SOCCER TODAY PLAYS (10/22)

YTD (SOCCER):  51-23-3 (BIG PLAY!!!: 18-6)

Had an awesome 9-0 day yesterday also hitting a MASSIVE parlay on my end that I thought was a dream.  Turned out it wasn't.  There is a lot to like today on the board but I need to temper my expectation as not every day will be as sublime and I don't want to bleed money back.  But there are a couple of early games and one that I have my eyes set on which I thought I would post if anyone would like to look into it.

OVER 3.5 (BODO/GALATASARAY)...BIG PLAY!!!:  I'm tempted to just make this a FH play as I think they might get 4 goals in the opening frame but I'll take my chances with the full game.  Simply put, neither of these teams boast defenses and this is one of those under the radar games that could really fly over the number.  Bodo can score, but then they give up goals, which has been their kryptonite.  Galatasaray have one of the best forwards in Victor Osihmen and a host of other players that have played at very high levels for other clubs.  They are menacing at home but haven't been in the finest of forms, mostly due to a leaky defense.  Play this one confidently and let's roll into the later games...

LIVERPOOL -1 (-115)...BIG PLAY!!!:  The reason I didn't back the FG ML with Liverpool is because they have been in brutally bad form.  They have lost 4 in a row and havent' lost 5 in a row in almost 70 years!  They are struggling, in my opinion, because they have too many top choice selections to have to keep happy so they are rotating too many people in and out, which has built no cohesion.  They play a Frankfurt side that can, and will, score, but also one that has dropped their past two games at home.  Since most are expecting a high scoring affair, I am ok dropping the one goal in a game I liken to yesterday's PSG game, where they too came in struggling a bit.  But this is the Champions League after all and Liverpool I think will find that championship pedigree and take this game outright.

OVER 3 (MARSEILLE/SPORTING LISBON):  Another game that I see playing out much like yesterday's Napoli/PSV game in that both teams are coming from leagues they don't usually square off against.  Lisbon hasn't been great of late and Marseille haven't been great on the road in this tournament historically, so I think both of these teams will find the net.  If that is to happen, I also feel that the net will rattle more than 3 times and with an almost fully healthy squad, Sporting SHOULD get a victory here and salvage some of their CL standing.

ATALANTA (-1.5)...BIG PLAY!!!:  This is a true mismatch.  Slavia Prague is really bad on the road and while Atalanta isn't Real Madrid, this is why you are getting these types of low odds.  I'm not sure how many Atalanta will get but there is a good chance that Prague gets none.  I just see no way that Atlanata, given their really good showing in previous years, do not get this done in Bergamo.  Coach is different from those teams, but I don't necessarily think that's a bad thing.  Plus Scamacca is back in action and he's very much a talisman I can see putting one in the net.

I have to break up these posts b/c it's apparently too long.  Be right back to finish up...

To continue, I played Bayern Munich FH last night at a really challenging -175 and that number is not available anymore.  I know on paper this is a mismatch but in two games played between these two, the Bavarians have only found one goal in a 1-0 win (the other game was drawn).  Brugge can score and I expect they will as Munich does give up goals.  But what really propelled me on this play was that Brugge is missing top choice GK Mignolet and, against Bayern, you cannot be down top players, especially the guy guarding the net.

I have a couple others but I need to check the lineups.  I will be back on in a bit.  As always, tail or fade, good luck to all....

@LAGameofInches

I had osihmen to score first +300 

@Brooklyncapper

OMG that's so awesome!  You're killing it I'm guessing you didn't bet the bank on that but still....he's so so good.  Also love your MLB K's props, finally started tailing some of those.  But I guess first let's get some added bankroll with these games.  Though I just watched a Bodo player miss a layup for a 3rd goal in the FH.  Still think lots more goals in this game

BILBAO is wining this game!  They gave a gift goal away but they are menacing and I dont' see how that stops in the second half.  Might be playing the 2H Bilbao just going to depend on pricing.  Still waiting on lineups for next round of games.  LOVING Chelsea but need to see who they have in and who they don't I know Palmer is not playing and that's a massive loss.  But Ajax is just not the same team as last year having sold off too many key players imo.

Prob got too cocky with saying 3-4 goals would be scored FH in the Galatasary game but there have been a crazy amount of chances on both sides and the post has rattled a few times.  Definitely see that game getting more second half scoring. 

Adding...

ATHLETIC BILBAO 2H -1 (-125):  Bilbao really needs this game and they are zoned in.  They have a great coach who has usually been better in the 2nd half and I think today is no different.  The total is also juiced to the over (Over 1.5 -155) which means they expect two goals more than likely.  I do NOT see both coming from Qarabag so that would mean either the game ends up tied, which it might, or that Bilbao has a good chance to net two more, which is what I am thinking.  

Will be back shortly with any other adds, lineups should be released in next 15 minutes or so...

Ok, have a feeling I'm only adding to my own bankroll but still going to post the added play here.  I will say Liverpool looking like they are setting up in case the FH doesn't go their way, leaving Salah, MadAllister and Chiesa (who has been awesome of late) on the bench.  Gakpo has been sublime both for club and country so I do see goals in that game but might be worth revisiting the total for the 2H.  

CHELSEA -1.5 (-115):  I have liked this game all week and had a couple more guys been playing this would be a big play.  But as it stands, Ajax is not very good of late and Chelsea has a tendency to step up in games of bigger magnitude, just as this one is.  I think they will be strong at the back so potentially they keep a clean sheet but playing at home against a team they are superior to should be a lock stock win.  The question is by how much and I can see this game ending 2-0 to Chelsea.

I do like the OVER 3 in the Juventus/RM game b/c of defensive abscences for the home squad.  Juventus will start a strong lineup and I can see Vlahovic having some success I the air against a defense missing some bigger guys like Rudiger.  I love the way Mbappe is playing but strangely he will be lining up with Jude Bellingham up front.  So I'm not sure how much chemistry they will have.  Some of these games end up being really tight due to the matchup of teams, and I have a sneaking suspicion this could be one of them.

I realize people hate when I toot my own horn but not many accolades or hand shakes here so I want to keep myself confident as the wins keep coming.  

That is 12 wins/units in a row...all posted and documented.  Just hope some of you are also cashing in.  Sublime morning so far, I'm guessing a couple games might not have the same results or else we're going to be close to 20!  Anyways, just a great morning of soccer and analysis.  Hope you are all profiting as well...

OVER 3.5 (BODO/GALATASARAY)...BIG PLAY!!! WW 

ATHLETIC BILBAO 2H -1 (-125) W 

Why not...

UPDATED YTD (SOCCER):  54-23-3 (BIG PLAY!!!: 19-6)

Will be back in a bit, that's all the plays for the later slate but might add a 2H depending on game flow.  Good luck to all...

Nobody in here lol but I just added a cute prop bet thanks to my buddy @Brooklyncapper

MICHAEL OLISE ANYTIME SCORER (+130)

That will truly be all until potentially half time.

CHELSEA!!!  LFG!!!  Ajax going to get mauled 

Nice work.  Hope you stay on a roll.

I have just a few plays:  Bayern 1H -1.5 goals, Liverpool ML, Real Madrid o3.  Real Madrid needs a goal before HT.

You gonna need Liberpool to net 3 

Well I guess I will only need one more then 

@LAGameofInches

 Looks like you got the 3rd POOL goal

And there is the 3rd Liverpool goal.

Just got two quick ones.  What I need is Atalanta to score instead of narrowly missing the chances :) 

So, Atalanta is a MUCH better 2nd half team.  Not sure why, but have been for some time despite the coaching changes.  They are -160 to just WIN the 2nd half.  I don't want to double down on it but just as I said yesterday with Dortmund, they are winning this game.

I am going to back some goals in the 2nd half of the Juve/RM game.  Already Mbappe had two taken back for offsides but the second half will be more active.  No weather to affect things...

OVER 1.5 2H (JUVE/RM)

I'll be back later to assess.  That's enough for me to have to keep tabs on, just hoping for one more Liverpool goal and Marseille will give up at least a goal in the 2nd half as hopefully the red card will lead to more than one goal scored between those squads.

Hope everyone is having a solid day...

Taking a few 2nd half bets:

Atlanta ML - 133

Monaco/Tottenham o1.5 -125

Real Madrid o1.5 -154 & o2.5 +200

Real Madrid finally gets a goal

I’m at a loss for words how Atalanta hasn’t scored 1+

Real Madrid is the worst team to bet on. Mbappe is the king of should’ve scored but somehow didn’t 

damn Atalanta cost me 2 big parlays 

Yeah, some of these teams are really puzzling.  Literally how does Atlanta miss those sitters right in front of goal.  That second half in RM was just brutal to watch, Juventus brought nothing after their first opportunity. So it goes...

Tallying up the totals now, the Bayern FH play is NOT part of the calculations as I had played it last night and the Olise to score was a small fun prop so also not in the totals.  But, the others are and unfortunately lost a few plays I thought were almost fully free from turmoil, but alas I was wrong.  Might not back Atalanta again until I see more consistency.  

UPDATED YTD (SOCCER):  57-26-1 (BIG PLAY!!!: 21-7)

Still can't believe RM and Juve couldn't get two second half goals but some great goalkeeping.  Flat for the rest of the afternoon because of it.  Still a solid wining day but some road bumps today.  Will be back either tomorrow or on the weekend, I'm usually reaching with the Europa Cup games depending on the matchup so I have to be much more selective there.  Hoping everyone had a profitable day