Quote Originally Posted by TheQuadYeah:
MGM - You answered your own question. This is one of those no brainers, right? Ravens -3.5? Awww c'mon man, easy money!!!! I can't believe the line is so low - it's like a gift from the Gods!!!!!
Every week there's at least one or two "head scratcher" games where you can't believe David beat Goliath, now M/L is a little brazen, but if the score winds up, hmmmm, I don't know, let's say 9-6, with the Ravens and all that "offense" scoring a lousy 3 field goals the whole game (I know, hard to believe, right?) wouldn't you be glad for 3.5???
Cowboys +3.5 - - and a small M/L????
MAYBE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Well I wish I would of answered my question.... lol I don't think the spread is wrong, odd, or headscratching. The books know what is going on, and they normally have Balt home games like this with a pretty low spread.
They know Dallas has a chance to do well off the bye week, and they also are aware of the ravens home winning streak being due for a loss. That is why nearly every single spread you see for a Baltimore game is low. They have all been "gifts" no brainers if you do the ML. Even though some didn't cover, the general rule is to go with the ML if the spread is 3 or less. Especially when the team is dominate at home, you don't want to risk a 50/50 cover when the ML is more guaranteed to win.
So, I'm always on Baltimore ML at home. It's never a good thing to miss out on a nice win streak for any team. But Baltimore is plowing through EVERYBODY at home...even the Patriots couldn't beat them. I certainly hope Dallas doesn't. But yeah I guess the real answer would be that the books are aware that Baltimore's time is coming. So every spread will be "Too low" for their home games I think in this anticipation. I would take advantage of every single one and go ML in a parlay until they lose. Even then, with things being streaky... I can't see Baltimore losing more than 2 in a row at home..,even if they do get a rare loss or two...unless there were some drastic changes. They have been consistent for a long time now.
However on the road, they are a completely different team. I never trust Baltimore on the road. And normally the spreads do give the games away, but also they can make you overthink it just as well. This is a classic example of overthinking because of a spread. Just check past spreads for Balt home games, they all (or mostly all) have been low against the mediocre teams. But they won every one of those games outright, so I don't see any reason in the world to stay away from a team this hot.
Baltimore ML is my pick for this game. Staying away from the spread altogether. While i think Dallas can cover, not going to take a risk betting against Baltimore at home. I wouldn't go TOO large though on Baltimore ML as their "loss" is coming sometime soon...we dont normally see teams this dominate in the NFL...or anywhere in pro sports. Even the patriots home win streak was snapped at 20 I believe last season by the Giants. This week could be a trap for Baltimore as well)
Free system- Now is around the time you can also start a little system betting against the home streak. So, you would take every one of Baltimore's opponents at home from now on, and take them ML and do a bit of a progression if you need to in order to win. Since all of them will be dogs surely, you may not even need to...and I can safely say Baltimore will probably lose one this season. They don't allow teams to just win 30 games in a row at home. It would be too easy to make money if they did in pro sports. So that's my opinion. I have no proof on that, but I like the system of waiting for a team to get on a huge win streak, then bet on the opponents money line. It's usually a lower quality team who beats the hot team too I noticed in pro sports.
...shame on me...shoulda known Balt is shaky on the road...Don't get me wrong the chiefs still stink...I wanna take the Ravs @ home this week -3.5 against an over-rated cowboys squad. Balt is pissed, but so is dallas getting embarrased a few Monday nights ago and comming off a bye..Therefore, I don't know who to take...all i can say is i cant take another pounding...I'm staying away from this game.
sense with Flacco again even if denied in the media.
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