@vanzack How do you feel about booking over under game bets ? which countries do you feel have a heated rivalry for lots of cards to be thrown out and which national teams have absolutely no discipline ? My line of thought Scotland vs England ? Potential to be a rough slugfest but potentially England side way too technical team to be handed out any ? Macadonia playing with nerves/anxious probably be giving a red card 2/3 games they play not sure about any others... but would like your take on it ... Also corner bets which side/sides have weakesr goalie for punchouts and poor defence playing against best aerial attacks ?
i wouldn’t play an over cards bet in any England match TBH
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Quote Originally Posted by criticalwager:
@vanzack How do you feel about booking over under game bets ? which countries do you feel have a heated rivalry for lots of cards to be thrown out and which national teams have absolutely no discipline ? My line of thought Scotland vs England ? Potential to be a rough slugfest but potentially England side way too technical team to be handed out any ? Macadonia playing with nerves/anxious probably be giving a red card 2/3 games they play not sure about any others... but would like your take on it ... Also corner bets which side/sides have weakesr goalie for punchouts and poor defence playing against best aerial attacks ?
i wouldn’t play an over cards bet in any England match TBH
Vanzack, thanks for the great write ups and best of luck this tournament. Since I'm a native, I'd like to comment on your thoughts for Belgium. KDB will be ok, he'll miss the first game, but had a small procedure and will likely play without a mask. I agree on Lukaku. I disagree somewhat on Martinez. I don't think he's that great, he seems to be stuck on certain people and I don't find him very adaptable when it comes to playing teams that are difficult for the Belgians. His insistence on a 3 men defensive line will cost us big time, especially if 2 out of the 3 are Vermaelen and Vertonghen. Boyata and Denayer don't have my confidence either. Lucky for us, Courtois will be a rock as always. He couldn't bring himself to replace Chadli and Witsel, both lack serious matchplay and are not even close to being fit. I can see you bring a questionable Eden Hazard along, but not those two with the other options available. Belgium should win the group, but then when it's for the cookies, I'll be watching every game with serious apprehension, of course I dream we'll win it all, but not putting a dime on it myself. Have a great tourney!
Good to see you Ganda, must be an exciting time to be from Belgium.
Look - Martinez basically invented (or some might say re-introduced) the 3 CB defense (with "wingbacks") at Wigan about a decade ago. He loves this system - he designed it - and lives and dies by it. I understand what you are saying about personnel to play it - and it is a valid argument to say that Vermaelen and Vertonghen arent up to the task anymore. I get it. I won't be surprised to see this change throughout depending on opponent and success.
I think the Chadli and Witsel decisions are based on team longevity and chemistry. This team - give or take - is in about year 6 and I think if you asked him he would tell you that for the reasons I wrote in my preview (short prep time etc) that given the choice to give up form or a little bit of quality in trade for chemistry - he would take the latter.
For a country the size of Belgium, to compete at this level is an amazing accomplishment. It just might be their time.
GL -
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Quote Originally Posted by Ganda:
Vanzack, thanks for the great write ups and best of luck this tournament. Since I'm a native, I'd like to comment on your thoughts for Belgium. KDB will be ok, he'll miss the first game, but had a small procedure and will likely play without a mask. I agree on Lukaku. I disagree somewhat on Martinez. I don't think he's that great, he seems to be stuck on certain people and I don't find him very adaptable when it comes to playing teams that are difficult for the Belgians. His insistence on a 3 men defensive line will cost us big time, especially if 2 out of the 3 are Vermaelen and Vertonghen. Boyata and Denayer don't have my confidence either. Lucky for us, Courtois will be a rock as always. He couldn't bring himself to replace Chadli and Witsel, both lack serious matchplay and are not even close to being fit. I can see you bring a questionable Eden Hazard along, but not those two with the other options available. Belgium should win the group, but then when it's for the cookies, I'll be watching every game with serious apprehension, of course I dream we'll win it all, but not putting a dime on it myself. Have a great tourney!
Good to see you Ganda, must be an exciting time to be from Belgium.
Look - Martinez basically invented (or some might say re-introduced) the 3 CB defense (with "wingbacks") at Wigan about a decade ago. He loves this system - he designed it - and lives and dies by it. I understand what you are saying about personnel to play it - and it is a valid argument to say that Vermaelen and Vertonghen arent up to the task anymore. I get it. I won't be surprised to see this change throughout depending on opponent and success.
I think the Chadli and Witsel decisions are based on team longevity and chemistry. This team - give or take - is in about year 6 and I think if you asked him he would tell you that for the reasons I wrote in my preview (short prep time etc) that given the choice to give up form or a little bit of quality in trade for chemistry - he would take the latter.
For a country the size of Belgium, to compete at this level is an amazing accomplishment. It just might be their time.
@vanzack How do you feel about booking over under game bets ? which countries do you feel have a heated rivalry for lots of cards to be thrown out and which national teams have absolutely no discipline ? My line of thought Scotland vs England ? Potential to be a rough slugfest but potentially England side way too technical team to be handed out any ? Macadonia playing with nerves/anxious probably be giving a red card 2/3 games they play not sure about any others... but would like your take on it ... Also corner bets which side/sides have weakesr goalie for punchouts and poor defence playing against best aerial attacks ?
Not knocking anybody for these niche bets.... Just not something I follow or analyze. For many reasons - one being you cant get enough money down at the numbers you want without major line moves - and also because there is just too much to analyze and I stick with what I feel I know best. Feel free to share these kinds of tips as the tournament moves along.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
1
Quote Originally Posted by criticalwager:
@vanzack How do you feel about booking over under game bets ? which countries do you feel have a heated rivalry for lots of cards to be thrown out and which national teams have absolutely no discipline ? My line of thought Scotland vs England ? Potential to be a rough slugfest but potentially England side way too technical team to be handed out any ? Macadonia playing with nerves/anxious probably be giving a red card 2/3 games they play not sure about any others... but would like your take on it ... Also corner bets which side/sides have weakesr goalie for punchouts and poor defence playing against best aerial attacks ?
Not knocking anybody for these niche bets.... Just not something I follow or analyze. For many reasons - one being you cant get enough money down at the numbers you want without major line moves - and also because there is just too much to analyze and I stick with what I feel I know best. Feel free to share these kinds of tips as the tournament moves along.
good to see you Van, great that your backing France as well.
I hate taking heavy favs but taking everything into consideration can't see past France, I loved the value of Spain and think they've the best player's coming through but what a mess they are in at the moment.
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good to see you Van, great that your backing France as well.
I hate taking heavy favs but taking everything into consideration can't see past France, I loved the value of Spain and think they've the best player's coming through but what a mess they are in at the moment.
GL Van, thanks for sharing your insight here I apologize in advance for my lack of knowledge - how is home field determined in this event?
This is a totally unusual tournament. It is usually one country that hosts - determine by committee years in advance - but this year they decided to split it (not related to Covid) amongst 11 host cities. But.... They also allowed certain countries to be at "home" also - which is unusual and frankly I dont like. Why does Hungary get the chance to play Germany, France, and Portugal all at home in a stadium that has no capacity restrictions? The answer is probably Hungary paid a lot of money to FIFA / UEFA and Sepp Blatter and thats why. I say that sarcastically - but not really.
The knockout rounds are already determined with locations - conveniently if the host (home) country of the group games wins the group - they have a very good chance of playing at home in the knockouts. That is why there will be a big desire by these home countries to win the groups they are in - because the reward is staying at home. England will play 6 out of 7 games in Wembley if they go to the final and win their group.
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1
Quote Originally Posted by packersbackers:
GL Van, thanks for sharing your insight here I apologize in advance for my lack of knowledge - how is home field determined in this event?
This is a totally unusual tournament. It is usually one country that hosts - determine by committee years in advance - but this year they decided to split it (not related to Covid) amongst 11 host cities. But.... They also allowed certain countries to be at "home" also - which is unusual and frankly I dont like. Why does Hungary get the chance to play Germany, France, and Portugal all at home in a stadium that has no capacity restrictions? The answer is probably Hungary paid a lot of money to FIFA / UEFA and Sepp Blatter and thats why. I say that sarcastically - but not really.
The knockout rounds are already determined with locations - conveniently if the host (home) country of the group games wins the group - they have a very good chance of playing at home in the knockouts. That is why there will be a big desire by these home countries to win the groups they are in - because the reward is staying at home. England will play 6 out of 7 games in Wembley if they go to the final and win their group.
Spain situation is not good right now. Im not sure it was great before their covid issues - I just really dont see them scoring enough goals and it will trip them up sooner or later. It is definitely a watch and see approach.
To everyone else - thanks for the kind words and look forward to hanging for the next several weeks.
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@MakePwithMe
Spain situation is not good right now. Im not sure it was great before their covid issues - I just really dont see them scoring enough goals and it will trip them up sooner or later. It is definitely a watch and see approach.
To everyone else - thanks for the kind words and look forward to hanging for the next several weeks.
For another perspective.... Transfermarkt is a site that puts a trade value on all players globally. This link provides the value of each country playing in the Euros, made up from the sum of the players on the squads.
Some might find this useful - or interesting - or both.
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For another perspective.... Transfermarkt is a site that puts a trade value on all players globally. This link provides the value of each country playing in the Euros, made up from the sum of the players on the squads.
Some might find this useful - or interesting - or both.
good info as always What has been your most successful tournament ( I think you'll probably answer WC 2010 ) and do you think you can beat it this year ?
My memory is shot for things like this, but hoping for a good tournament.
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Quote Originally Posted by I-Got-5-On-It:
good info as always What has been your most successful tournament ( I think you'll probably answer WC 2010 ) and do you think you can beat it this year ?
My memory is shot for things like this, but hoping for a good tournament.
For those interested in line movement trends.... I expect the Italy line to move up until about 1 hour before kickoff, and then get bought back down. At about -195 now, maybe go up to like -210, and then get bought back down. Just speculation - but this is typical trend in public games like this one.
As expected.....
Italy -220 now. Im waiting to pull the trigger on best possible Turkey line, but I expect to get them +.5 +200.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
For those interested in line movement trends.... I expect the Italy line to move up until about 1 hour before kickoff, and then get bought back down. At about -195 now, maybe go up to like -210, and then get bought back down. Just speculation - but this is typical trend in public games like this one.
As expected.....
Italy -220 now. Im waiting to pull the trigger on best possible Turkey line, but I expect to get them +.5 +200.
just no time to comment 
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