Last2thirst

Taking a break guys.... Aug 1 is around the corner tomorrow ....got family in town for the week in the area and going to be at the beach

I doubt I will keep up with the stats. Its been fun!! Might pop by to throw in a play here and there but I best get onto starting to cap my NCAAF season and in a smaller way, a little bit of NFL too because of the large pools I go into

All the best and good luck  with your plays this week and next ...hope to see you soon

Cincy -1.5 x 2U +105 with the much better pitcher .....up about 7.5 units on the season and about to transfer my base cash soon for a football account I have so I will take a stab and see if I can leave 9.5 UNITS worth inside it or 5.5U....will play till its empty and then might reload come playoff time if its all gone

 I used to be a casual fan and as I am approaching 60 with more time on my hands, I love doing the capping and finding the angles that make sense. I really now don't spend too much time on angles in matchups but more or less just input data to get to know teams, pitchers, tendencies and find things like LEFTHANDERS causing losing streaks for some teams.

I have been a harness racing handicapper for over 40 yrs and grew up with people in the business....drivers and some trainers so I am fascinated by all of the conditions that go into the horse, the driver style, race tactics and weather that all have a factor. 

I was a high level athlete and coach so details are natural for me to find an edge....and I look at research and taking the time to do things for betting angles just like the 3-5 hrs I used to spend 4 days a week getting my body ready for competitions to earn money....on a various of pro beach v-ball circuits (Canada, U.S. and Europe in my later years).

You learn that if you put in the time and practice, you get rewarded and well if you pay attention to detail. 

And truthfully, gambling or mastering golf is way harder to do well in than athletics even if you are already the body and athleticism or a knack for it

Arizona - Tigers Under 8.5 x HALF U  +95

-Pfaadt with under 3.00 era in July over 26 innings

-Mize had a rough one in his last and in general, has been a little rough on the road but ZONA is not hitting....in their last 7 games, ZONA has scored only 8 runs 

-Mize is good at home and Tigers starting to turn around so I see at most a 6 -2/ 7-1 type of game 

-been eyeing fading Zona in the last few and was successful trying once and think I have the right TOTAL tonight to try again

-umpire is 1 - 3 OVER with this total aa well

So...I am 0 - 2 in my fading of what I call PINATA pitchers lately, and I going to dip my toes in the water again...

KC ML  +81 x 1U

-back Seth Lugo to beat an awful Eric Fedde who is 3 - 10 with a 5.22 era 

-Lugo is in high demand on the trade market but KC considering keeping him to take a run at the wild card or Tigers in their division

Under 9.5 Jays- Orioles  x HALF U  and lean Jays....

-when I see a slugfest in a double header, 8x out of 10 the next game is low to medium scoring so I like my chances and the pitcher on the mound for the Jays

Don't really like much else.....think Seattle - Oakland could be high scoring but with a 10.5 number....just does not feel right to take a high number like that despite the fact Severino's fastball is put on a tee to be hit most games

-one pitcher on either team could get hot 

Not loving the lines I am seeing from Vegas ....again!

No interest yet in any games....watching the Jays and man they look tired from their recent run. Apparently after this double header, they are gonna have 3 days off over the next 15 days and they will need it because they look gassed from battling to get to the top of the heap...all teams go through it

Yesterday there were lots of upsets against good pitching and the worm is turning over in baseball as the deadline approaches on Thurs at 6 pm

Awesome @skoonr .... looking forward to the playoff and NCAAF starting up soon also!

The data is there to use and share...people can make their own judgement on it and how to utilize so if its working as a tool, that's great 

Thanks guys 

Westie ....holy heat today!

Value Plays: (playing in parlays with a Swedish soccer OVER 2.5  today that is playing right now and already over)

TB +210 - Rasmussen is their ace going against a minor leaguer trying to make it at the major league level...TB puts pressure on the defense with their style of play and yes they will be motivated playing the Yankees!

Cincy +135 with a future ace on the mound facing a struggling Dodgers team putting out a struggling starter 

-Cincy is on a 4 game win streak and the Dodgers are something like 5 - 15 in their last 20

KC +145 > Atlanta is on a 5 game losing streak and Strider is not the same pitcher he was 

Milwaukee +95 - they have a future ace on the mound who can throw 103 mph fastball!! Cubs with a good one too but Milwaukee loves hitting lefthanders 

-Cubs been scuffling not as bad as the Dodgers, but really only playing .500 baseball the last while

Mets +110 ....facing a pitcher they can hit and have won 7 games in a row and have a rejuvenated Frankie Montas on the mound

UNDER 10.5 Oakland ...drier air in the area so I don't know if the ball will fly out as well and both pitchers tonight have strong history vs their opponents batting lineups....low eras and low HR/RBI numbers 

My official and only Play of the Day today = Texas -1.5 x 1U with DeGrom on the mound vs a pinata 

-Rangers are strong on the road and tend to score runs but I don't anticipate Angels getting too many runs from DeGrom

-Texas also on a 6 game win streak

Monday Streak implications....

Arizona @ Detroit

-Zona on a long UNDER streak and feeble at the plate on the road.... send out Lefty vs Detroit on a 2 game losing streak vs ....and Detroit scuffling as well

Rays @ Yankees

-Rays on a 4 game losing streak ...longest I can remember this season and maybe even last year?

-Yankees scuffling a little too with pitching and defense issues

Dodgers @ Cincy

-never thought I would see the Dodgers on a 4 game UNDER and coincidently, so are the Reds on a 4 gamer....difference being, the Reds are playing really good baseball lately and winning regularly 

Braves @ KC

-Atlanta on 5 game losing and OVER streak...coincidence? 

KC heating up a little ....

Mets @Padres

-Mets are the hottest team in baseball next to the Jays and Brewers in general.....facing a righthander who is rumoured to be on the trading block perhaps > Dylan Cease

Cubs @ Brewers

-gritty pitching matchup to start (UNDER?) and this series will determine who is in 1st place in the division after its over

Nationals @ Houston

-Nationals facing a tough lefty on a losing streak vs lefties  versus a team on a 4 game losing streak and hungry to get back to winning

Texas @ Angels

-hot team with ace on the mound vs a team that will be retooling at the trade deadline so distracted but have played some decent baseball vs tough opponents 

What's wrong with SF? - they have been facing killer teams lately but now face the Pirates > losing streaks have become normal for a team that I thought had great pitching

-Pirates been pretty good in the last 6 games or so

Seattle @Oakland

-two hot teams....hot hitters on both and a hitters/HR ballpark...I expect some big scores in this series!!

UPDATE ON STREAKS FOR MONDAY GAMES:

CONTINUED LOSING STREAK TO LEFTHANDERS has gone 8 -4 in the past 2 weeks and 6 - 0 the past 7 days

Lose vs Lefty starters  (losing streaks extending over > 56% of the time)

Arizona    continues a loss streak vs lefties (8 games and counting) ...WOW!

Tampa   continues a loss streak vs lefties  (5 games and counting) 

Nationals  continues a loss streak vs lefties  (3 games and counting)

San Fran  continues a loss streak vs lefties  (3 games and counting)

Detroit   start loss streak vs lefties  (2 losses and counting)

Houston   start loss streak vs lefties  (2 losses and counting)

UNDER STREAK (wins under 54.5 % now)  *** number of teams on  list increasing

Arizona     5 games *** extended 

Dodgers    4 games 

Cincy        4 games 

Pittsburgh  4 games 

OVER STREAKS  (keeps improving extending streaks! 54.5% now)

Atlanta    5 games*** extended 

WIN STREAKS (reversing now to above  55 %  extending streaks!) 

NY Mets   7 games

Texas       6 games  

Cincy       4 games 

Oakland   4 games 

LOSING STREAKS ( steady > 56% extending streaks )

Atlanta    5 games 

Tampa     4 games 

Houston   4 games 

Over the last week or so.....STREAKS CONTINUING are only 82x and 85x they are broken so we are seeing more competitive series and the success is coming from the matchup

Lefthanders started the past week -10 days at a FADE rate of 1-4 only....meaning, teams that had lost two in a row or more to lefthanded starters were now BEATING lefthanded pitchers.

BUT....then the Arizona D-backs lost 4 in a row to lefthanded pitching this week and there have been two other lefthanders dominating teams that were on losing streaks so the LEFTHANDER beating the team on a losing streak vs them, continues.... it is back and red hot at 7 -4 now and 6 - 0 in the past 6 days alone

Best streak stats coming up next....

Earlier today >  3 - 1 on Totals today ...missed my PINATA play

 Sunday Night Game

NYM x 1U   

NYM U8 x HALF U  PUSH !

NYM U8.5 x 1U     

NYM U9 x 1U  

Sweet day > 5 - 1 - 1 on Totals / 1- 0 Sides 

Going to work to get all data inputted and STREAK updates ready for betting on the next series.....

ahahahaha.....

Forgot to check if there are clouds...omg....that is too funny

Oh...just saw a shot of the sky and its blue 

FUEGO!! >> betting UNDERS .... 3 - 1 on Totals today ...missed my PINATA play...shitttt!! haha

I have left:

NYM x 1U

NYM U8 x HALF U

NYM U8.5 x 1U

NYM U9 x 1U 

Looking for the sweep on UNDERS today....we have shadows in Oracle Park, an ump with a 6.41 game total avg over 17 games and an in form Mets pitcher with an Under 2.00 era pitcher on the year vs a bullpen guy with good stuff and the best bullpen in baseball to have his back

-did I mention a cold knockdown wind blowing out to centrefield?

Like my chances, but this is baseball and anything can happen

Not bad on this Seattle number..... good ole RAMOS behind the plate!

One more total play >> RAMOS is umpire for LAA-Seattle and Gilbert has been smoking hot in warm months on the mound and Hendricks is a ground ball pitcher

- RAMOS with 6.41 game total over 17 games 

- because its warm, I am not going over board on this 

x HALF U +100 UNDER 8.5 runs 

-------------------------------------------

Update on Mets umpire is Blakney > he has a high 7's runs per game total which is good

-totals of 9 are only 1-3 OVER

If you took Under 9 = 1.57  x 1 U

Under 8.5 = 1.74  << +74 is decent for a bigger bet so x 1 U 

Under 8 = 1.90 or +90   << riskier but do-able and already have HALF U

HERE IS ANOTHER REASON FOR MY UPGRADE IN UNITS:

Oracle is famous for the shadow effect messing up hitters in late afternoon so I did some research and AI found this:

"Oracle Park's design, like many ballparks, aims to minimize the sun's glare during the game. However, the sun's position in the sky during late July afternoons can still cause shadows to move across the field, potentially affecting the batter's ability to see the ball clearly. "

Taking a gamble this enhances my chances along with the umpire assignment but no guarantees!

PINATA alert:

OVER 10 runs in Boston with wind blowing out to green monster >  Dustin May - Walker Buehler pitchers 

x 1 U

Corona chilling alert (UNDERS):

UNDER 7.5  Skenes -Gallen x HALF U ....they may cut this one short due to weather after 5 innings also.....

UNDER 7.5 Woodruff-Perez x 1 U ...last game Woodruff started, I was curious why his game had a 6.5 total and then he gets a shutout..... Perez is a decent pitcher with killer day game numbers that are low and in July in general

-two teams playing well so expect a grinder

My Plays of the Day instantly:

 - I always eye the Sunday night game to see who is playing and pitching matchup

-UNDERS rule the day most of the time and Senga on the hill fits that mold and this new pitcher acquired by SF might be a gem as well 

-I checked to see how many HRs have been hit so far in the series and it is only 1HR for 1RBI, despite high winds going to centrefield and tonight at 20 mph BUT...as a former golfer, I know that when you hit into a tail wind ....the higher you go sometimes the faster it falls at the end so exit velocity off the bat will matter here to prevent this so most balls hit out to the fences tonight would probably be a HR in most parks to counter the 'knock down wind effect' of such a fast wind sinking down from the sky and shooting across the plane of the earth..... balls hit into the gap however at a low trajectory will carry to the wall and quicker as well so outfielders better recognize quicker

Long story short, once I find out the umpire, I will adjust my UNDER units bet (perhaps increase) but here are my two plays so far on tonight's matchup:

Mets ML +83 x 1U to complete sweep 

Under 8 +90 x HALF U

-Mets dominating and have a strong pitcher on the mound > if I see the right umpire for this situation, I will up my UNDER 8 to +1.5 U or 2U 

Haven't looked at other games as I am into doing my data first ....

3 - 1 and nice profits.... stats are slow to update, sorry. Haven't been feeling well today and sleeping a lot

Nice to see the JAYS win and keep that edge that they have. Its really good baseball to watch and I seriously through Tarik was going to drag his other Tigers teammates across the finish line to help them overcome their 2- 13 stretch, now 2-14

Brewers and Jays ahead of the pack now....and both playing HUNGRY baseball with their pitching and hitting lineups

- scary thing about the Jays....they have had their Gold Glove second baseman out a long time

- they have had Anthony Santander a key slugger/hit machine out also for most of the season

- and ridiculous centerfielder Dalton Varsho out and he drives the ball too......but it hasn't mattered as 4 key bench players who are young and talented have fit in and hit the ball well and haven't been easy outs whatsoever and contributing on defense as well

-their bullpen is strong and talk of adding 2 arms 

Hot teams:

1. Toronto 8 - 2

2. Miami   8 - 2 

3. Texas   8 - 2

Cold teams:

1. Detroit   1 - 9

2. San Fran  3 - 7

Atlanta  3 - 7

Tampa   3 -7

NY Yankees  3 - 7

Baltimore  3- 7

While I work on update my stats, I do have 2 plays I love today after digging into them last night....update on STREAKS stats later.. but in the meantime:

 Yankees-Phillies UNDER 9.5 x HALF U

-Stroman has phenomenal stats especially preventing extra bases with the Phillies for over 100 ABs

-Phillies hitters/sluggers in a zone lately so a pure groundball pitcher like Stroman is what the Yanks need

-Yankees have hit Suarez occasionally well but I fully expect him to have his big game/everyone in America is watching kind of stuff today

Cincy Reds ML x 1U +76   (0.76 gain per $1 bet )

parlay:  Jays +1.5 runs +75 with Orioles ML  +38 x HALF U

(Rockies are putrid vs lefties and Trevor Rogers is a good one!)

-Jays are better than Tigers and want to keep winning....they have a habit in this stretch of 36-14 that they are on to taking down alpha pitchers for 3-5 runs and then shredding their bullpen

-Gausman outpitched Max Fried for the 2nd he lost to Jays and Yanks got blown away because Jays lineup 1-9 just keep grinding on you with patience at the plate and fantastic baserunning 

FULL RESPECT for SKUBAL but Jays should get 2-3 runs and then shred a Tigers bullpen that they have scorched over 2 games now ....

Under CLEV-KC 9 runs x HALF U 

-check out Williams record and stats vs KC ....wow

-Wacha's are good vs CLEV

-I lean Guardians but KC is starting to put the hammer down in the second half here and no idea if Clev is wanting to chase Detroit or a wildcard

KC with Bubic in the second game I like too and might play later .....Clev been terrible vs lefties lately

-see value in Merrill Kelly and Zona +74 but have enough plays 

-check the weather in Seattle/LA ...if 75F or higher and wind blowing to outfield, jump on the Over with these two contact pitchers in my opinion

Jays #1 in runs produced since May and have a record of 45 - 22

Dodgers too much hype....Yankees....too much hype ....both have sloppy defense and so so bullpens.

MILWAUKEE

JAYS

CUBS 

ASTROS

--all have the right makeup of defense, timely hitting, bullpen