World Cup Preview and First Round Game picks thread.....

The time is upon us again – the best month of every four years is here.  This will be the first WC I have missed in person since Italy 1990, because of safety concerns in South Africa – but will be handicapping it all the way through.

This preview and power ratings are designed as a snapshot PRE TOURNAMENT.  Things happen quickly – injuries, playing form, suspensions etc – so please read this only as wagers and rankings that are being made as of today pre-tournament.  I will go group by group and give my opinions on each country, my predictions of the whole brackets down to the final, and my current power rankings which I will update as we move through the tournament.

As for the groups….

Group A:    As a whole, group A is one of the weakest groups in the tournament.  France is considered the favorite – but comes limping in after winning a dubious playoff against Ireland with the Henry handball incident.  Injuries to Gallas and Diarra don’t help the cause.  With France underperforming, and using some aging veterans to anchor the team – Im not betting on Anelka, Ribbery, and Henry being able to carry this team very far.  They benefit from a weak group here.   Uruguay comes out of a playoff win to make the WC finals finishing 5^th in the tough South American qualification region.  Diego Forlan is clearly the veteran leader of this team – and I have them edging out Mexico and South Africa to advance.   Mexico get plenty of chances on net – but have trouble converting them – and have recently been exposed at the back giving up bad goals multiple times.  South Africa benefit from being the home squad – something that has been very beneficial in previous WC’s, but this team is weak.  Very weak.  Even with the home advantage – they will struggle.

Handicapping analysis and bets:  I will be betting Uruguay to advance at +110 for 2 units, and Uruguay to win the group at +400 (.5 units).  The group win bet has more to do with the schedule than anything else – France might have already qualified by the last game against South Africa – and SA might already be out hoping to give the home fans a show.  Uruguay has the best shot to sneak up there and steal the group – and at 4-1 I will take that chance. 

Predicted Group A Finish (country, points):

1.  France 6

2.  Uruguay 5

3.  Mexico 4

4.  South Africa 0

Group B:  Argentina has the most individual talent in the tournament.  The are loaded with players who have big game experience, and they have playmakers that can single handedly take over games.  Just look at the forwards:  Messi, Milito, Tevez – now that is firepower – and it doesn’t stop there – with a rock solid defense and world class players at every postion – on paper this is the best team at the WC.  Now enter their coach – Maradona.  The team is as erratic as their coach’s personality – as shown by their 4^th place finishing in qualification and barely even making this tournament.  They lost to Bolivia a year ago 6-1.  Im banking on them overcoming their coaching shortcomings – and making the finals.  Argentina get 9 points out of this group.  The three other teams in the group are pretty similar in terms of talent and capabilities.  Greece plays their usual attempt to knock off Italian soccer – by playing defensive all game and trying to steal goals in transition.  This led to scoring 10 goals in 10 qualification games, but only giving up 10.  But they did ride this to success in winning one of the biggest upsets in any major soccer tournament ever in the Euro 04.  Nigeria is overrated and riding on their reputation.  They will still try to outscore you, but I don’t see them matching up well against Greece or even South Korea.  6 months ago they went to PK’s with Zambia and lost to Ghana and Egypt in the ACON.   They will be playing 3 disciplined teams – Nigeria bows out early.  South Korea has done little outside of their home WC – and I don’t expect much more from them here – will not be advancing.

 Handicapping analysis and bets:  I will be on Argentina to win the group at -220 (2 units), and Nigeria NOT to advance at -118 (2 units).  Just cant see any other result except Argentina winning, and I will take Greece and SK against Nigeria at almost even to advance.

Predicted Group B Finish (country, points):

1.  Argentina 9

2.  Greece 6

3.  Nigeria 3

4.  South Korea 0

Group C:  The day after the draw, one of the English tabloids had the headline (descending vertically) England, Algeria, Slovenia, Yanks – spelling out EASY.  They are right.  England will cruise through this group – but I don’t see a bright future for the three lions after that.  England, odds-wise – IMO are one of the most overrated teams in this tournament.  They are the third favorite at about 6-1 – without a scent of a defense.  Their defense – to put it nicely – is a mess and will be their downfall.  We all know Rooney can score, and the midfield is above average – but there will be a game in the knockouts when they give up 3+ goals and it will be lights out.  But they benefit from the easiest matchups in the group stage possible – and will cruise earning 9 points with ease – which will set them up to be very overpriced in the knockouts – and I expect one of my biggest wagers of the tournament will be on them to lose one of those games.  England are my first “Kim Kardashian” team in this preview – great up front but terrible in the rear.  The USA is a mess, has injuries, lack of midfield play, cant hold possession, and worst of all a defense that is a wreck.  On the good side – the USA has goalkeeping – but that wont be enough.  Losing games like the 4-2 loss against the Czech B side will continue here.  I don’t see much hope.  They shouldn’t advance, and if they do, it will only because of the ineptitude of Slovenia and Algeria.  Slovenia qualified against a very good Russian side in a playoff on the away goals rule – by playing their brand of sit back and wait.  This team is very stingy at the back, and plays a counter attacking style that only allowed 4 goals against in 10 games of qualifying.  Algeria surprised Egypt to get here – and knocked out media darling Ivory Coast out of the ACN back in January.  Little known, underrated, and potentially dangerous.

Handicapping analysis and bets:  There is no way England doesn’t win this group.  Im uncomfortable laying -320, but did it anyway for 2 units.  I also took the USA NOT to advance at +112 (3 units) – I will take my chances with Slovenia and Algeria – I feel like Im getting 2 of 3 evenly matched teams at even money.  I hope England just racks it up and wins every game by multiple goals – setting up a huge underdog opportunity in the knockouts for their opponents…..

Predicted Group C Finish (country, points):

1.  England 9

2.  Slovenia 2

3.  Algeria 2

4.  USA 2

Group D:  For my money, Group D is the closest matched group from top to bottom of them all.  Germany is the favorite to take the group and advance for the millionth time in a row, but it wont be a cakewalk for them.   Captain Ballack is out, but more importantly is depth and talent – this squad just isn’t as talented as previous German squads – and I wouldn’t be terribly surprised to see them get squeezed out of advancing – but then again they always advance and almost always far – so on pedigree alone they are worth a look.  They qualified easily from a group that really only included Russia as any competition – only giving up 5 goals in 10 games – but Im not sold on them having the goods to go very far.  Serbia have the potential to leave their mark on this tournament – and that starts with a very solid defense led by Vidic of ManU.  They came out of a tough qualification group that included France, Romania, Austria, and Lithuania – coming out on top – and only giving up 8 goals in 10 games (2 of which were against Lithuania after they qualified and were resting players).  They are also fairly potent up front, and can open up the offense through midfield possession quite nicely.  I like the balance of this side.  Australia is very similar to the side that got screwed 4 years ago on a dubious penalty call on a patented Italian dive in extra time.  This team is also dangerous, and could easily make a run with Kewell, Emerton, Schwartzer, and Cahill anchoring a side that is pretty loaded with international players.  Ghana is probably the best talented African team from top to bottom – but can never seem to pull it together.  They did well 4 years ago – and made it to the final of the ACN in January.  Essien is out – and you cant underscore how big of a deal that is.  I think they fall victim to a very tough group – and have moments of lack of concentration and typical harsh play which will cost them.

Handicapping Analysis and Bets:  I will take a small shot on Serbia stealing the group at +330 for .5 unit, and Germany NOT to advance at +375 for .5 unit.  Otherwise – I don’t see much to bet here.

Predicted Group D Finish (country, points):

1.  Germany 5

2.  Serbia 5

3.  Ghana 2

4.  Australia 2

Group E:  The Netherlands are back with a ridiculously talented team.  So what’s new?  They always look unbeatable on paper, and then always manage to play 3 or 4 great games, and one stinker and done.   Will they be able to overcome the history of losing like in Euro 08 to Russia after looking like world beaters in their first 3 games?   I’m thinking they might – but like someone who has been burned by an unfaithful friend – I can’t trust them.  Sneijder, Robben, Van Persie, Kuyt, Van Bommel, Heitinga, Van der Vart – the list goes on and on – they are simply loaded and should breeze through the group.  But they are in the tough side of the draw and potentially will have to play Italy, Brazil, and England on their way to the final – and then beat a good team there – and I just don’t trust them to be consistent enough to do it.  Right up there with the top teams in the tournament in talent, and if they put it together for 7 games I would not be surprised to see them lift the Cup.  Denmark topped a qualification group that included Portugal, Sweden, and Hungary – and possess a world class striker in Nicklas Bendtner – so sleep on this team at your own peril.  A very balanced team that is able to adapt to opponents style.   Cameroon is back – the African country with the most world cup appearances – but I don’t look for them to go very far.  Their undisciplined rough play, along with defensive lapses have typically been their downfall – but they have also recently added scoring inconsistency which saw them lose to Zambia in the ACN 1-0, and then getting bounced by eventual champions Egypt.  Eto’o is a great striker, but can’t do it alone.  Way too much inconsistency to make a run here.  Im not going to spend much time talking about Japan, because they should be terrible and they are basically made up of almost all J-League players.  Not much talent, and are happy just to be there.

Handicapping Analysis and Bets:  The Dutch win this group easily – and I will gladly lay -145 for 4 units.  I will also take Denmark to advance at +105 for 1 unit.  I also took Japan to get 0 points at +360 for 1 unit.

Predicted Group E Finish (country, points):

1.  Netherlands 9

2.  Denmark 6

3.  Cameroon 3

4.  Japan 0

Group F:  The Italians are considered the favorites of this group, but this is an aging Italian squad full of experience – but maybe not the staying power to go all the way.  They will play their typical defense first and counterattack second strategy (with lots of diving along the way).  Don’t be surprised to see some low scoring draws out of the Italians early in the tournament – more than anyone this team plays the WC like it is a month long event – they don’t blow their wads too early (you reading that freaky deaky Dutch boys?).  They will advance, but wont go far in the knockouts.  Paraguay qualified 3^rd (ahead of Argentina, and only 1 point back from group leader Brazil) over the treacherous South American (18 games) qualification process.  This is a talented side, and can play with the best of them – and carry a lot of value because they are quietly underrated and unknown.  Unfortunately – their best player got shot in the head in Mexico (lesson - don’t go to a bar in Mexico) – but they replace his scoring with Roque Santa Cruz – a Premier League stalwart who wont be much of a drop off.  Slovakia qualified in a group ahead of Slovenia, Poland, the Czechs – so this is a battle tested team.  They are quite balanced and should be just a step away from getting out of this group.  New Zealand is garbage.  No points for you – and you will like it!  This side goes home empty handed.

Handicapping Analysis and Bets:  Key game right off the bat in Italy vs Paraguay.  I am on Paraguay to win the group at +340 for 1.5 units, and NZ to get 0 points at +100 for 1 unit.

Predicted Group F Finish (country, points):

1.  Paraguay 7

2.  Italy 5

3.  Slovakia 4

4.  New Zealand 0

Group G:  Brazil are loaded as usual.  Its always the same – can this team of outstanding individuals gel in time for the important games at the end of the tournament?  Getting out of the group is a shoe-in, can they play together as a team in the knock out stage?  Good defense, midfield, and offense – with depth to boot.  This is a team that could win it all – but if they win their group will be on the tough side of the draw – and might need to put together 4 great games against some very stiff competition.  Portugal are curiously written off as a non-contender.  Most believe the golden age of soccer in Portugal has come and gone, and that this country has proven that they don’t have what it takes to go far in international tournaments.  To me that means undervalued.  I see no reason why this team cant make a run behind one of the worlds best in Ronaldo – with support from Deco, Carvalho, Nani, Simao – it’s a pretty loaded team for one that is being trashed as a non-contender.  Almost in direct contrast to Portugal is the Ivory Coast – which is the public darling of the African teams.  Yes – they probably the most talented side coming out of Africa this year – but I until this team or other African team proves they can go deep – Im not buying – especially at the high prices the books are charging.  We all know Drogba can take over a game – but the individuals on this side are either great or very weak – with too many holes to compensate for.  This is a team that lost to Algeria 6 months ago in the CAN – giving up a goal with a typical lack of concentration on virtually the last kick of the game.  Im not buying what the media and the books are selling on this side – they are overpriced.  North Korea is a mystery – nobody knows much about them – except that they are going to get waxed and waxed relentlessly in this group.  No points for you!!

Handicapping Analysis and Bets:  I got Portugal to advance at -110 when the lines first came out for 1.5 units.  They are currently about -150, and I wouldn’t lay that much.  I also have NK to get 0 points at -140 for 2 units.

Predicted Group G Finish (country, points):

1.  Brazil 9

2.  Portugal 6

3.  Ivory Coast 3

4.  NK 0

Group H:  Im running out of steam with this preview…. But Spain are worthy of discussion.  The overall betting favorite – and coming off of their win at Euro 08 they should be.  This team has discipline and flair, offense and defense – and depth – just loaded.  But I cant back a side that is getting 4-1 on this tournament, and a side that will be overpriced (if that’s possible) in almost every game they are in.  We all know they will win this group fairly easily – so since my fingers are about to fall off Im moving on to Switzerland.  Trivia note – quick – who is the only team in history to not allow a single goal in 4 games and still be eliminated from the WC?   If you guessed North Korea – you would be wrong – it was the Swiss in 06 – unbelievably letting in ZERO goals but losing in PK’s to the Ukraine in the round of 16.  That should tell you something about the way this side approaches things – if England is a Kim Kardashian team – the Swiss (and Greeks) are a JLo team (great in the back – not so great up front).  The Swiss qualified ahead of the Greeks giving up only 8 goals in 10 games, and amazingly scoring 18 – but given that they were against the likes of Luxembourg and Moldova – maybe we shouldn’t read too much in to that.  Chile have a resurgence going on – as they bounce between doormat and top flight team in South America.  They will be one of the most offensive minded teams at this tournament – looking to outscore their opponents.  I don’t like how this will play out for them against the Swiss – which will be the pivotal game in this group – as I think the Swiss will sit back and nail them on the counterattack and that will be Chile’s demise.  Honduras got in to this tournament at the last second on a goal in a totally different game – courtesy of the USA.  They will be outmatched in this group – might get a draw or two – but wont get out of the group. 

Handicapping Analysis and Bets:  I have the Swiss to advance at +160 for 1 unit.  That’s it for this group.

Predicted Group H Finish (country, points):

1.  Spain 9

2.  Switzerland 4

3.  Chile 3

4.  Honduras 1

Overall Notes and Analysis: 

1.  I have a BIG wager on Argentina to win it all starting at +780 all the way down to +670 for 6 units.

2.  I have an Argentina vs Netherlands final matchup at 33-1 for .5 unit

3.  USA NOT to advance at an average of +112 for 3 units.

4.  Netherlands to win their group at an average of -145 for 4 units (-145?  Seriously?)

5.  If results go the way the should – there will be a fairly unbalanced bracket for the knockout stages.  Be aware of this when handicapping this tournament.

Brackets:

Groups:

A1.  France

A2.  Uruguay

B1.  Argentina

B2.  Greece

C1.  England

C2.  Slovenia

D1.  Germany

D2.  Serbia

E1.  Netherlands

E2.  Denmark

F1.  Paraguay

F2.  Italy

G1.  Brazil

G2.  Portugal

H1.  Spain

H2.  Switzerland

Round of 16:

France over Greece

England over Serbia

Germany over Slovenia

Argentina over Uruguay

Netherlands over Italy

Brazil over Switzerland

Paraguay over Denmark

Spain over Portugal

Qtrs:

England over France

Netherlands over Brazil

Argentina over Germany

Spain over Paraguay

Semis:

Netherlands over England

Argentina over Spain

Finals:

Power Rankings (beginning of tournament – WILL CHANGE THROUGHOUT!!)

(rank, team, odds, power rating)

1   Argentina +715       95
2   Spain +410             92
3   Brazil +480             90
4   Holland +1200         90
5   Italy +1450              84
6   England +680          82
7   Germany +1500       82
8   Portugal +2800        73
9   France +2000          70
10  Paraguay +9000      67
11  Denmark +15000    65
12  Serbia +6000          64
13  Cote d' Ivoire +3000  62
14  Greece +18000        58
15  Switzerland +25000  56
16  Australia +15000       55
17  Ghana +8000            54
18  Uruguay +14000       50
19  Mexico +8000          48
20  Cameroon +10000     45
21  Nigeria +14000          45
22  South Korea +20000  44
23  Slovenia +45000        44
24  Chile +7500              44
25  Slovakia +40000        43
26  USA +8500               42
27  Algeria +55000          38
28  South Africa +20000  30
29  Japan +60000            25
30  Honduras +200000      23
31  New Zealand +250000  10
32  North Korea +250000  10

I will be picking games as they go - look for the first few days soon!!

GL all.

I FORGOT ONE OTHER PRE TOURNAMENT WAGER.....

No African teams to get out of group stage at +1200 for 1 unit.

No African teams to get to quarterfinals at +165 for 2 units.

1st game wager is in....

1.5 units on Over 2 goals Mexico / S Africa at -122.

Just see this as an open game with lots of scoring chances - Mexico should win but wouldnt be surprised if both teams score here.

France / Uruguay to follow....

Thx guys.

Correct.

France probably w/7 ????

for a different we see things, when all is said and done, we have a very similar final four and winner. I don't know how US only gets 2pts, and If You think Port have one of the best in the world, you can just say the same for IC. I think both teams have players that deal w/ not being surrounded by the same talent.

GL man

Quote Originally Posted by yuice20:

Great stuff as always. Do you have any top goal scorer wagers in mind?

Nah - think the teams that will go deep will spread the goals - certainly any team that plays North Korea will have a chance to have a multiple goal scorer - but I really dont know....