Chicago at Detroit (12/05/2010)

Away:  Chicago [6-4-1 ATS]
Home:  Detroit [7-4 ATS]

Game Time: 1:00 PM
Stadium: Ford Field

Recent Meetings:
09/12/10 - DET 14 vs. CHI 19

Team Leaders:

Chicago:
Passing: Jay Cutler (2311)
Rushing: Matt Forte (684)
Receiving: Johnny Knox (740)

Detroit:
Passing: Shaun Hill (2206)
Rushing: Jahvid Best (390)
Receiving: Calvin Johnson (806)

More:
Live Odds
In-Depth Matchup Information
Consensus Betting Information

Wow, just 3.5 points? I thought it would open at like 6.5 or even 7. Another fishy line here - I'm staying away from this game

CHICAGO  - 3.5

Nothing fishy about the line, books know Chicago barely got by Detroit in week 1, on a questionable call at that, and think public will remember. The thing is this is a much improved Bears team and will want to dispel any lingering doubts about that game. I look for Bears to demolish Lions tightening their grip on the NFC Central.

Detroit starting 3rd string QB.  Bears strength is defense.  One rule I usually play by that cashes in very often.  When a 3rd string QB starts against a solid defense, I go against the QB.

In this case Stanton played pretty well in his only extended action of the year, and Lions covered in the loss to the Giants.  HOWEVER, Stanton did come off the bench to replace Hill in that game.  Meaning, the Giants did not gameplan all week for Stanton.  Huge difference.   Now the Bears know Stanton will start and can gameplan pressure, etc to magnify his weaknesses.  And with the line at -3.5...buying the half point and taking the Bears.

BTW...here's Stanton's 2009 totals (his only significant playing time before this year)...

QB Rating -   26.1

Completion % -   51%  (26 of 51)

Yards -  259

TDs -  0

INTs -  6  (INT every 8.5 passes)

Sacked -  5 times  (sack every 10 passes)

In every way do these stats tell me the 3rd string QB rule against a good defense is in play here.   Bears -3 (buying 1/2) large

Lions +2 1st half.

I like the Over 45    

I like Chi and the under

Chi 24- Det 9

 

I see the line has moved up to +5, but you know what? Cutler's still Cutler, and he's overdue for one of those 5 interception games where he also gets knocked down like 7 times, and sacked twice. Coming off of a high from the Eagles win, this is the perfect storm for one of those types of games.

LIONS

 - {money}

+ - {plus}

------------------------ - {line}

= - {equals}

 - {happy me}

 

just a small play though

While Detroit may mot win this here against Chicago...

bears -5

DET IS 9-56 ATS OFF A LOSS AT HOME THEY LOST TO THE PATS ON TURKEY DAY.STATS AND TRENDS FROM MARC LAWRENCE NFL PLAYBOOK 2006.

By the way, I did post this in the Auburn / S.C. thread well before that game kicked off.

PHEW!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Hahahahaha! 

Detroit/Chicago OVER 43

Line is at -5.5 now.  Still a very fishy line.  I see the bears winning by more that a td.  But bears could be on a let down.  on the other hand, 3rd string qb for detroit against bears D...  take the bears!

I woulda never guessed the Bears would have a better record than the Pack at this time of the season especially after that Giant game when they sacked Cutler about 20 times and they still lost to Seattle & Washington since then           - Lions could get it going one of these years and it looked as if it coulda been this one as they got screwed in what 3 early games? They have some pieces on offense although they are too banged up to hang against this D today -- Chicago -4.5

Marc Lawrence is picking the Detroit Lions in this matchup.  Uh, what the heck is going on?  I know most of his plays are based off of statistics and probability, but come Drew Stanton is starting.  

jay cutler may have his return today.the infamous sacks and INT throw. careful on the betting the bear today. D'Town ML may