My ranked 3s or weaker 2s to clobber the 4 in Group stage, thanks to GD being such a thing this WC:
Beware of Game 3! "NO play yet, a GAME 3" means it's on the radar but probably won't be a play - by the time it is, the odds will have greatly moved away while the teams involved are playing and off the board - Meaning if Game 3 were played 1st or maybe 2nd it would totally be a play
Note 3U is my normal, average bet size!
G2.FRI 6/12 GROUP B Switzerland -1½ -158 4U (vs Qatar - game 1!)
G3.SUN 6/14 GROUP D Turquía -1 +125 4U (vs Australia - game 1!) (-140/+200)
The pen is mightier than the pigs
0-0-0
$0.0
Group plays:
My ranked 3s or weaker 2s to clobber the 4 in Group stage, thanks to GD being such a thing this WC:
Beware of Game 3! "NO play yet, a GAME 3" means it's on the radar but probably won't be a play - by the time it is, the odds will have greatly moved away while the teams involved are playing and off the board - Meaning if Game 3 were played 1st or maybe 2nd it would totally be a play
Note 3U is my normal, average bet size!
G2.FRI 6/12 GROUP B Switzerland -1½ -158 4U (vs Qatar - game 1!)
G3.SUN 6/14 GROUP D Turquía -1 +125 4U (vs Australia - game 1!) (-140/+200)
You're probably asking because I have Colombia over Portugal, who has the best midfield in the entire WC, to win group K?
In the group Colombia is currently in Portugal's shadow. Colombia Game 1 should be at least 2-0 or most likely 3-0. I feel Colombia's attack will be more aggresive than Portugal's in their games 1 and 2 and both will enter game 3 with 6 points each and both will play for the tie with Colombia winning the group on GD. According to my crystal ball.
Luis Diaz golden boot is a long shot but the odds are pretty high, I had to take a shot with him. Somewhat as an homage to James winning it in Brazil 2014. James is a shadow of his former self but rocks whet it comes to creating space and feeding Diaz and Suarez.
Also good odds are Colombia to reach R16. As a gambler I had to take that bet.
As a fan I would take Colombia getting to quarters as they did in 2014. But my wallet said no.
Colombia loves the heat, prefers the heat.
So there, I am justifying my current Colombia bets, mostly because I see value
JMHO and GLTA
The pen is mightier than the pigs
Quote Originally Posted by Bet15:
@barneybeans Why so much love for Colombia?
I think I have more love for the Dutch.
You're probably asking because I have Colombia over Portugal, who has the best midfield in the entire WC, to win group K?
In the group Colombia is currently in Portugal's shadow. Colombia Game 1 should be at least 2-0 or most likely 3-0. I feel Colombia's attack will be more aggresive than Portugal's in their games 1 and 2 and both will enter game 3 with 6 points each and both will play for the tie with Colombia winning the group on GD. According to my crystal ball.
Luis Diaz golden boot is a long shot but the odds are pretty high, I had to take a shot with him. Somewhat as an homage to James winning it in Brazil 2014. James is a shadow of his former self but rocks whet it comes to creating space and feeding Diaz and Suarez.
Also good odds are Colombia to reach R16. As a gambler I had to take that bet.
As a fan I would take Colombia getting to quarters as they did in 2014. But my wallet said no.
Colombia loves the heat, prefers the heat.
So there, I am justifying my current Colombia bets, mostly because I see value
G1. GROUP K Colombia -1.5 +104 5U +5.20U (vs Uzbek game1!) G2. GROUP B Switzerland -1½ -158 4U -6.32U (vs Qatar - game 1!) G3. GROUP D Turquía -1 +125 4U -4.00U (vs Australia - game 1!) G4. GROUP H Uruguay -1½ +118 4U -4.00U (vs Saudi - game 1!) G5. WED 6/17 GROUP J Austria -1½ -115 4U +4.00U (vs Jordan - game 1!)
------------------------------------
Pending:
G6. SAT 6/20 GROUP H Ecuador -1½ -210 3U (vs Curacao - game 2)
G7. SUN 6/21 GROUP G Egypt -1 +205 3U (vs New Zealand - game 2)
G8. WED 6/23 GROUP C Morroco-1½ +-118 3U (vs Haiti NOW A PLAY ODDS UPDATED, a GAME 3)
G9. TUE 6/24 GROUP L Croatia -1½ +136 3U (vs Panama - game 2)
G10. FRI 6/26 GROUP I Senegal -1½ -104 3U (vs Iraq NOW A PLAY ODDS UPDATED, a GAME 3)
G11. SUN 6/21 GROUP F Japan -1½ +205 3U (vs Tunisia - game 2)
If I incorrectly typed a group letter or date just note that the opponent is listed
The pen is mightier than the pigs
2-3-0
-5.12U
GRADED:
G1. GROUP K Colombia -1.5 +104 5U +5.20U (vs Uzbek game1!) G2. GROUP B Switzerland -1½ -158 4U -6.32U (vs Qatar - game 1!) G3. GROUP D Turquía -1 +125 4U -4.00U (vs Australia - game 1!) G4. GROUP H Uruguay -1½ +118 4U -4.00U (vs Saudi - game 1!) G5. WED 6/17 GROUP J Austria -1½ -115 4U +4.00U (vs Jordan - game 1!)
------------------------------------
Pending:
G6. SAT 6/20 GROUP H Ecuador -1½ -210 3U (vs Curacao - game 2)
G7. SUN 6/21 GROUP G Egypt -1 +205 3U (vs New Zealand - game 2)
G8. WED 6/23 GROUP C Morroco-1½ +-118 3U (vs Haiti NOW A PLAY ODDS UPDATED, a GAME 3)
G9. TUE 6/24 GROUP L Croatia -1½ +136 3U (vs Panama - game 2)
G10. FRI 6/26 GROUP I Senegal -1½ -104 3U (vs Iraq NOW A PLAY ODDS UPDATED, a GAME 3)
G11. SUN 6/21 GROUP F Japan -1½ +205 3U (vs Tunisia - game 2)
If I incorrectly typed a group letter or date just note that the opponent is listed
Overall 11*-9= +5.69 (*Japan -1½ vs Tunisia bets G15/G11 count as single 5U play)
Per game/side 2U 2-2 +00.00U 3U 4-3 +02.40U 4U 1-3 -10.32U 5U 4*-1 +13.61U(*Japan -1½ vs Tunisia bets G15/G11 count as single 5U play) 6U 0-0 +00.00U
Graded:
G1. Colombia -1.5 vs Uzbek +104 5U +5.20 G2. FRI 6/12 GROUP B Switzerland -1½ -158 4U (vs Qatar - game 1!) -6.32U G3. SUN 6/14 GROUP D Turquía -1 +125 4U (vs Australia - game 1!) -4.00U G4. MON 6/15 GROUP H Uruguay -1½ +118 4U (vs Saudi - game 1!) -4.00U G5. WED 6/17 GROUP J Austria -1½ -115 4U (vs Jordan - game 1!) +4.00U G6. SAT 6/20 GROUP H Ecuador -1½ -210 3U (vs Curacao - game 2) -6.30U G7. SUN 6/21 GROUP G Egypt -1 +205 3U (vs New Zealand - game 2) +6.15U G11. SUN 6/21 GROUP F Japan -1½ +205 3-U (vs Tunisia - game 2) +6.15U G12. THU 6/18 GROUP B Qatar +1½ +108 2U (vs Canada - game 2) -2.00U G13. THU 6/18 GROUP A Mexico +105 5U (vs South Korea - game 2) +5.25U G14. THU 6/19 GROUP D USA TT OV 1½ 2U (vs Australia - game 2) +2.00U G15. SUN 6/21 GROUP F Japan -190 2U (vs Tunisia - game 2) +2.00U Japan -1½ +148 2-U (vs Tunisia - game 2) +2.96U G16. FRI 6/19 GROUP F Morrocco -150 3U (vs Scotland - game 2) +3.00U G17. FRI 6/19 GROUP D Turquía +105 3U (vs Paraguay - game 2) -3.00U G18. SAT 6/20 GROUP F Netherlands -135 5U (vs Sweden - game 2) +5.00U G19. FRI 6/19 GROUP C Brazil/Haiti BTS +145 2U (game 2) -2.00U G20. SAT 6/20 GROUP E Ecuador -1½ -219 5U (vs Curacao - game 2) -10.95U G21. SUN 6/20 GROUP F Tunisia TT UN ½ -110 3U (vs Japan - game 2) +3.00U G22. SUN 6/21 GROUP G Belgium -1½ -115 3U (vs Iran - game 2) -3.45U G23. MON 6/22 GROUP J Argentina ML -230 3U (match 2 vs Austria) +3.00U
If I incorrectly typed a group letter or date just note that the opponent is listed and game #
The pen is mightier than the pigs
Overall 11*-9= +5.69 (*Japan -1½ vs Tunisia bets G15/G11 count as single 5U play)
Per game/side 2U 2-2 +00.00U 3U 4-3 +02.40U 4U 1-3 -10.32U 5U 4*-1 +13.61U(*Japan -1½ vs Tunisia bets G15/G11 count as single 5U play) 6U 0-0 +00.00U
Graded:
G1. Colombia -1.5 vs Uzbek +104 5U +5.20 G2. FRI 6/12 GROUP B Switzerland -1½ -158 4U (vs Qatar - game 1!) -6.32U G3. SUN 6/14 GROUP D Turquía -1 +125 4U (vs Australia - game 1!) -4.00U G4. MON 6/15 GROUP H Uruguay -1½ +118 4U (vs Saudi - game 1!) -4.00U G5. WED 6/17 GROUP J Austria -1½ -115 4U (vs Jordan - game 1!) +4.00U G6. SAT 6/20 GROUP H Ecuador -1½ -210 3U (vs Curacao - game 2) -6.30U G7. SUN 6/21 GROUP G Egypt -1 +205 3U (vs New Zealand - game 2) +6.15U G11. SUN 6/21 GROUP F Japan -1½ +205 3-U (vs Tunisia - game 2) +6.15U G12. THU 6/18 GROUP B Qatar +1½ +108 2U (vs Canada - game 2) -2.00U G13. THU 6/18 GROUP A Mexico +105 5U (vs South Korea - game 2) +5.25U G14. THU 6/19 GROUP D USA TT OV 1½ 2U (vs Australia - game 2) +2.00U G15. SUN 6/21 GROUP F Japan -190 2U (vs Tunisia - game 2) +2.00U Japan -1½ +148 2-U (vs Tunisia - game 2) +2.96U G16. FRI 6/19 GROUP F Morrocco -150 3U (vs Scotland - game 2) +3.00U G17. FRI 6/19 GROUP D Turquía +105 3U (vs Paraguay - game 2) -3.00U G18. SAT 6/20 GROUP F Netherlands -135 5U (vs Sweden - game 2) +5.00U G19. FRI 6/19 GROUP C Brazil/Haiti BTS +145 2U (game 2) -2.00U G20. SAT 6/20 GROUP E Ecuador -1½ -219 5U (vs Curacao - game 2) -10.95U G21. SUN 6/20 GROUP F Tunisia TT UN ½ -110 3U (vs Japan - game 2) +3.00U G22. SUN 6/21 GROUP G Belgium -1½ -115 3U (vs Iran - game 2) -3.45U G23. MON 6/22 GROUP J Argentina ML -230 3U (match 2 vs Austria) +3.00U
If I incorrectly typed a group letter or date just note that the opponent is listed and game #
G8. WED 6/24 GROUP C Morocco -1½ -118 3U (vs Haiti NOW A PLAY ODDS UPDATED, a GAME 3) PENDING
Will Morocco try to make a run for winning the group by making up GD against Brazil (up by 3) since Morocco has Haiti and Brazil faces a very good (much to my surprise) Scotland? This smells like a Morocco win by 1 possibly 2 but Haiti is eliminated so they may just play for pride and to possibly just score a goal in their final match for the fans back home - I'm not as sure as I was earlier about betting on Morocco to win by 2 or more but what's done is done and the line now on the -1½ is -183 (was +136 before Group C played a single match if you look above, post #7 in this thread)
G9. TUE 6/23 GROUP L Croatia -1½ +136 3U (vs Panama - game 2) PENDING
G10. FRI 6/26 GROUP I Senegal -1½ -104 3U (vs Iraq NOW A PLAY ODDS UPDATED, a GAME 3) PENDING
FUTURES in post #1 also pending
The pen is mightier than the pigs
pending:
G8. WED 6/24 GROUP C Morocco -1½ -118 3U (vs Haiti NOW A PLAY ODDS UPDATED, a GAME 3) PENDING
Will Morocco try to make a run for winning the group by making up GD against Brazil (up by 3) since Morocco has Haiti and Brazil faces a very good (much to my surprise) Scotland? This smells like a Morocco win by 1 possibly 2 but Haiti is eliminated so they may just play for pride and to possibly just score a goal in their final match for the fans back home - I'm not as sure as I was earlier about betting on Morocco to win by 2 or more but what's done is done and the line now on the -1½ is -183 (was +136 before Group C played a single match if you look above, post #7 in this thread)
G9. TUE 6/23 GROUP L Croatia -1½ +136 3U (vs Panama - game 2) PENDING
G10. FRI 6/26 GROUP I Senegal -1½ -104 3U (vs Iraq NOW A PLAY ODDS UPDATED, a GAME 3) PENDING
G24. TUE 6/23 GROUP K Colombia -180 3U (game 2 vs DR Congo)
G25. WED 6/24 GROUP A Mexico -110 1U (match 3 vs Czech)
Mexico should rest players but even with that I think they come to win in front of the home crowd and get to R32 with momentum. Czech needs to win so they will come to play but Mexico will/should give them a game. I liked the "win it all" odds for Mexico being somewhat of a host nation (divided by 3). Because of that they should not lay down. Only 1U in case I'm wrong.
G26. THU 6/25 GROUP F Netherlands -1½ -239 6U (match 3 vs Tunisia)
I've got the Dutch winning it all, so I have to take this match, also Japan will not lose so the Dutch have to rul this match and they will dominate vs Tunisia
G27. THU 6/25 GROUP B Bosnia y Herz -1 -155 3U (match 3 vs Qatar) G28. THU 6/25 GROUP B Bosnia y Herz -1½ +118 3U (match 3 vs Qatar)
This is -1.25 for all the old schoolers playing offshore
Even if the Swiss win, Bosnia has to score over 9 goals to beat Canada with 4 points if the Swiss cheezers only win vs Canada by 1. Basically Bosnia is playing to beat Qatar into oblivion. Or by less than 9 if Switzerland clobber Canada and lowers the Canadian GD tremendously - but both matches will take place simultaneously. But now there's 3rd place and Bosnia as of right now is 1 GD away from breaking from 9th to 8th place and qualifying to R32 and THAT is HUGE. But the -1 to -2½ are so low. Can the oddsmakers really be that wrong? I thought Bosnia vs Qatar laying 2½ would be -200 NOT +295! which is what is currently is @ Kalshi
So...
G29. THU 6/25 GROUP B Bosnia y Herz -2½ +295 2U (match 3 vs Qatar)
G30. THU 6/25 GROUP F Japan -110 8U (match 3 vs Sweden)
Japan can't risk playing for the TIE. Sweden should be going all out playing for the win as they are 0 GD going into this match and need some help (meaning up their GD) to make any 3rd place - and they can't do that without a win now can they. This will be a battle and Japan knows the Netherlands will finish with 7 points, so no fooling around for the Samurai Blues
G31. THU 6/25 GROUP G Egypt/Iran DRAW +160 3U (match 3) So much love for Mo Salah! Would love to see Egypt make a run. Taking the draw because the odds say so
BOL
The pen is mightier than the pigs
ADDING ON:
G24. TUE 6/23 GROUP K Colombia -180 3U (game 2 vs DR Congo)
G25. WED 6/24 GROUP A Mexico -110 1U (match 3 vs Czech)
Mexico should rest players but even with that I think they come to win in front of the home crowd and get to R32 with momentum. Czech needs to win so they will come to play but Mexico will/should give them a game. I liked the "win it all" odds for Mexico being somewhat of a host nation (divided by 3). Because of that they should not lay down. Only 1U in case I'm wrong.
G26. THU 6/25 GROUP F Netherlands -1½ -239 6U (match 3 vs Tunisia)
I've got the Dutch winning it all, so I have to take this match, also Japan will not lose so the Dutch have to rul this match and they will dominate vs Tunisia
G27. THU 6/25 GROUP B Bosnia y Herz -1 -155 3U (match 3 vs Qatar) G28. THU 6/25 GROUP B Bosnia y Herz -1½ +118 3U (match 3 vs Qatar)
This is -1.25 for all the old schoolers playing offshore
Even if the Swiss win, Bosnia has to score over 9 goals to beat Canada with 4 points if the Swiss cheezers only win vs Canada by 1. Basically Bosnia is playing to beat Qatar into oblivion. Or by less than 9 if Switzerland clobber Canada and lowers the Canadian GD tremendously - but both matches will take place simultaneously. But now there's 3rd place and Bosnia as of right now is 1 GD away from breaking from 9th to 8th place and qualifying to R32 and THAT is HUGE. But the -1 to -2½ are so low. Can the oddsmakers really be that wrong? I thought Bosnia vs Qatar laying 2½ would be -200 NOT +295! which is what is currently is @ Kalshi
So...
G29. THU 6/25 GROUP B Bosnia y Herz -2½ +295 2U (match 3 vs Qatar)
G30. THU 6/25 GROUP F Japan -110 8U (match 3 vs Sweden)
Japan can't risk playing for the TIE. Sweden should be going all out playing for the win as they are 0 GD going into this match and need some help (meaning up their GD) to make any 3rd place - and they can't do that without a win now can they. This will be a battle and Japan knows the Netherlands will finish with 7 points, so no fooling around for the Samurai Blues
G31. THU 6/25 GROUP G Egypt/Iran DRAW +160 3U (match 3) So much love for Mo Salah! Would love to see Egypt make a run. Taking the draw because the odds say so
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