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@tahoejoe2 You have the advantage for sure. Personally I don’t like using teasers. In certain circumstances they can be a fine tool though. I bet what I like and I go against the grain so I expect to get dislikes. I personally get cautious if everyone likes what I like. You bring me balance and peace.
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JJWoods | 11 |
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Texans had a great season in 2012 and that was the last great season they had after making the playoffs the previous season. Since 2012 the season after the Texans made they playoffs they are: Have a losing record if 39-58 in seasons after a season in which they made the playoffs. Add to that 37-58-2 ATS in those games. So historically they are not strong enough to maintain a great follow up season after exceeding team potential. A lot of this is due to a more difficult and elevated schedule and the big thing for me is their ownership o ly goes so far in the offseason to improve the roster. With Mixon already hurt we’ll see what transpires before kickoff I week 1.
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JJWoods | 11 |
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The last 2 season the Cardinals average line in away games is the 4th worst in the NFL at +6.2. Cardinals surely should be better but this -6 line is absurd. They have not improved +12 points over their average line. Clearly the Saints are a target that the lines makers know people will not be betting. And clearly the Saints have been very bad to be getting this line. That’s why I mentioned this game. I’m trying to beat a line and I don’t think the Cardinals have improved as much as this line indicates. In my opinion -6 is way past a normal line adjustment. If the Cardinals beat me fine. Saints are who they are but early in the season they are fresh and their age isn’t as much as a factor in a dome stadium in week1. This game in Arizona would be -12 because of the line adjustment for home field advantage. Cardinals will be a target for me when getting points and if they fail here the upcoming game lines should be more advantageous than -6 on the road. |
theclaw | 49 |
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Denver needs LAC and Kc to regress so if tgat happens Denver needs 10 or 11wins to win the division
I have Denver to win the division at a good price but it won’t be easy. It’s about KC and line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. See what transpires. Chargers easy schedule last year balanced them out. Harbaugh is cool when winning but |
best_bets | 13 |
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@Biscuiteater1 Washington should cover in week 2 vs packers. Just because Washington won’t do as well as last season they still are a valuable dog. It’s the favorite lines they will struggle with because they are not complete and still rebuilding into a more powerful and consistent team. Facing better teams this season will cover as dogs. Then I hope are elevated too far as very easily faded as favorites.
All in all I hope the commanders are meandering big time lots of volatility. |
JJWoods | 11 |
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I don’t know what info you’re exactly trying to extract but I was familiar with stat fox sheets. I now use killer sport and spent a lot of time learning the language that gets me the data, history and info I desire. Vegas sports books back in the day used to have all kinds or news papers or letters with advertisements in them. Not sure if that still is the case
maybe try Vegas insider, wagertalk all these handicapper related sites? I assume youre going to have to adapt and move on. You’ll find something. |
thepostman | 2 |
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@Boisestateand8 I appreciate your reply I’m just saying early on there is nothing special about a team coming off a season that they were 2-6 on the road and lost to the Panthers when laying -5. I don’t vount out the Cardinals and I saw on the roster moves you mentioned but improving team are now best as favorites Cardinals will be a great dog and if this is a loss in week 1 I will love their perceived value even more. To the Claw:
Thank you best wishes this season! You’re on point.
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theclaw | 49 |
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Soph Slump:
Bo Nix Rookie of the year Cam Ward
week1 -matchup
Bo Nix vs. Cam Ward
Tony Pollard had over 1000 yards last season when defenses could tighten the box and focus on stopping the run in an unbalanced offense and putrid passing game. They Titans defense gave up the 2nd fewest yards last season but were a near the bottom in points allowed. Well part of that was because the offense couldn’t control the ball and also made bad mistakes and turnovers. Cam Ward and company can change tgat narrative and the Titans are not being appreciated at all yet. Titans 7-23 ATS the last 30 games. Even through out the distaste this team was they were only double digit dogs 2 times the last 2 years! That is a statement that they have some talent. I predict the Titan will be amongst the top ATS teams this season. As far as the week 1 matchup with the Broncos. Broncos have caught the attention of quite a few this season and it’s very possible they could step back. (Speaking mostly ATS, I feel the AFC West is over appreciated) In my opinion, If one is not playing the Titans in week 1, they might be missing out on a nice line and very possible upset opportunity. Commanders and Broncos will be tested and on upset alert in week one. The last upset game I’m looking at with my spyglass is the Saints. The Saints started so hot in the first 2 weeks in 2024!!!! Did you know in week 3 the Saints were favorites against the Super Bowl champ Eagles! That’s right !!!!
The Cards are 1-6 as a road favorite and a dog with A line of <6 . Within this they were -5 to Carolina last season in the road and lost that game. The saints after week 2 last year is a problem. 3-12 record after that and thus the +6 line here
I target week one games in which the survivor players could possibly make an error and in my opinion all these teams qualify
I will be making a 3 team point spread and money line parlay on these teams and also include the Seahawks in a small amount of wagers as well. SF 49ers completely messed up their roster in the offseason. After they lost to the Chiefs in the superbowl a few seasons back they have been plain as water. There you go Dr. Woods m, my best thoughts
Bonus selection Thursday night opener
Eagles Zvowboys under 46.5 Dallas made some off season roster movers to directly slow Philly dien. Also per normal after a Super Bowl win Philly had to let go of some highly pain highly skilled talent. You can look up the roster changes on your own. 46.5 point total says a lot after what Philly did in the past season. 21-17 24-20 Eagle win something like that.
Saints Giants Titans Seahawks week 1 winners. |
JJWoods | 11 |
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Off topic
If I can ask you as I saw you around last year. What’s your style. What are you best at? Are you planning on posting a thread all season? Getting to know others on here is important so we can become more of a team? There are so many games and each week happens so fast. I need to use my time wisely and that starts now. The season is getting very close.
Best wishes in the season I really hope you succeed and post your weekly thoughts
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Boa33 | 8 |
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Tech is a very interesting story certainly a team to watch.
I don’t know squat about them at the moment. The only think I am aware of is their payroll. As far as my preseason feeling? As I said I can’t get to specific yet but sometimes teams that have invest so much might take a few weeks or even underperform in the first season. I could be a hot or not situation but I need to dig deeper on them to make a more informed and confident pick. As far as betting? I’d love to see them as a dog. Maybe they will be ranked and lose once or twice and fall out of favor then bam they are dogs? I doubt this happens but I’m open minded because I’m in the dark. Good job and thx for mentioning them. This team curtail or should have lots of eyeballs in them. As far as betting goes I love to follow teams that get a lot of attention. For bettors, Indiana and Army were the early season stories last year. This could be a team like that. Something to consider and your comment about a tough test early in Utah maybe a slow start team that gains huge momentum heading into the playoff? Just guessing here.
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Boa33 | 8 |
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I love unders in early week and totals less than 55 return a nice profit. Week 1 and 2 and low totals are meaningful because the defenses are ahead of the offenses and that’s the way the oddsmaker has capped the game as fair value. Unders are winning all game until the offenses solve the total. I like being the favorite to win. Low total too don’t expect lights out scoring. If the game goes over most are very close to the number. |
Bridge1 | 174 |
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Okay yes I agree but I don’t want this thread to turn into to something directly related to him. Your kind comment can quickly turn up some fleas. I am a fan of Michigan but I am a bettor first. I don’t even comment much about Michigan. Michigan are fades to me as favorites. Now recently that hasn’t been the case but their recent success won’t be sustained to an excellent championship level season after season. Let Michigan fall out of the top 15 and be favorites I’ll fade them all day. That’s my team though. |
LonghornHoosier | 46 |
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nn:line and on:line<-7 and o:team and AD and line<3 and season>1995 and tpS(W)<13 and n:line<6 and week<8 and opS(W)<8 |
spottie2935 | 148 |
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Here is a query in the early weeks for and away favorite ACC team that failed to win 8 games the previous season. These are typically lower profile teams that don’t typically get 5star athletes at high production positions. Once in a blue moon a Calvin Johnson does occur but now that money is involved it’s even lesser likely. week<5 and AF and conference=ACC and division=FBS and line>-15 and tpS(W)<8 and season>2014 and total<64 and n:H
Georgia Tech didn’t win 8 games last season and these teams have only qualified in 24 game results here meaning that they don’t get an away favorite game when the line is between 0 and -15 very often. the results are 7-17 ats as a conference. When the line is -15 or less meaning higher line that’s when these ACC excel. Bottom line the way I categorize these typical .500 type ACC teams, they are much more worth of backing and covering as Dogs. There is lots of past data evidence to prove that to be factual.
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LonghornHoosier | 46 |
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@JozKnows I don’t think you’re wrong. You’re pouring into GTCh strong points. The new CU linebackers are in for some adversity for sure. I have a better handle on CU because they have pulled me in. Ad far as X and O’s and watching games like a business person should? That’s not my thing. I trust the past and I trust team history. If Georgia Tech can excel past their slim history on the road as favorites. They beat me. I just see a weakness in their program in these situations and I make them beat me. CU is a news story and it will be bigger news because they are dogs and that means they are not supposed to win this game. That’s going to attract all the daily news and drama all week after this game. They are something to talk about. 70% or more of the week one games have no flavor. A CU win here and the buzz and hatred begins to elevate. I can’t see CU losing this game right off the jump and this loss making them less of a story in weeks to come. week one dogs bark big in games that are not played on Saturdays. What for this to take place once again this season.
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LonghornHoosier | 46 |
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@Flynt I can be a pest when things don’t go well, but the other side of the coin for me is gratitude. It’s all fixed now and I appreciate you. take care have a great day |
spottie2935 | 12 |
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Some of the stuff that plays out on the field can not be capped or seen before the game play. analyze this however to make a valid point. bottom line it’s a good matchup and both teams have talent and holes. I can’t argue getting again CU they have isssues of course fight back from 1-11 the worst team in a long time. Losing 2 big time playmaker from last year.
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LonghornHoosier | 46 |
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@JozKnows I’m not sleeping on them. I don’t have time and all day to explain every detail either. Cap the game how I do I also use a line and in my opinion on home theft against a middle ACC team I’ll take the points |
LonghornHoosier | 46 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Digitalkarma:
Quote Originally Posted by spottie2935: I’m not counting this yet but I knew this line was off. With Rhyne Howard out and the stars for Mercury back I would have expected this line to be -9.5 , but 7 to 7.5 seem too good to be true
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Digitalkarma | 12 |
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I’m not counting this yet but I knew this line was off. |
Digitalkarma | 12 |
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