Posted:
#151
Quote Originally Posted by JamesPants:
Thanks i am going DEN ML/under...
Holla
Thanks i am going DEN ML/under...
Holla
Don't do it Grady, because Bill will show no mercy tonight. 
Denver at New England (10/20/2008)
Posted:
#152
My 
will only get bigger as the game goes on b/c this axiom holds true so, so often: When you think all the trends point one direction, that's the time to reevaluate and go the other way. Denver doesn't play any D?? I promise, they'll show up tonight. Points aplenty on MNF every week? We come back down to Earth a little tonight with a reasonable score.
will only get bigger as the game goes on b/c this axiom holds true so, so often: When you think all the trends point one direction, that's the time to reevaluate and go the other way. Denver doesn't play any D?? I promise, they'll show up tonight. Points aplenty on MNF every week? We come back down to Earth a little tonight with a reasonable score. Oh, and the comparisons to Cleveland don't make sense because ONCE AGAIN, let's compare apples to apples. Cleveland's QB actually started his college career and is a proven NFL starter so for a team laden with talent to actually come out and perform wasn't a shock - I had Cleveland as well. But Cassell? This is the piece of the puzzle everyone's overlooking; this is the first time he's been the guy IN YEARS!!!! So... no game plan or coaching can so dramatically change the way he sees the game and reacts to variances in coverage, blitz packages, etc. that can possibly mask the fact that he is not yet a competent NFL starter. Belichick can't mask all his inadequacies unless his game plan goes perfect on both sides of the ball - does that seem like the most likely outcome?
And the comments about NE absolutely not losing 2 in a row b/c they just won't let that happen? What, does Denver want to lose. News for ya: They (or any other team) don't give 2 sh*ts about who NE's coach is, what their rep is, etc.; if anything, these other teams are tired of hearing about it and are more fired up to take it to them.
Boston gonna eat sh*t for the 2nd night in a row as their golden boys of the gridiron go down right after the Sox got eliminated. This storyline continues to play out - the Pats time is over and its time for new blood in that division, in the NFL
Posted:
#155
good luck Efelson76, it appears we're on completely opposite sides tonight. It sounds like you've talked yourself in to your bet a little too much though, I wouldn't play Denver too large. The public is hardly ever left grinning at the end of a primetime game.
BOL
to all, and i'll post my plays as soon as my book gives me the lines.
Posted:
#158
Thanks Fading The Public - classy reply GL to you as well. I will say this: I never talk myself into any play; I only play what makes sense, what the numbers tell me, and what my "gut" says. If I have to convince myself, that's when I know it is a no-play.
GL to you as well. I will say this: I never talk myself into any play; I only play what makes sense, what the numbers tell me, and what my "gut" says. If I have to convince myself, that's when I know it is a no-play.All that said, I could be completely off tonight - wouldn't be the first time. If I was right all the time, it wouldn't be gambling and I wouldn't have a regular job...... I find myself on the right side more often than not and trusty my instincts but who knows?
Posted:
#159
Quote Originally Posted by wasabitobiko:
You MUST be crazy. Cutler is a pocket passer. Plummer was a mobil QB.. Cutler has a rocket for an arm. Plummer, not so much.
You MUST be crazy. Cutler is a pocket passer. Plummer was a mobil QB.. Cutler has a rocket for an arm. Plummer, not so much.ok guyyyyyyyyyy...... Cutler's strength is rolling out of the pocket an throwing the ball downfield.... I won't argue that Plummer's arm wasn't like cutlers, or that Plummer was more of a mobile qb, but there are def similiarities....
Posted:
#160
Denver (4-2, 2-4 ATS) at New England (3-2, 2-3 ATS)
Two perennial AFC powers square off at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass., when the Broncos take on the Patriots with both teams in need of a victory.
Both squads have lost two of their last three games, with the Patriots falling 30-10 last Sunday night in San Diego as a six-point underdog, while the Broncos were losing 24-17 to the Jaguars as a 3½-point home chalk. Denver is mired in an 0-4 ATS slide, while the Patriots have alternated spread-covers this season.
Denver is putting up 27.7 points and nearly 400 total yards per contest, but it’s been the defense that has dropped the ball for Mike Shanahan’s team, giving up 25.7 points and 394.7 yards per outing. Third-year QB Jay Cutler has put up impressive numbers through six games, with 1,693 passing yards, 12 TDs and five INTs.
Bill Belichick’s defense has given up 89 points in its last three games, including 38 to Miami the last time the Pats were in Foxborough, the result being a 38-13 loss as 12½-point favorites. And without reigning league MVP Tom Brady, New England’s offense isn’t exactly lighting up the scoreboard like last season, averaging just 17.8 points and 298 yards per game. QB Matt Cassel has been very shaky in place of Brady, averaging 182 passing ypg with three TDs and four INTs through six contests.
Denver has owned this rivalry lately, winning five of the last six meetings SU and ATS dating back to 2001, including taking the last three by at least eight points. The last time these two met was two seasons ago in New England, when the Broncos earned a 17-7 victory as 6½-point road ‘dogs. Going back to 1997, the Broncos are 7-3 SU and ATS against the Pats, and the straight-up winner is 9-1 ATS in those 10 clashes.
Denver is 6-20 SU and 9-16-1 ATS on the road in the Monday night spotlight, while the Patriots are 6-8 SU and 5-8-1 ATS at home.
The Broncos are on ATS slides of 7-22-1 overall, 1-5 on the highway 3-11 against teams with a winning record, 1-5 in October and 1-4-1 against AFC competition. Conversely, the Patriots are 15-4-1 ATS in their last 20 after a straight-up defeat and 18-5-1 ATS in their last 24 October outings, but they are on pointspread slides of 2-9 overall, 0-7 at Gillette Stadium, and 2-6 following a non-cover.
The under is 5-2 the last seven times Denver has been on Monday night, but otherwise the Broncos sport “over” streaks of 20-6-1 overall, 7-2 on the road, 12-3 against the AFC, 7-3-1 against teams with a winning record and 10-2-1 following a straight-up loss. On the flip side, New England is on “under” runs of 8-3-1 overall, 6-1-1 at home, 7-1-1 against the AFC and 4-1 following a non-cover.
In head-to-head action between these teams, the over is 7-3 in the last 10 battles overall, but the under has been the play in four of the last five meetings in New England.
Finally, the over is a perfect 7-0 on Monday nights this season.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER
Posted:
#161
Quote Originally Posted by jetsmets84:
ive never seen so much mis-informed information in my life..one guy said The spread is prob denver +3 due to the loss to KC last week..they actually lost last week against JAX.. The phrase
" HOME DOGS" shouldnt even be mentioned in this thread because Denver is not home. And I understand the logic of traveling but DENVER is NOT on the WEST COAST, its only about a 3 hour flight compared to a 6 hour flight (its the same travel time as when they flew into Oakland week 1 and handled them easily 41-14)...that said here is a brief analysis of the game
Denver is averaging 27 points a game
Patriots averaging 17
Pats let up 38 points against the 10th ranked offense(in ypg) Miami in Foxboro
Pats let up 21 points to SAN FRAN(23 ranked offense (YPG)
Pats let up 30 points to San Diego( 15th ranked off in ypg)
Denver is the 2nd ranked offense in the leauge ypg and 6th in scoring. Pats defense has not seen an offense as good as Denver all year..
On the other hand Denver has only kept 2 teams under 24 points( oakland in week 1..and Tampa Bay in week 5)
i would say over is a good bet but if you are able to i would bet on Denver team Total over 23
also dont let the 21 points a game allowed on defense for the patriots to sway this decision. they let up 10 points the first 2 games of the season to the chiefs who have the 29th ranked offense and to the jets who in week 2 were still just getting to know their new QB Brett Farve...since those 2 games against horrible offenses they have allowed 29.7 points a game to less than mediocre offenses (with the exception of san diego)
the play is DENVER team total over 23
I dont' know if you were referring to me with the KC thing but I didn't say it was last week...
I'm just saying the last game Denver had on the road they lost to KC.... that could be why they are getting points.... if this game was in MILE HIGH.... DIFFERENT SPREAD.... on paper I don't see Pats winning the game let alone covering, but that's why you play the game....
I do agree with your pick 100%
DENVER +3 OVER 48
Posted:
#162
Let’s get the obvious out of the way first: Every single Monday Night Football game this season has gone over the total – all seven of them. In fact, five of the seven have featured 49 combined points or more, and not one Monday night game this season has had fewer than 43 points. So just based on that alone, the over is a must play here.
But we’ve also got two very shaky defenses on the field in New England. The Broncos are yielding 25.7 points and 394.7 total yards per game, and the Pats aren’t much better, giving up 21.8 points and 320.8 total yards per game, including 29.7 points 354.7 ypg in the last three outings.
And while Denver rates a big edge in offense, averaging 10 more points and 100 more yards per game than the Patriots, it’s important to note that the last time New England faced this bad of a defense, it put up season highs of 30 points and 377 total yards at San Francisco in a game the Pats won 30-21 (over the total).
Finally, the over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between these teams, and the over is 20-6-1 in Denver’s last 27 games overall, 7-2 in its last nine on the road and 5-1 in New England’s last six games in October. Gonna be another Monday night shootout, folks. Play it OVER the total.
(based on a 1? to 10? basis)
4? Broncos-Patriots OVER the total
Posted:
#165
Broncos +3 (2.1 units to win 2) vs. Patriots -
had a good weekend, just basically playing a hunch here. Watch out for
Brandon Marshall tonight, I expect him to explode in the spotlight of
MNF. The Patriots offense has struggled lately, and the Denver defense
is very inconsistent. The opposite also holds true for the Denver
offense (explosive) and Patriots defense (implosive). This should be a
back and forth game, whether its points, punts, or turnovers.
Posted:
#172
HOME TEAM has yet to win this year on MNF...
gotta go DENVER, especially with the weak secondary of the PATRIOTS(but why hasnt this line changed and why are the Pats favored??)anyone got a clue on that?
DENVER +3
now, the under has yet to hit also, but I dont see the pats scoring that much with DENVER SECONDARY... Pats have to go 70/30 run game tonight in order for Cassel to be able to complete some passes, but their O-line is awful as well, and Sammy Morris is just not a #1 RB in this league. So a lot of time management from the Pats to keep Cutler offf the field(and a healthy Eddie Royal which will open up passes to Marshall), which makes me think the over trend is coming to a stop...maybe not, but thats just a gut feeling...(small play on under)
GL to ALL
My prediction:
DENVER 24
PATS 17
Hot Forum Topics
