Indianapolis at Tennessee (10/27/2008)

i dont deny that u went to those games but your statement is not very accurate, unless your talking about the 80s or 90s or something.

Since 2003, tennessee has gone 2-3 ats and 1-4 straight up when they are at home and facing indy.  So actually the opposite of your statement is true in recent history anyways. 

I havent bet on this game yet but im really starting to see alot of value on Indy moneyline here at +180.  This just looks like one of those spots where things start to even out a little.  Indy coming off big deafeat as a favorite and are now dogged.  And tennessee coming off a blowout win against a garbage team.  Tennessee hasnt lost a game or not covered a spread yet this season.  and lets face it, its not gonna last forever.  And who better to lose to than a division foe like indy who is very familiar with them and has a history of beating them.  Meanwhile indy got off to a terrible start this season and needs this game bad to get back in playoff race.  Its easy to see why most people think Tennessee will roll in this spot.  But i dont think its gonna be that easy and indy still has the best quarterback in football.  They are still fully capable of beating any team any day and this is as about as important a game for indy this season as they have had, whereas tennessee could drop this game and its not the end of the world.  To me this game seems like a coin flip and i see some good value getting +180, screw the spread, indy needs this game. 

orangeash-
Thats good info.  Thanks for the breakdown.

I just feel like, esp. in the NFL, lots of stat stuff doesn' t matter as much.  Not in any way trying to knock you for your analysis - we need the stat stuff to get our bearing.  I think the betting line should have taken all that into consideration. 

Every player in the NFL is a stud, and if you catch a team too smug or looking ahead or without full emotional investment in the upcoming game they will lose.  I feel that NFL is about who wants it more on that day.  (ind for example - they destroy Bal's D, and then get knocked around by GB's D). I think indy wants it more, they know their season will be done if they don' t win (wild card? hmmm...maybe).  Indy in desperation mode. but who knows, maybe Ten is going to match that intensity and blow indy up.

If Ten wins, it will be a passing of the baton, and that doesn't happen without a struggle from the former champions.

One thing I do like about Ten is that they score when they are suppose to (in the red zone).  Those field goals, can kill your cover!!

GLTA

Indy.

Not willing to give up more than four points. Monday night system play: Play on a divisional favorite of 7 or less after winning 2 straight games 25-8.

Manning should get a healthy dose of Haynesworth and Vanden Bosch. 

Plays:  1) Tenn -4 and 2) Tenn ml & under 40
          

 

I agree totally, the betting public has a short memory, the money will be on tthe titans tonight, manning and the colts will cover.

The under looks good too....

Large on the colts tonight for me.

GL

 

Vegas loves the our short-term memories. Indy blows baltimore and everyone jumps on Indy against GB. GB blows Indy and the majority (62%) is on Tennessee.

TN is carried by White and Johnson, but without a solid QB you just aren't a champion team regardless of how great your backs are (e.g. Minnesota).

You can use the "Tennesee has GREAT defense" bit, but it won't carry much weight: how did Indy fare against, Baltimore, who at the time was #1 in both pass AND rush D?

If any of you watched the GB/Indy game, you'll know that Dungy will have punished his team well this week for all the careless penalties (110 yards!) and 2 interceptions. I don't really like either team much in this game, but I would lean on Indy just because Peyton Manning is still Peyton Manning with a solid receiving corps and a bit healthier linemen.

Since ALL stats are generally leaning toward Titans - I'm taking
Indy +4

GLA

You should hit the Colts up for a job, you seem to know all about it!

Your missing one thing, you have to have the players that can handle it.

IMO...If the Houston & KC could be able put up 10 or 14 points againts Titans; I won't be any doubt that Mannings & company does it also!".

Colts  17
Titans 20 Final.

Note. This is homecoming for Manning - He graduated from Tenn. U.

If you havn't noticed..... they still have that same guy under center....

the public has pushed the ov and under down the public is almost always wrong I like the 40-41 points with peyton workin for me and the Tenn defense over big time!!

Here we go again. 

If you don't know my name by now then I guess I haven't posted enough winners for ya.  I've been kicking ass and taking names of late and tonight will be no different.  Yesterday I gave you Miami, Dallas, Philly and just about every game except for Oakland and Pittsburgh. 

Here's another one of those games for the homers.  How attractive is Tennessee looking at -4?  Pretty damn attractive.  They're undefeated and going up against the Colts who just are not the same team they were a few years ago.  I'm showing that the public is siding with the Titans, but not by much.  The line did move from -3.5 to -4.  I think this line will sit @ 4?  Maybe not.  Either way, when something looks easy to me, I get on the other side.  Colts got clobbered by the Pack on the road last week and Titans took care of business, again.  But this is a huge rival game.  Do we really expect to see the Titans end up in the same spot at the Pats last year?  Give me a break.  It's time for the Titans to lose.  This line is a couple points lower than it should be.  I think odds makers not only take into consideration that this is a big rival game and should be close, but they take into consideration that fact that indy will win.  I've always been a firm believer that Vegas knows.  Tonight, they know what's up.

This game isn't as sweet as the Browns a couple weeks ago on MNF, but it's not bad either. 

Take Colts +4 for a LARGE sized play
Take Colts ML for a SMALL play

*I also have Colts at +11 in a small 7 point teaser I did with the Eagles*