Good idea but just a bit misplaced.... MNF teams travel early to assimilate. Additionally, this is a night game so the time change typically has little effect on the team travelling. I think you are thinking of this stat: This year (2008) in the NFL, teams travelling from the Mountain or Pacific time zones and playing 1:00 EST are 0-12 SU and (I believe) are also 0-12 ATS. But this only applies in this situation, not all teams travelling across the country.
Good luck tonight!
Quote Originally Posted by diorted:
don't forget denver going to the east coast!!!
Good idea but just a bit misplaced.... MNF teams travel early to assimilate. Additionally, this is a night game so the time change typically has little effect on the team travelling. I think you are thinking of this stat: This year (2008) in the NFL, teams travelling from the Mountain or Pacific time zones and playing 1:00 EST are 0-12 SU and (I believe) are also 0-12 ATS. But this only applies in this situation, not all teams travelling across the country.
It posts like these that make me want to take New England.
His heart's in the right place; its just enthusiasm without proper respect for the gambling gods who never like to hear absolute words like "always, never, absolutely cannot, lock of the day/week/month/year, etc, etc etc". Yes, I am superstitious
W/that - still like the Broncos!
Quote Originally Posted by Fpronk:
It posts like these that make me want to take New England.
His heart's in the right place; its just enthusiasm without proper respect for the gambling gods who never like to hear absolute words like "always, never, absolutely cannot, lock of the day/week/month/year, etc, etc etc". Yes, I am superstitious
but then the JETS lost and TAMPA BAY didn't cover by a half a point... I GOT KILLED AT 4.... it was looking so nice, and then BOOM the BACKDOOR COVER......
SO i'm going aggressive tonight.......
Denver In the OVER....
I think the only reason Denver is getting points is because they lost to KC on the road..... but you have to remember that's a rivalry game, and KC is hard to play in.... and they fumbled like 23423 times......
I would never take the UNDER on a MNF game.... its either OVER or no bet....
My logic is that Denver offense is def gonna put up points... and I'm counting on the Denver defense to let up points....
by the way ROYAL is back and stokley is out.... Pittman is starting RB....
I WAS DOING SO WELL YESTERDAY....
but then the JETS lost and TAMPA BAY didn't cover by a half a point... I GOT KILLED AT 4.... it was looking so nice, and then BOOM the BACKDOOR COVER......
SO i'm going aggressive tonight.......
Denver In the OVER....
I think the only reason Denver is getting points is because they lost to KC on the road..... but you have to remember that's a rivalry game, and KC is hard to play in.... and they fumbled like 23423 times......
I would never take the UNDER on a MNF game.... its either OVER or no bet....
My logic is that Denver offense is def gonna put up points... and I'm counting on the Denver defense to let up points....
by the way ROYAL is back and stokley is out.... Pittman is starting RB....
Anyone on the over solely on the sake of "Well, its 5-0 so far this year", please give me some insight as to how this happens. What's your predicted final score, how many points do you REALISTICALLY see the Pats scoring. Additionally, for those who have the Pats -3 AND the over, do you like the chances of the Pats winning a shootout? Maybe (though I just don't see it happening) I could see the Pats -3 but, IF, IF, IF..... the Pats win, they have to control the clock with the short passing game and running game while placing emphasis on conrolling the game through field position. They are not designed for a shootout without Brady so IF, IF, IF the Pats win and cover, you are probably looking at a 21/24 - 17/20 final with the Pats executing a perfectly executed game plan and playing their best D of the year against a team with explosive offensive players. Just think about it.....
Anyone on the over solely on the sake of "Well, its 5-0 so far this year", please give me some insight as to how this happens. What's your predicted final score, how many points do you REALISTICALLY see the Pats scoring. Additionally, for those who have the Pats -3 AND the over, do you like the chances of the Pats winning a shootout? Maybe (though I just don't see it happening) I could see the Pats -3 but, IF, IF, IF..... the Pats win, they have to control the clock with the short passing game and running game while placing emphasis on conrolling the game through field position. They are not designed for a shootout without Brady so IF, IF, IF the Pats win and cover, you are probably looking at a 21/24 - 17/20 final with the Pats executing a perfectly executed game plan and playing their best D of the year against a team with explosive offensive players. Just think about it.....
Anyone on the over solely on the sake of "Well, its 5-0 so far this year", please give me some insight as to how this happens. What's your predicted final score, how many points do you REALISTICALLY see the Pats scoring. Additionally, for those who have the Pats -3 AND the over, do you like the chances of the Pats winning a shootout? Maybe (though I just don't see it happening) I could see the Pats -3 but, IF, IF, IF..... the Pats win, they have to control the clock with the short passing game and running game while placing emphasis on conrolling the game through field position. They are not designed for a shootout without Brady so IF, IF, IF the Pats win and cover, you are probably looking at a 21/24 - 17/20 final with the Pats executing a perfectly executed game plan and playing their best D of the year against a team with explosive offensive players. Just think about it.....
I see what your saying.... but this is MNF...... things that are supposed to happen don't...... the gameplan that is set out there can change with a kickoff return for a touchdown.... or a fumble while driving on the opp 4 yardline.... this is football, the most unpredictable circumstances are on MNF...... I am following the trend because this trend shows that the books have been wrong 100% of the time this year on MNF.... the O/U should have been higher for all 6 weeks..... so its a loophole, its an error by vegas, and it hit for me last year as well............
The way I look at it is, when everything is said and done, I'd rather rely on Cutler driving in the 4th quarter than Cassel....
AND I believe the Denver Defense will let up points.....
I see the PATS scoring 20 points...... Thats 5 points less than the DENVER DEFENSIVE AVERAGE and 14 points LOWER than what KC did to them the last time they were on the road....
I see the Broncos putting up 30 and Shanahan sticking it to Belicheck when he goes for it on 4th and 1..........
Quote Originally Posted by Efelson76:
Anyone on the over solely on the sake of "Well, its 5-0 so far this year", please give me some insight as to how this happens. What's your predicted final score, how many points do you REALISTICALLY see the Pats scoring. Additionally, for those who have the Pats -3 AND the over, do you like the chances of the Pats winning a shootout? Maybe (though I just don't see it happening) I could see the Pats -3 but, IF, IF, IF..... the Pats win, they have to control the clock with the short passing game and running game while placing emphasis on conrolling the game through field position. They are not designed for a shootout without Brady so IF, IF, IF the Pats win and cover, you are probably looking at a 21/24 - 17/20 final with the Pats executing a perfectly executed game plan and playing their best D of the year against a team with explosive offensive players. Just think about it.....
I see what your saying.... but this is MNF...... things that are supposed to happen don't...... the gameplan that is set out there can change with a kickoff return for a touchdown.... or a fumble while driving on the opp 4 yardline.... this is football, the most unpredictable circumstances are on MNF...... I am following the trend because this trend shows that the books have been wrong 100% of the time this year on MNF.... the O/U should have been higher for all 6 weeks..... so its a loophole, its an error by vegas, and it hit for me last year as well............
The way I look at it is, when everything is said and done, I'd rather rely on Cutler driving in the 4th quarter than Cassel....
AND I believe the Denver Defense will let up points.....
I see the PATS scoring 20 points...... Thats 5 points less than the DENVER DEFENSIVE AVERAGE and 14 points LOWER than what KC did to them the last time they were on the road....
I see the Broncos putting up 30 and Shanahan sticking it to Belicheck when he goes for it on 4th and 1..........
Break - that Jets game sucked; I almost pulled the trigger on it but was spooked the more I looked @ that weird line. I won on that Bucs game b/c I had it in a 6 pt teaser with the under - pretty easy play there. I crushed @ 4pm except for the fu**ing Colts who decided to use the Mission Impossible make-up artist and disguise Ryan Leaf for Payton Manning and completely sh*t the bed (2 INT returns for TD's?!?!?!).
Belichik will have enough of a gameplan to keep it reasonable through 1st quarter and a half; they'll do all they can to control clock and field position but won't be able to hold down Broncos playmakers esp. Marshall all night. I envision a 31-13 final w/a mid-4th qtr score providing the final dagger to the Pat's hearts.
I like your ballsy approach, just remember - chasing losses leads to bigger losses. I would rather take a few days, a week to make up for a few bad breaks than put myself in a hole b/c I break my routine to try and get it back too quick. Never forget: once you've won it, it's not free money, IT'S YOUR MONEY!!! Never be in a hurry to give it back, just use a steady approach.
Break - that Jets game sucked; I almost pulled the trigger on it but was spooked the more I looked @ that weird line. I won on that Bucs game b/c I had it in a 6 pt teaser with the under - pretty easy play there. I crushed @ 4pm except for the fu**ing Colts who decided to use the Mission Impossible make-up artist and disguise Ryan Leaf for Payton Manning and completely sh*t the bed (2 INT returns for TD's?!?!?!).
Belichik will have enough of a gameplan to keep it reasonable through 1st quarter and a half; they'll do all they can to control clock and field position but won't be able to hold down Broncos playmakers esp. Marshall all night. I envision a 31-13 final w/a mid-4th qtr score providing the final dagger to the Pat's hearts.
I like your ballsy approach, just remember - chasing losses leads to bigger losses. I would rather take a few days, a week to make up for a few bad breaks than put myself in a hole b/c I break my routine to try and get it back too quick. Never forget: once you've won it, it's not free money, IT'S YOUR MONEY!!! Never be in a hurry to give it back, just use a steady approach.
Break - that Jets game sucked; I almost pulled the trigger on it but was spooked the more I looked @ that weird line. I won on that Bucs game b/c I had it in a 6 pt teaser with the under - pretty easy play there. I crushed @ 4pm except for the fu**ing Colts who decided to use the Mission Impossible make-up artist and disguise Ryan Leaf for Payton Manning and completely sh*t the bed (2 INT returns for TD's?!?!?!).
Belichik will have enough of a gameplan to keep it reasonable through 1st quarter and a half; they'll do all they can to control clock and field position but won't be able to hold down Broncos playmakers esp. Marshall all night. I envision a 31-13 final w/a mid-4th qtr score providing the final dagger to the Pat's hearts.
I like your ballsy approach, just remember - chasing losses leads to bigger losses. I would rather take a few days, a week to make up for a few bad breaks than put myself in a hole b/c I break my routine to try and get it back too quick. Never forget: once you've won it, it's not free money, IT'S YOUR MONEY!!! Never be in a hurry to give it back, just use a steady approach.
haha yes but this is my best pick of the week....
Quote Originally Posted by Efelson76:
Break - that Jets game sucked; I almost pulled the trigger on it but was spooked the more I looked @ that weird line. I won on that Bucs game b/c I had it in a 6 pt teaser with the under - pretty easy play there. I crushed @ 4pm except for the fu**ing Colts who decided to use the Mission Impossible make-up artist and disguise Ryan Leaf for Payton Manning and completely sh*t the bed (2 INT returns for TD's?!?!?!).
Belichik will have enough of a gameplan to keep it reasonable through 1st quarter and a half; they'll do all they can to control clock and field position but won't be able to hold down Broncos playmakers esp. Marshall all night. I envision a 31-13 final w/a mid-4th qtr score providing the final dagger to the Pat's hearts.
I like your ballsy approach, just remember - chasing losses leads to bigger losses. I would rather take a few days, a week to make up for a few bad breaks than put myself in a hole b/c I break my routine to try and get it back too quick. Never forget: once you've won it, it's not free money, IT'S YOUR MONEY!!! Never be in a hurry to give it back, just use a steady approach.
Pretty funny - you and I see the game pretty similarly but I just see the Pats scoring about a touchdown less - that's the difference in everything. If the Broncos win, I don't care how b/c the way I'm putting in my plays, I'll still do fine even if I don't hit on the O/U. Seems like I may have had a little better weekend than you so I hope you hit 'em both and lay the pipe to the man!!
Do you like college too? Are you a complete degenerate like me and bet on sports year round or is your wagering limited to football?
Pretty funny - you and I see the game pretty similarly but I just see the Pats scoring about a touchdown less - that's the difference in everything. If the Broncos win, I don't care how b/c the way I'm putting in my plays, I'll still do fine even if I don't hit on the O/U. Seems like I may have had a little better weekend than you so I hope you hit 'em both and lay the pipe to the man!!
Do you like college too? Are you a complete degenerate like me and bet on sports year round or is your wagering limited to football?
Can't imagine trying to play fantasy football and effectively gamble on football @ the same time; I think my fu**ing head would explode or I'd kick my TV in (not sure which would happen 1st or if it would be simultaneous).
Over tonight seems like
Pats look like b/c Cassell and senior citizen refugee defense will be all night long
Can't imagine trying to play fantasy football and effectively gamble on football @ the same time; I think my fu**ing head would explode or I'd kick my TV in (not sure which would happen 1st or if it would be simultaneous).
Over tonight seems like
Pats look like b/c Cassell and senior citizen refugee defense will be all night long
Tennis? Wow! I don't know sh*t about it except my backhand sucks and my girlfriend was very patient this summer trying to teach me how to play. I just stick to the big 3 - football, basketball, baseball. I figure: I played all three (baseball into college for a short stint), have watched them my entire life, and understand them enough that making intelligent assessments is fairly easy. Unfortunately, all the logic in the world (like you alluded to earlier) cannot prevent odd occurences and unforseeable events. I've had a lot more success w/NCAAFB this year because I can see the developing trend with recruiting; this is making the playing field much more competitive yet the lines are still being set like they were 10-15+ years ago when youy didn't see half the top 10 lose EVERY weekend. Your are 100% right about last year and I got BUTT FU&*ED to the point I was questioning my sports and gambling acumen. This year I've been much more careful about picking my spots and, aside from that ridiculous 3-2 Auburn BS game, I've been on the money most weekends esp. w/my big plays.
Break -
Tennis? Wow! I don't know sh*t about it except my backhand sucks and my girlfriend was very patient this summer trying to teach me how to play. I just stick to the big 3 - football, basketball, baseball. I figure: I played all three (baseball into college for a short stint), have watched them my entire life, and understand them enough that making intelligent assessments is fairly easy. Unfortunately, all the logic in the world (like you alluded to earlier) cannot prevent odd occurences and unforseeable events. I've had a lot more success w/NCAAFB this year because I can see the developing trend with recruiting; this is making the playing field much more competitive yet the lines are still being set like they were 10-15+ years ago when youy didn't see half the top 10 lose EVERY weekend. Your are 100% right about last year and I got BUTT FU&*ED to the point I was questioning my sports and gambling acumen. This year I've been much more careful about picking my spots and, aside from that ridiculous 3-2 Auburn BS game, I've been on the money most weekends esp. w/my big plays.
Anyone on the over solely on the sake of "Well, its 5-0 so far this year", please give me some insight as to how this happens. What's your predicted final score, how many points do you REALISTICALLY see the Pats scoring. Additionally, for those who have the Pats -3 AND the over, do you like the chances of the Pats winning a shootout? Maybe (though I just don't see it happening) I could see the Pats -3 but, IF, IF, IF..... the Pats win, they have to control the clock with the short passing game and running game while placing emphasis on conrolling the game through field position. They are not designed for a shootout without Brady so IF, IF, IF the Pats win and cover, you are probably looking at a 21/24 - 17/20 final with the Pats executing a perfectly executed game plan and playing their best D of the year against a team with explosive offensive players. Just think about it.....
Matt Cassell is pretty much a high school QB
Quote Originally Posted by Efelson76:
Anyone on the over solely on the sake of "Well, its 5-0 so far this year", please give me some insight as to how this happens. What's your predicted final score, how many points do you REALISTICALLY see the Pats scoring. Additionally, for those who have the Pats -3 AND the over, do you like the chances of the Pats winning a shootout? Maybe (though I just don't see it happening) I could see the Pats -3 but, IF, IF, IF..... the Pats win, they have to control the clock with the short passing game and running game while placing emphasis on conrolling the game through field position. They are not designed for a shootout without Brady so IF, IF, IF the Pats win and cover, you are probably looking at a 21/24 - 17/20 final with the Pats executing a perfectly executed game plan and playing their best D of the year against a team with explosive offensive players. Just think about it.....
I like the Denver
Broncos in this game. The matchups don't favor New England at all.
Brandon Marshall is a beast and Eddie Royal is no joke. They are
going to rape New England secondary along with strong playcalling from
one of the best in the business Mr. Shanahan. Also on top of that Jay
Cutler is very on good playaction and throwing on the run. I just don't
trust any quaterback for New England other then Mr.Brady. He cover up
alot of weakness for his team and it is showing like a sore thumb. Also
Champ Bailey will contain Randy Moss from getting off and no running
game sounds like a bad day at the office for Mr.Belichick and
company. Also I notice the homedogs have been covering the last few
weeks.
First of all, Eddie Royal is not even going to be close to 100%.
And I guess you think this game is at Denver, well no...and Champ
Bailey will not be able to shutdown Randy the whole game because New
England will establish the running game as well as quick slants
especially to Wes Welker, which will in turn open it up for a few shots
deep for Randy. Royal, Stokely, and Scheffler are all banged up
and Cutler will focus on throwing to Marshall too much...look for Jay
to throw one or two picks in this one. New England -3 all day in
this one, sorry - fading the public and cashing in.
Quote Originally Posted by Coverpicker:
I like the Denver
Broncos in this game. The matchups don't favor New England at all.
Brandon Marshall is a beast and Eddie Royal is no joke. They are
going to rape New England secondary along with strong playcalling from
one of the best in the business Mr. Shanahan. Also on top of that Jay
Cutler is very on good playaction and throwing on the run. I just don't
trust any quaterback for New England other then Mr.Brady. He cover up
alot of weakness for his team and it is showing like a sore thumb. Also
Champ Bailey will contain Randy Moss from getting off and no running
game sounds like a bad day at the office for Mr.Belichick and
company. Also I notice the homedogs have been covering the last few
weeks.
First of all, Eddie Royal is not even going to be close to 100%.
And I guess you think this game is at Denver, well no...and Champ
Bailey will not be able to shutdown Randy the whole game because New
England will establish the running game as well as quick slants
especially to Wes Welker, which will in turn open it up for a few shots
deep for Randy. Royal, Stokely, and Scheffler are all banged up
and Cutler will focus on throwing to Marshall too much...look for Jay
to throw one or two picks in this one. New England -3 all day in
this one, sorry - fading the public and cashing in.
This is not going to be a shootout by any means. New England is
going to pound the running game and have Matt throw screens and
slants/short curls all game. New England will probably have 20
3rd downs in this game...but they will be 3rd and short. They
will try to sustain long clock chewing drives and keep Denver's offense
off the field. Sammy Morris will have a great game and I think
Wes Welker will have 10+ receptions for 100+ yards. Belichik is a
mastermind at producing a gameplan and now that Matt has a few games
under his belt, he can adjust it to be suitable for him. Crowd
will be up for this game and New England will cover...not in a shootout
fashion. Wish you all a great night and BOL
NoDogs-
This is not going to be a shootout by any means. New England is
going to pound the running game and have Matt throw screens and
slants/short curls all game. New England will probably have 20
3rd downs in this game...but they will be 3rd and short. They
will try to sustain long clock chewing drives and keep Denver's offense
off the field. Sammy Morris will have a great game and I think
Wes Welker will have 10+ receptions for 100+ yards. Belichik is a
mastermind at producing a gameplan and now that Matt has a few games
under his belt, he can adjust it to be suitable for him. Crowd
will be up for this game and New England will cover...not in a shootout
fashion. Wish you all a great night and BOL
they havn't played yet..... but Cutler's style is very similiar to Jake the Snake's.... who has ripped up the PATS D in the past.... they both roll out of the pocket.....
Mr. Shanahan seemed to think Cutler was better than Plummer last year....
but it was the also the Denver running game that always had success against the pats
they havn't played yet..... but Cutler's style is very similiar to Jake the Snake's.... who has ripped up the PATS D in the past.... they both roll out of the pocket.....
Mr. Shanahan seemed to think Cutler was better than Plummer last year....
but it was the also the Denver running game that always had success against the pats
This weekend I took Titans team points at 22.5 and steelers at 22.5. I laid off the bucs ream points at 24.5, but tonite im liking the broncos at 23.
3 TDS and a FG seem more than reasonable for the denver offense. I dont have any faith in pats secondary after watching rivers tear it up. I also took the Chargers team points on that one.
its 3 units on denver team points for me.
denver 23
This weekend I took Titans team points at 22.5 and steelers at 22.5. I laid off the bucs ream points at 24.5, but tonite im liking the broncos at 23.
3 TDS and a FG seem more than reasonable for the denver offense. I dont have any faith in pats secondary after watching rivers tear it up. I also took the Chargers team points on that one.
b/c Cassell and senior citizen refugee defense will be 
all night long
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