Posted:
#1
France has conceded
- 21 pts to Japan
- 19 pts to Canada
- 37 pts to the ABs
France IMO is a lazy side, so even if they put their best 15 on the paddock tonight, they'll do what's necessary to get their bonus pt win, and then bumble through til the 80th minute. Part of the reason I think they'll do this is because they won't fear Tonga (just like the reason I see Japan & Canada having scored many pts as they did is because they didn't fear them either). France doesn't have the pride of NZ or SAF to have it in mind not to concede tries for the sake of ending the game with 'a clean sheet'. On Tonga's side of things, they're playing to finish 3rd in the group, and any sort of bonus point will see them manage that. The route to that bonus pt is most obviously through scoring 4 tries.
Which brings me to the bets I'm considering.
(1) Tonga team total over 13.5 (@NZ TAB - Centrebet has 15.0 priced at a strange 1.01, obv. a mistake)
(2) Tonga tries Over 1.5 (2.35 @NZ TAB)
(3) Match Over 54.5 pts.
Out of left field stat:
In the first 10 games of the tourney, we had 4 losing teams score 20+ pts.
In the last 23 games, we haven't had a single losing team score 20+ pts.
In the games remaining:
- Russia as losers won't score 20+ vs Aussie
- Scotland as losers won't score 20+ vs England
- Georgia as losers won't score 20+ vs Argentina
- Canada as losers won't score 20+ vs the ABs
- Fiji haven't shown enough to suggest as losers they'll score 20+ on the Welsh D (But I admit it's possible since Wales is playing for nothing)
- Italy, in such a crucial match for Ireland, is extremely doubtful to score 20 pts as losers
Since I find it hard to believe there won't be 1 losing team not to score 20+ pts in the final 30 matches of pool play, I think Tonga (given previous French defensive efforts) is the prime candidate to do so, hence their team total Over is very hard to ignore (obv. they could fail to get 20+ pts as a loser, and still easily go over that 13.5 mark). Hard to think they get 20+ pts with 1 try and a ton of penalties, so their team total tries going over 1.5 is also hard to ignore (Japan got 2 against the Frogs, and while Canada only got 1, they spent most of their good field position time kicking either drop goals or penalties, and Tonga won't give a fuck about either after the 1st 20 mins, one would imagine).
I can tell you it's a glorious day on the Kapiti Coast today, and has been for the last 2-3 days, so there's no threat of bad weather that I'm aware of affecting scoring matters at the Cake-tin in Wellington for tonight's game.
- 21 pts to Japan
- 19 pts to Canada
- 37 pts to the ABs
France IMO is a lazy side, so even if they put their best 15 on the paddock tonight, they'll do what's necessary to get their bonus pt win, and then bumble through til the 80th minute. Part of the reason I think they'll do this is because they won't fear Tonga (just like the reason I see Japan & Canada having scored many pts as they did is because they didn't fear them either). France doesn't have the pride of NZ or SAF to have it in mind not to concede tries for the sake of ending the game with 'a clean sheet'. On Tonga's side of things, they're playing to finish 3rd in the group, and any sort of bonus point will see them manage that. The route to that bonus pt is most obviously through scoring 4 tries.
Which brings me to the bets I'm considering.
(1) Tonga team total over 13.5 (@NZ TAB - Centrebet has 15.0 priced at a strange 1.01, obv. a mistake)
(2) Tonga tries Over 1.5 (2.35 @NZ TAB)
(3) Match Over 54.5 pts.
Out of left field stat:
In the first 10 games of the tourney, we had 4 losing teams score 20+ pts.
In the last 23 games, we haven't had a single losing team score 20+ pts.
In the games remaining:
- Russia as losers won't score 20+ vs Aussie
- Scotland as losers won't score 20+ vs England
- Georgia as losers won't score 20+ vs Argentina
- Canada as losers won't score 20+ vs the ABs
- Fiji haven't shown enough to suggest as losers they'll score 20+ on the Welsh D (But I admit it's possible since Wales is playing for nothing)
- Italy, in such a crucial match for Ireland, is extremely doubtful to score 20 pts as losers
Since I find it hard to believe there won't be 1 losing team not to score 20+ pts in the final 30 matches of pool play, I think Tonga (given previous French defensive efforts) is the prime candidate to do so, hence their team total Over is very hard to ignore (obv. they could fail to get 20+ pts as a loser, and still easily go over that 13.5 mark). Hard to think they get 20+ pts with 1 try and a ton of penalties, so their team total tries going over 1.5 is also hard to ignore (Japan got 2 against the Frogs, and while Canada only got 1, they spent most of their good field position time kicking either drop goals or penalties, and Tonga won't give a fuck about either after the 1st 20 mins, one would imagine).
I can tell you it's a glorious day on the Kapiti Coast today, and has been for the last 2-3 days, so there's no threat of bad weather that I'm aware of affecting scoring matters at the Cake-tin in Wellington for tonight's game.
0
Auatralia
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