Euro 2020 / 2021 Preview and Game Picks thread.....

Spain messing up should likely end speculations about ENG going for a draw/loss against CZE. Possibly Spain in Kopenhagen and the 1. of Group F in the quarters shouldnt be the easier path to the semis. Sold my Xs for about -250/260.

On a bad run here.....  Pressing on....

Spain - I shoulda listened to myself here.  Spain just can't score goals.

Sunday:

Both games on Sunday are a pass for me.  Only because Italy might rest a lot of players, and Wales might also.  Switzerland (who has to win) at -140 is not something I want to be involved with - who knows which Turkey side shows up.

GL - better games ahead on Monday.

Always a great thread by Vanzack on these big soccer events. 

Props to you for continuing to post even after getting demolished.  It’s easy to just go away for a while. Your analysis is solid, but as we all know anything can happen in sports.

Vanzack just faxed me his picks for Sunday! He said we're taking Turkey to win/draw and under 2.5. In the other game, Wales to win/draw and under 2.5.

You heard from me boys, these are the pick!

 Hot off the fax machine. Excuse me, I just got a page and need to make a phone call.

Monday June 20:

Group C

Netherlands / N Macedonia (Amsterdam) - Over 3 -110 (2.2 to win 2) - Netherlands should rest a lot of players here.  We saw today in Turkey what can happen when a team who has nothing to play for gets stretched pushing in the last half hour.  I think there will be goals here.  Netherlands 4-1

Ukraine / Austria (Bucharest) - No Draw EV (2 to win 2) - I realize the draw probably gets both sides through, but in the real world this is not easy to orchestrate.  Austria has to be concerned that a 0-0 draw won't potentially get them in the knockouts.  Ukraine 2-1

Group B

Denmark / Russia (Copenhagen) - Denmark -.75 EV (5 units to win 5) - Great matchup here for Denmark in a slow, aging mistake prone team in Russia. It is very possible that Denmark get second in the group with a win, and with a loss either team would likely be out.  Denmark gets the first goal and piles it on when Russia push to equalize...  Denmark 3-0

Finland / Belgium (St Petersburg - PASS (no bet) - Belgium should rest a lot of players here, have first place all but locked up.  Should see a bunch of Belgian possession and a lot of Fin defending.  Belgium 1-0

Belgium will not rest players Vanzack, they will probably play with their typical line up including KDB, Lukaku and Hazard. 

For Austria to not qualify by playing 0:0, Finland would have to win or score at least two goals in a draw  and Russia would have to win by a margin of 2+. And that is only group B. Having said that, I think laying EV for the draw is a good bet nonetheless. Good luck!

Martinez has confirmed that KDB, Witsel, E. Hazard and Courtois will start, he says he's not sure whether to put in Lukaku or Batshuayi, we'll see.

 Nice Comeback day, Van 

hell of a call on Denmark

Thanks for the nice words...

As much as the Denmark game went according to plan.... I can't believe the Netherlands / N Macedonia game pushed on 3 goals.  They couldve had 10.  Still burning me up.

I will update my record in the morning....

OK on to Tuesday with a little momentum:

England / Czech Republic - England -1 EV (2.5 to win 2.5) According to my calculations....  The winner of this match will get either France, Germany, or Portugal - and the loser is likely to get the second or winner in Group E.  It looks like the second and third place in Group D will get the second or first place team in Group E.  Either way, I think England will be motivated to play the round of 16 match in London and win the group - which means they have to win this game. The Czechs are a sure thing to make the next round based on the results from today.  

I think England will roll the Czechs here.  The Czechs benefitted from a phantom penalty against Croatia - and a team that had no ball control at all in the midfield (inexplicably).  Englands speed of play is going to undue the Czechs, and the strange goals the Czechs have been scoring on relatively little chances has to stop somewhere.  England get out to an early lead - and add on as the Czechs push with nothing to lose....  England 3-0

Croatia / Scotland - Over 2.5 +105 (4 units to win 4.2 units) - Why would anyone bet the over in a match with one team who has scored only 1 goal and the other 0?  Because both teams have to win here.  A draw and they are both out.  Whichever team wins knows for certain they make the knockouts.  It's pretty simple...  The way this goes under is if it stays 0-0 past 70 minutes or so.  If there is a goal at any time, there will be a massive push by the other side - and we have seen today what happens (Denmark, Netherlands).  Playing a stretched defense and pushing extra men forward made a Danish side who had only scored one goal also get 4 today.  Great spot here - hopefully an early goal - and then watch the fireworks from there.....   Croatia 3-1

GL all

Why do England want to play France, Germany, or Portugal in the next round - as the winner of Group-D?

Playing the runner up from Group-E would be an easier route - as the runner up of Group-D.

Portugal in London sounds better to me than Spain neutral.

Disagree?

Either way, England is playing to win tomorrow. They wont be rotating squad.

They might not face Spain if Spain win that group which could still happens.

Sounds reasonable, I might give them another chance.

Updated Results:

+.4 units (26.9 units up, 26.25 units down)

1. Turkey / Italy (Rome) – Turkey +.5 +168 (2 to win 3.36) LOSS
2. Wales / Switzerland (Baku) – Switzerland -.25 -110 (1.1 to win 1) HALF LOSS
3. Denmark / Finland (Copenhagen) – Under 2.25 -120 (2.4 to win 2) WIN
4. Belgium / Russia (St Petersburg) – Belgium .75 -110 (3.3 to win 3) WIN exact score
5. England / Croatia (London) – England -135 (1.35 to win 1) WIN
6. Austria / N Macedonia (Bucharest) – Under 2 +110 (2 units to win 2.2) LOSS
7. Ukraine / Netherlands (Amsterdam) – Under 2.25 -110 (1.1 to win 1) / under 2.5 (1 to win 1.1) LOSS
8. Scotland / Czech Republic (Glascow) - Scotland PK -115 (2.3 to win 2 units) LOSS
9. Poland / Slovakia (St Petersburg) - Slovakia +.5 +120 (2 units to win 2.4) WIN
10. Spain / Sweden (Seville) - Under 2.5 -106 (2.12 to win 2) WIN
11. Portugal / Hungary (Budapest) - PASS 
12. France / Germany (Munich) - France PK -110 (2 units) WIN
13.  Russia / Finland (St Petersburg) - Russia -138 (2.07 units to win 1.5) WIN
14. Turkey / Wales (Baku) - Turkey -.25 +110 (4 units to win 4.4) LOSS
15. Italy / Switzerland (Rome) - Draw +300 (.5 unit to win 1.5) and 0-0 +800 (.1 unit to win .8) LOSS
16. Ukraine / N Macedonia (Bucharest) - Ukraine -135 (2.7 to win 2) WIN
17. Denmark / Belgium (Copenhagen) - Denmark+.5 -118 (3.54 to win 3) LOSS
18. Netherlands / Austria (Amsterdam) - PASS (NO BET) 
19. Sweden / Slovakia (St. Petersburg)- Under 2.25 -120 (2.4 to win 2) WIN
20. Croatia / Czech Republic (Glascow) - Croatia +125 (3 to win 3.75) LOSS
21. England / Scotland (London) - Under 2.5 -105 (1.05 to win 1) WIN
22. Hungary / France (Budapest) - PASS 
23. Portugal / Germany (Munich) - Portugal +.25 -108 (2.16 to win 2) LOSS
24. Spain / Poland (Seville) - Spain -1.5 +110 (3 to win 3.3) LOSS
25. Italy / Wales - PASS
26. Switzerland / Turkey - PASS
27. Netherlands / N Macedonia (Amsterdam) - Over 3 -110 (2.2 to win 2)  PUSH
28. Ukraine / Austria (Bucharest) - No Draw EV (2 to win 2)  WIN
29. Denmark / Russia (Copenhagen) - Denmark -.75 EV (5 units to win 5) WIN
30. Finland / Belgium (St Petersburg) - PASS (no bet) 

These are my pre-tournament future wagers.  I will add these to my record after the group stage.

Future Wagers:

Winner comes from Group F:  +160 (3 units to win 4.8)
Group A winner:  Turkey +650 (1 unit to win 6.5 units)
Turkey to reach final 8 +260 (.5 unit to win 1.3)
Group D winner England -220 (4.4 to win 2)
Czechs not to qualify -120 (1.2 to win 1)
Poland under 3.5 pts +120 (2 to win 2.4)
France to win Group F +140 (2 to win 2.8)
France to win tournament +450 (1 to win 4.5)
Turkey to win tournament +65-1 (.3 unit to win 19.5)

GL Van 

Vanzack 

1-1 43rd.  

If this game goes under, I will retire.