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OVER / UNDER picks

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Posted: #76
Any chance you could re-post that poisson calculator on this. Or maybe the link to that thread you referred to.

Enjoyed mopping up on the primera overs with you. I also had both premiership games under 2.5. Great day all around. Weeks off to a good start. I hope you are prosperous CRD, you deserve it!
 
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Posted: #77
I am also a soccer over/under bettor. I would say they are my main bets since a few years. I've discovered soccer betting since only a few years ago and I am totally hooked now... lol I am also curious to see that thread on that poisson calculator.
 
I' ve ended up today with a 7 wins out of 9 over bets. Hopefully it will be as good or better in the days to come.
 
On a personal note, my boss is dating one of your fellow romanians who came here with her ex a few years ago. She is such a nice girl. She teaches foreign language. This is where he meet her, being one of her students.
 
Well I am really pleased to have found your thread and am looking forward for your next posts.
 
GL buddy!
 
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Posted: #78
I'm glad you find this idea interesting.
If you'd like to see what I use to compute the real odds I uploaded a Excel spreadsheet on my skydrive at https://cid-c9f94e792da7f590.skydrive.live.com/self.aspx/Sport%20Betting/Soccer.xls?sa=21131387
It's available for download. I fyou want to use it all you have to do is fill the blank columns (games and avg).
In the games column I write the names of teams and in the column avg I write the average of goals scored that I expect, as in the example above (totals goals scored and conceded by both teams / total number of games). Then press "Enter" and you'll see in the columns highlighted in yellow the probabilities (under 2.5 %) and the fair odds (under 2.5 odds).
Enjoy it!
 
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Posted: #79
 (impressive) and  for today calinreddog.

FYI, some bookies had the >2.5 on Belenenses yesterday at 2.30...shop around as this means  in our pockets at the end of the season.
 
 
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Posted: #80
 
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Posted: #81
i get 2,40 in the pacos v belenses game
 
also are you really backing an under for lowish 1.40 ?
 
 
 
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Posted: #82
Quote Originally Posted by ashdogs:

i get 2,40 in the pacos v belenses game
 
also are you really backing an under for lowish 1.40 ?
 
 

Yes I am backing the under but not at 1.40

I am backing the under at 1.60 offered by my bookie when the fair odds should be 1.40 for the under. That means 20% value for this bet, so why not? In the odds for over I can't find value so I'll take the under where the value is.

The odds I wrote above are the real or fair odds. If I can get a better price at the bookie I'll take them.

 
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Posted: #83
ahh i see, so then its great for me to jump on at 2.44 now
 
 
 
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Posted: #84
BOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!calinreddog
 
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Posted: #85
Quote Originally Posted by IWM8888:

BOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!calinreddog

Thanks, same to you,

 
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Posted: #86
leeds-milwall over 2.5 2-0
nurnberg-kaiserslautern over 2.5 3-0
citadella-avellino under 2.5 4-0 
ferreira-belenenses over 2.5 1-1
 
1-3
 
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Posted: #87
I am so so stupid...
I hate the UNDERS...
Tomorrow I'll open another thread "OVERS" and that's it, I'll look for overs.
 
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Posted: #88
Red card killed this game, citadella-avellino, unlucky reddog.
 
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Posted: #89
Agree with Hansi, calinreddog...it was just a bad day, the picks were good IMO.
 
Better luck tomorrow.
 
 
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Posted: #90
Hansi, Flyers thank you for kind words, .
I really appreciate it!
 
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Posted: #91
And I decided I should cut the losses right away with a parlay:
 
Calgary Flames moneyline
New York Rangers +1.5
Charlotte Bobcats moneyline
New Orleans-Memphis over 186
Boise State moneyline
Kansas Missouri under 155.5
 
Odds = 30.52
 
 
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Posted: #92
Good Luck, Wade! Win this one biiiiiiiig!
 
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Posted: #93
Let's make another OVER day:
 

brighton-peterborough over 2.5

carlisle-walsall over 2.5

crewe-bristol rovers over 2.5

exeter-macclesfield over 2.5

 

I decided to keep it simple. No poisson and real odds calculations because that means too much work and when there are no rewards for this work I feel like I'd . Why trying to complicate a very simple thing?

And if somebody cares about european hockey totals, I found some good over plays for today, starting 16:00 GMT:

 

karpat-ilves tampere over 5.5 Finland

trencin-skalica over 5.5 Slovakia

storhamar-sparta sarpsborg over 5.5 Norway

stjernen-lillehammer over 5.5 Norway

 

Good luck to everybody!

 

 
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Posted: #94
Best of Luck!
 
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Posted: #95

Calin, I may tail you on a couple of the Euro hockey picks. What's the best site to follow the scores?

Thanks, and keep up the great work!

 
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Posted: #96
Quote Originally Posted by Livan33:

Calin, I may tail you on a couple of the Euro hockey picks. What's the best site to follow the scores?

Thanks, and keep up the great work!

I watch the scores at https://www.flashscore.com/hockey/

There you can see all the scores in one screen.

Good luck!

 
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Posted: #97
GL friend, hope you are prosperous today!
 
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Posted: #98
Quote Originally Posted by savagethug54:

GL friend, hope you are prosperous today!

Thank you, that's what I hope too...

 
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Posted: #99
Thanks again Calin, I'm on the Finland and Slovakia games. Both are 1-1 right now. Hope they keep up the scoring!
 
 
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Posted: #100
Quote Originally Posted by Livan33:

Thanks again Calin, I'm on the Finland and Slovakia games. Both are 1-1 right now. Hope they keep up the scoring!

Look again:

Karpat 2-4 1st period

Trencin 2-3 1st period, 

easy overs and very good odds at my bookie.

I don't know what's the story between Karpat and Ilves, but the last 4 games played at Karpat they scored at least 8 goals. The average expected was 5.7 and at -115 odds that was a very good bet.

 

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