Baltimore at Kansas City (10/07/2012)

Let's look at the Ravens first.  They're 3-1 so far this year and their only loss was to a pretty good looking Eagles team which is also 3-1.  The Raven's opponents have a combined record of 8-8 but 4 of those losses belong to the winless Browns which has played all high caliber teams so far this year so I don't blame them for their losses, also those losses were by no more than 10 points against anyone.  Cincinnati got spanked by the Ravens which helped prove that they can easily handle a probably overrated team.  I can't see why the Ravens can't spank KC also since their only win is against a seemingly lost Saints team with bad luck in overt time mind you and over some bad ref calls with the replacements.  

Now the Chiefs.  They got beat pretty convincingly against all of their opponents except for their single win against the 0-4 Saints.  All of KC's opponents have at .500+ record along with the Falcons perfect 4-0 record.  But honestly looking at KC's opponents, only one seems worth of saying that they are real contenders and that's clearly the Falcons.  So that is actually pretty deceiving if you look at the wins the Chargers and Bills have.  Their opponents just weren't great to begin with.  All KC really has is Jamal Charles which is beast but once Baltimore starts airing out after running the ball with Ray Rice, Charles will no longer be able to run since they'll be playing catchup the whole game.  Sadly in this day and age in the NFL, you can't run the ball against a team that can air it out much better than you can and has a defense that will pressure Cassel all night long.  So your only option really is Charles and they will HEAVILY rely on him to win this game.

So, with that being said, Ravens EASILY cover this game.  There's nothing, including emotion that says that KC has a chance unless the Ravens can't stop the run, which I believe that they will be able to contain.  I'm kinda sad about that statement since I have Charles on my fantasy team.  But I'd rather win my immediate bets than the small amount for my fantasy league.  

P.S.  Congrats to all the players who took SDST against UH today. I took the half and game and knew without a shadow of a doubt that they'd get smashed.  I'm betting against UH until the bookies finally realize how crappy they really are and increase the line even more.   That was money in the bank right from the get go!