Posted:
#26
BG, will you be betting during spring training or will you wait until the regular season begins? I sent you an email from my Yahoo address, did you get it?
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2008 MLB Futures Plays
Posted:
#28
Quote Originally Posted by buffettgambler:
I am not sure where you see 20 to 1, but if that price is still attainable it may warrant a play solely for the potential cross sectional arbitrage opportunity it can set up. As far as value is concerned, I think they are fairly priced within a 18-20 to 1 payout. The disparity between them and the best team in the division is commensurate to a lower payout. However, having to bypass 4 teams in which they are not as good as makes this bet not appealing.
The Astros have four sub par pitchers in their rotation with not much upside combined with a sub par bullpen. Their hitting is solid, but still ranks third best in their division. I would prefer betting on a long shot with a lot of young players on their team, as they provide more upward ability to pull off an upset.
Best of luck.
That's very true but with that lineup, they're going to win almost every time Oswalt takes the mound. Also, their RP is above average and they have shown the willingness to spend money to improve. I wouldn't say that they have the 3rd best lineup... maybe the Cubs are better, but Pence, Lee, Berkman, Tejada, and Matsui should be pretty lethal. Also, their young catcher and CF offer a lot of upside.
With that being said, they won't win the Central, but it does stand as a good arbitrage play since there will most likely be a point in the season when they gain a lot of momentum or are in 2nd (or even first) place for awhile, causing the line to probably shift closer to 10/1.
Just my opinion
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I can't stop eating hotdogs in anticipation of the season.
Posted:
#32
most of you guys don't know me cause i'm usually in the game threads, but here is what i got for the season... and nice picks buffett
Baltimore Orioles: under 65.5 games (+110) (2 units to win 2.2) - the Orioles lost Tejada and Bedard, basically their 2 best players. They are also getting older and haven't done much to help a staggering rotation. Despite some notable old timers most of their moves in the offseason were for prospects. Not to mention they are in the same division as the Red Sox, Yankees, and Blue Jays (see below).
Cleveland Indians: over 88.5 games (-135) (4 units to win 3) - still a bit underrated after what they proved to the league last season. They are lost in the hype of the Detroit Tigers and all of their moves in the offseason. Cleveland really didn't make any moves yet and they are virtually returning their entire roster.
Tampa Bay Rays: over 73.5 games (-150) (3 units to win 2) - the recent injury to Scott Kazmir scares me a bit, but its still early in training camp and he should play the majority of the regular season. They Rays dropped the word "Devil" from their name, got new colors and new uniforms. It's practically like a brand new team and they'll look to improve their record along with it. They added a few key components to help out in the starting rotation and bullpen, and really didn't have to give up any important players to do so.
Toronto Blue Jays: over 88.5 games (-110) (5.5 units to win 5) - they finished 83-79 last season despite their stars (Glaus, Wells, Halladay, Burnett, Ryan) being injured at numerous times throughout the season. Now with everyone healthy and some nice additions they should easily win another 6 games. Scott Rolen and David Eckstein are new additions and will provide better defense on the left side of the field, and Rolen replaces Troy Glaus who has left. Not much different in terms of pitching although BJ Ryan will return from his season ending injury that he suffered last year.
Baltimore Orioles: under 65.5 games (+110) (2 units to win 2.2) - the Orioles lost Tejada and Bedard, basically their 2 best players. They are also getting older and haven't done much to help a staggering rotation. Despite some notable old timers most of their moves in the offseason were for prospects. Not to mention they are in the same division as the Red Sox, Yankees, and Blue Jays (see below).
Cleveland Indians: over 88.5 games (-135) (4 units to win 3) - still a bit underrated after what they proved to the league last season. They are lost in the hype of the Detroit Tigers and all of their moves in the offseason. Cleveland really didn't make any moves yet and they are virtually returning their entire roster.
Tampa Bay Rays: over 73.5 games (-150) (3 units to win 2) - the recent injury to Scott Kazmir scares me a bit, but its still early in training camp and he should play the majority of the regular season. They Rays dropped the word "Devil" from their name, got new colors and new uniforms. It's practically like a brand new team and they'll look to improve their record along with it. They added a few key components to help out in the starting rotation and bullpen, and really didn't have to give up any important players to do so.
Toronto Blue Jays: over 88.5 games (-110) (5.5 units to win 5) - they finished 83-79 last season despite their stars (Glaus, Wells, Halladay, Burnett, Ryan) being injured at numerous times throughout the season. Now with everyone healthy and some nice additions they should easily win another 6 games. Scott Rolen and David Eckstein are new additions and will provide better defense on the left side of the field, and Rolen replaces Troy Glaus who has left. Not much different in terms of pitching although BJ Ryan will return from his season ending injury that he suffered last year.
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Welcome Back!!! wish you would post some NFL. your insight is much appreciated
Coming back thie year gambler ????
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