New Orleans at San Francisco (01/14/2012)

Niners have the best defense in the league, but how are they gonna cover everyone? Jimmy Graham is a total mismatch, I don't care who they try throwing on him and if they double-team, that means someone's gonna be open. I think the Niners play them close, but if the Saints strike early and put San Fran in a hole early forcing Alex Smith to make throws and get out of his comfort zone, it could potentially get ugly..

Saints are on a mission.  They will beat SF because while SF has a great defense, they haven't played an offense like the Saints this year.  NO. 24-10

Love the Saints here. The Niners had a fun year, but they have no playoff experience. The Saints in the other hand, has been here before. Saints should have little trouble putting the Niners away here. 

49ERS PLUS 3.5

ANYONE VISIT THE GIANT PACKER THREAD? DONT BOTHER

SF going get 1 ass beating! just like Detroit...WHO DAT!!

Who Dat!  winna!  Saints cover bro

The three games that NO lost are against the teams that can stop the run:

                        NO                 GB                    Result

Rush/yds         81                  103              lost 34-41

................................................................................................ 

                         NO                  TB

Rush/yds         70                   117             lost 20-26

..................................................................................................

                         NO                    SL

Rush/yds         56                     140           lost 21-31

....................................................................................................

and the games that they almost lost...

                         NO                     AT

Rush/yds          41                      138          won in OT 26-23

...........................................................................................................

As you can see that NO will have problem playing against SF who allowed only ave. 79 yds./gm rushing 'cause then they become one dimension team (passing).

 

Oops...another game was against Carolina..

they had only 101 yds. rushing vs. 162 yds. for Carolina and won 30-27)

SF beat both teams that beat NO, beat TB 48-3, beat SL twice 20-6 and 34-27.

The Niners, at home, have defeated the following teams this season:  Seattle, Tampa Bay, Cleveland, Arizona, St. Louis, NY Giants (teams with a 34-62 record combined).  Yes, they beat Pittsburgh recently on MNF (lead by a hobbling Big Ben at the helm) but they also lost to Dallas in Week 2 at home.  We know were Dallas is right now.   Yes, the Niners have won well at home for sure, but not against anyone high-caliber.  But I do believe the Saints will be the most formidable opponent yet for the Niners.  Mind you, on the flip side, the Saints will face their toughest test to date in the high-caliber defense San Fran brings.  New Orleans will field their number one passing offense, as prolific as it is, going up against a San Fran pass defense ranked 16th overall.  And, even if the Saints don’t get the big pass plays off, or succumb to home crowd noise, they’ll scheme just enough and win on the dink-and-dunk, check-downs, and screen plays.  But, the Niners 2nd best defense will put the Saints to the test, no question about it!  

I believe the fact that the Saints have a healthy backfield is a plus, no matter what public-perceived limited chance the Saints have in running against the Niners – Saints coach Payton and co. will mix it up enough (using concoctions that many opposing coaches this season have hinted admittedly as being potent and hard to scheme against) and could potentially give the Niners matchup nightmares they’ve yet to face this season, eventually wearing them down into the fourth quarter.  Actually, I don’t think ‘first year’ coach Harbaugh and co. will be able to keep up thru the fourth quarter... I’ve heard some arguments he’s in over his head... then again, aside from all that chatter, who really knows? 

I do think the Saints have enough in their arsenal to pull off the win.  To me, there is a reason why they’re favored, even as the number 3 seed playing on the road at the 2nd seed.  The Saints have won six straight and they’re 4-2 ATS against the 49ers in those last six.  In their last meeting versus the Niners at San Fran on MNF Week 2 in 2010, Brees came up with that last minute late drive, then a 37-yard field goal after time expired to cap that winning drive that gave the Saints a 25-22 victory over the Niners.  That game was tight but I do see a similar scoring outcome, something like 27-23 or 24 for the Saints.  Funny thing is that a few weeks back, I was in the same decision making mode when the Saints were at Tennessee.  I decided to bet against the Saints and take the Titans with the points based on the strength of the Titans D at home, and the Saints went into Tennessee as 3.5 point favs and won, they also covered in that 22-17 win.  The Titans are not the Niners by any stretch, but I do remember how the same argument came into play for potential Saints backers like me, whether they could go on the road outdoors and beat a stronger defense in the Titans.  We were proven wrong. Still, not sure 'yet' if the Saints will cover that half point on three in this one.

San Francisco has not won or been to a playoff game since 2002, when they ‘memorably’ rallied past the NY Giants for a 39-38 victory.  Most certainly though, a decade later, give coach Jim Harbaugh props, he should get coach of the year honors, hands down.   But when push comes to shove, I’d have to lean more on experienced coaches Payton and dc Williams, they’ve already ‘been there and done that’.  In fact, any day, I would take coach Payton over Harbaugh’s ‘virgin’ journey through what is truly unchartered territory for him.  I don’t think the 49ers want to get into any kind of offensive shootout with the Saints, because I would certainly take QB Brees over Smith any day too.   I believe this game will come down to time of possession, and turnovers.  The team winning the battle in both categories will win this one.  San Francisco finished first in turnover ratio in 2011 with an astounding +28 I believe, so the Saints will have to play disciplined ball (last week the Saints turned the ball over twice in their win over the Lions).   

Strangely though, I was on all the home teams last week and the home teams did well – something tells me the road teams will take their turn in a flipped wacky divisional playoff trend this weekend.  Maybe.  Well, it would not surprise me in the slightest.  For this one though, the Saints should put together a game plan that should get them the win but I'm not ready to give that half. I will probably take the Niners with the points as I think this game will come down to a boot -- but I may change my mind come Friday or Saturday morning.  The Saints are coming off their home win over Detroit and head into this one with more momentum than the Niners do.  So I am leaning on the Saints for the win straight up by three. 

Saints will have to bow up on defense to win this game on the road!  With healthy running backs and Brees hitting on all cylinders, I think the Saints, if the defense bows up, will cover!

 

box person

 - - that's it right there.........

to sum up - Niners can run and stop the run. Detriot could do neither. And, due to the short week and cross country trip, you'll see the Saints sucking some hard wind by the third quarter. Plus it's outside and on grass? Plus I get points?

Niners +3.5

Niners M/L

Niners 1st half, 2nd half, O/T, whatever.............

Oh, and I like the over 47.5 too............... Should be a beautiful afternoon - points will be scored.........

       Both teams are having a stellar year. We can all be impressed on how the Saints light up the board at home. But on the road,they're a "different animal".  While I could see a possibilty of a close 1-2 point win by New Orleans, the most likely scenario is a San Francisco win & cover. 

SAN FRANCISCO   +3.5

All 3 of those teams you mentioned are not great run stopping teams. Saints may have just had a bad game running the football those games. Rams Bucs & Green Bay are so-so run defenses. Just an FYI

I like the UNDER, if I had to choose the winner, it's Saints but I have a feeling the money is going to the 49rs for the win. Either way, I'd rather have Packers vs 49'rs for NFC Champions.

Been thinking about this match back since week 17 and we knew it's going to happen.  What have we learn from the Wildcard games??? Playoff is unpredictable.  Like the way Tebow threw the ball vs Pitt.  Stats says that Saint are bad outside of dome and score ave. of  27ppg and same goes with Niners at home (27ppg). Since this is the playoff and it's UNPREDICTABLE, I can see that Saints might be better on road and Niners might be better at passing and Redzones.  Anything can happen on this game.  I will stay away because this is my home game and the fact that I want the Niners to win so badly that it makes no sense for me to root the Saints.  But if I had to pick.. I would take the Saint -2.5 or SF +4.5.  I think Saint will win by 3-4

In the first round of the playoffs, the favorites win about 80% of the time.  This year, all the favorites won except Pittsburgh.  With that being said, in the second round, the underdogs win more than half of the game because they have already played one game and the first round bye teams come in with a few weeks off and their opponents already have played a game and got their confidence up.  With that being said, this week i am going to take all the underdogs EXCEPT the Saints.  The Saints have too much on Offense for San Fran to handle, yes i know thier defense is tops in the league, but the NFL is turned to a passing league now and Brees will prove my point this week.  For San Fran to win this game, they will have to put up atleast 28 points, and who really actually thinks Alex Smith is capable of that?? I sure as hell dont.  As far as the other game go, ill take the rest of the underdogs..  Houston can stop the run, an thats key because we all know Flacco chokes in the playoffs just like Matt Ryan does, so if houston can stop the run, cuz Ray Rice is the only reason they win, Houston should def. cover 8 points.  The Giants D is coming up big late an have all the momentum, 8 pts there is too much in my opinion again, and i dont care that Tebows throws under 50%, he makes plays and New England's D... well you know how they are... Awful.  So ill take the 3 underdogs and the Saints as the only favorite this weekend,  Good Luck everyone

[Quote: Originally Posted by SPFreak]

The Niners, at home, have defeated the following teams this season:  Seattle, Tampa Bay, Cleveland, Arizona, St. Louis, NY Giants (teams with a 34-62 record combined).  Yes, they beat Pittsburgh recently on MNF (lead by a hobbling Big Ben at the helm) but they also lost to Dallas in Week 2 at home.  We know were Dallas is right now.   Yes, the Niners have won well at home for sure, but not against anyone high-caliber.  But I do believe the Saints will be the most formidable opponent yet for the Niners.  Mind you, on the flip side, the Saints will face their toughest test to date in the high-caliber defense San Fran brings.  New Orleans will field their number one passing offense, as prolific as it is, going up against a San Fran pass defense ranked 16th overall.  And, even if the Saints don’t get the big pass plays off, or succumb to home crowd noise, they’ll scheme just enough and win on the dink-and-dunk, check-downs, and screen plays.  But, the Niners 2nd best defense will put the Saints to the test, no question about it!  

I believe the fact that the Saints have a healthy backfield is a plus, no matter what public-perceived limited chance the Saints have in running against the Niners – Saints coach Payton and co. will mix it up enough (using concoctions that many opposing coaches this season have hinted admittedly as being potent and hard to scheme against) and could potentially give the Niners matchup nightmares they’ve yet to face this season, eventually wearing them down into the fourth quarter.  Actually, I don’t think ‘first year’ coach Harbaugh and co. will be able to keep up thru the fourth quarter... I’ve heard some arguments he’s in over his head... then again, aside from all that chatter, who really knows? 

I do think the Saints have enough in their arsenal to pull off the win.  To me, there is a reason why they’re favored, even as the number 3 seed playing on the road at the 2nd seed.  The Saints have won six straight and they’re 4-2 ATS against the 49ers in those last six.  In their last meeting versus the Niners at San Fran on MNF Week 2 in 2010, Brees came up with that last minute late drive, then a 37-yard field goal after time expired to cap that winning drive that gave the Saints a 25-22 victory over the Niners.  That game was tight but I do see a similar scoring outcome, something like 27-23 or 24 for the Saints.  Funny thing is that a few weeks back, I was in the same decision making mode when the Saints were at Tennessee.  I decided to bet against the Saints and take the Titans with the points based on the strength of the Titans D at home, and the Saints went into Tennessee as 3.5 point favs and won, they also covered in that 22-17 win.  The Titans are not the Niners by any stretch, but I do remember how the same argument came into play for potential Saints backers like me, whether they could go on the road outdoors and beat a stronger defense in the Titans.  We were proven wrong. Still, not sure 'yet' if the Saints will cover that half point on three in this one.

San Francisco has not won or been to a playoff game since 2002, when they ‘memorably’ rallied past the NY Giants for a 39-38 victory.  Most certainly though, a decade later, give coach Jim Harbaugh props, he should get coach of the year honors, hands down.   But when push comes to shove, I’d have to lean more on experienced coaches Payton and dc Williams, they’ve already ‘been there and done that’.  In fact, any day, I would take coach Payton over Harbaugh’s ‘virgin’ journey through what is truly unchartered territory for him.  I don’t think the 49ers want to get into any kind of offensive shootout with the Saints, because I would certainly take QB Brees over Smith any day too.   I believe this game will come down to time of possession, and turnovers.  The team winning the battle in both categories will win this one.  San Francisco finished first in turnover ratio in 2011 with an astounding +28 I believe, so the Saints will have to play disciplined ball (last week the Saints turned the ball over twice in their win over the Lions).   

Strangely though, I was on all the home teams last week and the home teams did well – something tells me the road teams will take their turn in a flipped wacky divisional playoff trend this weekend.  Maybe.  Well, it would not surprise me in the slightest.  For this one though, the Saints should put together a game plan that should get them the win but I'm not ready to give that half. I will probably take the Niners with the points as I think this game will come down to a boot -- but I may change my mind come Friday or Saturday morning.  The Saints are coming off their home win over Detroit and head into this one with more momentum than the Niners do.  So I am leaning on the Saints for the win straight up by three. 

[Take the /Quote]Take the Saints and buy back the 1/2 point and/or take Saints ML.

I think new orleans offense is way too much to handle.. Brees can get it DONE, they have so much more fire power.  Brees can start of strong, if not 2half hell find a way..  I can not see niners defense keeping up all 4 quarters, they'll get burnt up and niners offense sucks in the redzone. 

SAINTS BABY!!!