L2Thirst Week 3

11- 8  SIDES/TOTALS  (losing week#2)

Exotic bets up +$100  on season (losing week#2)

I have a Week #3 Game to leverage right off the bat.......as soon as I saw the TOTAL, I did some checking:

Play #1 - Georgia/Tennessee UNDER 50.5 x 2U  (will add if I see 51 or 51.5 ideally as a key number)

-this game has gone over only once in the 4 yrs Heupel and Smart have squared off (2021 > went Over 55.5 total but that was a strange season)

-2 of 4 yrs saw Georgia score over 30 pts and one year with 27, yet the total has never gone OVER 48 in the past few years while Tennessee got better under Heupel

-Georgia has won every time and covered the spread -20.5/-9.5/-8.5/-7.5  and the lowest winning margin has been 14 pts two times Georgia has won by that number 

STRONG LEAN TO GEORGIA -6.5 - but now reading about O-line issues and their starting TE went down to injury, so I am doubling my UNDER bet instead

- Tennessee #3 rated SP+ defense (an improvement of 1 rank position in SP+ after week #2 SP+ update)

- defense for Georgia rates from #5 to #6th best in SP+ after week 2

Note: I went back and checked Georgia and Tennessee's SP+ in early Nov 2024 when they played last year and this is what I found out

Georgia 7 - 1  > rated 6th offense/ 6th defense

***right now > rated 11th offense / 6th defense

Tennessee 7 - 1 > rated 18th offense / 3rd defense

*** right now, after Week#2 SP+ update > same as last year's game exactly 

I personally think with O-line issues....and Gunner being pressure....Georgia will run the ball more ....I expect Georgia's point total to be in the 20's ....and I don't expect Tennessee to manhandle Georgia offensively

**** TAKING A STAND ON THIS ONE ! - it might be my only play until I find something this good in my opinion

Georgia has covered five straight seasons...The future does not necessarily equal the past, but its something to think about...I like your lean ATS on UGA...

Its screaming UNDER for an early season grudge match too.... Tennessee toughest game until they go to Alabama 5 weeks after and Georgia has 2 weeks after this one to get ready to face Alabama

Heupel will want to keep it close with their defense and not keep them on the field for long stretches of 3 and outs. So, I expect some long drives and not just Nico type slings down the field like they did last year occasionally..... 

Gunnar Watson will be told to keep it simple to go to first or second read if he can at most and then use legs 

Just so I don't get sucked down this UNDER vortex I seem to be into now (Week #1 excluded of course).... time to look for some sides:

Play #2  Central Michigan +27 x HALF U vs Michigan

-they can run the ball well and have two QB's they utilize depending on the situation

- game turned into  a blowout because they subbed their 2nd unit in for 4th Q after playing on the left coast the week before at SJ which they won

-their run defense is decent

-their pass defense is not so Underwood will be used more and he sales a lot of downfield passes over heads or wide of the mark from what I have seen

- CMU is rated slight  better than New Mexico but not offensively....defensively, they are stronger...CMU good enough to beat SJ 16-14 on the road....and SJSU lost only 38-7 to Texas last week....I cannot see Michigan winning by 4 TDs  TAKE POINTS!

Speaking of taking pts....should have snapped up GTECH +6 when I saw it (still might).... that line is coming down right now

Eyeing  7+ further games that look like they have enticing lines:

Gophers @ California

Ohio @ Ohio St

USF @ Miami

TexAM @ ND

Vandy @ S.Carolina

Florida @ LSU

USC @ Purdue

Pitt @ WVU

Back home from dinner and now I see Georgia -4.5??? 

WOW! 

Play #3  Georgia -4.5 x HALF U (will bet more if it goes down to -4 or -3.5)

Aguilar is better than Nico (Vols Nico) or Milton the years before? Discuss amongst yourselves ....Gunnar not a turnover machine like Beck as far as we know and even still, Vols get schooled by Georgia and still the line goes down?? Strange

I see the total is coming down....

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I want to hammer Texas Tech and still might -24.5 (gotta read more) ....I think this one is safe to -26.5?. What do the Beavs have that can hang with Ttech and their defense ratings are improving! This is Beavers first roadie too....and they skip time zones

Beavers defense is now ranked 104th after being rated 84th in SP+ preseason ....Beavers offense drifting down to 84th now

TTECH was 7th best rated Offense and now 3rd 

On watch for now because they travel to Utah after this game so does their coach pull starters in 4th Q? Total might be the play at 61 if I find the 'right intel' I don't think the Beaves can score more than 17-21 > 42 - 17 fits as a score as an UNDER 

If you think Beavs will score over 20 on the road, take the OVER...since there is no evidence TTECH will take it easy on a 100th+ defense because Utah is on deck....over the years with offenses in the Top 10, it was an insta - 40 pts scored at home for Raiders

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I like CMU also but of interest to me is their lack of scoring.  They have scored less than 18 points in all of their last 7 games.  So I like it under and if they do cover this week that could provide opportunities against them if they continue to lack scoring. Especially as favorites.  I suggest you not lose track of this team. 

Adding to my Georgia Stack > -3.5 x 1U 

@Undermyac 

@DTown  

@Spottie  

Texas Tech down to -24 ....lets see if it dips under this and I will buy for my next play

Play #4 - Texas Tech -23.5 x HALF U 

- my gut says this is a stomp BUT maybe the line is coming down because TTECH is travelling the week after to UTAH and the coach may pull his starters in Q4 ....I wouldn't this early in the season, but that might happen

 Upping this now ....down to -23 x HALF U add 

If I see -22.5 ...adding 1 Unit further

I have not seen anyone discuss this one yet except for one or two cappers .....shhhh , its our secret  and the line keeps falling 

I am seeing curveballs from Vegas galore:

1. Vandy has never beaten S.Carolina including last year losing by 3 TD = line comes down !

2. Georgia has never lost to Heupel/Vols in his era the last 4 yrs and the lowest margin of victory was 14 pts  = line cut in half with lots coming on Tennessee

3. GTECH has not beaten Clemson for the last 10 that I can see and the lowest margin of victory for Clemson was 6 pts = line cut in half !

Bizarre is all I can say  ....and you can add TTECH line dropping as well vs a team in freefall who are not a good road team and they are getting beat up going into one of the most hyper offensive fields for the home team year after year.....

3 problems for Texas tech and a few teams in the same category line.  

who did they play so far?  
basically trash 

how do we know how much they improved. 

this game will give a better idea on who they are

Who do they play next? 

Utah:  a high quality conference opponent  both of these teams are ranked in the bottom of the top 25 and the way Utah plays I give Utah the advantage next week. A high lined team with a big line provides lots of room for a look ahead and early season substitutes for game film team analysis.  They gave not been pushed so these big lines are difficult to navigate. 

I have a group of these bets in this category and I assume about a 60% win rate on these. 

Illinois Texas Tech Michigan Auburn Missouri all these have to climb the line.  

Illinois has Indy in Deck

Auburn has Okla next 

Tex Tech has Utah next 

Michigan with Nebraska and Wisconsin next up and Michigan isn’t that high scoring so big numbers are going to be a problem all season. 

Missouri has S Carolina next 

sone of these teams will climb over their lines but in general the books will want these teams to fail.  The question is which ones, and how many succeed.  A person with a keen eye for breaking down A matchup is surely successful, that’s not me so I use the group trust the line and hope for the best.  That’s honest. 

Wahoo likes the game so that’s a good selling point but the early season meanderings has him 0-2. Done if the early season schedules suck.  Arizona Texas Tech USC to name a few more played garbage so far and all they have to do is play pitch and catch.  No resistance. 

we’ll see what happens but I just trust the lines in most cases and let the chips fall where they may.  If they cover do be it the books always keep elevating lines.  Only a few teams a season if any are like Indiana last season a favorite and cover every week. This game isn’t that at -23 or -22.  

This is not an attack on you or the game.  I’m just adding my thoughts.  I do hope you’re successful 

I can answer the 'how do we know they improved' which I am acting on this year Spottie...... using SP+ comparison ratings. I am in the process of updating all teams on their OFF rank improvement and DEF as well

Results on the field, per play, total offense or defense etc is all considered in their SP+ rank

Texas Tech is one of the teams improving their ratings but also highly rated and tend to stomp on teams, not relax at home

Cheers ....thanks for the post and well wishes 

P.S. ....you raise a great point about upcoming games and it was addressed by me in this instance....but have you considered that this is only Game 3 coming up and team offenses and defenses really need 3-4 games to tighten up and be schematically fit in their side of the ball

Hey Spottie...look at post #6 ....I was drooling over Texas Tech on Sunday night when I got home from a night out but I expected the line to move a little....maybe not this much 

I am more than happy to have some others agree with me but as you know, I move to my own tunes, just like you do and the fun sometimes is having others agree on some ringer plays ..... I used to mine for + points in my capping and frankly, it just didn't work for me. Now I look for other edges but I totally respect those that love + points hunting. It really is an art, one that I apply to horse racing, but opposite to what I do in  

Some DATA updates after SP+ Updates after Week#2 SP+ changes :

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/46128861/2025-college-football-sp+-rankings-all-136-fbs-teams

-in my 2024 breakdown of team success/winning record and improving rank correlation for Offense and Defense, what I uncovered was the fact that teams who improved on defense and offense by a combined total rank improvement of 60 ranks.....often ended up with double digit wins

-I also found Offensive improvement carried a team further in winning record but not necessarily into playoffs - those teams needed improvement on both sides or one side strongly with an already strong defense or offense

-improvement on both sides of the ball to the tune of 70+ ranks equated to 11 win season or better if the team was outside of the Top 40

-within the TOP 50 SP+ overall ranks, if a team improved by 30 pts, they had a strong season and were a PLAYOFF candidate or actually made 

**note: Tennessee has the greatest total improvement in OFF/DEF combined in the pre-season Top 20 (improved +14 total)

Overall Top 50 Best improvement in Ranking OFF/DEF combined

1. Pittsburgh +45 

2. UCF         +42  (mostly on defense)

3. Arizona    +35

4. Vanderbilt +33

5. Texas Tech +29

Also improved by OVER 20 ranks > Memphis, Washington, Utah, Minnesota, Kansas, Houston

Will comment on who is falling badly within the Top 50 in next post....

Strong Decliners in Offense/Defense ranks (and likely with early game results: teams in Top 50 SP+)

1. Kansas St    -40

2.  Arizona St  -38

3.  SMU          -34

4. Clemson     -33

5. Baylor        -30

Significant Declines also:  Michigan, Notre Dame, Texas, LSU, Iowa 

*** tread lightly on these for a week or three, unless you get a nice line?

Will spend tomorrow and Thursday breaking down the next 51 -100 rank area and some notable improvements from 101-136th

I comment for information so thank you for responding 

See above post #18 .....those are the teams I will look to FADE if I think the line this week is skewed......and in post #17, those are some teams I am looking for value and now see, I already have pressed on one of them (TEXAS TECH ) 

Being data driven helped me in NCAAB and in a huge way in MLB....just had to put in the work !

Teaser 7 pts - $30 each

Key > Arizona +8.5 with Vanderbilt +12 with:

1. Minnesota +5.5

2. Texas St +21.5

3. Pittsburgh Even

4. Houston +2

5. CMU +34.5

HALF U Teaser > Ole Miss Even with S.Carolina +2 with Texas Tech -16.5

Add to Teasers:

6. Oklahoma - Temple Under 58.5 (7pt tease) - want to play this one straight because Temple has not played anyone but have shown a balanced attack. Sooners MUST get a run game going for Auburn ....they face the #2 run defense in the land after this one and we know Mateer can handle a tough defense throwing on the run and hitting his targets. Its best they still can do this without getting him hurt because trust me, Auburn will stop 1st/2nd down runs and then what? They have film from Michigan game so I feel coach puts in a run game plan which would be ideal to get that going vs Temple

I see a 35-14 /35 - 10 type of game.... 42 - 10 is possible which is why I am pushing up the total with the teaser

7. UCONN -2.5 (7pt tease) - UCONN has shown a high improvement on both sides of the ball in SP+ from preseason rank.....and Delaware has not so this appears to be a mismatch despite the rivalry

8. Arkansas +14 - (7 pt tease) - they tend to give Ole Miss a great game and I like their QB more than Simmons who has Arch's problem (see below) but his size and running is excellent if he needs to use it ....his opponent in this one has better wheels and arm 

-I see Purdue teased to +27.5 with a decent defense and the home crowd helping them keep this within 4 scores ....may come back to this because of USC's traditionally poor road performance with their offense vs their home field

-Iowa St needs to get Becht rolling because they sure have good receivers and a run game....defense is solid and they have a break after this one so I can see them pressing the score button for style points on this one ...... 38 / 45 - 17 ....something like that > tease to -13.5 is decent

-Calzada is hurt at Kentucky and not sure if playing ....EMU jumps up with a surprise once in a while so a tease of 31 pts would be ok ....KY tends to play down to their competition when uninspired by their opponent over the years

Teaser 7pts HALF U > Texas -34.5 who beat up UTEP regularly when they play by 34-55 pts and need to get Arch going and they will....take  with LSU -0.5 who almost never lose at home on a Saturday night with Calif +9.5  showing some improved stats  ....like Minny and their coach but they don't have the QB/RB to bully a good Cal defense

HALF U > same teaser except change California for Tulane +5.5 with some Cajun love in their home building feeling the crowd commemorating 20th anniversary of Katrina which football and it are synonymous so Tulane has the better squad and will not let down the crowd on Saturday

I think my plays and cashflow are set for the weekend...no more bets.... everyone. I need a good week to get the compass straight!

@Last2thirst

@Last2thirst

 Good Luck This Weekend!

GL buddy! I’m debating on that Georgia under as well. I think that is the right side for sure!!