I AM HUGE (5-5 YTD ATS 50%) WEEK 4 PICKS AND ANALYSIS

Here are my selections (in bold) for this week (home team in CAPS) ...analysis to follow....which ones do you like?

ARMY -1.5

INDIANA -3

OKLAHOMA -4.5

coastal carolina +14

wyoming +15.5

Sorry...forgot to include the opponents:

ARMY -1.5 north texas

INDIANA -3 illinois

OKLAHOMA -4.5 auburn

coastal carolina +14  SOUTH ALABAMA

wyoming +15.5 COLORADA

Indiana vs Illinois, this should be a great game. Cignetti is such a perfectionist and it shows. Demands a full 60 minutes from his players. 

Bielema has a solid team that looks to be peaking this year. And they too play solid football. 

IMO, if these two played 10 times the record would be 5-5. Talent wise I would favor Illini. Illini has been tested by Duke on the road. Indy yet to be tested. 

Indy runs the ball better so far and I like the better rushing team. But......Indy defense is 120th in the country giving up an average 5.6 yds/carry. And that was all Old Dominion in 1st game so could be they needed a game to find themselves. Hard to judge playing Indiana State and Kennesaw State. 

Pretty sure I'll skip this game and look for inplay opportunities.

Can get Illinois +4.5 now Uniman 

I am scouring for injuries but don't see any bad ones to key players 

I love Auburn this year. Does that mean they cover 4.5 in Norman?  Maybe.  I'll probably spectate.  

I also love USA, generally.  I'll have to look into Coastal more. That line seems about right.

I played Wyoming and Indiana on open.  Also played UNT on open.  Want to talk me out of it?

Please review my analysis and provide any feedback...Good luck!

ARMY -1.5 north texas

We all remember the blockbuster movie hit “Black Knight” starring Martin Lawrence.  Today’s Black Knights from West Point have nothing to fear when the not so Mean Green of North Texas travel up the Hudson.   West Point is getting disrespected because they lost in OT to an FCS school, Tarleton State.  Now don’t be so fast to throw shade on Tarleton State.  They are 4-0 and a top 5 FCS school, and likely capable of beating half the teams in FBS.  What is more indicative of the strength of this Army team was their defeat of Kansas State on the road.  Now K State has had their problems winning games, but all of their other two losses were very close ones to undefeated Arizona and undefeated Iowa State.  If Arizona, Iowa State or Kansas State had a home game against North Texas, would you even question the fact that each of these teams would beat the Mean Green?

The Black Knights have played a couple of games this season, and their approach is as subtle as a tank parade. They have run the ball on a staggering 83% of their plays.   This isn't just a strategy; it's a statement. They're telling their opponent, "We're going to grind you into a fine powder, and there's nothing you can do about it." The result of this ball-control mastery? Army has dominated time of possession, holding the ball for an average of 38 minutes per game. That means North Texas’s offense will have fewer possessions than a Kardashian has degrees.  North Texas is an empty suit…they act like they are explosive on offense but they forget to play defense.   Army had a bye week to prepare for this game.  North Texas is still strutting about their victory over the Cougars and have paid zero attention to stopping the triple option.

Now, let's turn to the "Mean Green" from North Texas.  Yes they beat Washington State and put up a big number, but they were the beneficiary of 5 turnovers in that game.   They gave up 30 points to Western Michigan in a 33-30 victory, but the Broncs scored a total of 6 points in their other two games.  In their first two games, opponents have had little trouble moving the ball on the ground against UNT, gaining over 400 yards on 80 carries for 5.0 yards per carry. That's a triple-option buffet for the Army offense. If Army gets its typical 70-80 offensive plays in this game, they could very easily get over 500 yards rushing against a defense that's softer than a mayonnaise sandwich on Wonder Bread.  Defensively, UNT has allowed 247 rushing yards and 175 passing yards in two games (vs Lamar and at Western Michigan), for a total of ~?422 yards/game allowed. In 2024, UNT was among the worst in scoring defense (~?34.2 points allowed per game) and total defense (yards allowed ~?460.5/game).

The Mean Green won't have luck running the ball against the disciplined Army defense.  Kansas State only managed 74 yards total.   North Texas hasn’t played anyone yet and there is no reason to expect that they will do any better running the ball against Army than K State did.  You know what happens when you can't run the ball on the road and have the ball for only 22 minutes a game? You lose… that's what happens.

Defensively, North Texas is going to have all kinds of problems stopping Army. The Black Knights have only one lost fumble so far this season, so clearly their ball carriers have good ball control skills. This means North Texas can't rely on turnovers to save them.  Historical matchups also favor Army, as they have won six of their last eight games against North Texas.  After Saturday it will be 7 of 9.  Big win for Army.