Posted:
#51
Well done vanzack. Italy is not only very good but very smart. 
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Euro 2020 / 2021 Knockout Stage (continued from original thread)
Posted:
#54
Updated Results
+5.36 units (50.31 units up, 44.95 units down)
Good day yesterday, lets keep this rolling.... 
Saturday:
Denmark / Czech Republic (Baku) - Denmark to win in 90 +120 (3 to win 3.6) - Denmark play a very similar style to what the Netherlands did when they unsuccessfully went up against the Czechs just a few days ago. That has me a bit worried - but if you take the country off of the jersey it has been Denmark who has far outperformed the Dutch at this tournament - and provide a much bigger challenge for the Czechs. These two teams have opposite ends of the spectrum in terms of XG variance - the Czechs benefitting from some weird goals (and a PK) while the Danes have really underperformed against their stats. Wass and Mahle are going to be a major factor in this match doing what the Danish wingbacks have done all tournament - create chances up front better than almost any team in the tournament. Too much overall pressure on the Danes - and although the Czechs have far outperformed my pre-tournament predictions for them - I am going back to my pre-tournament read here. Denmark 3-1 in 90
England / Ukraine (Rome) - England -1 -130 (5.2 to win 4) - Ukraine don't deserve to be in the final 8. They have outscored their performances in every single match they have played against the Dutch, N Macedonia, Austria, and Sweden. Their defense can be non-existent and all over the place, leaving spaces for a Swedish side who just really didn't know how to take advantage, and against Austria they were just outclassed and should have lost worse than they did. England have only scored 4 goals in 4 matches (2 of them in the last 15 minutes against Germany), so that was my initial worry in giving a goal here - but I just can't see any other outcome in this match than England dominating possession and once the first goal is scored - Ukraine will push which will finally give England the space they need to work with on attack. Harry Kane won't need to track back 20 yards behind the defensive back line to pick the ball up in this one - he should be able to play his normal positioning and I expect him to score at least one today. This one becomes a snowball. England 3-0
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1
good picks
Trap game for England. Everyone thinking England will breeze to Semis. Could be getting into players heads. They could be thinking ahead to Wembley. All the pressure is on Eng. I think they’ll win but closer than most think. Maybe they win it in 90th minute or extra time.
Posted:
#65
Updated Results
+12.96 units (57.91 units up, 44.95 units down)
Tuesday:
Italy / Spain (London) - Italy +155 (90 minutes) (2 units to win 3.1), Italy to advance -130 (2.6 to win 2) - I expect both of these lines to get better for Italy in the hours before kickoff.
This is an interesting clash of styles between the two teams left in the tournament with the most possession, and the first and third overall (1. Spain, 3. Italy). Spain need to have the ball to play their style, but I do think they will have issues in this one - they certainly won't maintain their 73% possession stat coming in - and this could frustrate and limit the chances they create. Italy attacked the defense of Belgium with speed, and I think you will see the identical situation here against the Spaniards. Spinazzolas injury is a big one - to a defense that is also aging and slow but has seen the style of play the Spaniards bring over and over. There is a blueprint to beat the Spanish style of play - and it works - you just need the athletes to pull it off.
Italy's defense will give up the wings, and bunch in the center - and probably play deep - but I will put my money on the side that has allowed 1 goal in what seems like a decade to handle a very one dimensional offense. Chiesa was the spark against the Belgians and I hope we see him again in this one. Italy just has too many ways to beat Spain, and I don't think this one will be as close as most people think - a very well controlled comfortable victory for Italy 2-0.
Wednesday:
England / Denmark (London) - Denmark +.5 +120 (90 minutes) (2 to win 2.4), Denmark to advance +230 (2 to win 4.6) - This will be a very close, hard fought match. Anybody who thinks England is going to roll Denmark better look again. Denmark are better than England in XG goal differential so far in the tournament - with England arguably having the better schedule and playing at home. But most importantly - is the style and tactical issues England should have. Denmark play with a back 3, with 2 of Stryger Larson, Wass, or Maehle playing the wingbacks. England really only saw this against Germany - and England came out and matched them with a back 3 (the only time in this tournament). In that match, England were outshot, outpassed, and only took the lead in the 75th minute. Denmark is better than the Germans, and play this style better than the Germans - but I don't think Southgate will do what he did against Germany - I expect him to still play a back 4 which will present challenges with Denmarks outside in attack.
I also think the unique pressure England face at home might come back to haunt them with a fairly young side and playing against a team that they might not be able to control. Denmark have been towards the top of the tournament in stats - such as possession and XG differential - they are very comfortable on the ball and are very flexible in the way they attack. I just see England giving up chances here - and quite possibly not creating very much. A frustrating day for England.... 1-1 in 90 minutes and Denmark win 2-1 in ET.
GL all
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Posted:
#69
Quote Originally Posted by ruffcutter:
Apologize for newbie question but my book has italy to advance -140 and Italy pick -130 what is the difference between advance and pick? Does pick lose if it goes to penalty kicks?
pick is for 90 mins of play - if you choose PK the match is graded after 90 +stoppage/injury time. Your PK bet pushes. In Over Time if Italy wins or after OT, in a tie, if Italy wins on penalties the "to advance" wager cashes. Hope this makes sense.
Apologize for newbie question but my book has italy to advance -140 and Italy pick -130 what is the difference between advance and pick? Does pick lose if it goes to penalty kicks?
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