WC Thread

PENDING: All posted above

G10. FRI 6/26 GROUP I
Senegal -1½ -104 3U (vs Iraq NOW A PLAY ODDS UPDATED, a GAME 3) PENDING

G26. THU 6/25 GROUP F
Netherlands -1½ -239 6U (match 3 vs Tunisia) PENDING

I've got the Dutch winning it all, so I have to take this match, also Japan will not lose so the Dutch have to rul this match and they will dominate vs Tunisia

G30. THU 6/25 GROUP F
Japan -110 8U (match 3 vs Sweden)

Japan can't risk playing for the TIE. Sweden should be going all out playing for the win as they are 0 GD going into this match and need some help (meaning up their GD) to make any 3rd place - and they can't do that without a win now can they. This will be a battle and Japan knows the Netherlands will finish with 7 points, so no fooling around for the Samurai Blues

G31. THU 6/25 GROUP G
Egypt/Iran DRAW +160 3U (match 3)
So much love for Mo Salah! Would love to see Egypt make a run. Taking the draw because the odds say so  PENDING

FUTURES in post #1 also PENDING

@DiamondJack

@Barbarossa

 good to see you fine gentlemen

As mentioned in post #6 here, my avg bet size is 3U. 3U is my 1U so I can slide up and down without frequently resorting to fractions. 

6U is my usual max/large bet.

The 8U bet on G30 Japan is rare

I'll probably regret it

Adding on: (pendings are above post #27 and futures in the first post)

Spreading my standard 3U bet size among 4 different Ecuador/Germany bets

G32. THU 6/25 GROUP E  (vs Germany match 3) 
Ecuador +½ +150 1.5U  

G33. THU 6/25 GROUP E  (vs Germany match 3) 
Ecuador/Germany DRAW +370 .5U 

G34. THU 6/25 GROUP E  (vs Germany match 3) 
Ecuador/Germany  BTS 1H +280 .5U 

G35. THU 6/25 GROUP E  (vs Germany match 3) 
Enner Valencia 1 or more goals +298 .5U  (Kalshi)

Considered FG BTS and also considered the OVER 2½. Both look great but the price is right for the sportsbook, not the bettors, no value placing those bets, rolling the dice on a raucous 1H

Ecuador qualified 2nd in CONMEBOL just behind Argentina, finishing ahead of Colombia, Brazil, and Uruguay - yet their WC is 99% mathematically over, this is their big game. This will be an open game but I just can't take the high price on the total (OVER 2½ - 168, OUCH! If it were -145 I'd take it).

Germany could very well go up 1-0 or tie 1-1 and park the bus for the rest of the match. They don't have to win today, but winning is always nice.

I'm thinking this match probably lands on 1-1 or 2-2, more so 2-2 as I feel there will be a decent early Ecuador attack from the opening kick

I think Ecuador's showing is a lot lower than what they are capable of. It's just one of those things, this is not their cup and not their time to get out of the group, shit happens every cup, all the time a decent team just under performs in the group.

BOL 

Graded:

G32. THU 6/25 GROUP E  (vs Germany match 3)   +2.25U 
Ecuador +½ +150 1.5U  

G33. THU 6/25 GROUP E  (vs Germany match 3)   -0.50U
Ecuador/Germany DRAW +370 .5U 

G34. THU 6/25 GROUP E  (vs Germany match 3)  +1.40U
Ecuador/Germany  BTS 1H +280 .5U 

G35. THU 6/25 GROUP E  (vs Germany match 3)  -0.50U
Enner Valencia 1 or more goals +298 .5U  (Kalshi)

------------------------------------

Overall
18-13 = +16.88

@barneybeans

Suerte amigo!!

Eres Colombiano? 

Llevo 21 años viviendo en colombia, trabajando para una empresa estado unidense queda en NYC, mi jefe es un gringo rolo y me deja trabar desde mi casa en medallo. Gasto pesos gano dolares

En estos dias paso mucho en ee.uu cuidando a mi mamá. Cada mes regreso a colombia

ahora ud sabe demasiado!

De donde es, señor Fermin?

GLTA, looking at a match maybe later 

Pending:

G31. THU 6/25 GROUP G  PENDING
Egypt/Iran DRAW +160 3U

Adding on:

G36. FRI 6/26 GROUP G
Egypt/Iran 1H UN ½  +145 3U (match 3)

G37. FRI 6/26 GROUP G
Egypt/Iran  UN 1½  +152 3U (match 3)

BOL 

18-13 = +16.88

GRADED:

G10. FRI 6/26 GROUP I
Senegal -1½ -104 3U (vs Iraq GAME 3) +3.00U

G26. THU 6/25 GROUP F
Netherlands -1½ -239 6U (match 3 vs Tunisia) +6.00U

G30. THU 6/25 GROUP F
Japan -110 8U (match 3 vs Sweden) -8.80U

G31. THU 6/25 GROUP G
Egypt/Iran DRAW +160 3U (match 3) +4.80U

G36. FRI 6/26 GROUP G
Egypt/Iran 1H UN ½ +145 3U (match 3) -3.00U

G37. FRI 6/26 GROUP G
Egypt/Iran UN 1½ +152 3U (match 3) -3.00U

3-3 = -1.00U

Overall
21-16 = +15.88

This match is not a Dead Rubber match as I thought it would be due to the R32/R16 implications. This is going to be a great match regardless of outcome where two evenly matched team go head to head, something we usually don't see until R16 or in a group of death.

First the bet, then my bullshit ramble.

Building a profit if Colombia Wins or Draws: instead of a double chance (-130) which has worse odds, I'm going with a synthetic/two bets that work out to -118 on the Win/Draw:

G.38 SAT 6/27 GROUP K (match 3)
B1 Colombia PK/DNB +165 5U
B2 Colombia/Portugal TIE +280 2.17U

Col wins or Draws +6.08U on a 7.17 Risk (-118)

outcome scenarios math:

               B1        B2    
COL    +8.25     -2.17  = +6.08
DRAW  -0.00    +6.08 = +6.08
PORT   -5.00    -2.17   = -7.17

For shits and giggles, reporting here as a lean, not a countable, but I think it has teeth, on Fanduel I took:

Parlay: Colombia +1½; UN 3½; Luis Diaz to score or assist +340 1U

Finishing 1st in the group is huge for the path in the two knockouts. Martinez says he and Portugal are not even looking at that, Lorenzo says that he and Colombia are totally looking at that.

Colombia finishes first with win or draw

Lorenzo and Colombia will not lay down, play behind the ball nor play for the tie according to interviews in El Tiemp, El Espectador, WinSports and Caracol

He says he is making no lineup changes, but I suspect he will sub James if there is a lead at 60 mins -or- if James is not fit.

Lorenzo knows and everybody knows that Portugal's mudfield is the killer and that Vitinha is THE MOST Important player on Portugal - not CR7.

Portugal needs the win so should attack more, have more posession and have more players playing forward. This should open more space for Diaz, IMHO.

Colombia has a great backfield and if scoring first, the over is toast and at 60 mins Colombia will park the bus, as usual for most teams in that situation where GD doesn't matter.

Miami sunset occurs end of 1st half. It will be hot and humid, even after sunset. Right now @ 10:30 am EDT it's 88 degrees with a real feel 99. This slightly favors Colombia IMHO

Colombia has played better vs the same first two opponents so an apples to apples.

Lastly I'm also counting on a little continued Portuguese inner turmoil due to CR's selfishness, to add a quarter goal advantage to Colombia.

I have Colombia to win the group in post #1 F1

BOL 

In short:

G.38 SAT 6/27 GROUP K (match 3)  - PENDING

Colombia/Tie  Double Chance -118  7.17U

@barneybeans

 Nice stuff BB, I’m on Columbia as well, good luck 

Adding on: 

G39. SAT 6/27 GROUP J (match 3) 
Austria/Algeria Draw  +100 3U 

G40. SAT 6/27 GROUP J (match 3) 
Austria/Algeria NO SCORE +330 1U 

G41. SAT 6/27 GROUP J (match 3) 
Austria/Algeria 1H UN ½ +105 3U  (Kalshi)

BOL 

@yorosan

JERSEY CITY BAGEL GUY 

Adding on, because I'm a homer, and because I can't bet on a team that has a player named BRUNO, (I mean seriously, isn't he due on the Sopranos sequel?):

If you're smart you don't play this:

G42. SAT 6/27 GROUP K (match 3) 
Colombia +280  4U 

Pending:

G38. SAT 6/27 GROUP K (match 3)  Colombia/Tie  Double Chance -118  7.17U  - PENDING (the -118 is built into the 7.17 - see above post #39)

G39. SAT 6/27 GROUP J (match 3) Austria/Algeria Draw  +100 3U    - PENDING

G40. SAT 6/27 GROUP J (match 3)  Austria/Algeria NO SCORE +330 1U   - PENDING

G41. SAT 6/27 GROUP J (match 3)  Austria/Algeria 1H UN ½ +105 3U  (Kalshi)  - PENDING

BOL 

Graded, everything, Covers deleted my original post so now I have to do this all over again. I've said it for years, this website is shit on so many levels. In the real world this would not be acceptable to even present in RD to your team leader, let alone ready for UAT. An embarrassment. Just formatting text is a nightmare, phone or PC browser.

Group Stage matches all graded:

G38. SAT 6/27 GROUP K (match 3)  Colombia/Tie  Double Chance -118  7.17U 

+7.17U

G39. SAT 6/27 GROUP J (match 3) Austria/Algeria Draw  +100 3U   

+3.00U

G40. SAT 6/27 GROUP J (match 3)  Austria/Algeria NO SCORE +330 1U  

-1.00U

G41. SAT 6/27 GROUP J (match 3)  Austria/Algeria 1H UN ½ +105 3U  (Kalshi) 

-3.00U

G42. SAT 6/27 GROUP K (match 3)   Colombia +280  4U 

-4.00U

2-3 = +2.17U

------------------

GRADED Group Stage FUTURES

F1. Colombia wins Group K +210 3U

+6.30U

F2. Netherlands wins Group F -130 1U

+1.00U

F7. Australia Finish 4th in Group D +105 1U

-1.00U

2-1 = + 6.30U

Group Stage FINAL
25-20 = +24.35