Last2thirst

Snakebit and best I just pick contrarian....baseball is such a grind....I cruise on my picks to the 7-8th inning and then WHAMMO!

Pope's team needs some divine intervention!!

I think I need to make more contrarian bets....but that one was according to Vegas odds so cmon 

POPE'S TEAM +127 x HALF U

-huge wind out to left field in Chicago and Liberatore is on tilt with a 12 era in June ...terrible road numbers and Shane Smith is one of the best homefield  pitchers in baseball if you look at WHIP/ERA 

Double UP Game #2 UNDER 8.5 Braves x 2 U

- Mets on 3 game losing streak and facing a pitcher has completely owned them for 44 ABs

- Peterson is bulldog when needed for the Mets and I expect him to be locked in 

- not crazy warm and no favorable HR wind so I have mulled a few options and this one standso out

Love the Reds....Jays ...and Tigers Under and -1.5. I expect the Yankees to stay UNDER becasue Hendricks has only allowed 1 HR and 10 RBIs vs them over 100+ ABs....his craftiness will have them swinging at bad pitches

Bobrovsky is the best closer - big game goalie in the world and I can see a 5-1  or 6-2 kind of game.....Florida wants to close it out and have last change with their genius coach at home and raucous crowd cheering on 4-5 lines....I don't like Oilers chances here at all

Or take Florida -1.5 goals..... and OVER ....very high chance of one or the other!!....especially if they are pulling goalie with nothing to lose right to the end

STREAK STATS:  (Game #1 of Season - now) - including June 15th games

Best Streak to follow now:

#1 Following a Losing Streak after 2 or more Losses:  = hitting 57.7%  of the time  

#2: Following a Winning Streak after 2 or more Wins in a row: = 57.1%

Fading teams after 2 losses in a row to Lefty Starters:  = 56.9 %

#4  Continuing an Under Streak after 2 or more Unders: = 56.2 %

 REALLY IMPROVING > CONSECUTIVE OVER STREAKS    = 53.5%  (increased by 3% in last while)

UPDATE ON STREAKS FOR MONDAY GAMES:

Lose vs Lefty starters > 2 games in a row  (FADING is winning > 57% of the time)

BRAVES       continues loss streak toward next lefty  >>> LOSE AGAIN to a lefty

ROCKIES      continues loss streak toward next lefty  

PADRES       continues loss streak toward next lefty > lost on Saturday to one

Nationals     **NEW add > lost their 2nd game in a row to a lefty  >>> LOSE AGAIN to lefty 

KC Royals    **NEW add > lost their 2nd game in a row to a lefty >>> LOSE AGAIN to lefty

Streak went 1 - 0 Sunday

UNDER STREAK (wins between 56 - 57%)

Pirates      6 games*** extended  4x 

Boston      4 games*** extended  2x

Ch Cubs    4 games*** extended  2x

Yankees    4 games*** extended  2x

***NEW***

Twins        2 games

Astros       2 games 

Oakland    2 games

KC Royals  2 games

Cleveland  2 games

Seattle      2 games 

WIN STREAKS (winning between 56 - 57 %) 

Houston    5 games*** extended  3x

Boston      5 games*** extended  3x  

Phillies     4 games*** extended  2x

Texas      4 games*** extended  2x

Orioles    3 games*** extended

Miami     3 games*** extended 

Tampa     3 games*** extended

Oakland   3 games*** extended

Seattle    3 games*** extended   

***NEW***

Cubs       2 games

LOSING STREAKS ( now winning over 57%)

Nationals   8 games*** extended  6x

KC Royals   6 games*** extended  4x

White Sox  5 games*** extended  3x

Twins         4 games *** extended  2x

LA Angels  3 games*** extended

Yankees    3 games*** extended

Toronto     3 games*** extended

Cleveland  3 games***extended

***NEW***

Pirates       2 games 

AWFUL day for me....if stayed with just streaks today....would have been crazy money as there were a half of a dozen series sweeps and lots of UNDER streaks extended

Dodgers result still to come...

Wifey and I went to snatch a couple of snazzy Pepsi North American Cup hats last night and watch the first few races as the sun went down.... 35-40 min drive from my house and it was a gorgeous evening

WATCH THE RACE.... Honestly, I think I have seen 32 of the last 34 races and for some reason this one got me completely out of my chair and into it screaming from the top of the stretch the whole way down.....it was a WILD FINISH and 3yr olds had never gone this fast in Canada for 3 Quarters of the race.....watch it. Its a beauty 

Wish I would have stayed but it was the 11th race and I had my lady with me....we had the furthest picnic table along the rail to see the final 1/8 and it was awesome spot 

Zona on a 5 game win streak with their ACE on the mound giving up no runs in the month of June

-conversely, Padres are scuffling on a 3 game losing streak and Pivetta with an 8.00 era in June after doubling his April era in May

ZONA -1.5 x HALF U .... I have to win one of these runlines once in a while? haha

Warm night in LA - Dustin May era is ticking up all season and Harrison can pitch well vs Dodgers.....

Total is 9 >> its about right but I like SF +1.5  x HALF U +80.....they play the Dodgers tough!!

Canning with control issues...shit...sorry to drag others into that one. Lots of game left and fight in the Mets I hope!

Contrarian IRONY >> I turtled on the Rockies +275 line because of SALE becoming pitcher and Rockies lead 1 - 0 

This Jays game is a real treat to watch two spin masters throw the ball..... WHEELER just struck out the side for 2 innings in a row!

Berrios has his A- stuff

PARLAYs:

METS ML and ATLANTA ML +108 x 1 U

-Mets don't want to get swept and Soto rips Baz in lifetime ABs.....

- Baz with a horrid away and day ERA combo

Mets ML and ATLANTA UNDER 9 pays  +211 x HALF U

Mets ML and JAYS UNDER 8.5  @+40 x pays +127 x 1 U

I love taking strong teams preventing sweeps in parlays....lets see if it continues 

Atlanta changed pitcher to SALE so now its lefty vs lefty.....thankfully, I am have not laid this bet

CANCEL COLORADO +1.5 vs Atlanta x HALF U  >> one of these teams will continue their putrid streak vs lefties and since the Rockies only hit around .190 during the day and on the road, I am thinking its gonna be Atlanta extending their win streak now with SALE on the mound rather than a rightie in Holmes

***STILL laying the UNDER 9 though!!

New play > KC UNDER 8.5 x HALF U 

-Cameron on the mound is sick....and A's June hitting numbers are way down from other months

-KC hits the ball very well on days at .275 so I am inclined to take them -1.5 also but they are facing a LEFTY and on a losing streak vs....

Streak advantages?

Braves facing a lefty making his first start of the season  > dare you trust the lefty trend and take ROCKIES?

-Braves only hit .266 in 62 ABs  (over 2 games approx.) with 2HRs and only 5 RBIs

Streak Play HALF U ML Colorado +275  << why not???

Under 9 Runs x HALF U +88

UNDER JAYS 7  x HALF U +100 

-this is going to be a dogfight as Berrrios is hot and has controlled the Phillies bats and Wheeler wants to return the favor of a sweep over Toronto from a week ago and will be razor sharp focused on the task and he is hard to handle vs Jays lifetime

-if Berrios gets hit hard, I still see the Phillies shutting the door like 6 -1 /5 - 1 at worst 

UPDATE ON STREAKS FOR SUNDAY GAMES:

Lose vs Lefty starters > 2 games in a row  (FADING is winning > 57% of the time)

BRAVES       continues loss streak toward next lefty

ROCKIES      continues loss streak toward next lefty  

PADRES       continues loss streak toward next lefty > lost on Saturday to one

Nationals     **NEW add > lost their 2nd game in a row to a lefty  >>> LOSE AGAIN to lefty 

KC Royals    **NEW add > lost their 2nd game in a row to a lefty >>> LOSE AGAIN to lefty

STREAK WENT  2 - 2  Saturday

UNDER STREAK (wins between 56 - 57%)

Pirates      5 games*** extended  3x 

Toronto     4 games*** extended  2x    + ONE PUSH

Boston      3 games*** extended

Ch Cubs    3 games*** extended

Yankees    3 games*** extended

***NEW***

WIN STREAKS (winning between 56 - 57 %) 

Arizona     5 games*** extended  3x

Houston    4 games*** extended  2x

Boston      4 games*** extended  2x  

Atlanta     3 games*** extended 

Phillies     3 games*** extended

Texas      3 games*** extended

***NEW***

Tampa     2 games

Oakland   2 games 

Seattle    2 games 

Orioles    2 games 

Miami     2 games 

LOSING STREAKS ( now winning over 57%)

Nationals   7 games*** extended  5x

KC Royals   5 games*** extended  3x

White Sox    4 games*** extended  2x

Oakland     3 games*** extended 

Padres       3 games*** extended 

Twins        3 games *** extended  

***NEW***

Yankees     2 games 

Toronto      2 games 

Cleveland   2 games

LA Angels   2 games 

Other results:

 Houston ML +90 x HALF U   

DOUBLE UP PLAY #1 - not a lefty streak play but I cannot ignore the difference in batting and pitching ability here that is so glaring  that I have to take >  CUBS -1.5 x 1U +95   

Orioles - Angels > Baltimore on LEFTY losing streak > Taking ANGELS ML  +140 x  HALF U   

Phillies -1.5 x +130 x HALF U    (so many runlines I am losing by 1 run ....oh well)

Money makers..... 

Cubs ML with Phillies ML x HALF U = +127   

Cubs Under 7 with Phillies ML x HALF U = +216   

Phillies UNDER 8.5 with Cubs ML = +160   

BOO YAH....despite some losses on the edge....these parlays more than make up for it and that sweet St. Louis CONTRARIAN win haha

ahhhhh.....saw this score at the Track. 

Brewers ML +83 ??

- Cards on 6 game losing streak

- they are facing a lefty and on a losing streak vs

- Brewers on 2 game win streak 

-Pallante hit for .300 BA lifetime vs Brewers / Quintana the lefthander holding St.Louis to .125 lifetime BA

THIS ONE SCREAMS TAKE BREWERS >>>BUT ...this is my CONTRARIAN PLAY OF THE DAY > Cardinals with all odds stacked against them win ML +100 x HALF U         

I am home now. We got a couple free hats ....hat a bite but now going to watch the rest on my big screen

Later games:

Like UNDER TEXAS 7.5 runs  > one team UNDER streaking and the other tends to be UNDER most games at home

Houston ML +90 x HALF U << taking this with a good pitching matchup and bullpens and tough starter whose team is on a 3 game winning streak 

- I lean UNDER also in a 3- 2 type of game as both teams have strong bullpens

KC facing a LEFTY and a good hitting team. FADE THEM? - I already have too many plays maybe but good price 

Brewers ML +83 ??

- Cards on 6 game losing streak

- they are facing a lefty and on a losing streak vs

- Brewers on 2 game win streak 

-Pallante hit for .300 BA lifetime vs Brewers / Quintana the lefthander holding St.Louis to .125 lifetime BA

THIS ONE SCREAMS TAKE BREWERS >>>BUT ...this is my CONTRARIAN PLAY OF THE DAY > Cardinals with all odds stacked against them win ML +100 x HALF U  

Cool heavy air with 5 mph wind blowing into home plate in Boston.....last night went UNDER

- both pitchers with good numbers in this situation and vs each other .... UNDER 8.5 seems good

FACT: Padres do not hit well on the road when they are in a funk and they are in a funk

-good young pitcher for SD and D-Backs have never faced him....I can see SD manager using his 3rd ranked Bullpen in the middle innings to keep Zona at bay here 

Is 9 runs too many? Should the Padres break out of their losing streak and Zona out of their 4 game win streak? GREAT CONTRARIAN PLAY but I like the UNDER 9 even more.....

Parlay (3x)

Cubs ML with Phillies ML x HALF U = +127

Cubs Under 7 with Phillies ML x HALF U = +216

Phillies UNDER 8.5 with Cubs ML = +160

Sanchez has been dynamite vs Jays and Francis for Toronto will be a pitcher to watch for in the next year or two....he is a freak of a man but pounds the ball into the zone too many times for major leaguers to pick up his patterns and tattoo some of his high pitchers down the heart of the plate ..... he is the ONLY weak link in the Jays lineup and this game might spell his doom to the minors  > hence the UNDER play with cold Jays bats lately

Phillies -1.5 x +130 x HALF U is good value also

I hit a PICK5 last night at Mohawk for $687 costing me $48 so I am a bit betting frisky today. Wife and I are heading up to the track which is 40 minute drive away.... PEPSI NORTH AMERICAN CUP with $1 million on the line for the best 3 yr old standardbred horse (buggy racing) and there are over $2.5 million in purses handed out ....all the best Grand Circuit horses and drivers - trainers out tonight. The  mrs and I are going to have a nice meal and take it all in.....beautiful night tonight and lots of friends around that I grew up with in the industry ....some drivers and trainers 

3 yrs ago tonight, my ole card playing buddy Trevor Henry drove the $1 million winner in that race and our hometown 1 hour away shutdown for a mega party as the horse was trained and raised locally....that was an epic time that I could not get to because the town shut the roads around the area  Trevor has a steer in the race I think again? I am about to cap the card.