Posted:
#251
I think Worthlessburger will somehow find a way. Going with the Steelers here. gl all...
Pittsburgh at Green Bay (02/06/2011)
Posted:
#253
Quote Originally Posted by IronMan1:
I have not posted in months, but I have handicapped this outstanding SuperBowl game:
factors I used in determining my pick:
1) aggregate ages of the Rosters:
GB is the 3rd youngest team in the NFL; Pitt has the OLDEST aged roster. To my knowledge, NO team has ever won the big game as the OLDEST aged team.
2) Turf conditions: many other posters properly reported how GB was not so sharp at CHI, laying goose eggs in the 3rd and 4th Q's, but CHI's field is one of the worst in the NFL. Jerry Jones' World has a FAST track. Not sloppy like Soldier's Field. Hint: GB 48, Atl 24.
3) PITT C Pouncey is probably out. S Polomalu will start, but is he 100%? PITT lineman Starks Questionable.
GB is actually relatively healthier right now.
4) Yes NYJ almost came back against PITT. yes CHI almost came back against GB. Both teams are very capable "front-runners"( maintaining a lead). The difference here: the GB/CHI game was a RIVALRY, the NYJ/PITT was not a rivalry. CHI had the edge of being really familiar with their division rival; PITT lost to NYJ at PITT, but did manage to avenge that loss( barely). In that avenged win for PITT, that bad call against NYJ QB Sanchez when his arm WAS going forward, PITT recovers, scores. That score was the difference in that game. The CHI/GB game? GB QB Rogers' was zeroing in on a 21-0 lead until LB Urlacher intercepted that pass. GB seemed to be able to make big plays when they need them( don't forget the INT by GB vs. PHI's Vick when it looked like they might beat the Pack)..
5) Only THREE( 3) teams as a Wild-card entrant has ever been favored: 1) 2000 ravens -3 over NYG, PITT favored over SEA -4, and this year GB - 2.56( some -3's popping up). Those two other wild card fav's are 2-0. The trend favors the Pack.
6) Generally speaking, the Fav wins more SuperBowls than loses them. In the years 1998 - 2009 the dogs covered over half of the years indicated, but since 1967 SuperBowl era the Fav wins.
7) GB has the better team speed. PITT is more of a "grinder". PITT cannot afford a slow start, and when they are way behind, they struggle. See NE game. GB has that type of team that can score quickly, and can comeback if needed. They have not lost a game by more than 7 points all year long.
8) Yes PITT did overcome the halftime loss vs. BAL, but I think that it was more of BAL's WR's dropping the balls on 4th down that doomed them, and the penalty on that PR hurt BAL. BAL choked.
9 Yes PITT has the experience, and the Pack is young.
PICK: Green Bay and the Over: Projected score:
Green Bay 31, PITT 16.
Nice Post!
Posted:
#256
I take that back freedom that was not your post this is for Ironman
Ironman what are you talking about Dick Lebeau and Capers work together it Pitt under Bill Cower. How do you say they are not familiar which each other Greenbay will win by 1.
Come on Man!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Sorry Freedom
Posted:
#259
In that article about the $1 million dollar wager it says quote "Most books in Las Vegas, including Luxor (MGM Mirage property) have adjusted the juice to -120 but kept the number at 2.5."
Capping the game is great yes, but being able to cap the line and the game is even better. Your not going to be able to outsmart Vegas and their formula by looking at trends I can guarantee you that. Ask yourself what is keeping Vegas off the key # 3?
Also loving the fact that the ESPN is all over GB, I know Vegas pulls the strings behind that operation telling the analyst which way they want them to lean.
PITT Plus anything over 1 over 44.5
Posted:
#260
Thanks for everyone's input all year. Here is where I push all my chips to the center of the table. Won big on the Steelers 1st half and game, and Packers 1st half and game. Last play PACKERS -2.5. I'm a Packer homer as I have stated many times before. Never bet your heart, never bet your roll. I'm going against that. GO PACK GO for everything I have in my account.
GLTA
Posted:
#265
Kudos IRONMAN 1.One hell of a write up,takin' words right out of my mouth !
Fascinating seeing fingers pointing to Packers-Bears recent matchup and to Pitt's experience factor cappin' SB 45.
With General consensus seemingly focused on Packers winning unimpressively at sloder field, perhaps comparing GB's acid road test as 6th seeded road warriors to Steelers home play facing duo of sub offensive teams will silence critics.
While Pack dominated Bears from get go ,GB's D ran out of gas in 2 nd half finishing 3 rd consecutive road game vs a bitter rival under freezing conditions.Combined with road fatigue,cold will take its toll.
Been there done that,experience factor ? ( Check Colts experience factor for Super Bowl 44 ) While it's true that Pitt has more SB experience ,it's the in zone,hot team that can cancel out such experience factor especially with Pack having little to none scandals or distractive issues that is plaguing Pitt.
Pack is clearly the Hot,in zone team with a Cool headed,confident QB leading the way,who is unlikely to be rattled by SB fever.
Looking closer at GB's last seven games to Pitt's last 7 clearly shows Pitt having a cream puff schedule compared to GB and with Packs explosive ability indoors that Pitt simply does not have with Pitt struggling in 4 games played indoors,Pitt could be caught off guard via Packs youthful speed.Last year @ Pitt ,GB successfully used different blitz packages with Woodsen n' Mathews.This year's Packers has dramatically improved while Pitt's O line is clearly hurtin' with Pitt's center line having combined 3 starting games experience.While Pitt has tuffest 3-4 D in the league,one can not forget that Cappers brought 3-4 D to Pitt under Cowher's rule.Not taking anything from Lebeau,Cappers has a distinct advantage being all too familiar with Pitt's steel pulse.
On offense ,Rodgers has 3 rd best QB rating in the league with dead aim vs Pitt's only soft defensive spot having 6 DB starters aged over 30 yrs facing Packs slant pattern speedsters.Should GB get typical quick strike lead, Cappers will have luxury of using exotic blitz packages to fluster Big Ben forcing Ben to test GB's DB 's that have not allowed more than 3 receivers to top 100 yrds this year.Ben can run but would be lucky to gain more than 20 game yards vs. Packs run D that neutralized Vick,Mc Coy,Forte and Turner.In fact,Pack have not allowed a 100 yrd rusher since losing to Falcons nine weeks ago.
For Pitt to win they would do well to copy Lions game plan,utilizing 6 backs to control clock gaining 190 yrds instead of giving work load to Mendenhall who will be wearing Pack Bull's eye. Wallace is a threat receiver but he's no Santonio Holmes and Ward should be a no factor vs GB's much improved secondary that will not allow similar last tic meltdown @ Pitt last year.Unless Pack plays undisciplined ball,shooting themselves in the foot much like Ravens did squandering 21 pt lead to Pitt,GB will win this game seeing it highly unlikely that Pack will allow Pitt to score trademark last tic TD as in recent superbowls. Last but not least,the obvious angle is Pats torching Pitt's secondary @ Pitt via 39 pts much like Pack did last year @ Pitt scoring 36.Pack with same genre offense n' way better D than last year will score 30 + Pts while keeping Pitt below 30 this time out.
I implore all newbies n' those stuck in stats rut city to one,never pay for picks but rather invest time and money studying outside disciplines underlying successful patterns in everything from Gambling to investing and politics.Though this theory is not proven I highly recommend those seeking a different angle to branch out towards numerology and astrology .History does repeat itself under certain planetary aspects and to quote John Pierpont Morgan " Millionaires do not use astrology but Billionaires do" Nostrodamus used this scientific discipline as well via cryptic numerology which is accessible to the open hearts and minds.
Cryptic Numerology Example: WTC attack took place on Sept. 11 th 2001.( 911) First flight to hit towers was flight 11 which had 92 on board.In numerology 9+2 = 11. Flight 77 had 65 on board...6+5 = 11.NYC has 11 letters and state of New York is the 11 th state of the union.Coincidence ? NOT.While one smoking monkey on this site once quoted "That predictions are merely mortal guesses" picking 8 of last 10 Super Bowls n' being 16 - 5 Last 2 playoff years has paid off nicely through traditional cappin' ,numerology and Tarot.Through some numerology n' traditional cappin' picked Saints and under last $$$$ n' this year all numbers and underlying trends seem to point out to a Packers win.
PACKERS 31 PITT 23
B $ L A
Good to see you Sneakin' out of Moby's Belly with gum boots n' snorkel Mr.BPhinn...Seen any smoking monkeys or frogs in there ?
Mon Colonel...NFC has won 13 consecutive coin tosses ! CHEERS.
Posted:
#270
Quote Originally Posted by danielbriseno:
Freedom what are you talking about Dick Lebeau and Capers work together it Pitt under Bill Cower. How do you say they are not familiar which each other Greenbay will win by 1.Come on Man!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The intention of that post was meaning that GB and PITT are NOT Division Rivals, thus they do not have a whole lot to go on. Yes they played that Offensive specatacle last year, 37-36 or whatever it was, PITT winning by one point, but GB's team has changed A LOT since then. PITT is sort of the same, similar run-smash team.
Of Course those outstanding D coord you name know each other's tendencies, but the DC's are REACTIVE to the flow of how their opponents' O is doing. They are not planning to outsmart the other DC, they are trying to stop the O of each respective side.
I stand behind my handicapping of this game, and still convinced GB is going to win it.
IronMan1
Posted:
#271
Quote Originally Posted by danielbriseno:
I will take Dick Lebeau Over Don Capers anyday capers joined the Packers last year. Lebeau has been working with this def for close to 7 years now and has won superbowl ring. Don't forget Tomlin was the def coach when they won the superbowl with Bill Cower. Just a thought?
I will take Dick Lebeau Over Don Capers anyday capers joined the Packers last year. Lebeau has been working with this def for close to 7 years now and has won superbowl ring. Don't forget Tomlin was the def coach when they won the superbowl with Bill Cower. Just a thought?
This post quoted is just a MINOR variable to consider. Now that this may be something else to consider, Capers has done an Excellent job in his only year for the Pack.
Lebeau is great, and also does excellent year in and year out.
But just because Lebeau has a ring is not going to mean that his D is going to win this game; too many other factors to consider.
IronMan1
Posted:
#272
SpyWeb...
Is this the same Spy that predicted Cowbillies sub-par year ?
Every year that is...lol
First Breakaballs terrible towel angle in Arlington now this fatigue factor...
After two weeks rest n' 30 minute half time show ?
If anything will be Pitt's DB's huffin n' puffin' chasing bombs n' rabbits with Jerry Jones crankin' up thermostat assuring an NFC win at Cowbillie Stadium's maiden S bowl.
GL
Posted:
#273
This logic in the first part of this post will be shot down right after I post it, but it’s all in fun anyway. So don’t take it too seriously.
I was listening to ESPN radio and the GM of ESPN radio was being interviewed. He stated that if the Super Bowl were to be a blowout, the Packers would most likely win in that scenario. They are built for speed and have outscored their opponents 99 – 51 in domes.
The probability that the game is a blowout is 50/50 or 50%, which favors the Packers. It doesn’t matter what your definition of a blowout is. It could be 10 or more points or whatever.
If the game is close, let’s say under 10 points, I think that the odds of either team winning is 50/50. But for argument sake, we’ll say the Steeler have a better chance in a close game. Let’s say 60/40. This means that out of the 50% probability of a close game, the Steelers have a 60% chance of winning. 60% of 50% is 30%. For the Packers, 40% of 50% is 20%.
Add the 50% chance of a blowout, which favors the Packers to the 20% chance of a Packer win in a close game and you get 70%.
So in this scenario, the Packers have a 70% chance of winning the game, and the Steelers have a 30% chance.
Here is a great statistic to keep in mind. 70% of all NFL games are won by 4 or more
points. With the line at –2.5 the
Packers have at least a 70% shot at a pointspread victory, providing that they
can win the game outright.
Posted:
#274
Quote Originally Posted by freedomteam:
This logic in the first part of this post will be shot down right after I post it, but it’s all in fun anyway. So don’t take it too seriously.
I was listening to ESPN radio and the GM of ESPN radio was being interviewed. He stated that if the Super Bowl were to be a blowout, the Packers would most likely win in that scenario. They are built for speed and have outscored their opponents 99 – 51 in domes.
The probability that the game is a blowout is 50/50 or 50%, which favors the Packers. It doesn’t matter what your definition of a blowout is. It could be 10 or more points or whatever.
If the game is close, let’s say under 10 points, I think that the odds of either team winning is 50/50. But for argument sake, we’ll say the Steeler have a better chance in a close game. Let’s say 60/40. This means that out of the 50% probability of a close game, the Steelers have a 60% chance of winning. 60% of 50% is 30%. For the Packers, 40% of 50% is 20%.
Add the 50% chance of a blowout, which favors the Packers to the 20% chance of a Packer win in a close game and you get 70%.
So in this scenario, the Packers have a 70% chance of winning the game, and the Steelers have a 30% chance.
Here is a great statistic to keep in mind. 70% of all NFL games are won by 4 or more
points. With the line at –2.5 the
Packers have at least a 70% shot at a pointspread victory, providing that they
can win the game outright.
Another great statistic - since I will be watching the game at my good friend's house (he also brews his own beer and will have plenty of homemade pale ale and oatmeal stout on tap)
there is a 99.9999999999999% chance that I will be buzzed/half drunk by halftime........
GO PACKERS!!!!!!!!!!!!
Posted:
#275
Quote Originally Posted by jonfon:
ok...let's put it out there right now and be done with such NONSENSE..........
IN THE NEXT 2 WEEKS, anyone who brings up the Seedings (2 vs. 6) has absolutely no credibility.
they mean NOTHING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
don't waste our time please...thanks.
ok...let's put it out there right now and be done with such NONSENSE..........
IN THE NEXT 2 WEEKS, anyone who brings up the Seedings (2 vs. 6) has absolutely no credibility.
they mean NOTHING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
don't waste our time please...thanks.
lol no sh9t thanks for saying it or else I was about to mention "seeds" in the SUPERBOWL?? hahaha
Anyways folks pretty cut and dry Packers -3 time to put the Steelers down pretty hard
Hot Forum Topics
