Friday June 18
No time or energy for writeups....
19. Sweden / Slovakia (St. Petersburg)- Under 2.25 -120 (2.4 to win 2) - 0-0
20. Croatia / Czech Republic (Glascow) - Croatia +125 (3 to win 3.75) - 2-0
21. England / Scotland (London) - Under 2.5 -105 (1.05 to win 1) - 2-0
GL all -
Slovakia / Sweden thoughts.....
I have no idea what Sweden was doing for 75 minutes. They were very lucky to be bailed out and get the win. Not sure who on the Swedish sidelines thought a draw was a good result, but it would have meant a win was absolutely necessary against Poland in the final match, so a draw or a loss were basically the same thing to the Swedes in this game.
When a draw is the same as a loss, how do you play the style they played today? They won, but almost by accident.
No surprises from Slovakia today - a draw would have been great for them - and not getting it will likely mean they won't advance. It is simple for them - get at least a point from Spain (who no matter what happens in their match against Poland will be needing a result also) - but I don't see it happening.
It sure looks like this is a group that will not get a 3rd place team to advance.
I had Croatia. The draw was a fair result.
With that out of the way....
10 out of 10 not a penalty. 1,000 out of 1,000 not a VAR reviewed clear and obvious error.
And what was with the ref stopping the match 20 seconds early when Croatia had possession in the box? This also NEVER happens.
Some post match thoughts away from the Referee decisions....
Croatia are horrible on the ball. I mean - unrecognizable from three years ago. The Czechs did a lot of pressing and man marking of Modric - and time after time after time Croatia had no clue how to string a few passes together to get out of their own end. They got landlocked on the sidelines over and over - and lost the ball in situations most youth squads would have gotten out of. Now they have to beat Scotland - and likely Scotland will have to beat Croatia. Should be interesting.
Credit the Czechs, they played to their strengths but I still maintain this is not a good squad - although they will be moving on and likely to get a favorable matchup in Sweden in the knockouts - where England will likely get Germany or Portugal. A Sweden / Czech matchup has 0-0 after 500 minutes written all over it.
@barneybeans
YES..
Hey Van..thx for all the previews..it is an excellent guide to matchups..
Been a very profitable 1st week of tournament for me despite Turk's no show.. I'm going to suggest you start a Final match of group play thread after observation of first 2 matches of each team.. especially the impending implications of who wins/ties to get a more favorable matchups in the knockout stages..thanx again..have thoroughly enjoyed waking up and watching these Euro Cup games..
England / Scotland after match thoughts....
England are not going to win this tournament unless they figure out fast how to link midfield with both defense and attack. Its like they have 5 guys defending, and 5 guys in attack - and nobody has a clue how to bridge the gap. They really never consistently threatened today because they had no clue how to get past the first layer of Scottish defense - not the back line - the midfield line - this was where England lost the plot today. Kane was picking up the ball 40 yards from goal with nobody in front, Rece James must have passed it backwards 90% of the time because there were no runs in front or square of him - it was a blueprint by the Scots on how to beat England and I think England are exposed and in trouble.
England play the Czechs next match - and there is no reason the Czechs cant do exactly what Croatia and Scotland have done to them so far - basically dare England to work any kind of passing moves (the goal against Croatia is really the only exception) with speed and intention.
The crazy thing is that it is probably better for both teams to lose than to win. A draw means that the Czechs win the group and England are locked in to second place - and second place is probably Sweden and first is probably Portugal or Germany (but in London).
England is a -130 favorite against the Czechs. I wouldn't make a wager until I see lineups. Both teams might rest a lot of guys.
Updated Results:
-1.19 units (19.9 units up, 21.09 units down)
1. Turkey / Italy (Rome) – Turkey +.5 +168 (2 to win 3.36) LOSS
2. Wales / Switzerland (Baku) – Switzerland -.25 -110 (1.1 to win 1) HALF LOSS
3. Denmark / Finland (Copenhagen) – Under 2.25 -120 (2.4 to win 2) WIN
4. Belgium / Russia (St Petersburg) – Belgium .75 -110 (3.3 to win 3) WIN exact score
5. England / Croatia (London) – England -135 (1.35 to win 1) WIN
6. Austria / N Macedonia (Bucharest) – Under 2 +110 (2 units to win 2.2) LOSS
7. Ukraine / Netherlands (Amsterdam) – Under 2.25 -110 (1.1 to win 1) / under 2.5 (1 to win 1.1) LOSS
8. Scotland / Czech Republic (Glascow) - Scotland PK -115 (2.3 to win 2 units) LOSS
9. Poland / Slovakia (St Petersburg) - Slovakia +.5 +120 (2 units to win 2.4) WIN
10. Spain / Sweden (Seville) - Under 2.5 -106 (2.12 to win 2) WIN
11. Portugal / Hungary (Budapest) - PASS
12. France / Germany (Munich) - France PK -110 (2 units) WIN
13. Russia / Finland (St Petersburg) - Russia -138 (2.07 units to win 1.5) WIN
14. Turkey / Wales (Baku) - Turkey -.25 +110 (4 units to win 4.4) LOSS
15. Italy / Switzerland (Rome) - Draw +300 (.5 unit to win 1.5) and 0-0 +800 (.1 unit to win .8) LOSS
16. Ukraine / N Macedonia (Bucharest) - Ukraine -135 (2.7 to win 2) WIN
17. Denmark / Belgium (Copenhagen) - Denmark+.5 -118 (3.54 to win 3) LOSS
18. Netherlands / Austria (Amsterdam) - PASS (NO BET)
19. Sweden / Slovakia (St. Petersburg)- Under 2.25 -120 (2.4 to win 2) WIN
20. Croatia / Czech Republic (Glascow) - Croatia +125 (3 to win 3.75) LOSS
21. England / Scotland (London) - Under 2.5 -105 (1.05 to win 1) WIN
Once again, sorry about no writeups. Will have much more time over the weekend.
22. Hungary / France (Budapest) - PASS - final score France 2-0
23. Portugal / Germany (Munich) - Portugal +.25 -108 (2.16 to win 2) - final score 1-1
24. Spain / Poland (Seville) - Spain -1.5 +110 (3 to win 3.3) - final score 3-0
GL all
Hi Zack,
although you already touched it, do you have a take on how the odds of CZE-ENG will move towards game time? I shopped a lot of X for that game after todays CRO-CZE game at various Euro Bookies at +340/350 with the intention of trading after ENG-SCO, given the group situation, but missed ENG peaking at evens briefly at Pinna since then. However, while I do not regret buying those Xs, I think now that I overvalued it a lot still.
ENG is sitting at almost -160 as of now, which seems ridiculously low to me after watching the last two games today with at least one eye, at least given the tactical situation both are in:
- a draw against CZE will lock 2nd place for ENG; they would dodge anything from Group F ( while in Wembley) and play the 2nd of Group E in Copenhagen, which will likely be Sweden but might end up being Spain ( at maybe a 25-30% rate). However, as ENG is playing their 3rd game before Groups E and F, they will not know their possible opposition and might decide to go for homecourt given the opportunity.
- there is quite a chance ENG will know that they are qualified for sure before game time. There could very likely be less than two 4-point-3rd places in Groups A-C alone by then( lets say Group A is 40-45%, Group B 85-90% and Group C around 50% to not produce a 4-point-3rd, if the markets are correct) and things like France and Portugal winning tomorrow would all but seal the deal. While this could lead to ENG benching players, they might press harder to win ( given they want to) without the risk of elimination.
To be honest, I would have problems on sorting that out and consulting England what to wish for if they could choose a result without playing a game. And- given they choose a draw- having to play through some sort of game they are trying not to win ( with or without having to fear losing) might really not help them rhythm- and chemistry-wise.
Thanks for all the work and good luck!
Would've loved to have seen your write-up on the Portugal-Germany game. Not surprising, That is expected to be the most competitive game of the day on Sat. IMHO, the French are the best team in the world, and not even close if they put all their collective individual talent together as a 1 unit. That is always the challenge, and I thought they did that against the Germans.
Portugal's game indicated a blowout, but a PK by Ronaldo and a late goal made it appear more dominating than the game on the field.
I think the Germans are the hungrier and better team here , and was actually surprised to see the odds makers in agreement.
Really looking forward to this game
I completely missed the France game , but the final result seems to indicate they got work to do. Will be interested to hear from Van on his thoughts..
Moving forward to the 2nd game, what is going on w Portugal ? Wow, all the love and admiration from the media is undeserved for this team. I came away unimpressed w their previous match, but this was redicous. They showed little interest/desire to build the attack for the first 60 minutes, w their lone goal to that point coming on a counter attack. So, their two goals today come on a set piece and a counter attack. Not good.
Portugal's next match against France is gonna be real interesting..
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