Euro 2020 / 2021 Knockout Stage (continued from original thread)

Eh, lucky to win a shootout and break even.  Italy barely played the last 40 minutes.

Had Italy to qualify and felt VERY lucky to even have a chance at the end with PK's.. that was a complete and total clinic Spain put on them pretty much throughout and owning the ball 

It did take a bit of luck today…. Or was it more that Spain’s luck finally ran out? 

Good riddance to Spain and their possession style of play.   So damn boring and unproductive most of the time.  Sure gives soccer a bad rap.     I fully expect the Italians to feel more at home in their style of play on Sunday,  even if they end up playing England at Wembley.  

Good luck today

Spain always look like they dominate every game.  This is their style.  The game for me was clearly two different games - the first 80 minutes were close, but Italy was in the match and control.  The last 40 minutes were Italy wanting to go to PKs.  But to be clear - you can look at any Spain match - and think they should have won (similar to Barca) because this is just the way they play.  Don't get me wrong.... I never want to be giving -130 in a PK shootout and I feel very fortunate to have won that.

Updated Results

+12.96 units (59.91 units up, 46.95 units down)

Wednesday:

England / Denmark (London) - Denmark +.5 +120 (90 minutes) (2 to win 2.4), Denmark to advance +230 (2 to win 4.6) - This will be a very close, hard fought match.  Anybody who thinks England is going to roll Denmark better look again.  Denmark are better than England in XG goal differential so far in the tournament - with England arguably having the better schedule and playing at home.  But most importantly - is the style and tactical issues England should have.  Denmark play with a back 3, with 2 of Stryger Larson, Wass, or Maehle playing the wingbacks.  England really only saw this against Germany - and England came out and matched them with a back 3 (the only time in this tournament).  In that match, England were outshot, outpassed, and only took the lead in the 75th minute.  Denmark is better than the Germans, and play this style better than the Germans - but I don't think Southgate will do what he did against Germany - I expect him to still play a back 4 which will present challenges with Denmarks outside in attack.

I also think the unique pressure England face at home might come back to haunt them with a fairly young side and playing against a team that they might not be able to control.  Denmark have been towards the top of the tournament in stats - such as possession and XG differential - they are very comfortable on the ball and are very flexible in the way they attack.  I just see England giving up chances here - and quite possibly not creating very much.  A frustrating day for England....  1-1 in 90 minutes and Denmark win 2-1 in ET.

GL all

Very nice!  Good to see you Kaufee.

Something I forgot to mention in my writeup....

Denmark and England played twice in October of 2020, and England didn't score a goal in those two matches.

Good stuff Van...

1-1 HT.

England found the through ball to speed (Saka and Sterling) in the final ten minutes of the half. Denmark will have to fix this or they will be sliced apart. It is amazing to watch Kanes positioning and see Kane to Sterling outside in crosses instead of vice vrsa. Hard to imagine this is the plan, but this isnt the first time in this tournament Kane is playing more of a false 9 or even winger... so who knows.

64th min....

Isolate on Kane. Im really not sure why England are asking him to play a false 9. For me, this is basically taking him totally out of positions that favor him.

Some post match thoughts....

On the day - England were probably the better side.  Certainly in ET.  But that PK was total horsesh*t.  

But that is often the price to pay when you defend in your own penalty box for so long.  The offense often is rewarded with a soft PK because it is just so hard to defend without even a touch foul for 5+ minutes straight - which is what Denmark did leading up to the call.  So I say soft at best - shouldnt decide a match like this - but Denmark should know better.  They were asking for it.

I am baffled by Harry Kane and how England are using him when Saka and Sterling are in.  Once Saka went out - Kane started playing in normal positions - but they used him as a false 9 for the first 70 minutes which basically neutralized him.  Someone smarter than me is going to have to explain this to me.

Opening line has England PK -120.  Please.  Italy is going to smoke this team.  More to come.....

Why? The interior passing, in small spaces, is sublime! They are Europe’s Brazil. Amazing how they can have so many skilled players. What they lack is the finishing touch and a couple of closers/killers. If they had that, they would be unstoppable. Italy got lucky. For most of the game, they looked like my eight year old son trying to take the ball away from me. 

Hey BB!!!

Spain is always lacking closers / killers.  So is Barca even though they both have great players up front.  So is it the system that doesnt allow strikers to be strikers? Is there the mentality of pass the ball in to the net after a dozen tight passing combinations at the expense of giving strikers more traditional space to operate? I think that has to be considered instead of just blaming Morata or whoever is up there.

Good points! I don’t necessarily disagree. But then why does the pinpoint passing, and multiple touches, not prevent Brazil from putty the ball in the net? What’s the secret recipe or balance? 

@begginerboy

Van raises some great points which basically mirrors my thoughts , too.  I get the feeling Spain may be hanging on to a system that  no longer suits their current crop of players as well as it could.  The days of Iniesta , David Villa , Xavi , et al are long gone that excelled at the "tiki taka" style of soccer.  I'm glad the Italians prevailed,  and agree w Van that they should easily take care of the Brits on Sunday.  Italy should look like a completely different team on Sunday,  and that's a good thing.

BTW, Brazil has way more athleticism and creativity to their game than the Spaniards could ever dream of.  They are two dissimilar teams in both style and players. 

I should have clarified that Spain had better striking ability AND their tiki taka style of play w Iniesta, Xavi, Villa, etc.

@begginerboy

 Agree—difference is the 2010 Spain squad had a class striker with Villa...just couldn’t finish after all of the good playmaking! 

Good defensive teams packed with 5 at the back he is ineffective playing higher up no point, besides Mount needs more technical support with the two holding midfielders not having the same capabilities to unlock the opposition.

They got to the finals playing this way, so you can’t argue with the results. I think he is equally good in both roles but maybe this is what his team needs at the moment: a facilitator more than a striker/closer. 

I'm hung up on the penalty that cost Denmark the game. Let that call go to VAR if necessary, but the ref has to swallow his whistle there. Does England get that call without their fans berating the officials for 100 minutes? I don't think so. Don't get me wrong, England looked the better side. But, they didn't need to be gifted a goal and I worry they'll get another absurd call in the Final. 

Homefield is my main concern here. I feel Italy is the stronger side with nothing to lose. 

Vanzack, looking forward to your thoughts. 

If anything, all the scrutiny over the blown call and lasers in the face of Denmark goalkeeper and multiple balls on the pitch when the penalty occurred will level out the playing field. I don’t think England getting calls will cost Italy the game. The players will decide this one. 

@begginerboy

 Good points bb! Cheers! 

It's gonna be fully dramatic either way