L2Thirst Week 4 Musing and Picks

TOP TEAMS

- how do I see this playing out?

- Penn State can finish#1

-Oregon can slide into #1 with overcoming Penn St. and then stay there running the field to a perfect record

-present #1 can retain their position throughout

-Georgia has planted the first flag for #1 team in the SEC so they figure in here at one point if they improve their defense

-Miami might have a window to snatch #1 rank from everyone with a perfect season with Carson Beck

Presently: 

#1 Ohio State > control own destiny

#2 Penn St. @ Ohio St but get Ducks at home who have to navigate time zones over the next 2 weeks to fly to Pennsylvania on the 27th while Nittany Lions get to relax and prepare/ on form I think Oregon is better 

#3 Oregon - hands down best coaches are  Lanning and Smart 

#4 LSU - only team I see who has the defense/QB combo to hang with Big 10 Top 3 

(speed, talent and maybe coaching edge rests in BIG 10 but SEC is close)

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#5 Georgia - the talent/aura/even QB is there but their defense has to get much better

- I don't know if they could beat LSU on a neutral field unless they can control Nussmeier who can be average at times

#6 Miami - if they can keep an undefeated record, Top 4 is assured 

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#7 Tennessee - I think they were the better team vs Georgia

#8 TexasAM  - Marcel Reed might carry his team on his back / Defense gets better, look out!

#9 Texas - Arch has to improve or the play calling (not sure which)

#10 tie Utah - game vs Texas Tech will keep them or their opponent into Top 10

#10 tie  Texas Tech - Offense usually overcomes defense, which they have but their defense is adequate

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Teams that have to push through in their Conference to get into Top 10

#11 - 20 (pick your order)

 Oklahoma, Illinois, Michigan, Indiana, Iowa St, Auburn, Ole Miss, TCU, Alabama, USC 

(one will drop out and Texas Tech or Utah will drop in)

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Top 25 Material /One may shock/push up:

Florida St, Vanderbilt, Missouri, Georgia Tech, California, Minnesota, Tulane, Houston, Nebraska, Memphis, Arizona. Louisville

I have 2 strong picks but have decided to for the moment, to only start with a TEASER. I am using one team that I think can upset on the weekend but it will come down to their defense containing an awesome running game of Utah with their QB and very strong RBs....... maybe the TEASER is the best way to play them?

My two strongest plays are road faves (again!). I got burned last week pretty good with road faves and have a history over the past 10 years of getting sucked in, but have some good wins too. I won't release my SIDE(s) just yet until I chew on it for a bit.

Hopefully, the lines don't get away.

TEASER PLAYs: 7PT - $30 each Group A pay +110 / $20 Group B  pay +200

Key:

A. Keys > Texas Tech +11 with Under Kansas 62.5 with: 

B. Keys > Illinois +11.5  with USC -9 with Miami -0.5 : 

-notes on KEYS: - WVU/Kansas has never gone past 62 without OT (once) in their history and both teams can play defense despite Kansas last game ....they are much better w/ home crowd 

-Texas Tech with the #2 best portal transfer class with a potential NFL Draft corner coming to them, top D-line and top OLB both rated in top 30 best portal transfers and they scooped two top WR talents to add to their collection

-yes, Utah is a buzzsaw run game but who have they faced? Ttech's best part of defense is versus run and Dampier is not a major threat with his arm / TTECH got wiped by Wash St on first triple time zone trip in a while last year to the Cougars but the significance of this game is a chance to win the BIG 12 and stamp a ticket for Playoff consideration later

-Utah likely wins but an upset is conceivable this year!

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-Illinois-Indiana always within 10 pts 

- Miami blew away Florida 41-7 at the Swamp! (yes Florida will play desperate but not win likely)

- Sparty does not have the offense to hang and their defense has started playing average only

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Take those with Key Groups with: 

1. Charlotte  +10.5  < was a candidate to play as a side

2. Michigan +6  < could have played as a side 

3. Maryland +14.5  

4. Oregon St +42 < Ducks have to fly back east after the game so I expect 2nd string to appear in 2nd half 

5. Syracuse +24

6. Army +8 < could easily play as a side because N.Texas gave up 234 yds vs lowly Western Michigan on the road!

Side Play #1 - USC -16 x 1U 

-this should be a  42 - 24 type of game at most (that is being generous for Mich St. as USC defense is decent)

Play #2 Iowa -2.5 x 1U  (taking before it goes up/its about to)

- I see that Iowa has dominated this series on the road or at home and think Rutgers gives up too many yds with the run and I liked what I saw with Patterson explosive runs through the gaps (not sure why they kept him out of UMASS and not on injury report)

-Gronkowski coming around and they let big Hank Brown run a drive for a TD as well - he was recruited by Auburn so they have options here and Gronk likes to run in situational plays

-looks like Rutgers defense is not the same this year

Love both my friend. However will be on the OVER 55.5 USC/MSU instead. Complete track meet imo and that number is at least a TD low.

My two picks I have been waiting on are both road games .....one line dropped and to the other rose

I want Toledo -13.5 but it went to -14.5 > you can shitkick WMU with a balanced attack and that is Toledo to a T

-going to wait on this one

Taking... UNLV -2.5 (Bet365) x 2U ...snatching that good line

- Colandrea is a decent enough QB both passing and running ..... UNLV with some good offensive players to compliment

-can't say the same about Miami Oh and their QB is garbage facing one of the best ball hawking secondaries in college (they have 6 INTs already)

-also, UNVL is ranked #1 in 4th down conversions 

-I do not get this line and Miami Oh defense is not close to being as good as last year but still pretty good but they don't have the athletes on offense to do some damage to UNLV unless they can run through this team all day long?

Only ?? I see is Vegas accounting for the early start time in their line setting and supposed sharps jumping on that?

I was thinking that way too initially if it were better and so I will start doing some parlays with it .....THANKS! 

I always appreciate your opinion 

@Last2thirst

 Likewise! GL this week 

Final Games I am eyeing for intel /line moves:

Illiniois /Indiana > my question is > is 52.5 too many points?

Maryland/Wisconsin > is this line getting too high? Malik W can run or throw....I seem to recall Wisky having issues with such a type of QB ? They also don't appear to have a great run game and Maryland is traditionally strong in the secondary

Is the Army - N.Texas total too low? 

- Army is capable of scoring on this defense 30-40 pts ....last year they went over 40 pts on every team that had a defense rated over 100th and N.Texas is rated 115th in the recent after Week #3 rating 

- I give Army offense a 10 pt regression on last year and say they score 31- 35

- does N.Texas score over 20 here? 100% and most likely as they have scored over 30 every time but this Army defense was stiff vs the run against Kansas St and only allowed 170 yds in the air......lets say they let N.Texas score 4 times minimum would take it to 20 pts easily (2 TDs /2 FGs minimum)

- even take away 15 pts from Army scoring over 40 pts on every weak defense last year...... say they score 24 - 28 pts only and you leave more time on the field for N.Texas offense upping their scoring to 27 - 31 pts  

This still puts the total OVER 50.5 

I teased ARMY but I am thinking the OVER was the better TEASE for sure...and maybe straight up?

Stanford / Virginia -15.5 /49.5 total only ....we know Virginia can score 40+ pts but can but does Stanford have a good defense?

-does Virginia have a good defense? If they allow 17-24 to Stanford, does that mean Vegas thinks Virginia will score less than 35 pts in this game at home?

Apple Bowl - didn't the Cougars do this a couple years ago....go East and get smoked and then they won the Apple Bowl? They had good QBs and I am not sure they have one this year

-Washington with 2 weeks to prepare for this one too

Thanks SAC 

Lots of good stuff in this thread GL Last2Thirst 

Thx. All the best this week Maceo