Long time covers reader first time poster looking for some guidance from the soccer experts. I have a crazy 11 team $40 parlay that pays a little over $21 K that just needs Man U to win. Trying to decide the best way to hedge the bet. My bankroll is just a little over 2K.
My book has the draw at +255 and Tott to win at +418. I also have Tott +.5/.1 at +110. (Any opinions as to how these lines will move would also be appreciated)
My current thinking is to throw 2K on the draw at +255 but that is not really hedging as I could lose both wagers if Man U loses.
The safest play would be Tott +.5/1 which would guarantee me a 2K profit.
Would love to hear anyone's thoughts about the match/suggestions as to how I just lay the 2K. I know Man U is a little banged up and suspect defensively. Thanks in advance for your guidance.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Long time covers reader first time poster looking for some guidance from the soccer experts. I have a crazy 11 team $40 parlay that pays a little over $21 K that just needs Man U to win. Trying to decide the best way to hedge the bet. My bankroll is just a little over 2K.
My book has the draw at +255 and Tott to win at +418. I also have Tott +.5/.1 at +110. (Any opinions as to how these lines will move would also be appreciated)
My current thinking is to throw 2K on the draw at +255 but that is not really hedging as I could lose both wagers if Man U loses.
The safest play would be Tott +.5/1 which would guarantee me a 2K profit.
Would love to hear anyone's thoughts about the match/suggestions as to how I just lay the 2K. I know Man U is a little banged up and suspect defensively. Thanks in advance for your guidance.
if Totts not to lose is the way you want to go, then take them +.5 +132 and dont mess with the +.75 price.... you may want to wait closer to game time as the public may be inclined to bet ManU up...
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if Totts not to lose is the way you want to go, then take them +.5 +132 and dont mess with the +.75 price.... you may want to wait closer to game time as the public may be inclined to bet ManU up...
Thanks for the input Bake. The degen in me wants to lay 2K on the tie to win 5K but then it's not really a hedge What are your thoughts about the match tomorrow and the chance that Tott could win outright?
My book only offers .5/1....Oddsmaker is not the best book for wagering on soccer unfortunately.
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Thanks for the input Bake. The degen in me wants to lay 2K on the tie to win 5K but then it's not really a hedge What are your thoughts about the match tomorrow and the chance that Tott could win outright?
My book only offers .5/1....Oddsmaker is not the best book for wagering on soccer unfortunately.
Take the 2K on Tottenham +0.5/1 and you are guranteed money. Hope united wins and cash 21K
To answer your question No I don't think Tottenham will win, but with the stakes I would hedge to win 21K. I think United will win, if I'm right you will make 19k profit.. if they win by 1 goal you make 20K profit. Can't complain...
Good luck brother I don't like Man Utd (Chelsea fan) but I hope they win for you
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Take the 2K on Tottenham +0.5/1 and you are guranteed money. Hope united wins and cash 21K
To answer your question No I don't think Tottenham will win, but with the stakes I would hedge to win 21K. I think United will win, if I'm right you will make 19k profit.. if they win by 1 goal you make 20K profit. Can't complain...
Good luck brother I don't like Man Utd (Chelsea fan) but I hope they win for you
let it ride... or hedge to get exactly the same amount whether Man U wins or not...
Tottenam NTL for 10-11k at +130...
If your book cant get it in then it always worth a trip to Vegas... Hilton guarenteed to take your bet... Expedia.com and youll find something for less than $500, game doesnt start for another 13 hours...
GL...
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let it ride... or hedge to get exactly the same amount whether Man U wins or not...
Tottenam NTL for 10-11k at +130...
If your book cant get it in then it always worth a trip to Vegas... Hilton guarenteed to take your bet... Expedia.com and youll find something for less than $500, game doesnt start for another 13 hours...
betting on just the tie is crazy. it tot wins then you lose it all. i would also bet 2k on the 0.5/1 and sit back and relax and enjoy the game. no sweat. obviously manu win is best result but even if they lose or tie, you still make a great profit on a $40 ticket. gl anyhow
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betting on just the tie is crazy. it tot wins then you lose it all. i would also bet 2k on the 0.5/1 and sit back and relax and enjoy the game. no sweat. obviously manu win is best result but even if they lose or tie, you still make a great profit on a $40 ticket. gl anyhow
Next time you should only bet a 10 team parlay. in other words, you should have just left the ManU game off, and bet a 10 teamer - then you could decide exactly how much you would like to put on ManU if you were not comfortable having approximately 13K on ManU today (which is essentially what you have now).
I never understand these hedge threads, because they are all a function of making a fundamental error at BET TIME. You already made the mistake.
But that being said, you cannot hedge a 13K (estimated) bet with 2k. It is just impossible.
GL wiht whatever you choose.
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I will not belabor this point..... But....
Next time you should only bet a 10 team parlay. in other words, you should have just left the ManU game off, and bet a 10 teamer - then you could decide exactly how much you would like to put on ManU if you were not comfortable having approximately 13K on ManU today (which is essentially what you have now).
I never understand these hedge threads, because they are all a function of making a fundamental error at BET TIME. You already made the mistake.
But that being said, you cannot hedge a 13K (estimated) bet with 2k. It is just impossible.
Tott +.5/.1 at +110 is the bet, this will cover Tott win as well as the draw, remember that will give you a 2k profitt, also if you ManU wins by 1 you will cover half of your bet as well.
BOL and hope you cash big today brother!!!
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Tott +.5/.1 at +110 is the bet, this will cover Tott win as well as the draw, remember that will give you a 2k profitt, also if you ManU wins by 1 you will cover half of your bet as well.
Next time you should only bet a 10 team parlay. in other words, you should have just left the ManU game off, and bet a 10 teamer - then you could decide exactly how much you would like to put on ManU if you were not comfortable having approximately 13K on ManU today (which is essentially what you have now).
I never understand these hedge threads, because they are all a function of making a fundamental error at BET TIME. You already made the mistake.
But that being said, you cannot hedge a 13K (estimated) bet with 2k. It is just impossible.
GL wiht whatever you choose.
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Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
I will not belabor this point..... But....
Next time you should only bet a 10 team parlay. in other words, you should have just left the ManU game off, and bet a 10 teamer - then you could decide exactly how much you would like to put on ManU if you were not comfortable having approximately 13K on ManU today (which is essentially what you have now).
I never understand these hedge threads, because they are all a function of making a fundamental error at BET TIME. You already made the mistake.
But that being said, you cannot hedge a 13K (estimated) bet with 2k. It is just impossible.
If before making the parlay you thought Man U would win, and the line has moved in their favor, why the hell would you hedge out of a bet? If anything, the bet has more value now than before...
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If before making the parlay you thought Man U would win, and the line has moved in their favor, why the hell would you hedge out of a bet? If anything, the bet has more value now than before...
If before making the parlay you thought Man U would win, and the line has moved in their favor, why the hell would you hedge out of a bet? If anything, the bet has more value now than before...
At current odds (-170), he has a $12,350 wager on ManU.
When are people going to realize that these enormous wagers on last games of parlays are part of the parlay process? Why not consider this when you bet it? You should have asked yourself "will I be comfortable having 12k on ManU on Monday"?
I will never understand it. Especially because of what Arko points out - his ticket is probably more at about -150 or so, meaning he is giving away so much more to hedge out of a bet that he could have hedged out of before he even made the bet.
These hedge threads are usually self fulfilling prophecies. If they are lucky enough to get to the last game, they are willing to GIVE AWAY MONEY to get out of the last game - when they could just get out of the last game by leaving it off in the first place.
I am not condemning parlays, or saying they are useless, I am just saying that if you are wiling to pay EXTRA to cancel a bet - and you have the choice to not make that bet for free - what kind of a person puts himself in that position over and over?
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Quote Originally Posted by arkadymo:
If before making the parlay you thought Man U would win, and the line has moved in their favor, why the hell would you hedge out of a bet? If anything, the bet has more value now than before...
At current odds (-170), he has a $12,350 wager on ManU.
When are people going to realize that these enormous wagers on last games of parlays are part of the parlay process? Why not consider this when you bet it? You should have asked yourself "will I be comfortable having 12k on ManU on Monday"?
I will never understand it. Especially because of what Arko points out - his ticket is probably more at about -150 or so, meaning he is giving away so much more to hedge out of a bet that he could have hedged out of before he even made the bet.
These hedge threads are usually self fulfilling prophecies. If they are lucky enough to get to the last game, they are willing to GIVE AWAY MONEY to get out of the last game - when they could just get out of the last game by leaving it off in the first place.
I am not condemning parlays, or saying they are useless, I am just saying that if you are wiling to pay EXTRA to cancel a bet - and you have the choice to not make that bet for free - what kind of a person puts himself in that position over and over?
Thank you everyone for your input much appreciated. Manu Draw is now at +325 and Tott at +525. Tot plus >.5/1 is up to +125.
I have decided to deposit 1K to my bankroll to have 3K to guarantee profit (i am not hedging or trying to cancel my bet i'm just trying to make an educated wager to make at least 5K. Obviously rooting for Man U.
Going to wager :2000 on the draw (win 6500, 5500 profit)
Going to wager 1000 on Tot (win 5250 profit 4250)
I know I could just put 3000 on Tot +.5/1 (to win 3750) and potentially take back half the bet if Man U wins by 1 but I am not that risk averse
I fully understand that parlays are inherently a bad idea and maybe I should have gone with the 10 teamer and not the 11, but thats why I don't do this for a living.
Do you guys think the line will continue steaming in Man U's favor till 3PM? Getting greedy with the amazing price increase which helps me maximize value out of draw and Tott but scares the shit out of me because now I have to be prepared for a public bloodbath
Thanks again everyone for the advice and encouraging words.
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Thank you everyone for your input much appreciated. Manu Draw is now at +325 and Tott at +525. Tot plus >.5/1 is up to +125.
I have decided to deposit 1K to my bankroll to have 3K to guarantee profit (i am not hedging or trying to cancel my bet i'm just trying to make an educated wager to make at least 5K. Obviously rooting for Man U.
Going to wager :2000 on the draw (win 6500, 5500 profit)
Going to wager 1000 on Tot (win 5250 profit 4250)
I know I could just put 3000 on Tot +.5/1 (to win 3750) and potentially take back half the bet if Man U wins by 1 but I am not that risk averse
I fully understand that parlays are inherently a bad idea and maybe I should have gone with the 10 teamer and not the 11, but thats why I don't do this for a living.
Do you guys think the line will continue steaming in Man U's favor till 3PM? Getting greedy with the amazing price increase which helps me maximize value out of draw and Tott but scares the shit out of me because now I have to be prepared for a public bloodbath
Thanks again everyone for the advice and encouraging words.
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