WC R32 Thread

WC Group Thread

Group stage is just about done. I have one winning group future one loser and one pending.

As in the group stage I like to get my action in way before lines move away from me. 

But I actually lean all 4 currently posted dogs to advance (Japan, Dutch, Bosnia and South Africa), especially loving the Netherlands and Japan and leaning the other two, mostly because the price is really nice on Bosnia and South Africa.

The lines should go up on these dogs with support coming in for the two super huge co hosts and also on Morocco and Brazil, both public darlings.

The tournament has been interesting to say the least. Mostly because of the new team expansion format. Things are not as they used to be

Have you seen Bosnia or South Africa play? I do not think they belong to the wc let alone in R32 or R16.

They both were very lucky with the draw.

Japan is great, agree. 

Morocco and Netherlands i would say chances are around 50-50. GL whatever you choose.

Bosnia beat Italy men 

@Seahawks14

 Italy has not been good for the past 12 years

WC Thread - Group stage & Futures

Overall Group Stage Final: (WC Thread)
25-20 = +24.35U

PENDING FUTURES (from WC Thread)

F3. Ecuador to reach the R16 + 110  1.5U -PENDING

F4. Colombia to Reach R16 -120  1.5U -PENDING

F5. Netherlands to reach the Quarters +145  1.5U -PENDING

F5. Mexico to reach the Quarters +280  1.5U -PENDING

F6. Golden Boot Lucho Diaz +5000  .5U -PENDING

F8. Mexico Wins World Cup +5500 .5U -PENDING

F9. Netherlands Win World Cup  +1700 .5U -PENDING

Mama Mia, Zidane curse is real!! 

M73) Canada/South Africa

CANADA -1 (which includes Extra Time/OT 30 mins if tied after 90), NOT TO ADVANCE

+119 ½U

I expect this to push, I don't like this match

BOL 

25-20-3 = +24.35U

Yesterday was a push as expected

Monday:

M74. Brazil/Japan

B1.Japan +½ +115  1½U

REGULATION 90 MINS +INJURY/stoppage. (This does not include OT 30 mins if tied after 90), This is NOT TO ADVANCE

This is also known as Double Chance: Japan/Tie

___________

B2. Draw +265  1½U (Regulation Time!)

No write up, Japan has injuries, Mitoma has been out the whole tourney, last match I lost a lot on Japan  betting more than double my average 3U bet.

Why the 3U average bet size today? Value. My feeble numbers calculate a positive EV on the draw. And a small chance on the win in regulation.

BOL 

@Mucak30 

@Seahawks14 

@bruv 

@CanadaCup 

agreed, I think this Brazil team is being overrated especially without some true attacking midfielders, not sure if they can go deep or even to beat Japan 

Monday:

M76. Netherlands/Morocco

This is a future taking it today right now on FD, the odds are $8 better than the "To Advance" odds pool and that is my bet, To Advance:

B1. Netherlands to reach R16 -154 5U

B2. Netherlands +125 1.5U 

REGULATION 90 MINS +INJURY/stoppage. (This does not include OT 30 mins if tied after 90), This B2 is NOT a "TO ADVANCE" bet

Morocco's team is awesome, I've bet on them heavily so far but so have I on the Dutch. 

Morocco will be tough, this could go to penalties. But right now Morocco is just not in the same league.

Later today I will add to my existing Dutch futures, taking them to make Quarters and Semis

BOL 

Great slate of games today, gonna be a couple of fun games. 

M76. Netherlands/Morocco

adding on:

B3. Netherlands TT OV 1½ +139 3U(Kalshi)

Regulation + Stoppage/injury

BOL 

Hope you cash your wagers B..
$$$$

Appreciate post yesterday…

@barneybeans

@barneybeans

@barneybeans

 Bol today BB

Just imagine all the way healthy and with Mitoma for today's match

Brazil should consider themselves lucky to not have gone to penalites.

@barneybeans

 Keep up the great capping 

This thread needs to be bumped...BARNEY IS KICKING A*SS this WC 

M74. Brazil/Japan
B1.Japan +½ +115 1½U -1.50U lost in the last 3 minutes of 90+
B2. Draw +265 1½U -1.50U lost in the last 3 minutes of 90+

M76. Netherlands/Morocco
B1. Netherlands to reach R16 -154 5U -7.70U lost in the last 2 minutes of 90+
B2. Netherlands +125 1.5U -1.50U -1.5U lost in the last 2 minutes of 90+
0-4 = -12.20U

Went from a + 12.59U Winner to a -12.2 loser, a 24.49 swing OUCH! All in stoppage time

Current Record;
25-24-3 = +12.15U

Today:

M78. Cote D'ivoire/Norway
B1. Cote D'ivoire +½ -140 3U  - Regulation + stoppage only

BOL 

@JuiceCanseco

@JuiceCanseco

@LuckyGuy

@vankiep_0007

@DiamondJack

Like the Netherlands and Morocco yesterday, today's México vs Ecuador is tough for me as I love, have adopted each and have made $ on both so far.

I bet Ecuador vs Germany from here: WC Group Thread,  post #31 and I was writing off Ecuador at that time, but thinking that they had a great shot vs Germany so I laid the bet with my wallet but wrote from my heart: "I think Ecuador's showing is a lot lower than what they are capable of. It's just one of those things, this is not their cup and not their time to get out of the group, shit happens every cup, all the time a decent team just under performs in the group..."

And from my wallet: "Ecuador qualified 2nd in CONMEBOL just behind Argentina, finishing ahead of Colombia, Brazil, and Uruguay"

Maybe Chicharito will come out tonight when Ochoa comes into goal - too bad it's not at the Azteca

There is good value in Ecuador tonight, despite Enner Valencia's lackluster performance so far

Ecuador is used to playing at altitude

It was great that Germany got bounced yesterday and now Ecuador's group match 3 win over the Mannschaft (how did they get away with that name?) appears less impressive as Germany was not full strength and had already qualified, "Ecuador got lucky vs a toned down Germany who got sent home by lowly Paraguay in R32" the square bettors might say.

This Germany loss gives better odds tonight for Ecuador = value

I sooooo want to see México roll to the quarters with a lot of home field magic but as last night, I will root for the team I am betting against. 

Today:

M79. México/Ecuador
B1. Ecuador  DoubleChance WIN or DRAW (or +½) Including Extra Time -110 3U  - Regulation + 30 mins of Extra time (available on Fanduel)

This match has Penalty shoot out written all over it which means draw in Regulation and/or Extra

In order to hedge against a possible winner I will lay a little insurance and have Ecuador to win in Regulation and/or Extra time as well, which is built into the Double Chance/+½ 

BOL 

@DiamondJack

Thanks DJ, you're too kind and kinda exaggerating - I'm just happy to have this WorldCup

Also you are probably greatly torn between Canada vs Morocco next week. Just like me with Morocco and the Netherlands last night

M84. Spain/Austria
Spain Win to Nil +105 3U
(Regulation 90+ stoppage)

M83. Portugal/Croatia
Croatia +½ (Double chance) +115 5U
(Regulation 90+ stoppage)

M88. Australia/Egypt
Egypt to Advance -142 3U

M85. Switzerland/Algeria
Under 2½ -150 3U
(Regulation 90+ stoppage)

M87. Colombia/Ghana
Colombia -1 -118 3U
(Regulation 90+ stoppage)

M92. México/England
México to advance +112 5U

BOL