, expertise and so forth, with continue to  ask your advice and opinion.

GL...

No problem.

Saturday June 19

24.  Netherlands / Japan - Netherlands -200 (4 units to win 2 units) - Lots of juice to lay here, but I just cant see the Dutch not winning this one.  If you would have told me pretournament that I could get -200 on this at gametime I would have been very happy - sticking to that formula.  The Dutch will do everything Cameroon was unable to do - string passes together in the midfield - attack with precision - and minimize their speed advantage.  The Dutch creativity will be way too much for a very pedestrian Japanese side.  Predicted final score - Netherlands 3 Japan 0

25.  Australia / Ghana - Australia +.5 -112 (3 units) - Australia got thrashed at the hands of the Germans in their first game.  But this side is not as bad as they looked, and Ghana not as good.  I dont think the Aussies are as panicked as everyone in the media is about their performance - they just know that they have to go out and win their next two and they advance.  Im looking for them to regroup and put out a good showing against a side that beat a lackluster Serbia side at their worst.  Cahilll is out, Aussies are underdogs - I think that might just piss them off enough to come out and fight.  Final score prediction - Australia 2 Ghana 1

26.  Denmark / Cameroon - Denmark PK -122 (3 units) - Honestly, this line has me perplexed.  I dont know why Denmark isnt a bigger fav in this one, after a lifeless showing from Cameroon in the first game.  Cameroon showed no signs of being dangerous around the net against the Japanese - I just cant see them breaking down a stingy and disciplined Denmark defense.  I think the Danes come away with a clean sheet here - and pop at least one or two in to put them right back in the mix for second place in the group.  Predicted final score - Denmark 2 Cameroon 0.

BIG DAY TODAY - start it off Holland....

GOOOOOOOOOD LUCK VAN!!!

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