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OVER / UNDER picks

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Posted: #51

07.02.09

Today is over day:

wba-newcastle over 2.5

port vale-alderschot over 2.5

eintracht frankfurt-koln over 2.5

karlsruhe-hamburger sv over 2.5

grosseto-sassuolo over 2.5

albacete-xerez over 2.5

toulouse-le mans over 2.5

 

 
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Posted: #52
07.02.09 picks update (changed my mind about 3 games and added some more)
 

wba-newcastle over 2.5

coventry-wolverhampton over 2.5

swindon-southend over 2.5

hartlepool-wallsal over 2.5

port vale-alderschot over 2.5

macclesfield-notts county over 2.5

grosseto-sassuolo over 2.5

eintracht frankfurt-koln over 2.5

levante-murcia over 2.5

tubize-mechelen over 2.5
 
 
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Posted: #53
Good luck! Of course no perfect weather conditions for overs (especially in England). But I tried as well.



 
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Posted: #54
Add The big named leagues to your Wagerline Contests
Europe which includes the Premiership from England as well as others plus Major League Soccer
 
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Posted: #55
Add your international games
 
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Posted: #56
BOL!!!!!!!!!!!!calinreddog
 
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Posted: #57
IWM, Lutz thank you for your BOL wishes, I really hope you had a good day.
It was such a great day for overs and at very good prices.
 

wba-newcastle over 2.5 2-3

coventry-wolverhampton over 2.5 2-1

swindon-southend over 2.5 cancelled

hartlepool-wallsal over 2.5 2-2

port vale-alderschot over 2.5 cancelled

macclesfield-notts county over 2.5 cancelled

grosseto-sassuolo over 2.5 1-2

eintracht frankfurt-koln over 2.5 2-2

levante-murcia over 2.5 2-1

tubize-mechelen over 2.5 1-3 (fisrt half)
 
7-0.
 
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Posted: #58
 
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Posted: #59
Congrats!!!

7 times >


 
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Posted: #60
Thank you, Lutz, Ashdogs
 
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Posted: #61
08.02.09
 
I'll start the day with 2 turkish overs:
 
Antalyaspor-Denizlispor over 2.5
Genclerbirligi-Bursaspor over 2.5
 
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Posted: #62
... and will continue with:
 
Duisburg-SV Wehen over 2.5
Ingolstadt-RW Oberhausen over 2.5
Fiorentina-Lazoi over 2.5
 
 
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Posted: #63
and the winning continues, great start
 
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Posted: #64
Good luck!
 
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Posted: #65

...and to close the over day:

cottbus-hannover over 2.5

tenerife-eibar over 2.5

recreativo huelva-atletico madrid over 2.5

valladolid-atletico bilbao over 2.5

malaga-almeria over 2.5

olympique marseille-girondins bordeaux over 2.5

trasyvoulos-OFI Crete over 2.5 (Greece Superleague)

 
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Posted: #66
 
 
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Posted: #67
With you on most of the Primera overs. GL CRD!
 
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Posted: #68
Quote Originally Posted by savagethug54:

With you on most of the Primera overs. GL CRD!

, good luck to you too!

 
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Posted: #69
I love it when they cover the over in the 1H. Atletico Madrid/Recreativo did.
 
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Posted: #70
Almeria was up 2-0 at half and within the first minutes of the 2H Malaga scored a beauty! SHIP IT!
 
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Posted: #71
Quote Originally Posted by savagethug54:

Almeria was up 2-0 at half and within the first minutes of the 2H Malaga scored a beauty! SHIP IT!

We're  on Primera Division

 
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Posted: #72
im so fkin stupid, keep on taking manu over, last one in 5 fold huge parlay with the primera games and the greek game
 
stil profit tho but so annoying
 
 
 
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Posted: #73
So what have we done?
 
Antalyaspor-Denizlispor over 2.5 2-1
Genclerbirligi-Bursaspor over 2.5 1-2
Duisburg-SV Wehen over 2.5 2-1
Ingolstadt-RW Oberhausen over 2.5 0-0
Fiorentina-Lazio over 2.5 1-0

cottbus-hannover over 2.5 3-1

tenerife-eibar over 2.5 2-0

recreativo huelva-atletico madrid over 2.5 0-3

valladolid-atletico bilbao over 2.5 2-1

malaga-almeria over 2.5 3-2

olympique marseille-girondins bordeaux over 2.5 1-0

trasyvoulos-OFI Crete over 2.5 1-2

 

8-4

 
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Posted: #74
I will try for the next few days a new approach.
The last 2 days I focused on overs, trying to pick games where the average of goals / game should be at least 2.75 and the odds offered by the bookie were higher than -120. That went 15-4 and I made a nice profit, trying to find value bets only at odds higher than -120.
But why limit myself to odds higher than -120 and overs when I could find plenty of value at odds lower than -120?
I will post every day the real odds for over/under that offers a little value (at least at my bookie) and I'll bet money on them as well. Now, how could I know what the real odds are? Using simple statistics.
Goals in soccer and hockey are distributed over a period of time (90 or 60 minutes) accordingly to the laws of Poisson distribution. I had a thread on this strategy in the General Gaming / Strategies section of the forum so I won't repeat it here.
I'll use an example from tomorrow's games:
Leeds 14 games at home 28 goals scored, 17 goals conceded
Milwall 12 games away, 18 goals scored, 16 goals conceded.
We should expect in this situation an average of (28+17+18+16) / (14+12) = 79 / 26 = 3.03 goals scored in 90 minutes (per game).
If we use a Poisson calculator we find that chances of being scored 2 goals at most for this 3.03 average are 42%. That means the chances of being scored at least 3 goals or more are 58% so the real odds should be 2.40 for under 2.5 and 1.71 for over 2.5.
My bookie offers me over 2.5 at 1.95 odds so it's a great bet for me.
I'll post tomorrow's games were I found value and the real odds (I prefer using the decimal format) computed as above:
 
leeds-milwall over 2.5 = 1.71
nurnberg-kaiserslautern over 2.5 = 1.83
citadella-avellino under 2.5 = 1.40
ferreira-belenenses over 2.5 = 2.08
 
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #75
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