World Cup Preview and First Round Game picks thread.....

Nice win on Paraguay.  The England and USA futures were big swings for your current profit/loss total.  Holland will swing you right back if they hold on today.

Im glad I took Japan today.

I would be very upset with that lame performance by Denmark.

Current Record 21-11 (futures not included until after all group games are finished)
Up 44.34 units, Down 17.59 units
TOTAL - Up +26.75 units

Previous games...

1.  SA / Mex over 2 -122 (1.5 units) -  PUSH
2.  Uruguay +.5 -109 (2 units) - WIN
3.  SK / Greec under 2 -103 (2 units) and 0-0 at +600 (.5 unit) - PUSH (lose .5 unit)
4.  Argentina -200 (2 units to win 1 unit) - WIN
5.  USA / Eng over 2.5 +105 (2.5 units) - LOSS
6.  SLV / ALG - no bet
7.  Serbia +116 (2 units) - LOSS
8.  Australia +1 +106 (1 unit) - LOSS
9.  Netherlands -180 (1 unit) - WIN
10.  Cameroon +112 (.5 unit) - LOSS
11.  Paraguay +.5 (2.5 units) - WIN
12.  Slovakia -.5 -200 (risked 1 unit) - LOSS
13.  Ivory Coast / PTGL - no bet
14.  Bzl / NK - no bet
15.  Chile (2 units) - WIN
16.  Switz +1.5 (.5 unit) - WIN
17.  Uruguay PK -140 (5 units) - WIN
18.  Arg / SK over +108 (1 unit) - WIN
19.  Greece +.5 (2 units) - WIN
20.  France +138 (3 units) - LOSS
21.  Serbia +.5 +140 (1 unit) - WIN
22.  Slovenia +.5 -116 (1unit) - WIN
23.  Eng / Alg over 2.5 +108 (1 unit) - LOSS
24.  Netherlands -200 (2 units) - WIN
25.  Australia +.5 -112 (3 units) - WIN
26.  Denmark PK -122 (3 units) - WIN
27.  Paraguay -.5 +112 (3 units) - WIN
28.  Italy/NZ - No Bet
29.  CIV +.5 +130 (.5 unit) - LOSS
30.  Portugal / NK - No bet
31.  Switz / Chile - No bet
32.  Spain / Honduras - No bet
33.  S Africa PK +135 (2 units) - WIN
34.  Urg / Mex No Draw +130 (2 units) - WIN
35.  Argtna / Grc - No bet
36.  S Korea PK -123 (2 units) - PUSH
37.  USA +100 (3 units) - WIN
38.  Eng / Slv Under 2.5 - 120 (1 unit) - WIN
39.  Serbia -107 (3 units) - LOSS
40.  Germany -185 (3 units) - WIN
41.  Paraguay -1 -125 (1 unit) - LOSS
42.  Italy -1 -113 (1 unit) - LOSS
43.  Holland / Cam - No bet
44.  Japan +.5 -130 (1 unit) - WIN

Futures...  (Not included in total record until next round)

Current Record  6-8
Up 17.3 Units, Down 14.4 units
Total Up +2.9 units

1.  Uruguay to advance +110 (2 units) - WIN 
2.  Uruguay to win group A +400 (.5 unit) - WIN
3.  Argentina to win group B -220 (2 units) - WIN 
4.  Nigeria NOT to advance -118 (2 units) - WIN  
5.  England to win group C -320 (2 units) - LOSS
6.  USA NOT to advance +112 (3 units) - LOSS
7.  Serbia to win group D +330 (.5 unit) - LOSS
8.  Germany NOT to advance +387 (.5 unit) - LOSS
9.  Netherlands to win group E -145 (4 units) - WIN
10.  Denmark to advance +105 (1 unit) - LOSS
11.  Japan zero points +360 (1 unit) - LOSS
12.  Paraguay win group F +340 (1.5 units) - WIN
13.  NZ no poings +100 (1 unit) -  LOSS
14.  Portugal to advane -110 (1.5 units)
15.  NK zero points -140 (2 units)
16.  Switz to advance +160 (1 unit)
17.  Argentina to win tournament +725 (6 units risked)
18.  Argentina / Neth final +3300 (.5 unit)
19.  No african team to advance +1200 (1 unit) - Loss
20.  No african team qtr finals +165 (2 units)

Friday June 25

45.  Ivory Coast / N Korea - Over 2.5 -110 (2 units) - This game points to over for me for a number of reasons.  North Korea has already proven that they play in high goal affairs - playing in a 3 goal game and a 7 goal game - especially once the first goal is scored.  They did hold Brazil down in the first game, but once the first Brazil goal came, and NK had to be more industrious, the game opened up.  The situation here is what really dictates and over though - as Ivory Coast needs a ton of goals.  There is talk that they will start 3 dedicated strikers up front, and they will be attack minded all day - there wont be any sitting on the ball if they get up 2-1 - they will try to run it up.  And I also think the NK side will be more open too - they have nothing to lose - and although a draw would be great for them - I see them on the back foot all day.  IC has had trouble getting opportunities - only finishing one in their first 2 games - but that was against Brazil and Portugal - this should be a whole lot different.  The quicker the first goal comes - the better for multiple goals afterwards - but I see them coming tomorrow.  Final score prediction CIV 4 NK 1.

46.  Brazil / Portugal - No Bet - I dont see much to like here.  Although either of these two teams win the group with a win, actually winning this group might or might not be a good thing with the uncertainty of where Spain will finish in their group.  I cant see either side being too motivated here - except Portugal to not let up multiple goals - and I dont even think Brazil will be of that mindset either.  People were talking of the Uruguay / Mexico game as a possible fix / agreement because of the situation - but this one seems even worse to me as I dont see any motivation on either side here - anything could happen - unless CIV is up 6-0 in the first half of their game.  Count me out.  Final score prediction Brazil 0 Portugal 0.   

47.   Switzerland / Honduras - Switzerland -186 (2 units) Switzerland -1 -106 (1 unit) - The Swiss enter this game knowing that if they win by 2 goals, they go through.  There is a good likelihood that this group will end with three teams on 6 points, and all three of those candidates control their own destiny entering the final game.  Honduras has played 2 games, and has had 2 shots on goal.  Yes - 2 shots in 2 games.  They have looked disorganized, inept, and against Spain they could have easily let up 10 goals.  I expect them to be in "go for broke" mode against Switzerland - but guess what - you picked the wrong team to do that against.  The Swiss have proven again this tournament that they are one of the best defensive teams in the world - yes the world - finally giving up their first goal in the 70th minute last game in their last 5 WC games - and that was playing 60 minutes with 10 men.  The Swiss havent been an offensive powerhouse either - but I think there are good reasons for that - they got up 1-0 on Spain in the first half and sat on the lead - and they lost a man at 30 mins against Chile and tried to sit on a draw.  But their future is in their hands - and if they win by 2 they go through no matter what happens in the other game - and I dont see Honduras stopping them in any way.  Senderos is out, but Frei is in.  The Swiss keep a clean sheet and advance. Final score prediction Switzerland 2 Honduras 0

48.  Spain / Chile - Spain -200 (2 units) Spain -1 -120 (1 unit).  Chile advances with a win or a draw, and is most likely out - even with 6 points - with a loss unless they lose by exactly 1 goal and the Swiss win by exactly 1 goal and the Swiss score exactly one goal more than Chile - they would go to a lottery with the Swiss.  So if the Swiss win, Chile basically at least needs to draw to have hope.  Chile has had a strange 2 games so far - totally dominating Honduras - hitting 20 shots - a bunch on net - but only scoring one goal.  In the other game - same situation - a ton of chances but only scoring one against ten men Switzerland - and almost giving up the equalizer in the 90th minute (one of the worst misses of the tournament so far).  Amazingly, Chiles goalkeeper has only made 3 saves in 2 games.  That changes tomorrow.  Spain have also had finishing problems - taking target practice on both the Swiss and Honduras - but only netting 2.  I think the big problem in this game is that Chile is a run and gun team - with a score more than you mentality - but they might think they need to defend in this one.  That wont work against Spain - and once Spain scores once - an open game presents a talent mismatch for Chile.  Spain should be starting Torres and Villa up front, and if they do what they did in their first two games in the midfield they will find the net multiple times.  Sadly, Chile is going home - they dont deserve it - but fall victim to goal differential in a tough group.  Final score prediciton Spain 3 Chile 1.

GL all.  Almost time to let this thread die a well deserved and honored death - the knockout round means a new thread.

Agreed.  Go USA.

No Onyewu hopefully.

Better writups today.  I think you are on to something here.

Thanks very much.

My thoughts are that that is a bad line.  Close to a PK is what it should be, maybe -115 at the most....

Will be writing these up tomorrow....

Quote Originally Posted by taurus:



Me too.
Care to comment on the reason(s) behind the switching back and forth of your avatar?
And do we agree that Switzerland has an uphill fight to advance ?

Avatar is soccerball for WC....

I think Switzerland advances tomorrow.

That must have paid nice - like +500 or so?

Glad you won, hope it continues.

Friday June 25

45.  Ivory Coast / N Korea - Over 2.5 -110 (2 units) - This game points to over for me for a number of reasons.  North Korea has already proven that they play in high goal affairs - playing in a 3 goal game and a 7 goal game - especially once the first goal is scored.  They did hold Brazil down in the first game, but once the first Brazil goal came, and NK had to be more industrious, the game opened up.  The situation here is what really dictates and over though - as Ivory Coast needs a ton of goals.  There is talk that they will start 3 dedicated strikers up front, and they will be attack minded all day - there wont be any sitting on the ball if they get up 2-0 - they will try to run it up.  And I also think the NK side will be more open too - they have nothing to lose - and although a draw would be great for them - I see them on the back foot all day.  IC has had trouble getting opportunities - only finishing one in their first 2 games - but that was against Brazil and Portugal - this should be a whole lot different.  The quicker the first goal comes - the better for multiple goals afterwards - but I see them coming tomorrow.  Final score prediction CIV 4 NK 1.

46.  Brazil / Portugal - No Bet - I dont see much to like here.  Although either of these two teams win the group with a win, actually winning this group might or might not be a good thing with the uncertainty of where Spain will finish in their group.  I cant see either side being too motivated here - except Portugal to not let up multiple goals - and I dont even think Brazil will be of that mindset either.  People were talking of the Uruguay / Mexico game as a possible fix / agreement because of the situation - but this one seems even worse to me as I dont see any motivation on either side here - anything could happen - unless CIV is up 6-0 in the first half of their game.  Count me out.  Final score prediction Brazil 0 Portugal 0.   

47.   Switzerland / Honduras - Switzerland -186 (2 units) Switzerland -1 -106 (1 unit) - The Swiss enter this game knowing that if they win by 2 goals, they go through.  There is a good likelihood that this group will end with three teams on 6 points, and all three of those candidates control their own destiny entering the final game.  Honduras has played 2 games, and has had 2 shots on goal.  Yes - 2 shots in 2 games.  They have looked disorganized, inept, and against Spain they could have easily let up 10 goals.  I expect them to be in "go for broke" mode against Switzerland - but guess what - you picked the wrong team to do that against.  The Swiss have proven again this tournament that they are one of the best defensive teams in the world - yes the world - finally giving up their first goal in the 70th minute last game in their last 5 WC games - and that was playing 60 minutes with 10 men.  The Swiss havent been an offensive powerhouse either - but I think there are good reasons for that - they got up 1-0 on Spain in the first half and sat on the lead - and they lost a man at 30 mins against Chile and tried to sit on a draw.  But their future is in their hands - and if they win by 2 they go through no matter what happens in the other game - and I dont see Honduras stopping them in any way.  Senderos is out, but Frei is in.  The Swiss keep a clean sheet and advance. Final score prediction Switzerland 2 Honduras 0

48.  Spain / Chile - Spain -200 (2 units) Spain -1 -120 (1 unit).  Chile advances with a win or a draw, and is most likely out - even with 6 points - with a loss unless they lose by exactly 1 goal and the Swiss win by exactly 1 goal and the Swiss score exactly one goal more than Chile - they would go to a lottery with the Swiss.  So if the Swiss win, Chile basically at least needs to draw to have hope.  Chile has had a strange 2 games so far - totally dominating Honduras - hitting 20 shots - a bunch on net - but only scoring one goal.  In the other game - same situation - a ton of chances but only scoring one against ten men Switzerland - and almost giving up the equalizer in the 90th minute (one of the worst misses of the tournament so far).  Amazingly, Chiles goalkeeper has only made 3 saves in 2 games.  That changes tomorrow.  Spain have also had finishing problems - taking target practice on both the Swiss and Honduras - but only netting 2.  I think the big problem in this game is that Chile is a run and gun team - with a score more than you mentality - but they might think they need to defend in this one.  That wont work against Spain - and once Spain scores once - an open game presents a talent mismatch for Chile.  Spain should be starting Torres and Villa up front, and if they do what they did in their first two games in the midfield they will find the net multiple times.  Sadly, Chile is going home - they dont deserve it - but fall victim to goal differential in a tough group.  Final score prediciton Spain 3 Chile 1.

GL all.  Almost time to let this thread die a well deserved and honored death - the knockout round means a new thread.

*****Corrected "2-1" to "2-0" in the Ivory Coast writeup.....

By taking spain on the ML - I lose on a draw.  That is the way betting soccer on a 3 way line works.

I am not "assuring" anything.

I would need a NASA supercomputer to figure out how to hedge that - but if the Swiss win by more than Spain tomorrow - you win - so make it simple and root for that.

Nice call on Japan. Bounce back day for you tomorrow. Your picks look dead on per usual

Vanzack - great thread.  Look forward to the Knock-out Round thread.  Appreciate the write-ups - I don't know Jack about "Futbol", but your write-ups are solid.  I have tailed on a few plays and have made a few clams in the process.

Thx