THE WAAAAY TOO EARLY 2011 6NATIONS THREAD

My favorite time of year is about here.....6Nations and the stretch in NHL!!!!

Well, let's start it off by trying to figure out who will take the title this year.  England and France off to a quick start on the favorites race.

France $2.85
England $2.85
Ireland $5.05
Wales $7.05
Scotland $13.15
Italy $153.50

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I think England has really put it together this time around and I like MJ's 33 off the bat.  I really think the Red Roses are the cream of the crop in Europe this year, however......................

............their schedule sucks and France will find it a little easier.  That being said, I think Lievremont has bungled his side up into enough confusion that he won't be able to take advantage of it.

The Welsh are the wild card, as they are each and every year.  So full of potential, so full of a possible big letdown.

The Scots, I reckon, will see their best 6Nations in ages.  They will be a force this year and will push their European neighbors to the limit.  Still, I can't see them topping the English or the Tri-Colours for the title.

The Italians.  Well, I admire their fortitude and energy, but they are still not where they need to be.  Stocking their ranks with promising young Kiwi exiles is not exactly a solid blueprint for the future.

So, my initial lean is England at the too damn short price of $2.85.  I am looking forward to a Wilko return to glory and England finally getting it right for once.

That being said, I always barrack the Scots each and every 6Nations, but when I have money in it, all bets are off......erm....well, you know what I mean.

Chime in please!!!!

England have a few injury concerns in the forwards

Who?

I haven't gotten into the grits of the line-ups yet as selection is still a few weeks away.

Tom Croft,Courtney Lawes are in doubt with injuries

Minor players.  Will not affect the English selection nor cohesion.

I think as the days near, I will need convincing off the English for the title.

Early Lines:

England -2 or -3 at Wales

Ireland -12 or -13 at Italy

Scotland +13 or +14 at France

Early Leans:

England minus the points

Ireland minus the points

Scotland plus the points

No team to win the Grand Slam @ 1.70

Realistically England and France are the main contenders for the slam. However France have a brutal draw this season having to play away games to both England and Ireland. England have away games to both Wales and Ireland. I expect both teams to drop at least 1 of those games.

In terms of draw, general observation is that Ireland have easily the best draw. 2 of their away games are against the minnows Scotland and Italy and as mentioned above host both England and France.

Yeah, France's schedule is brutal.  Three away games in-a-row in Rounds 2-4.  France is in a state of disarray though anyhow and I wouldn't back them.

I really think this could be Scotland's breakout year.

No grand slam

Yeah, I like the No Grand Slam bet too.  No true dominant team this year......but England could either be really friggin' good or drop a couple.  If they beat Wales to start, and Ireland isn't as all cracked up to be...........then things could get interesting.

Really liking Ireland -12.5 and Scotland +13.5.

Looking for others' thoughts on those two matches.

Ireland usually plays Italy better in Rome than in Dublin and even though the Irish have some big injuries, the Italians have gone all downhill in the past two years.  I can't see them doing much and O'Gara's boot will add constant pressure along with a bucketload of 3's for the cover.

Scotland is on the rise, their pack has become very dominant, and their defensive play is extremely impressive.  The question is whether or not their backline can fire well enough to have them gain points.  France, on the other hand, seems to be in disarray and would most likely just like to be competitive in this match and get out with the win, as opposed to playing for a blowout.

Scotland's penalty kicking, with Paterson (most likely he will start), is the finest in the world, and the discipline-lacking French will surely give him a bucketload of shots at the posts.

I think the Scots stay close in the this one, possibly threaten the win, and cover the 13.5.

Your thoughts?

More insight will be available when the starting XV is announced, along with the benchers.  That will give us a better idea of what is available and the gameplan for both sides.

In all honesty England should be shot if they don't win this tournament

Not sure about Ireland -12.5,they have looked average the past year or so,can they find there old form back?

At the moment i don't trust Ireland against anybody

Yeah....lots of injuries for Ireland right now too.  Heaslip, Bowe, and Trimble all out.  Damn't.

Looking at two possible plays here right off the gun.

1) Ireland -12.5 parlayed with Scotland +13.5

OR

2) France $3.50/+250 to Win the Six Nations

England has no value anymore.

Thoughts?

I'll probably wait for the XVs to be announced before pulling the trigger.

Ireland has a boatload of injury trouble in the back.  Kidney's selection in a half-day will finally answer some questions on how the Irish plan to go about winning on Saturday.  They play the Italians better in Rome than in Dublin, historically, so this will strangely work to their advantage.  Nice weather does that, I guess.

If O'Leary gets the call over Stringer, we are looking for a slow-developing gameplan, with no real flair expected until the final 20 minutes.  Could be a nail-biter for the spread.

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Scottish selection yet to be had but should pose no real surprises, as the Scots are in form and have no major injury concerns.

The French, on the other hand, are always a card trick away from a magic show with Lievremont at the helm.  Who the hell knows who he'll take into the opening minute of the match, but it is certain half of France will be insulted and angry at the selection, and probably half of the team itself will be too.

I still think both the Irish and Scots cover their respective numbers.

Any input from any always appreciated.

I also think the -3 on England this Friday is a gift.  I really expect a double-digit win here by the English.  I reckon this line is more out of respect for the Welsh home ground and previous efforts in recent 6N history.

But according to camp reports, Wales is nowhere near the form they use to be and England have amazing found the spirit along the way in the past six months or so.

This could get ugly early.

Still, for some reason, I just can't take the English bet over the Irish or Scots for the opening week, even though if the English win, and I fully expect them to, surely it will be by more than three points.

They are England's first choice lineout jumpers

No Jenkins is a bigger loss for Wales though

Yes, but I don't see England suffering for their loss.  Deacon and Wood will come for those two and they are more than able to get the job done.  Moody is out as well, but again, I don't see any issue or drop in form here.

Jones, Jenkins, Shanklin, and Halfpenny gone for Wales is much worse.

Hape at 12 for England is a cheeky call, but putting Hook at fullback for Wales makes me shake my head and wonder how they plan on best taking advantage of his abilities from that position on the pitch.  I look for the English forwards to run riot over a very blah-looking Welsh pack.  England by double digits if they fire.

England -3 is the call.

Funny how the Ireland line hasn't really moved much, even with all the injuries announced.  -11 in some places now though.  The Italian XV is possibly worse than the last two seasons, which is shocking to say the least.

Scotland look great to stick it to the French this Saturday as well.  The French top eight look strong, but their 9-15 look average for French standards.  As I was only worried about the French backs running up and down the pitch, Scotland plus the points looks even more enticing now.

Good call on England

  Thanks.

2-1 on opening weekend.  England -3 and Scotland +13.5 hit, Ireland -12.5 ridiculous.

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Anybody find the +400/$5.00 on France for the Slam interesting?

France should easily dispose of Wales and Italy.  They play Ireland next weekend and Ireland is still smashed by injuries.  Ireland should have lost to Italy and I don't see them troubling France, even in Dublin.

So, do we basically have a +400 on France for the English game at Twickers in Round Three?  It seems that France have re-found their Grand Slam-winning ways from 2010 again.  Scotland is much improved from previous years, even scored multiple tries (!!!!!!!!!!!!), and yet France won rather comfortably.

England looked decent against Wales, but Wales just isn't very good anymore.  I think the sheen on England's win is clouded by that.

I think the French have a very good shot at beating England at Twickers in Round Three and then running the table.

What do you think?  Am I missing something here?  Something I didn't see?

Opinions please.

I think England is the best team bay far to be honest