Euro 2020 / 2021 Knockout Stage (continued from original thread)

New thread for knockouts....

Updated Results INCLUDING FUTURES through the group stages:

      +9.3 units (41.05 units up, 31.75 units down)

 Remaining Futures:
Winner comes from Group F:  +160 (3 units to win 4.8)
France to win tournament +450 (1 to win 4.5)

Out of the groups, and on to the knockouts. A very different animal indeed.

One thing to note is that group success (or lack of success) doesn't always translate in to similar results in the knockout stages. Three of the last five winners did not win their group. The reason for this? Group play is a much different strategy than the knockout stages - and teams that can play a style to do just enough to get by in the groups often do very well in the knockouts. For MLB fans - it is similar to having a 162 game season that ends in a 3 out of 5 matchup in the playoffs - a team built to win in a 162 game season isn't necessarily built to do well in a 3 out of 5.

So who does well? Typically - just taking results since 2000 onwards - it is disciplined defensive sides rather than teams who try to outscore their opponents. If this holds, this is probably not good news for the Netherlands, Belgium, Portugal and Germany - but very good news for teams like Sweden, Denmark, France, England, Italy, and Spain. History doesn't necessarily predict the future - but there are some logical reasons to support this.

The top half of the bracket is certainly more loaded than the bottom. The Netherlands for instance have a clear path to the final if they can keep outscoring their opponents - with their toughest match being probably either England or Germany in the Semifinal. As opposed to a team like Belgium - who will likely have to beat Portugal, Italy, and France to get to the final. Quite a disparity there.

So who do I think has the advantage in the knockouts? I will go in order of my most likely to win to my least likely - keep in mind this is not taking prices in to effect - this is totally without value involved...

1. France: (odds +425) The most balanced team in the tournament. Built to do well in knockouts. Experience. Will have to go through a tough road - Switzerland, Spain, and then likely Portugal or Belgium - but they should be favored in every match they play the rest of the way and deservedly so.

2. England: (odds +675) England are not the second best team in this tournament. This has a lot to do with the fact that they will play 3 out of their 4 matches at home, and the draw they have. In fact, I dont think England are in the top 5 of teams left. They are tactically built to get past Germany (more on this later), and then have favorable matchups until potentially the Netherlands. Deep squad - but redundant depth - they don't have too many options to change shape or tactics - just duplicate types of players that can fill in for injuries and rotation.

3. Netherlands (+975) This Dutch team has big worries on defense. But their matchups favor them, and they might just be able to outscore opponents for 4 matches. Losing Luuk DeJong is a big loss. Not a typical type of winner of this tournament.

4. Italy (+650) This is the best performing team in the group stages - bar none. Their defense has been outstanding - their attack has been flawless also. I am worried about their matchups and path and a potential semi-final against France. Would not be surprised at all to see the Italians lift the cup.

5. Portugal (+1500) They certainly had a bad game against Germany - and one that exposed some of their flaws defensively - they were all over the place. But now in the knockouts - if this side does what they did in 2016 which is play extremely conservatively and only attack with limited numbers - it is a strategy that could pay off for them. Their road is very tough - and matchups aren't great - but a few PK shootouts and they could win it.

6. Spain (+700) I said it before and I will say it again.... Spain just cant score goals and they aren't good enough defensively to keep advancing on 0-0 and 1-0 type of games. If somehow Morata and crew starts scoring, all bets are off - but for now - they will struggle with Croatia and do not have a good prognosis against France in the quarters.

7. Belgium (+900) This side just doesnt have the defenders to pull this off. They are similar in my opinion (but better) than the Netherlands. They will get beat in one of these tough draw matches where they just get outscored. Unfortunately, I see this "golden generation" fading off without a trophy.

8. Denmark (+2000) Who has the most chances on goal in this tournament? Denmark. But they haven't converted them - so are they due or are they just terrible at converting? We will see. One thing is for certain - they are defensively sound - and they have a great draw. Get past the Netherlands in the quarterfinals and they could easily find themselves in the final with a lot of momentum and emotions.

9. Sweden (+6500) Sweden are tough to break down. I wrote in my original preview how adaptable they are to styles and tactics - and we saw that in three very different group matches. If they get a few timely goals, and continue to not allow goals - and a few PK shootouts - this side could be there at the final.

10. Germany (+700) This team is a mess. I am almost glad that they looked great against a total hot mess of a Portugal side - because it makes people forget what this side really is - aging and inexperienced at the same time - with a slow defense that will get exposed. The only reason I put them this high is if they get past England, they have an easy road to the final.

11. Croatia (+8000) Nothing so far has led me to think Croatia is anything close to their 2018 version. But I am putting them in this position only because they fit the profile of a team that should do well in the knockouts - and have the experienced players to pull it off. I wouldnt put my money on them - but I guess they have a shot.

The remaining 5 teams can be bunched together as Lottery Tickets: Ukraine, Switzerland, Czechs, Wales, and Austria. All 5 should be out in their first match.

Game match picks and writeups coming soon....

Great record Braddah…great insight.  Thank you for taking the time to share and GL. 

Yeah 

Thanks

Vanzack

You are the Best!

  Thanks for your time...

Best of luck Brother 

Sweep your board 

One note for beginner tournament bettors.....  The line you see with the home / draw / away is for 90 minutes plus stoppage time.  If it goes to ET, your bet is already settled.  

Saturday:

Wales / Denmark (Amsterdam) - Denmark -110 (90 minutes) (2.2 to win 2) I like Denmark in this one, but I do not love the line.  Denmark have the most attempts on goal in the group stages, and have XG (expected goals) of 3.86 for and only 1.33 against in their three group matches.  Wales should have a full team and start the same 11 they started in the first two matches.  Denmark beat Wales twice (home and away) in 2018 in Nations League matches.

I hope we see Denmark in the same all out attack mode they were in against Russia - with the wingbacks (Wass and Mahle) terrorizing the flanks and getting up and back.  Wales was a little bit exposed in covering Italy down the flanks - but Turkey and Switzerland didnt pose this type of challenge in their 4 at the back formations.  Look for Braithwaite to burn through on his outside in runs and get in behind the Welsh defense.  Denmark 2-0

Italy / Austria (London) Italy -210 (90 minutes) (2.1 to win 1) - Italy are coming in off of the back of 10 straight wins and an almost unbelievable 11 matches in a row without conceding a goal.  That is incredible.  But 2 of the starting back 4 of Italy are likely out (Chiellini and Florenzi).  Italy have the highest XG for in the tournament so far, they look balanced and fluid and to be quite honest - they have the look of a champion.  The midfield play has been stellar - along with every other facet of their lineup.

Austria can play a style that is hard to match up with - especially after them ditching a 3 man defensive back for their more traditional 4 man back after the first match.  But I just can't make a case to bet them here.  I realize the line is -210, I hate laying that much - but Italy have 10 ways to beat this team and Austria have basically 1 - defend and counter.  That is it.  My unit size is small because of the juice involved here - but the result is the same:  Italy 2-0

Better matches and wager opportunities to come....

Wolfeman, Pack4ever, DU4L...

As always...

van 

Very good read as always. Win them all sir.

There is good reason why Croatia don't look the form from years ago.... Ivan Rakitic .  His absence changes this team from the best mid fielding team to one that relies entirely on Luca Modric.  That being said, this Spaniard team is wildly inconsistent and deserves a flier on the opposing side.  I'll take Crotia at better than +500 .  That to me is value.  

Denmark 

Denmark 

@vanzack

Do you plan on doing an Olympics soccer thread like this one? Always a good read

Good Luck the rest of the way

@vanzack

 seeing italy 2-0 as well

bit of value in the under if you like italy to keep a clean sheet

Thanks Van

Wow.  No Wass or Poulsen on the Denmark team today.  That is unexpected for sure.

Fuse's spirit is here 

@vanzack

 What do you think of Denmark’s chances to advance with their tweaks of the starting line up?

Good luck today

thanks for the picks

Post match thoughts....

Denmark looked very good today.  Outside of about ten minutes early in the first half - they found their bearings and never really looked threatened again.  What a match by Maehle and Stryger Larssen (the replacement for Wass).  The wingbacks were the difference today for Denmark.  But also their tight passing in possession.  For anyone who has it on tape....  Go to the 64 minute mark where Denmark strings together 16 one touch passes under pressure - this is not international football - this is club football - and an amazing thing to see and indicative as to why this team is dangerous.

Bale hit some incredible passes today as he has done all tournament - but just not in dangerous enough positions to make a difference.  The refereeing was overblown by the US broadcasters - I was watching both the British feed and the American feed and the differences in commentating is funny.  There were some 50/50 calls all over the field.  The red card made no difference at all.

If Denmark play the Dutch.... It will be a very similar type of game as to when they played Belgium and probably should have had a better result.  

Italy failing to score in the first twenty minutes hopefully wont come back to haunt them

One of those days where I feel like I didn't listen to myself.  I should have had more on Denmark and less on Italy and I knew it going in.

Ongoing....

I will be posting the rest of the games after I get lineups - about an hour to an hour and half before kick off.  There is too much variation - and there are huge differences for me and the way I wager.

So until tomorrow....