Quote Originally Posted by Sammy_Ace:
That is a good point. Why should a 4-7 team be laying 4.5 points against a 7-4 team?
I think thats because the Lions have been major underachievers this year, and the Colts have been quite the opposite. I am not sure where the public will be in this matchup, but I would guess they would back the underdog Colts. The playoff bound Colts have to be one of the league's most uplifting stories this season, and its hard to root against them. But I like the Lions in this situation for a couple simple reasons.
First, I love that the Colts are playing for Coach Pagano, and I think Andrew Luck is a really special talent. I think when the story is written, he will have one of those legendary careers. But I always try to remind people that he is still a rookie thats playing on a team that was 1-15 last season. What he has already accomplished is truly remarkable. Especially when you consider that even the great Peyton Manning was 3-13 as a rookie starter.
One of the trends I've noticed is that this team struggles on the road. Lets take a look at how the Colts and Luck have fared on the road this season:
Wk 1 Lost to CHI 21-41; 23/45, 309 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT
Wk 6 Lost to NYJ 9-35; 22/44, 280 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
Wk 8 Win over TEN 19-13; 26/38 297 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Wk 10 Win over JAX 27-10; 18/26, 227 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
Wk 11 Lost to PATS 59-24; 27/50, 334 yds, 2 TD, 3 INT
So on the road, Luck is completing 57% of his passes and has thrown 4 TDs and 10 INTs. The young talent has thrown atleast 1 interception in every road game this year. And if you notice, their two wins have come against some of the bottom feeders of the AFC in the Titans and Jags (pre-Henne).
The Colts also sport the 19th ranked defense in the league and will try to contain a very hungry and desperate Detroit team that has lost their last 3 games, 2 of them being at home against the Pack and Texans. And for anyone that watched those last 2, knows Detroit had both those games won. I expect an angry and well rested team (they played on Turkey day) to take care of business and finally give the Detroit faithful a drama free win at Ford Field this Sunday. Especially after losing 2 consecutive home games. It's not too often an NFL team drops 3 consecutive home games (especially a team with a potent offense like Detroit).
I also can't help but notice Stafford's career numbers vs the AFC. In the last 3 seasons, Stafford has played an AFC opponent 8 times, and in those games he has a QBR of 98.8, completing 63% of his passes, throwing for an average of 315 yards a game, and has 19 TDs with only 1 INT!! That is really freaking impressive. I don't think he will be outdone by the young rookie this Sunday, who is still figuring out how to win on the road.
DETROIT in a comfortable win.
Brilliant write up. Sammy makes it so I don't have to type up so much reasons for my pick, haha. I don't even look at a team's record in a game where 2 teams know nothing about each other. I simply go with what I know. And what I know is exactly what Sammy has pointed out: Colts suck on the road. I will never forget the way they performed in New Jersey while Jets made them look like a bunch of scrubs. Lions are well-rested and have a potent offense that should be able to rack up a bunch of points against this Colts defense.
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