Last2thirst

So.....I am really like this CONTRARIAN betting and I just might give it a go another week because it has been hugely successful!

RESULTS:

Contrarian picks tonight = 2 - 1   + HALF U

Trend picks = 2 - 0  (+1.5 U) ...played none tonight and won't the rest of the week likely...MAYBE ONE MORE

Contrarian (week)=  8 - 3    CRAZY!! 

Ongoing week record  = 10 - 3

I will continue to provide trends and ONE TREND PICK per day if it screams at me ....otherwise, carry on because this is fun! 

3 Contrarian + 1 TREND most days it is 

Friday night Contrarian plays:

Cleveland ML - +145 x HALF U

-Jays hit lefties well

-Bassitt pitches well vs Clev

Wind blowing out to left in Boston

-Boston scorching the ball at home

Under 9.5 x HALF U

 Under 9.5 x HALF U - Miami-Oakland

-both these teams produce high scores all season long 

FADE them!!

 CONTRARIAN IS MAKING ME 

RESULTS:

Contrarian picks tonight = 2 - 1   + 0.7 U

Trend picks = 2 - 0  (+1.5 U) ...played none tonight and won't the rest of the week likely...MAYBE ONE MORE

Contrarian (week)=  6 - 2

Ongoing week record  = 8 - 2

Great comeback by the Jays who need to get their heads out of their arses !!

WEDNESDAY Contrarian plays:

Red Sox - Jays 

-Jays 2 - 8 in their last 10 games

-unknown pitcher for the Jays and after a strong start in the bullpen, their rankings are plunging and now middle of the pack

JAYS ML x HALF U

Yanks-Orioles

-Yanks with excellent hitting stats and against lefties

-Carrasco with good stats vs Orioles

-Orioles scuffling at the plate 

Baltimore ML x HALF U 

Atlanta vs Colorado 

-first two games when under and an ace on the mound in Chris Sale

OVER 10 x HALF U

May have more later...

RESULTS This week:

Trend = 2 - 0  (+1.5 U)

Contrarian =  4 - 1

Good week  = 6 - 1

Contrarian Results Tuesday:

Go OVER JAYS 7.5 x HALF U  

OVER YANKEES LEAN if contrarian ...no play due to number  

Kansas City +130 ML x HALF U for me going contrarian!  

Taking UNDER Cleveland 8.5 x HALF U  

UNDER 8.5 Mets x HALF U   

 I love TEXAS UNDERS so playing Texas OVER  8.5 x HALF U (contrarian all week)  

Trending 4 - 0 contrarian  ...lots of time for it to bite me!

Some of those might be late...forgot to send...had those ready in the afternoon

I always want an odd number when I do baseball picks so since the Yankees LEAN is not official.... I love TEXAS UNDERS so playing Texas OVER  8.5 x HALF U (contrarian all week)

Nice win last night....two in a row using trends, but I want to go CONTRARIAN this week to the end of Sunday night:

Red Sox /Jays Under likely due to how hitters hardly hit these two pitchers (both are hit way under .200 against)

-games in dome have trended under and Jays have an exceptional defense

-Jays have controlled Boston so far but look for a pissed off Red Sox team to win....therefore I lean Jays haha

Go OVER JAYS 7.5 x HALF U

Strong wind blowing out in Baltimore .... Gibson has a .129 BA vs Yankees and Rodon gets hit for over .300 by Baltimore

-Baltimore hits .178 vs lefties and .178 at night 

-STRONG LEAN TO UNDER despite strong wind blowing out

-Yanks have only gone OVER 9.5 runs in last 2 of 8 games 

-Baltimore have gone OVER 9.5 runs in last 2 of 8 games......game leans UNDER

OVER YANKEES LEAN if contrarian ...no play due to number

KC - Tampa 

-KC not good on the road hitting .199 away and .195 at night

-Tampa with 5 wins in a row

-Taj Bradley with high era from one bad outing but has no hit KC in 19 ABs career

This one screams take TAMPA 

Kansas City +130 ML x HALF U for me going contrarian!

Twins - Cleveland 

-rainout early possible but should get game in after 2-3 hr delay

-wind blowing out to dead centre later if starting at 9pm

-two high era pitchers with low ABs vs opponents 

Total is 8.5 runs and so OVER likely ...... 

Taking UNDER Cleveland 8.5 x HALF U 

Strong wind blowing out in Mets game 

-Peterson gets hit hard by Zona....ERod has had success with Mets

UNDER 8.5 Mets x HALF U

Monday night:

R1 - love #1 and I think Young will try to move this horse after the gate and drive car pull away.....I can see this horse not on the lead but in the TOP 4 off the gate and then a backstretch brush to the top

Figures as well > 4510

Maybe > 29

R2 - 2347810 >  all pretty close 

Upset: #10 with Shayne Barrington training and won 4 of 6 down at Hoosier last year

R3 - 5 << can make a strong case to KEY #5 for sure and just do an exactor back up 2 / 5 bigger and all other horses / 5 for smaller....there always is a case for a break by a horse  so don't go nuts on a big PICK5 with keying a trotter!

R4 - 1578 are very logic

Maybe: 69 with good drivers and racing luck

R5 - 9 should dominate if the horse stays flat > but could break so add 56

Nice ticket with 2 KEYS and covering all bases in other races:  1 / 23478 / 5 / 156789 / 569  > costs $18 and $60 cent PICK3  1 /10 / 5   and  = $0.60   1 / 6 horses with All = $8.40

Second P5 ticket > 1245 / 23478 / 5 / 6 horses / 9  > costs $24 and you have #1 in race one on 2 tickets

Total Cost = $51

One non-contrarian game today and tomorrow I will start....will mention who I love and why....then pick opposite until Sunday is OVER and will see how I do

Oakland-Texas Under 9  x 1U

-Oakland has gone OVER this number 12 out of 28 games and tied that total 2x

-Texas has gone OVER this number 5 out of 28 games ...and tied it never

I don't expect Texas to all of a sudden to become mashers with a team avg of .215 so far and less vs lefties

Oakland, they are legit hitters in their temporary ballpark so that is why the TOTALS are high....games in Texas tend to be 8 or less total run totals 

KEEPING STREAKS ALIVE >  consider only games  streaks of 3 - 6 games (cap) in a row whether using TOTAL or RESULT for my selections

=====================================

ALL GAMES IN THE SEASON ARE RECORDED UNDER THE FOLLOWING CRITERIA: 

- UPDATED NOW TO Sat April 28

a.  Over Streaks of 3 - 6 games in a row >   57 - 54 (season)  = 51.4%  (drop of  2.4 %)  

b.  Under Streaks of 3 - 6 games in a row >   103 - 79 (season)  = 56.6%  (increase almost  1%) 

=======================================

c. Win Streaks of 3 to 6 games >   95 - 69 (season)  = 57.8%  (increase 1% ) 

d. Losing Streaks of 3 - 6 games  >  92 - 75 (season)  = 55.1%  (drop of 1%)  

e. Losing streak vs a  Leftie 3 games or more >  =  28 - 20 =  58.3%  (rise of almost 1%)

Cubs

Marlins

Blue Jays  ....are an exception > all hit OVER .278 vs lefties

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Strong/Weak Hitting Teams Situationally:

Excellent at Home:

St. Louis    .295

Atlanta      .289  / weak on the road .200

Weakest Hitting Situations:  

Colorado + Minnesota away games > .180 - .189

Baltimore vs lefties  >  .178   and 3 teams at .190 - .199 > Twins, White Sox, Angels

White Sox  at home   >  .202

Day games  >  Pittsburgh  .186  and  Texas  .197

Night games  >  Baltimore  .178  and  Kansas City  .195

Might have a play for later games based on these stats....but next week I might try CONTRARIAN bets for the whole weak and see how we do....

If you make it to RACE #5 >>> AND IT PAYING WELL....PUT win money MOST on #8  and then put half the amount on #8 onto #1 with Doug McNair and a sneaky trainer that has a small barn but always has his horses ready 

Very windy tonight - Mohawk:

-avoid outside horses unless they are blazers because they get a push from the NW wind in the first turn 

-closers who are very fast in last half could surprise so pick fastest backhalf horse 

-front speed will dictate getting into top 5 positions off the gate and by the backstretch

Race 1 - very logical that 24567 could win in that group in P5

-#7 has been racing weaker horses in my opinion

-#9 is a blazer who likes to lead and do not be surprised if the flies off the gate and gets a good position

Trie these triactor and Superfecta tickets. I just did: 

Bet
Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 TRI 4-6 / 2 / 1,4-7   $2.40

Bet
Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 TRI 4-6 / 2 / 1,4-7   $2.40

Bet
Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 SFC 4-6 / 4-7/ 4-7 / 1-3,9   $14.40

Bet
Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.20 TRI 4-6 / 4-7 / 9   $1.80
Bet
Woodbine Stbd, Race 1, $0.60 TRI 4-6 / 4-7 / 2   $5.40

Race 2 -  take 2345 because they all can leave and get position in a 5 horse race (not one horse stands above all)

Race 3 - extremely tactical race in this one.....whomever can get to the lead or the 3-4 positions has a shot but if it is #9 or #10, they would best be advised to get to the lead and not use their horse until the lane where they could catch battling horses by staying on the rail

#3 - KEY potential because it can leave fast and close well in excellent last Qs

#5 - it can leave and get position and has some of the fastest back halves

#7 - same as above but it may not get to the top 4 as there  are a lot of aggressive drivers in this one

I think you take 3 and 5 with two of the best TROT drivers with best racing form to win in this wind......and you take 17910 in a PICK3 either starting this race or starting in RACE #1

Race 4 - lots of horse that close or run flat lines > speed with and take 258 ... do NOT like Respect Our Flag with strong wind but if there is a speed battle, this horse is fit enough to pick them off!

STORMALONG #2 facing his easiest field yet! << might KEY this horse on one ticket ....was ready to fire last week but a horse breaking and causing interference screwed Doug McNair's momentum! Jodi Jameson is Mr. Saturday night and I am seriously thinking of wheeling him to win in Race 3 and this race in #4 and then doing a small DOUBLE between them

Race 5 - love 4 horses here > #4 first time Trevor from Billy Davis which is an excellent driver change ...both similar but Trevor has a strong gas pedal when a horse is live....

#5 - has first time Luc Roy and I know the owner and he knows #7 owner too from my hometown so they may have an arrangement to help each other but logically, with Luc Roy this horse is ready to do 152'

#6 - has raced tougher than all of these and is a goo 4 yr old with an excellent Qualifier

#7 - Paul Davies hands the reigns to best driver on the track after winning in London blazing a 156' .....this horse is ready to do 151-152 with JMAC on only 5 days rest

And Brewers tie it up in the 9th when the closer just had to do his job 

I will be going contrarian soon....maybe next week. Logic in matchup does not matter

I did play Cards runline x HALF U 

Strong lean to Cardinals runline -1.5 +140 .....mulling this one and will be a last minute decision

- Priestner with high walk rate and WHIP despite low era.....this catches up to you when you face an excellent hitting team, especially at home where they are close to .290 avg

-those walks will come back to haunt Milwaukee starter

-Gray can attack the Brewers hitters with a cold win blowing in from centrefield

Parlay > Red Sox Ml and Under +153 x HALF U  

-Hough with strong efforts vs Cleveland lineup and very strong wind blowing in from centre field will mean players will not try to hit a homerun and this means a middle of the pack bullpen will appear even stronger vs messed up swings of hitters trying to hit a knuckleball for contact 

Play of the Day so far..... trifecta negative factors against Twins: Angels ML +115 x 1U

-Twins hit lefties for .154 avg and Kikuchi having a quietly good start to year despite the 0 - 3 record so better pitcher with Angels /has strong stats vs Twins 

-Twins hit for only .190 avg in day games 

-Angels hit best in day games and hit righties much better than lefties

-Twins with a decent bullpen so this total might float under but no play for me when I see better advantage taking Halos

Can always count on the yanks!

Been getting stuck a lot on a HALF RUN over or under my number a lot the past month......Yanks and Guards are stuck on 8 runs now in the 7th inning 

Huge wind to right field blowing out in Yankees game .....

Give me Over Yankees 8.5 x HALF U

Looking into other games