spottie2935

Wake under 53.5

Colo +6

Kan St +1 

UCLA -15.5

UTAH ST +4.5

Alab -20.5

C.Mch +28

S.Alab +25.5

Geo /Tn under 50

Pit/WVA under 57.5

WVA + 7

ULL +27.5

MiaFl -16.5

Ohio U +32.5

W.Mch +28

Vir Tch -7

Cstl Car +7.5 

Fla +9.5

Tx A&M +7.5

S.Car-5.5

Duke +2.5

Texas-41.5

 Oregon St+ 24

Purdue +21.5

Northwestn +28

under NW/Oreg 49

UMASS +35.5

Stanford +13.5  and this line could hit 14

Memphis over 51.5

Akron +10.5

Under 55.5 Iowa St / Ark St …after playing Iowa I expect a sluggish game. 

under 49.5 Geo/Tenn 

under Texas Tech Oregon st 62

Good luck tonight 

@Last2thirst

 Lines matter most to me.  Match ups are secondary.  

@Sacramoni

 Best wishes thx for the compliment 

Against Cincy 

HF and 10 >tppS(W)>1 and season>2005 and tpS(W)<12 and week<11 and (t:wins - o:wins)<2 and n:D and on:line<8 and opS(W)< 12 and streak < 3 and o:ou streak < 4 and opppS(playoffs) < 3 and line > -6 and rest< 13 and o:streak<3 and streak<2 and p:points<20

tpS(W)<8 and p:DL and HD and p:ats margin<5 and p:points<20 and op:ats margin>0 and opS(W)>4 and n:line<=9 and on:line>-8 and total<47 and week<12

On 

Saints 

Titans

PLAY ON :

JAGS

BEARS

SEAHAWKS

BUCS

PANTHERS

AD and date>=20240909 and t:team != Giants and t:team != Lions and t:team != Fortyniners and t:team != Falcons and t:team != Dolphins and t:team != Colts and t:team != Browns and t:team != Broncos and t:team != Steelers and t:team != Patriots and t:team != Titans and t:team != Saints and o:team != Eagles and line < 10

There is a strong lack of parody on these teams right now and that lack if balance is crushing the dogs.  This needs a few weeks line elevation and the new Qbs and young team need time to get it together.  It on the horizon but not here in the moment. 

Lastly and something strongly consider. ALL home favorites are extremely successful right now.  Bear that in mind and be patient until that shows regression.  It’s going to snap but when. 

dating back to week 11 last season and including playoffs look at this 

HF and date>20241115 and total<51 and line>-14

@DogbiteWilliams

 Not better but a lot of experience and I spent a lot of time in the offseason preparing and seeing if any consistency exists.  It does.  Lines and last season matter.  Perception matter too but the dog has to show the ability to score.  

In most cases, off the board teams are Tennessee Cleveland Carolina Raiders Saints.  Off the top of my head I might have missed a few teans.  go look at teams that are not producing points. In this day and age the rules are influencing higher scores so dogs that can produce are not valuable. 

be patient of these crap teams until you see better and more consistent production.  

Maybe one of these teams breaks out and after elevated production they become a favorite against one of my listed avoid teams.  Play the dog in that case if the line is close to or above -7 we then have a possibly overlay situation.

Over rated team and this week is a perfect example are the Chiefs as a home dog.  The book know this team is not the same.  If they were as strong as in the recent past no way they are a home dog.  

They’ll cover this week giving them false credibility going forward.  

Chargers and Broncos also on my list to overlay points this season after a very nice season playing weaker schedules.  When favorites especially at home  playing decent teams fade these teams. LA was outstanding last year and Denver is now 9-0 as a home favorite (depending on the line of course)  

I don’t think it will be a whole season of failing spreads against said teams but I don’t expect a whole nother season of elevation.  
I am expecting inconsistent and line elevation after covers and big wins.  

@DogbiteWilliams

 I try to( but not always the case) to use formulas using mathematical systems 

such as mean mode meridian and range.  Keep bottom winning teams with poor history out of my wagering.  Sometimes I ignore history if the query is  strong.  

go thru a basic query and eliminate the low or high totaled games.  Those high total games are because the opponent has a history of strong scoring 

eliminate low total, our team struggles to score ir the opponent has a decent defense. 

I start with a basic premise of what I’m thinking might work and start going thru the data and eliminating.  Small data queries I support sometime but I prefer the ones with more results 

take a look next week on how teams do in week 3 when their first 2 results are failures then look at 2024 performance wins and losses.  See if previous points matters.  The are all recency results and lines should increase because of mental perception.  

I am with you on the Titans but am very cautious because I feel in the moment I’m not seeing enough offense production.  It’s going to get better but when.  If this week fails too the lines also increase.  Their road lines become extremely valuable because they can play defense and road teams get extra points.  

I don’t really care about matchup as much as failures against lines and looking for overlay games. Situations like scheduling and bye weeks after sucky games or opponent future dog divisional games ahead. 

start with something basic and look for middle winning percent teams that are talented enough to bounce back. 

keep a balanced approach to teams that are not deported in talent that can bounce back after adversi

Which teams barely failed to make the playoffs in 2024 and lost week 1 badly or were favored in week 1 and disappointed.  Which team failed miserably ATS to close 2024 and lost also last week.  Perception is low line increase and they came close to a winning 2924 season.  The beginning of a new season the previous season close matters.  

Find a query that has 2 or 3 qualifying plays so you can group together and try for 2-0 or 1-1 

Make notes of potential plays and also your pkays record.  Go back and look at their previous week score and see if you missed on anything. 

eliminate line clues as I said high and low totals matter to the books valuations.  Look ahead on the middle teams to future games and look ahead spots 

@DogbiteWilliams

 I try to( but not always the case) to use formulas using mathematical systems 

such as mean mode meridian and range.  Keep bottom winning teams with poor history out of my wagering.  Sometimes I ignore history if the query is  strong.  

go thru a basic query and eliminate the low or high totaled games.  Those high total games are because the opponent has a history of strong scoring 

eliminate low total, our team struggles to score ir the opponent has a decent defense. 

I start with a basic premise of what I’m thinking might work and start going thru the data and eliminating.  Small data queries I support sometime but I prefer the ones with more results 

take a look next week on how teams do in week 3 when their first 2 results are failures then look at 2024 performance wins and losses.  See if previous points matters.  The are all recency results and lines should increase because of mental perception.  

I am with you on the Titans but am very cautious because I feel in the moment I’m not seeing enough offense production.  It’s going to get better but when.  If this week fails too the lines also increase.  Their road lines become extremely valuable because they can play defense and road teams get extra points.  

I don’t really care about matchup as much as failures against lines and looking for overlay games. Situations like scheduling and bye weeks after sucky games or opponent future dog divisional games ahead. 

start with something basic and look for middle winning percent teams that are talented enough to bounce back. 

keep a balanced approach to teams that are not deported in talent that can bounce back after adversi

Which teams barely failed to make the playoffs in 2024 and lost week 1 badly or were favored in week 1 and disappointed.  Which team failed miserably ATS to close 2024 and lost also last week.  Perception is low line increase and they came close to a winning 2924 season.  The beginning of a new season the previous season close matters.  

Find a query that has 2 or 3 qualifying plays so you can group together and try for 2-0 or 1-1 

Make notes of potential plays and also your pkays record.  Go back and look at their previous week score and see if you missed on anything. 

eliminate line clues as I said high and low totals matter to the books valuations.  Look ahead on the middle teams to future games and look ahead spots 

Wake under 53.5

Colo +6

Kan St +1 

UCLA -15.5

Mem -4

Alab -20.5

C.Mch +28

S.Alab +25.5

Geo /Tn under 50

Pit/WVA under 57.5

WVA + 7

ULL +27.5

MiaFl -16.5

Ohio U +32.5

W.Mch +28

Vir Tch -7

Cstl Car +7.5 

Fla +9.5

Tx A&M +7.5

S.Car-5.5

Duke +2.5

Texas-41.5

 Oregon St+ 24

Purdue +21.5

Northwestn +28

under NW/Oreg 49

UMASS +35.5

Stanford +13.5  and this line could hit 14

Memphis over 51.5

Akron +10.5

Under 55.5 Iowa St / Ark St …after playing Iowa I expect a sluggish game. 

under 49.5 Geo/Tenn 

Sources: Boston College starting cornerback Syair Torrence will not play against Stanford this week, meaning the Eagles will be down three defensive starters and both starting corners. Torrence is a sophomore who won the starting job in camp. 

The over achieving from 2024 

 AZST BOISE

The over achieving from before 2024 :

Ore St 

Who do I like this week? 

Georgia Southn  home favorite to Fresno big fail now a home favorite to JV St is a big difference and not much line change. 

Stanford  4 road games in a row dating back 2024 now home to BC tgat travels cross country and each week Stanford suck they get additional points until tge bad streak ends.  It ends this week in my opinion. 

Virgina Tech starting off the year playing Vandy and So Carolina ? No thanks.  Playing Old Dom this week won’t be  easy but Old Dom was at Indy +24.5 that value here is long gone.  

UCLA played Utah at only +6 and away favorites at UNLV and lost.  New Mexico isn’t good -14 will be much easier for Nico I’m him. 

Kansas St Ariznobisnt completely back from their bad 2024 yet. Tough test here and no points for a cushion. 

Coastal Car  another team getting extra points after a bad start. E. Car as road favorites since 2011 6-15 ATS and that list of team they faced are lesser or the same than Coastal.  I’ll take my chances on a close battle on 2 similar teams. 

Looks good shakes