Posted:
#201
Lucky for us all…it’s gone over. 
The impossible only takes longer….
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Euro 2020 / 2021 Preview and Game Picks thread.....
Posted:
#202
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Thanks for the nice words... As much as the Denmark game went according to plan.... I can't believe the Netherlands / N Macedonia game pushed on 3 goals. They couldve had 10. Still burning me up. I will update my record in the morning.... OK on to Tuesday with a little momentum: England / Czech Republic - England -1 EV (2.5 to win 2.5) According to my calculations.... The winner of this match will get either France, Germany, or Portugal - and the loser is likely to get the second or winner in Group E. It looks like the second and third place in Group D will get the second or first place team in Group E. Either way, I think England will be motivated to play the round of 16 match in London and win the group - which means they have to win this game. The Czechs are a sure thing to make the next round based on the results from today. I think England will roll the Czechs here. The Czechs benefitted from a phantom penalty against Croatia - and a team that had no ball control at all in the midfield (inexplicably). Englands speed of play is going to undue the Czechs, and the strange goals the Czechs have been scoring on relatively little chances has to stop somewhere. England get out to an early lead - and add on as the Czechs push with nothing to lose.... England 3-0 Croatia / Scotland - Over 2.5 +105 (4 units to win 4.2 units) - Why would anyone bet the over in a match with one team who has scored only 1 goal and the other 0? Because both teams have to win here. A draw and they are both out. Whichever team wins knows for certain they make the knockouts. It's pretty simple... The way this goes under is if it stays 0-0 past 70 minutes or so. If there is a goal at any time, there will be a massive push by the other side - and we have seen today what happens (Denmark, Netherlands). Playing a stretched defense and pushing extra men forward made a Danish side who had only scored one goal also get 4 today. Great spot here - hopefully an early goal - and then watch the fireworks from there..... Croatia 3-1 GL all
Thanks for the nice words... As much as the Denmark game went according to plan.... I can't believe the Netherlands / N Macedonia game pushed on 3 goals. They couldve had 10. Still burning me up. I will update my record in the morning.... OK on to Tuesday with a little momentum: England / Czech Republic - England -1 EV (2.5 to win 2.5) According to my calculations.... The winner of this match will get either France, Germany, or Portugal - and the loser is likely to get the second or winner in Group E. It looks like the second and third place in Group D will get the second or first place team in Group E. Either way, I think England will be motivated to play the round of 16 match in London and win the group - which means they have to win this game. The Czechs are a sure thing to make the next round based on the results from today. I think England will roll the Czechs here. The Czechs benefitted from a phantom penalty against Croatia - and a team that had no ball control at all in the midfield (inexplicably). Englands speed of play is going to undue the Czechs, and the strange goals the Czechs have been scoring on relatively little chances has to stop somewhere. England get out to an early lead - and add on as the Czechs push with nothing to lose.... England 3-0 Croatia / Scotland - Over 2.5 +105 (4 units to win 4.2 units) - Why would anyone bet the over in a match with one team who has scored only 1 goal and the other 0? Because both teams have to win here. A draw and they are both out. Whichever team wins knows for certain they make the knockouts. It's pretty simple... The way this goes under is if it stays 0-0 past 70 minutes or so. If there is a goal at any time, there will be a massive push by the other side - and we have seen today what happens (Denmark, Netherlands). Playing a stretched defense and pushing extra men forward made a Danish side who had only scored one goal also get 4 today. Great spot here - hopefully an early goal - and then watch the fireworks from there..... Croatia 3-1 GL all
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Posted:
#206
Updated Results:
+4.85 units (31.1 units up, 26.25 units down)
1. Turkey / Italy (Rome) – Turkey +.5 +168 (2 to win 3.36) LOSS
2. Wales / Switzerland (Baku) – Switzerland -.25 -110 (1.1 to win 1) HALF LOSS
3. Denmark / Finland (Copenhagen) – Under 2.25 -120 (2.4 to win 2) WIN
4. Belgium / Russia (St Petersburg) – Belgium .75 -110 (3.3 to win 3) WIN exact score
5. England / Croatia (London) – England -135 (1.35 to win 1) WIN
6. Austria / N Macedonia (Bucharest) – Under 2 +110 (2 units to win 2.2) LOSS
7. Ukraine / Netherlands (Amsterdam) – Under 2.25 -110 (1.1 to win 1) / under 2.5 (1 to win 1.1) LOSS
8. Scotland / Czech Republic (Glascow) - Scotland PK -115 (2.3 to win 2 units) LOSS
9. Poland / Slovakia (St Petersburg) - Slovakia +.5 +120 (2 units to win 2.4) WIN
10. Spain / Sweden (Seville) - Under 2.5 -106 (2.12 to win 2) WIN
11. Portugal / Hungary (Budapest) - PASS
12. France / Germany (Munich) - France PK -110 (2 units) WIN
13. Russia / Finland (St Petersburg) - Russia -138 (2.07 units to win 1.5) WIN
14. Turkey / Wales (Baku) - Turkey -.25 +110 (4 units to win 4.4) LOSS
15. Italy / Switzerland (Rome) - Draw +300 (.5 unit to win 1.5) and 0-0 +800 (.1 unit to win .8) LOSS
16. Ukraine / N Macedonia (Bucharest) - Ukraine -135 (2.7 to win 2) WIN
17. Denmark / Belgium (Copenhagen) - Denmark+.5 -118 (3.54 to win 3) LOSS
18. Netherlands / Austria (Amsterdam) - PASS (NO BET)
19. Sweden / Slovakia (St. Petersburg)- Under 2.25 -120 (2.4 to win 2) WIN
20. Croatia / Czech Republic (Glascow) - Croatia +125 (3 to win 3.75) LOSS
21. England / Scotland (London) - Under 2.5 -105 (1.05 to win 1) WIN
22. Hungary / France (Budapest) - PASS
23. Portugal / Germany (Munich) - Portugal +.25 -108 (2.16 to win 2) LOSS
24. Spain / Poland (Seville) - Spain -1.5 +110 (3 to win 3.3) LOSS
25. Italy / Wales - PASS
26. Switzerland / Turkey - PASS
27. Netherlands / N Macedonia (Amsterdam) - Over 3 -110 (2.2 to win 2) PUSH
28. Ukraine / Austria (Bucharest) - No Draw EV (2 to win 2) WIN
29. Denmark / Russia (Copenhagen) - Denmark -.75 EV (5 units to win 5) WIN
30. Finland / Belgium (St Petersburg) - PASS (no bet)
31. England / Czech Republic - England -1 EV (2.5 to win 2.5) PUSH
32. Croatia / Scotland - Over 2.5 +105 (4 units to win 4.2 units) WIN
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Posted:
#207
I think we saw yesterday that it is unlikely that England "rolls" anybody. This team will get beat, and probably by Portugal in their next match. We will see.
On to the last of the group games before a much needed break before the knockouts....
Wednesday:
Group E:
Sweden / Poland (St Petersburg) - Sweden +175 (1 unit to win 1.75) - Sweden has one goal in their first two matches and that was a PK against Slovakia. But the situation here dictates that it is a win or nothing for Poland - which means that the Swedes will do what they do best - defend and counter. Poland obviously has a great player who can score from anywhere - but as we have seen they are slow in buildup and attack and can't seem to get Lewandowski the chances he needs to convert. I just see the most likely script as a scoreless match for a while - and Poland has to press - and Sweden gets one or two in the second half to win. A draw is unlikely here so I am leaving off the PK. Sweden 2-1
Spain / Slovakia (Seville) - Slovakia +.5 +460 (.5 unit to win 2.3) - This is a simply a value play. I think the most likely result is a low scoring Spain win, but I certainly think the line should be closer to -200 than -500. I certainly wouldn't feel comfortable betting this Spain side here. Typical Spain here.... And typical Anti-Spain in Slovakia- pack back deep - let the wings remain open with space, pack central with 8 or 9 defenders - and watch Spain make 1000 passes but few real chances. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't - for Slovakia a draw suits them.... Most likely result is a 1-0 or 2-0 to Spain, but my bet is on Slovakia +.5 with the odds.
Group F:
Germany / Hungary (Munich) - PASS - I wanted to go over the total here, but 3.5 is just too much. I do think we will see a high scoring game simply because of the circumstances (Hungary must win), but I am not willing to do it at this price. If I start to see it closer to 3 that would be my bet, but officially a pass. Germany 3-1
Portugal / France (Budapest) - France +120 (2 to win 2.4) - Like the Spain match, this is a little bit of a value play. France at +120? Sign me up. Portugal showed against Germany that they are vulnerable at the back - you just don't fix those things overnight - and they were really all over the place. Portugal can lose here by up 2 goals and still get through, I am sure they know this - not that they won't be playing for a result - I just think if France get up by a goal Portugal will not push and leave space in the back because they are down. A 1-0 France win suits both, and I think that is exactly what we will see.
GL all
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Posted:
#209
While I am on the Spain subject.... Just because they can't seem to score and there is a clear defensive blueprint to play against them doesn't mean they won't do well and potentially win the tournament. Their style is much better suited to knockout matches than group play. If they get out of the group today - then this will be a very tough out in the knockouts. Just look at the history of this tournament to understand that.... Even just starting with Portugal in the last tournament.
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Posted:
#210
From my preview...
Sweden (6 points): I think they could contend for the group and are a good bet at 6.5-1. Organized, balanced, and experienced…. They are the right mix of being able to adapt to opponents style and succeed. Tough to get a result in Spain against Spain, but if they do they could pip the group.
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