Grand Finale: At first, I really liked Italy in this matchup. I think they will have more chances on the day, and are likely to win. But I also really like the over, so this will be a split bet for me.
Italy +250 (90 Minutes) (2 units to win 5) Italy to lift trophy +123 (2 units to win 2.46) Over 2 +107 (2 units to win 2.14)
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Updated Results
+13.36 units (62.31 units up, 48.95 units down)
Grand Finale: At first, I really liked Italy in this matchup. I think they will have more chances on the day, and are likely to win. But I also really like the over, so this will be a split bet for me.
Italy +250 (90 Minutes) (2 units to win 5) Italy to lift trophy +123 (2 units to win 2.46) Over 2 +107 (2 units to win 2.14)
England have played and beaten Croatia, Scotland, Czech, Germany, Ukraine, and Denmark. None of those teams play the style of Italy, and none possess the ground passing speed of the Azurri. But Italy have a real challenge with the injury of left back Spinazzola. Italy's major attacking force in the first five matches was down the left flank - where Spinazzola created all kinds of chances by himself - which allowed Italy to pack attackers in the box because he could handle the wing by himself. In the match against Spain, we saw how much he was missed as Spain just packed in the center and Italy was unable to really create anything past the 75th minute. So I won't be surprised to see Italy allow possession for England and set up counter-attacks with speed up the center of the pitch. The key to the game for Italy will be turning over England in deep positions and starting a counter attack with pace. But the Spinazzola injury can't be understated - and is why I think they looked lost for large stretches against Spain - and might again today.
I am surprised that England are playing Kane in a false 9. I understand that is what he does at club level, but he has been largely ineffective in this tournament when picking up the ball in front of the back defensive line and trying to create. The one match where he played a true striker positioning was the Ukraine game and he scored twice and was dominant. Italy is likely to allocate a man to Kane - probably Jorginho - to sit on him in between lines and allow the center backs Bonnuci and Chiellini to stay home and not be drawn to Kane to allow a zig zag back line with gaps for Englands runners up front. If Italy can neutralize Kane, and even better turn him over - it might be a frustrating day for England. For me - the higher Kane is up the pitch when he receives the ball the better it is for England - period. If his first touches are in the final third, and preferably the penalty box - England have a great chance to win the game.
England has played a very high defensive line throughout - maybe because of their competition - but if they do it again today surely Italy will be putting through balls in (especially on the break) and it will come down to Kyle Walker and Declan Rice to be the speed that can clean this up. Italy possesses the most speed on the attacking front that England has seen - and these kinds of chances are very high risk high reward. One through ball that creates a one on one is worth a whole half of chances of slower build up play - and I just see this as being one of the keys to the match. Italy wins by springing a few of these chances and converting one or two of them.
Overall - I look for England to have most of the possession - but Italy to dominate in high value chances on goal. If Italy turn England over and attack with pace, England will wither over the course of the day. Especially if they have to push to chase the game. England win if they get Kane in to a more traditional striker role with Saka and Sterling doing the attacking down the flanks and using tight combination play to beat the Italian aging CBs (like the Morata Spain goal). Number of chances will be close, but quality of chances will favor Italy. Italy wins 2-1 in 90
Overall, a fantastic tournament. Only 1 year until the WC. So happy to see Messi finally win last night.
Gl all - follow me on twitter if you like.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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England have played and beaten Croatia, Scotland, Czech, Germany, Ukraine, and Denmark. None of those teams play the style of Italy, and none possess the ground passing speed of the Azurri. But Italy have a real challenge with the injury of left back Spinazzola. Italy's major attacking force in the first five matches was down the left flank - where Spinazzola created all kinds of chances by himself - which allowed Italy to pack attackers in the box because he could handle the wing by himself. In the match against Spain, we saw how much he was missed as Spain just packed in the center and Italy was unable to really create anything past the 75th minute. So I won't be surprised to see Italy allow possession for England and set up counter-attacks with speed up the center of the pitch. The key to the game for Italy will be turning over England in deep positions and starting a counter attack with pace. But the Spinazzola injury can't be understated - and is why I think they looked lost for large stretches against Spain - and might again today.
I am surprised that England are playing Kane in a false 9. I understand that is what he does at club level, but he has been largely ineffective in this tournament when picking up the ball in front of the back defensive line and trying to create. The one match where he played a true striker positioning was the Ukraine game and he scored twice and was dominant. Italy is likely to allocate a man to Kane - probably Jorginho - to sit on him in between lines and allow the center backs Bonnuci and Chiellini to stay home and not be drawn to Kane to allow a zig zag back line with gaps for Englands runners up front. If Italy can neutralize Kane, and even better turn him over - it might be a frustrating day for England. For me - the higher Kane is up the pitch when he receives the ball the better it is for England - period. If his first touches are in the final third, and preferably the penalty box - England have a great chance to win the game.
England has played a very high defensive line throughout - maybe because of their competition - but if they do it again today surely Italy will be putting through balls in (especially on the break) and it will come down to Kyle Walker and Declan Rice to be the speed that can clean this up. Italy possesses the most speed on the attacking front that England has seen - and these kinds of chances are very high risk high reward. One through ball that creates a one on one is worth a whole half of chances of slower build up play - and I just see this as being one of the keys to the match. Italy wins by springing a few of these chances and converting one or two of them.
Overall - I look for England to have most of the possession - but Italy to dominate in high value chances on goal. If Italy turn England over and attack with pace, England will wither over the course of the day. Especially if they have to push to chase the game. England win if they get Kane in to a more traditional striker role with Saka and Sterling doing the attacking down the flanks and using tight combination play to beat the Italian aging CBs (like the Morata Spain goal). Number of chances will be close, but quality of chances will favor Italy. Italy wins 2-1 in 90
Overall, a fantastic tournament. Only 1 year until the WC. So happy to see Messi finally win last night.
England have played and beaten Croatia, Scotland, Czech, Germany, Ukraine, and Denmark. None of those teams play the style of Italy, and none possess the ground passing speed of the Azurri. But Italy have a real challenge with the injury of left back Spinazzola. Italy's major attacking force in the first five matches was down the left flank - where Spinazzola created all kinds of chances by himself - which allowed Italy to pack attackers in the box because he could handle the wing by himself. In the match against Spain, we saw how much he was missed as Spain just packed in the center and Italy was unable to really create anything past the 75th minute. So I won't be surprised to see Italy allow possession for England and set up counter-attacks with speed up the center of the pitch. The key to the game for Italy will be turning over England in deep positions and starting a counter attack with pace. But the Spinazzola injury can't be understated - and is why I think they looked lost for large stretches against Spain - and might again today. I am surprised that England are playing Kane in a false 9. I understand that is what he does at club level, but he has been largely ineffective in this tournament when picking up the ball in front of the back defensive line and trying to create. The one match where he played a true striker positioning was the Ukraine game and he scored twice and was dominant. Italy is likely to allocate a man to Kane - probably Jorginho - to sit on him in between lines and allow the center backs Bonnuci and Chiellini to stay home and not be drawn to Kane to allow a zig zag back line with gaps for Englands runners up front. If Italy can neutralize Kane, and even better turn him over - it might be a frustrating day for England. For me - the higher Kane is up the pitch when he receives the ball the better it is for England - period. If his first touches are in the final third, and preferably the penalty box - England have a great chance to win the game. England has played a very high defensive line throughout - maybe because of their competition - but if they do it again today surely Italy will be putting through balls in (especially on the break) and it will come down to Kyle Walker and Declan Rice to be the speed that can clean this up. Italy possesses the most speed on the attacking front that England has seen - and these kinds of chances are very high risk high reward. One through ball that creates a one on one is worth a whole half of chances of slower build up play - and I just see this as being one of the keys to the match. Italy wins by springing a few of these chances and converting one or two of them. Overall - I look for England to have most of the possession - but Italy to dominate in high value chances on goal. If Italy turn England over and attack with pace, England will wither over the course of the day. Especially if they have to push to chase the game. England win if they get Kane in to a more traditional striker role with Saka and Sterling doing the attacking down the flanks and using tight combination play to beat the Italian aging CBs (like the Morata Spain goal). Number of chances will be close, but quality of chances will favor Italy. Italy wins 2-1 in 90 Overall, a fantastic tournament. Only 1 year until the WC. So happy to see Messi finally win last night. Gl all - follow me on twitter if you like.
aint that the truth
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Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
England have played and beaten Croatia, Scotland, Czech, Germany, Ukraine, and Denmark. None of those teams play the style of Italy, and none possess the ground passing speed of the Azurri. But Italy have a real challenge with the injury of left back Spinazzola. Italy's major attacking force in the first five matches was down the left flank - where Spinazzola created all kinds of chances by himself - which allowed Italy to pack attackers in the box because he could handle the wing by himself. In the match against Spain, we saw how much he was missed as Spain just packed in the center and Italy was unable to really create anything past the 75th minute. So I won't be surprised to see Italy allow possession for England and set up counter-attacks with speed up the center of the pitch. The key to the game for Italy will be turning over England in deep positions and starting a counter attack with pace. But the Spinazzola injury can't be understated - and is why I think they looked lost for large stretches against Spain - and might again today. I am surprised that England are playing Kane in a false 9. I understand that is what he does at club level, but he has been largely ineffective in this tournament when picking up the ball in front of the back defensive line and trying to create. The one match where he played a true striker positioning was the Ukraine game and he scored twice and was dominant. Italy is likely to allocate a man to Kane - probably Jorginho - to sit on him in between lines and allow the center backs Bonnuci and Chiellini to stay home and not be drawn to Kane to allow a zig zag back line with gaps for Englands runners up front. If Italy can neutralize Kane, and even better turn him over - it might be a frustrating day for England. For me - the higher Kane is up the pitch when he receives the ball the better it is for England - period. If his first touches are in the final third, and preferably the penalty box - England have a great chance to win the game. England has played a very high defensive line throughout - maybe because of their competition - but if they do it again today surely Italy will be putting through balls in (especially on the break) and it will come down to Kyle Walker and Declan Rice to be the speed that can clean this up. Italy possesses the most speed on the attacking front that England has seen - and these kinds of chances are very high risk high reward. One through ball that creates a one on one is worth a whole half of chances of slower build up play - and I just see this as being one of the keys to the match. Italy wins by springing a few of these chances and converting one or two of them. Overall - I look for England to have most of the possession - but Italy to dominate in high value chances on goal. If Italy turn England over and attack with pace, England will wither over the course of the day. Especially if they have to push to chase the game. England win if they get Kane in to a more traditional striker role with Saka and Sterling doing the attacking down the flanks and using tight combination play to beat the Italian aging CBs (like the Morata Spain goal). Number of chances will be close, but quality of chances will favor Italy. Italy wins 2-1 in 90 Overall, a fantastic tournament. Only 1 year until the WC. So happy to see Messi finally win last night. Gl all - follow me on twitter if you like.
Everything I am seeing and hearing on Twitter is that England are going to go with a back 3 (5), bringing in Trippier and sacrificing Saka. The only match England has played this formation was against Germany. While the idea is to bring Italy further up with their fullbacks isolating Chiellini and Bonnuci, it also leaves you exposed if you turn the ball over in the space vacated by the English advancing wide FBs. I don't think this is what I would do as England mgr. Not only a new system to try out in a final, but also total reliance on Shaw and Trippier to cover the whole pitch and be all over the place. Turnovers from England to Italy should tell the story today.
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Everything I am seeing and hearing on Twitter is that England are going to go with a back 3 (5), bringing in Trippier and sacrificing Saka. The only match England has played this formation was against Germany. While the idea is to bring Italy further up with their fullbacks isolating Chiellini and Bonnuci, it also leaves you exposed if you turn the ball over in the space vacated by the English advancing wide FBs. I don't think this is what I would do as England mgr. Not only a new system to try out in a final, but also total reliance on Shaw and Trippier to cover the whole pitch and be all over the place. Turnovers from England to Italy should tell the story today.
Thinking about it even more.... This is definitely a major negative move by Southgate. It seems like a "keep it close and bring subs on late to win it" type of mentality. I dont like it from an England perspective. Insigne is going to run Trippier ragged.
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Thinking about it even more.... This is definitely a major negative move by Southgate. It seems like a "keep it close and bring subs on late to win it" type of mentality. I dont like it from an England perspective. Insigne is going to run Trippier ragged.
Thanks guys. Always lucky to win a shootout, but I feel like if they played that game 10 times, Italy wins in regulation in about 8 of them.
I think the worst thing for England was scoring in the second minute. They basically resigned themselves to winning 1-0, or they weren't going to win. The attacking just went to zero, and it was all hands on deck defending. Ironically - I think this also hurt Italy a bit too because I was counting on a big part of their advantage today being the turnovers and quick transitions - which were basically eliminated by England allowing Italy to have close to 70% possession.
But a great tournament. I personally enjoy these internationals more than any other sporting events, and this one had it all. And only one more year until next summer and WC 2022.
For those who are regulars here in the Covers soccer forum - thanks for your gracious hospitality and I am sure you are glad to see us tourists leave. Carry on!
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Thanks guys. Always lucky to win a shootout, but I feel like if they played that game 10 times, Italy wins in regulation in about 8 of them.
I think the worst thing for England was scoring in the second minute. They basically resigned themselves to winning 1-0, or they weren't going to win. The attacking just went to zero, and it was all hands on deck defending. Ironically - I think this also hurt Italy a bit too because I was counting on a big part of their advantage today being the turnovers and quick transitions - which were basically eliminated by England allowing Italy to have close to 70% possession.
But a great tournament. I personally enjoy these internationals more than any other sporting events, and this one had it all. And only one more year until next summer and WC 2022.
For those who are regulars here in the Covers soccer forum - thanks for your gracious hospitality and I am sure you are glad to see us tourists leave. Carry on!
great work 
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