Everything is great. It really is. I love weeks past week 3 yet I’m still doing well enough for me. I really have a hold of these games and lines. I’ll put it on paper so you can see.
It’s time and I am ready.
I am only listing teams I like I have not updated my lines in a few hours.
I don’t give too much credit to Army because they lost to Tarleton St, then beat a dysfunctional K St team. it’s their 3rd game and A favorite after losing some extremely talented 2024 players and most importantly the Stud QB. The only thing I don’t like is North Texas season so far is excellent which the way I play it doesn’t create enough line volatile and possible separation. I might scratch the game.
SMU
I need to do more digging on this game. Are their injuries? I’d is +6.5 just based upon past scores and line failures.
MIAMI OH
UNLV coming off a huge win for their program. Maybe UCLA is bad but the name recognition for UCLA elevates UNLV. On the road laying points Is a possible opportunity to fade them and get a win. What I don’t like is the line. Maybe that’s why the line is low. Could be a possible soft spot. Not one of my elite plays but it qualifies.
W.Mich
Coming off a game getting dominated getting a lot of points at home. I don’t love the team but this line is what I look for. I play lines not box scores and player Stats. This line is 17 on a neutral site which makes this line more valuable tfan last weeks 28 point like to highly ranked Illinois.
Troy
List miserably in a home game to Memphis last week now playing Buffalo with the same line. That’s a hidden gem.
Coastal Car
isn’t good but S.Alabama laying -14 is an opportunity for the dog to get the money.
Colorado St
I am bearish on UTSA. Colorado St was decent last season but I have not paid attention to their defense. I like their WB but losing Tory Horton ? I might cut out this play but I’d love to Fade UTSA because I think their perception is off based upon a strong end to 2024. Lots of covers last year at the end vs a pretty easy schedule. CSU needs points in this game. A few stops or miscues by UTSA might be the key.
Wyoming.
At this point I’m not counting out CU to make 6 wins and get a bowl but as it looks at the moment it’s dark. I want CU to lose this game so next week against BYU they get more points. Can’t back CU laying 2 tds here.
Auburn
Slept walked the last 2 games and we’re over laying points. This line switch and previous line failures makes them valuable again.
Purdue
I tagged this team in the preseason as a team on the rise after missing so many spreads by a lot of points the previous season. They are rocking steady and I’m sticking with them. Notre Dame is not in 2034 and they are failing against strong lines. This line is too strong once again. The way Notre Dame plays is not conducive for blow outs. If they are allowed to play their game they run the ball and play good defense. If Purdue doesn’t make big mistakes that should keep this score within 4 tds.
South Carolina
its a decent line vs Miz. Last weeks score and South Carolina weak performance is influencing this line reaction. Missouri was -5.5 to Kansas 2 weeks ago and the top 25 rating and previous South Carolina previous lines has me buying in on this opportunity.
N. ILL
It’s just a fade of a hot team over playing this line. Ms St has performed above expectations recently but this line will push them. They have Tenny on deck as well.
Liberty
This okay is questionable and I may cut it but JMad laying 2 tds on the road after covering on ESPN 10 days ago. They lost that game they had an opportunity to win. They have 2 quarterbacks and that screwed them up.
Nevada
Terrible team but a nice line and situation after a bad game. Just playing a game based upon a possible line overreaction to what happened last week. I am not confident in WKY laying 10 points but if Nevada blows again that 10 points isn’t enough. Another cut game. I need to dig more on this game.
S. Miss
I don’t this LTCH last 2 games scares S miss at all. I think this is a wrong team favorite.
Geo St
yhe line increasing will get me to cut this game. I think Candy is going to top out ATS very soon. They can and have disappointed as favorites after big wins, even With Pavia. If the line drops tgat is an indicator that the opener was set too high and the book has a cushion.
Louisiana Monroe
6 straight ATS failures and a 73-0 loss to Bama in the last game. Playing a team that’s rarely a favorite that just played Texas hard. Soft spot in this favorite taking the points because how can the books not increase this line. Hold my nose and hope the books made the line too much.
@undermysac
You’re right Coastal is trash. I target games like this. See last week UAB vs Akron last week. Too many points with a team that is rarely a favorite. They just want the W. CSTL last 4 games combined have lost all 4 ATS by a combined -90 points. This is a volatile possibility and where the line could be and should be over lined. Garbage team that in most cases the books counter act the past sh!ty performances.
I’m betting the teams that the book will adjust the previous games and failures or extreme wins.
It’s volatility that I seek. How do they set the lines so the same team doesn’t keep assaulting the books. I have the data to back up my plays and theories. In most cases the books adjust and I group all the games equally and it has been successful.
There have been some bad weeks but if it happens it’s okay. I won’t catch all these but at worst I’m 50/ long term.
I try to play favorites and my record has suffered this season because of it. There are so many teams it’s hard for the books to line a game.
The games where the books make it tough on me is the consistency of teams like Army and Indiana in 2024 but those consistent teams are one in a select few. The other favorites meander with their ATS and lines. I count on the meandering.
@undermysac
The top 10 favorites have covered 7 of 26
that balances out last years favorites domination. The only dog that covered a line more than *1 was Arizona St vs Texas. The rest were chalk or + or -1 lines. The books are getting revenge from that scenario.
Hey Spottie, I know its established that lines mean more to you than matchups......
Concerning N.Texas @ Army:
- North Texas defense is rated #128th > they barely won in overtime vs Western Michigan who are rated about 115th-120th best teams and N.Texas gave up 234 yds on the ground to them
- Army doesn't run do they?? I hear they are not good vs the run, especially at home 
....or did I hear wrong?
Just having some fun with ya.... Army won't have an issue controlling the ball for long stretches and that means scoring regularly and on the field while the N.Texas offense gets anxious on the sidelines trying to match
If I can change your mind on one game, that is the one with N.Texas now -1 ....if you were getting +3.5, I would totally understand bro
GL
P.s. Troy's QB is questionable and he is good....I looked into that one right away when I saw the line but won't touch now
@Last2thirst
Solid points and rushing teams like the military school are difficult to beat for sure. I’m not sold because N. Texas last game was a 40 point cover. That’s not a good situation because snorts Texas has eyes in them. I’m trying to find situations where the lines are taken away from certain teams and addition points are added to the teams that look like scum. Yea I end up on some crappy teams but in week 4 I’ll play them then I can omit them later
In week 3 scum teams that stepped up
middle Tennessee
Akron
Stanford
come to mind. I had 2 of those but Middke Tenn scares me because of their history. I might have been tempted to omit Stanford but they had no home games facing a dog team traveling cross country to play a night game in a 3 hour time difference in Boston college. I post my thoughts and games so when we are not congruent we can discuss. There are some games my team is just plain trash.
The best situation is both team are coming off bad ATS games and one team is over lived. UAB last week
This week
UTEP vs L. Monroe
Is one example.
look I know I’m wrong a lot but go make over A 100 plays in 3 eeeks and have a winning record.
I got all week to reduce my action. I do appreciate some help in my isolation process.
I don’t recall exactly my win loss record if I eliminate all the games I had action on the favorites this year but I lost a lot more than I won. My record is stands but I know what I’m capable of.
Something is very wrong with coastal and 4 games straight is a game where they must also play trash. I can’t figure out if the line is enough and some teams no matter the line, it’s not enough. I think at this point Coastal will come a lot closer to the line than the last dysfunctional games. I guess a teaser will help but I don’t play those. I am expecting better results from Coastal but maybe I am best to sit to see something better. Some teams are just losers all season.
S.Carolina Sellers out maybe I’ll past on posting them as a play. As in my personal betting in game plays I might read the game I’d S.Carolina’s playing well. Maybe the under because these teams can call on defense. South Carolina can still cover but if they do it most likely will stay under. With a half a QB or a back up there’s a lot of uncertainty.
@spottie2935
SMU +7 interesting. I haven’t looked at yet or dug into things. Feels almost too good to be true?
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